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Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#321 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:32 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
tontoz wrote:Anyone else getting the feeling that Nate is just trolling at this point?

I think there is a lot of cognitive dissonance out there. This has been two different pandemics for the US Alpha and then Delta.

And the things that were true - aren't necessarily true any longer but once you set that thinking - it is hard to change tracks.

There was a lot of misinformation followed by disinformation out there last year. An example: it started with "kids don't get Covid", then "kids don't spread Covid". Well, Delta knocked that one down. You may have felt it was a disservice to close any school last year because who was going to get sick. No one right. Kids don't spread Covid. With Delta - well, damn - it doesn't hold.

Or last year with Alpha - it was just old people dying and going to the hospital. Now we have 1/2 of hospitalizations under 50 and 40% of those with no comorbidities. That is harder to put into a box from last year's notion.

And then there is long haulers. Take a multiple of the deaths and you have that number - it is not insignificant (although that is the only argument you can make to put it in a box).

And then you have this surge that is overwhelming our hospitals and killing folks that don't have Covid due to resource drains. This is a difficult one to put in a box and make go away since the vast majority of the hospitalizations are those that are unvaccinated.

It is hard to reconcile for some...

Basically you are wrong on the straw man arguments on all accounts.

I never said "kids don't get Covid". I say they rarely suffer from it, and I continue to post CDC data that proves my point.

I cede that Delta is spreading faster, but that doesn't concern me because I don't see any way out of these until everyone has already been infected. The end of Covid is not a function of time. It's a function of number infected. If we slow the rate of spread, it will merely take longer. We won't be actually saving lives (unless hospitals are overwhelmed, and I'm in favor of temporary social distancing restrictions in areas with overwhelmed hospitals).

Again, the higher rate of hospitalizations is not due to increase in severity, it's an increase in spread. The entire issue on whether or not healthy young people should be vaccinated is unrelated to spread. I'm assuming that they WILL get Covid sooner or later (or at least about 80% of them will). As long as their IFR is in the ballpark as the vaccine kill rate, then vaccines aren't such a great idea.

Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs, or people who can't smell or run a 7-minute mile for a bit longer than 6 weeks. The number of people who are truly suffering significant ill effects over the long term is extremely small.

I agree that hospital capacity is an issue. We briefly ran into trouble during the southern surge, but that has ebbed. (Amazing how that happened when there was no change in masking or vaccinations. It's almost like climate is the primary driver of surges, but I digress.) We don't have many hospital issues at the moment. We will run into trouble in the upcoming northern surge, but it won't be driven by young, healthy people. Perhaps we should stop firing nurses.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#322 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:34 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, still no deaths. The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

You keep shifting the goalposts.

Why do you only focus on myocarditis deaths rather than all vaccine-related deaths? VAERS reports 21 deaths among kids ages 6-17. And as I pointed out before, VAERS tends to underestimate significant side effects and significantly underestimate minor side effects. But let's take that number as it is.

So that is 21 deaths out of 12 million kids vaccinated, for a death rate of 1.75 per million. That's not very high, as I have consistently stated, but it's a non-zero risk. And it's a number very much in line with the Covid death rate for healthy kids who have contracted Covid.

Shifting the goal posts :lol:

I gave a large number of reasons that a parent would vaccinate. I understand if you don't want to vaccinate your kid.

I pointed out that you are not using VAERS for its intended purpose. If a kid got a vaccine and then was in a car accident and died - it would still be reported in VAERS. This is misinformation trending toward disinformation.

VAERS is not the source you should be using - I don't know how to make that any clearer.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#323 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:46 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, still no deaths. The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

You keep shifting the goalposts.

Why do you only focus on myocarditis deaths rather than all vaccine-related deaths? VAERS reports 21 deaths among kids ages 6-17. And as I pointed out before, VAERS tends to underestimate significant side effects and significantly underestimate minor side effects. But let's take that number as it is.

So that is 21 deaths out of 12 million kids vaccinated, for a death rate of 1.75 per million. That's not very high, as I have consistently stated, but it's a non-zero risk. And it's a number very much in line with the Covid death rate for healthy kids who have contracted Covid.

Shifting the goal posts :lol:

I gave a large number of reasons that a parent would vaccinate. I understand if you don't want to vaccinate your kid.

I pointed out that you are not using VAERS for its intended purpose. If a kid got a vaccine and then was in a car accident and died - it would still be reported in VAERS. This is misinformation trending toward disinformation.

VAERS is not the source you should be using - I don't know how to make that any clearer.

It's the only source available that captures a large enough sample size to produce meaningful results. And we know VAERS tends to underestimate side-effects with most other vaccine rollouts.

The weak sample sizes of the FDA trials are useless for a virus that kills 1-2 out of a million healthy kids.

I agree that deaths are a difficult metric because the total death rate, for either Covid or the vaccine, is extremely small and sample size issues come into play. That's why I compared hospitalizations. And even if you assume greater hospitalizations under Delta, it's not greater hospitalizations on a per infection basis, it is merely the result of more kids being infected, which has to happen anyway. And the total hospitalization rate is less than the best data we have for the vaccine hospitalization rate.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#324 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:51 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
tontoz wrote:Anyone else getting the feeling that Nate is just trolling at this point?

I think there is a lot of cognitive dissonance out there. This has been two different pandemics for the US Alpha and then Delta.

And the things that were true - aren't necessarily true any longer but once you set that thinking - it is hard to change tracks.

There was a lot of misinformation followed by disinformation out there last year. An example: it started with "kids don't get Covid", then "kids don't spread Covid". Well, Delta knocked that one down. You may have felt it was a disservice to close any school last year because who was going to get sick. No one right. Kids don't spread Covid. With Delta - well, damn - it doesn't hold.

Or last year with Alpha - it was just old people dying and going to the hospital. Now we have 1/2 of hospitalizations under 50 and 40% of those with no comorbidities. That is harder to put into a box from last year's notion.

And then there is long haulers. Take a multiple of the deaths and you have that number - it is not insignificant (although that is the only argument you can make to put it in a box).

And then you have this surge that is overwhelming our hospitals and killing folks that don't have Covid due to resource drains. This is a difficult one to put in a box and make go away since the vast majority of the hospitalizations are those that are unvaccinated.

It is hard to reconcile for some...

Basically you are wrong on the straw man arguments on all accounts.

I never said "kids don't get Covid". I say they rarely suffer from it, and I continue to post CDC data that proves my point.

I cede that Delta is spreading faster, but that doesn't concern me because I don't see any way out of these until everyone has already been infected. The end of Covid is not a function of time. It's a function of number infected. If we slow the rate of spread, it will merely take longer. We won't be actually saving lives (unless hospitals are overwhelmed, and I'm in favor of temporary social distancing restrictions in areas with overwhelmed hospitals).

Again, the higher rate of hospitalizations is note due to increase in severity, it's an increase in spread. The entire issue on whether or not healthy young people should be vaccinated is not based on spread. I'm assuming that they WILL get Covid sooner or later (or at least about 80% of them will). As long as their IFR is in the ballpark as the vaccine kill rate, then vaccines aren't such a great idea.

Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs, or people who can't smell or run a 7-minute mile for a bit longer than 6 weeks. The number of people who are truly suffering significant ill effects over the long term is extremely small.

I agree that hospital capacity is an issue. We briefly ran into trouble during the southern surge, but that has ebbed. (Amazing how that happened when there was no change in masking or vaccinations. It's almost like climate is the primary driver of surges, but I digress.) We don't have many hospital issues at the moment. We will run into trouble in the upcoming northern surge, but it won't be driven by young, healthy people. Perhaps we should stop firing nurses.

I didn't say "you", I was pointing to the genesis of where the argument(s) started. And why it has been hard for some to shift gears. Do you understand the example to make that point. This was in the crazysphere for a long time. 1) Kids can't get Covid; oh wait, 2) Kids can't spread Covid; oh wait, 3) Schools don't spread Covid any more than... oh, wait. NOTE: I don't think we should close in person learning but damn if we shouldn't mitigate especially during times of large communal outbreak.

And no, we are out of this when everyone has had Covid OR is vaccinated. And of course we save lives (excess deaths) when we slow the spread - when hospitals are overwhelmed their standard of care falls for ALL - that increases the number of deaths (and not just of the unvaccinated). And we are still way up there - why - those that didn't get vaccinated. Full Stop.

And the higher rate of spread is due to the R value of Delta. Which is MUCH lower if you are vaccinated - a point you don't seem to want to embrace.

"Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs" - unbelievable. I will restrain from a personal attack since you clearly know no one that has had long haulers. But this is just a head in the sand take. :nonono:

"Perhaps we should stop firing nurses" is another asinine take that I see out there and debunked often. A very, very small number as a percentage have been dismissed. It has been mostly other staff that have been dismissed. Guess what, those same hospital systems that require vaccinations are have a "less" hard time hiring.

I get it - you can't shift gears, Alpha vs. Delta. You are good with the unvaccinated f'ing up our hospitals. My take is your posts are clear, you are saying - "I don't give a flying f about anyone else, it's all about me and mine". And this tracks with how the US has done with Covid.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#325 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:52 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:VAERS is not the source you should be using - I don't know how to make that any clearer.

It's the only source available that captures a large enough sample size to produce meaningful results.

It doesn't matter - it doesn't have the detail to pull any meaningful information. It was meant as a source for researchers to then go dig into the data and follow-up on each of the cases. Sigh.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#326 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:05 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
And no, we are out of this when everyone has had Covid OR is vaccinated. And of course we save lives (excess deaths) when we slow the spread - when hospitals are overwhelmed their standard of care falls for ALL - that increases the number of deaths (and not just of the unvaccinated). And we are still way up there - why - those that didn't get vaccinated. Full Stop.

No. Vaccination does not stop it. Vaccination once it's 4 months old, barely even puts a dent in the rate of spread. It only mitigates symptoms, which is certainly a good thing.

And the higher rate of spread is due to the R value of Delta. Which is MUCH lower if you are vaccinated - a point you don't seem to want to embrace.

No. As I just said, vaccination isn't slowing the rate of spread. The vaccinated are asymptomatic superspreaders. This is why every country that vaccinated early is now running into problems, and we will start having major issues in a month or so. Check out this study from a prison in Texas. 100% of unvaccinated contracted it, but so did 78% of the vaccinated (I'm ignoring the ones with previous SARS-COV-2 infection). If the protection from infection is that small, it is almost surely being offset by the vaccinated being unlikely to quarantine themselves because they are unaware that they are sick.

"Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs" - unbelievable. I will restrain from a personal attack since you clearly know no one that has had long haulers. But this is just a head in the sand take. :nonono:

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/long-covid-uncommon-in-children

I get it - you can't shift gears, Alpha vs. Delta. You are good with the unvaccinated f'ing up our hospitals. My take is your posts are clear, you are saying - "I don't give a flying f about anyone else, it's all about me and mine". And this tracks with how the US has done with Covid.

As I keep saying, and proving statistically, the unvaccinated that are f'ing up our hospitals are old, unhealthy people. I recommend they get vaccinated too. But young healthy people, particularly children, are not responsible for the bulk of hospitalizations.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#327 » by tontoz » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:07 pm

- Nate posts a link to a story from Microbial Instincts (a site i have never heard of but appears credible) talking about VAERS reporting for old vaccines (decades old in the case of polio) and expects us to conclude that incidents of Covid vaccine side effects are also being underreported. Pretty big reach given that the entire country is focusing on the current vaccines.

- When i post a story from that same site from 2 days ago which concludes the benefits of the mRNA vaccines outweigh the risks for young people what is Nate's response?

***crickets***
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#328 » by tontoz » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:15 pm

About that prison study from Texas:

Three of the four hospitalizations and the only death occurred in unvaccinated persons. These findings are consistent with a previous study in which vaccination with a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) reduced the risk for hospitalization associated with Delta variant infection (6). These findings reinforce the critical importance of vaccination in reducing risk for severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections, particularly in congregate settings.


Keep in mind that 179 out of vaccinated got the virus with only 1 hospitalization. There were only 42 unvaccinated and 39 got the virus, 3 were hospitalized and 1 died.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#329 » by tontoz » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:20 pm

Tampa General’s recent Covid-19 patients in intensive care were 46 years old on average, far below the average during prior surges when vulnerable seniors were often hospitalized, Dr. Duggan said. The hospital’s death rate for Covid-19 patients hasn’t changed, sticking around 7%.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-deaths-in-delta-surge-hit-younger-unvaccinated-people-11631525400
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#330 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:27 pm

tontoz wrote:About that prison study from Texas:

Three of the four hospitalizations and the only death occurred in unvaccinated persons. These findings are consistent with a previous study in which vaccination with a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) reduced the risk for hospitalization associated with Delta variant infection (6). These findings reinforce the critical importance of vaccination in reducing risk for severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections, particularly in congregate settings.


Keep in mind that 179 out of vaccinated got the virus with only 1 hospitalization. There were only 42 unvaccinated and 39 got the virus, 3 were hospitalized and 1 died.

Yes. I agree. Vaccinations are good. They absolutely reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.

They're just not necessary for population groups that are already at extremely low risk of hospitalization and death.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#331 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:29 pm

tontoz wrote:- Nate posts a link to a story from Microbial Instincts (a site i have never heard of but appears credible) talking about VAERS reporting for old vaccines (decades old in the case of polio) and expects us to conclude that incidents of Covid vaccine side effects are also being underreported. Pretty big reach given that the entire country is focusing on the current vaccines.

- When i post a story from that same site from 2 days ago which concludes the benefits of the mRNA vaccines outweigh the risks for young people what is Nate's response?

***crickets***

That article you posted only compared the risk of vaccine-induced myocarditis. Not all potential side effects from the vaccine. That's why I've been using total hospitalizations.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#332 » by tontoz » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:36 pm

nate33 wrote:
tontoz wrote:- Nate posts a link to a story from Microbial Instincts (a site i have never heard of but appears credible) talking about VAERS reporting for old vaccines (decades old in the case of polio) and expects us to conclude that incidents of Covid vaccine side effects are also being underreported. Pretty big reach given that the entire country is focusing on the current vaccines.

- When i post a story from that same site from 2 days ago which concludes the benefits of the mRNA vaccines outweigh the risks for young people what is Nate's response?

***crickets***

That article you posted only compared the risk of vaccine-induced myocarditis. Not all potential side effects from the vaccine. That's why I've been using total hospitalizations.


The other side effects have shown to be relatively mild other than allergic reactions. It is the heart side effects that are potentially most significant.

But only myocarditis and pericarditis have been associated with mRNA vaccine.


And the source of your hospitalizations has a disclaimer for a reason. I could file a report to VAERS right now that the vaccine gave me a broken leg.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#333 » by dckingsfan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:25 pm

Perhaps a definition of terms: Once everyone has had Covid or a vaccine - hospitalizations and deaths drop off a cliff. That doesn't mean folks won't continue to get Covid, it just won't be as serious. From a public policy perspective we want folks to get the vaccine as that reduces the stress on our fragile healthcare system.

The unvaccinated under 50 with no comorbidities are also clobbering our healthcare system. Straw - Camel - Back.

But this too shall pass - just with a bunch of excess deaths.

Caveat: a new sneakier variant could keep us from moving on.

==========

It's true, the vaccinated aren't stopping the spread of Covid. But... they reduce the R value of Covid as the spread it for a shorter duration - posted earlier. Notwithstanding the preprint (not peer-reviewed) and too small a sample size to be meaningful and doesn't have any meaningful data on the R value of the two groups.

Long haulers is most certainly serious - not "Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs". Posted above says that long hauler's in children are 1 in 20 - that is a huge number. But that is out of context.

For Kids, it is all of the below, not one of:

1) The chances of getting Myocarditis is lower from the vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) than getting Covid itself.

2) There have not been a similar reports of myocarditis observed after receipt of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine - so a parent could go that way.

3) Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, still no deaths. The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

4) Long hauler probability is much lower with vaccine. Hospitalization rates are lower with the vaccine. Death is lower with the vaccine. Giving a classmate, teacher or school staff member Covid is lower with the vaccine.

Or as the ICU doc from Children's says, If you don't want to get your kid vaccinated - fine. Repreresenting that kids are more at risk from the vaccine - not so cool.

==========

And "Long haulers are mostly just hypochondriacs" is certainly not true in adults. It is wicked and unfortunate that it affects women in larger numbers. I guess that will play into the hypochondriac theme.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#334 » by tontoz » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:31 pm

NS California Four mothers who spoke openly about vaccines and masks died COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection)..

According to the GoFundMe page, Kristen Lowery, 40, from Escalon, California, died “unexpectedly” on September 15 after collecting funeral expenses.

In a screenshot taken from Facebook, the family says she lost the fight against COVID-19 — frequently posting content protesting the vaccine and saying to herself that she was “unmasked” and “a free thinker.” After labeling it.




https://californianewstimes.com/mother-of-four-who-was-unmasked-unmuzzled-and-unvaccainated-dies-of-covid-19-at-age-40/530141/


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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#335 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:22 pm

The scientists initially estimated the prevalence of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) or pericarditis (inflammation of the outer lining of the heart) based on 32 consecutive people admitted to the Heart Institute from June 1 through to the end of July 2021 with a suspected diagnosis of post-vaccination heart inflammation.

The authors calculated that, during the same study period, a total of 32,379 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were administered in the Ottawa area. “Therefore, if our cohort captured all cases in the Ottawa area, then the incidence of myocarditis would be 0.1 per cent of all vaccine doses,” or 10 cases of myocarditis for every 10,000 doses of vaccine, they wrote.

Except their denominator was wrong.


And...

Flawed papers and early release of data have ignited controversy and emboldened conspiracy theorists throughout the pandemic. “We keep blaming crackpots and ideological mouthpieces for spreading misinformation about COVID and about vaccines, and it’s a huge problem,” said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine. “But there have been a not-insignificant number of instances where mainstream science has gotten things wrong,” and which critics pick up on, instantly, Caplan said.


And...

A research letter published in JAMA involving 40 hospitals in Washington, Oregon, Montana and Los Angeles county and more than two million people who received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine estimated an incidence of one case of myocarditis in 100,000 vaccinations.


https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/university-of-ottawa-heart-institute-myocarditis-study

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#336 » by nate33 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:54 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
The scientists initially estimated the prevalence of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) or pericarditis (inflammation of the outer lining of the heart) based on 32 consecutive people admitted to the Heart Institute from June 1 through to the end of July 2021 with a suspected diagnosis of post-vaccination heart inflammation.

The authors calculated that, during the same study period, a total of 32,379 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were administered in the Ottawa area. “Therefore, if our cohort captured all cases in the Ottawa area, then the incidence of myocarditis would be 0.1 per cent of all vaccine doses,” or 10 cases of myocarditis for every 10,000 doses of vaccine, they wrote.

Except their denominator was wrong.


And...

Flawed papers and early release of data have ignited controversy and emboldened conspiracy theorists throughout the pandemic. “We keep blaming crackpots and ideological mouthpieces for spreading misinformation about COVID and about vaccines, and it’s a huge problem,” said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine. “But there have been a not-insignificant number of instances where mainstream science has gotten things wrong,” and which critics pick up on, instantly, Caplan said.


And...

A research letter published in JAMA involving 40 hospitals in Washington, Oregon, Montana and Los Angeles county and more than two million people who received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine estimated an incidence of one case of myocarditis in 100,000 vaccinations.


https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/university-of-ottawa-heart-institute-myocarditis-study

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475

I must say, dckingsfan, you are doing a good job of showing me data about the safety of the vaccines. I appreciate the effort and must admit that as more data rolls in, the risk of the vaccines seems to get lower.

I'm still not thrilled about vaccinating healthy children because the data also shows extremely low Covid risk, on par with influenza, for those groups. But you may be convincing me that people in the 20-50 range ought to get vaccinated even if they are healthy. (I don't think anyone with natural immunity needs to get vaccinated though.)
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#337 » by Kanyewest » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:10 pm

Wizards' roster isn't fully-vaccinated for coronavirus
https://www.yahoo.com/now/wizards-roster-isnt-fully-vaccinated-193933672.html
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#338 » by Kanyewest » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:22 pm

While the risk for children themselves are not that high compared to older adults- they ultimately could be carriers of the disease as they interact with their parents and grandparents not to mention teachers. "Premonition"- a book by Michael Lewis, the same author of the Big Short- discusses the point of reducing classroom interactions as a major part of reducing the transmission of disease. It seems that many schools have observed social distancing mandates including masking - although it will be interesting to see how it spreads in different states.

I do agree that unvaccinated older adults is a higher priority - but we're at the point where the vaccine is readily available to them and they have chosen not to take it. May as well give it to children who are more voluntarily, at least with their parents consent, are more likely to take it.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#339 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:27 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
The scientists initially estimated the prevalence of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) or pericarditis (inflammation of the outer lining of the heart) based on 32 consecutive people admitted to the Heart Institute from June 1 through to the end of July 2021 with a suspected diagnosis of post-vaccination heart inflammation.

The authors calculated that, during the same study period, a total of 32,379 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were administered in the Ottawa area. “Therefore, if our cohort captured all cases in the Ottawa area, then the incidence of myocarditis would be 0.1 per cent of all vaccine doses,” or 10 cases of myocarditis for every 10,000 doses of vaccine, they wrote.

Except their denominator was wrong.


And...

Flawed papers and early release of data have ignited controversy and emboldened conspiracy theorists throughout the pandemic. “We keep blaming crackpots and ideological mouthpieces for spreading misinformation about COVID and about vaccines, and it’s a huge problem,” said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine. “But there have been a not-insignificant number of instances where mainstream science has gotten things wrong,” and which critics pick up on, instantly, Caplan said.


And...

A research letter published in JAMA involving 40 hospitals in Washington, Oregon, Montana and Los Angeles county and more than two million people who received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine estimated an incidence of one case of myocarditis in 100,000 vaccinations.


https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/university-of-ottawa-heart-institute-myocarditis-study

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475

I must say, dckingsfan, you are doing a good job of showing me data about the safety of the vaccines. I appreciate the effort and must admit that as more data rolls in, the risk of the vaccines seems to get lower.

I'm still not thrilled about vaccinating healthy children because the data also shows extremely low Covid risk, on par with influenza, for those groups. But you may be convincing me that people in the 20-50 range ought to get vaccinated even if they are healthy. (I don't think anyone with natural immunity needs to get vaccinated though.)

So more on this...

A vaccine + natural immunity is the cat's ass - you probably won't even get Covid, all with very little side effects (and it's free).

So, yes to those over 18 getting vaccinated - it will most definitely reduce the resources on our hospitals.

Opinion: I have no problems with the mandates even for those that have had Covid (for those that had asymptomatic or mild cases - there is no way to know unless they were tested).

==========

As to kids. That has to be on the parent (and parental choice). The vaccine is efficacious and safer than getting Covid. But... it isn't yet approved and the benefit to the kid is marginal. The greater benefit is to their teachers, staff and classmates. And to be honest, the damage has already been done. Opening schools where there was already a large communal outbreak without mitigating measures has hammered those regions.

If my kid was older (16 to 18), I personally would have them vaccinated. Younger... don't know.

By the time the FDA rolls around to approving the vaccines for those under 12 and older - well, most kids could have already had Covid and hopefully the communal spread will be low by that time. And vaccines for those that are under 12 are going to take a long time to get approved, IMO.

For kids, I would want the lowest dosage I could get - no way I get Moderna for my kid.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#340 » by Pointgod » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:05 pm

Since there was a lot of talk about myocarditis in this thread it’s worth noting.

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