Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

[nate33]

As an aside, I'm actually amused by some of the stuff that has been made clear by society at this stage. There is clearly more of a public appetite to enforce the banning of spaghetti straps and shorts on girls in public schools than there is for temporarily wearing masks in public for a couple years. Not to cast judgment about good or bad or other arbitrary terms. It's what the public wants and that is far more what's at the heart of all of this than anything to do with public safety, or what's good for the economy, or what's good for people.

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

[DCZards]

Sorry, Nate, this a problem (and public health issue) that affects ALL of us...and puts an unfair and unnecessary burden on our health care workers, who have already been put through more than enough due to the pandemic.

Delta Forces Hospitals Across U.S. to Ration Scarce ICU Beds
Aug. 10, 2021

Hospitals across the U.S. are parceling out beds for Covid patients, hunting for doctors and nurses as the delta variant sweeps coast to coast.

The disease is outstripping any mitigation measures. In a few states, the unvaccinated are entering intensive care at rates matching the winter wave. The vaccinated are coming to realize that a sweet summer of release may have been a fantasy, as they again calculate the risks of working, seeing relatives and circulating in society.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/delta-strains-hospitals-across-u-s-as-unvaccinated-fill-icus

[I_Like_Dirt]

So where are we?

Do you cede that the vaccines aren't stopping the spread? Do you have an alternative explanation for Iceland and the HMS Queen Elizabeth?

How many times does it have to be pointed out to you that people who have been vaccinated have not been dying or even getting hospitalized at anywhere near the rate that non-vaccintated people have?

Yes, there are some unknowns going forward, and we will have to get booster shots at some point with probably improved vaccinations, but people's lives have been saved and made better because of vaccinations, and they will continue to be saved because of vaccinations. And I'm not going to respond to any irrrelevant garbage that you're more than likely misinterpreting to try to justify your nonsensical views.

People not getting vaccinated are causing completely unnecessary deaths and sickness all over the world, and that is unforgivable. And trying to rationalize that away is unforgivable.

I give up.

I don't understand why you keep going to the public health argument when vaccines aren't stopping the spread. It's an individual choice matter now.

I've already stated that vaccines do indeed mitigate the symptoms. Getting vaccinated makes obvious sense if you are in a high risk group.

Vaccines are stopping the spread. Just not 100%. And the more vaccines you have, the better they work on a rather exponential curve. George Washington mandated the small pox vaccine for the military. We aren't really getting that kind of closed system for high vaccine uptake though and vaccines aren't an individual bubble protection. One person taking a vaccine is incredibly meaningless for the most part - offers them some protection but not much. The amount of protection offered tends to increase rather dramatically as more people get vaccinated.

And realistically this may wind up being a worldwide problem where more variants spin off unless places like Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, China, etc. commit to international vaccination efforts. Is that a sisyphean task?It might be. But I'd suggest that if it is we're in for a bumpy ride because covid is merely the test run for what the climate has in store for us.

* you're also reaching on the virus becoming less deadly. It will in some places. Others probably not. For all your pointing out of how we don't know stuff you definitely claim a fair amount of certainty on things that haven't played out

[nate33]

It was a pain in the a**, but I moved the Covid talk here. Sorry about the thread derail, guys.

[dckingsfan]

and here if you choose:
viewtopic.php?f=69&t=2110733

[Kanyewest]

From the beginning of the year up to July- seems like that's changing though more lately with the Delta variant.

[queridiculo]

Seems like all of the data out there is pretty unambiguous.

Vaccinations both slow the transmission and hospitalization rates, on top of resulting in more favorable outcomes for the infected.

The unvaccinated have fueled the Delta variant outbreaks and it's slowly starting to have an affect on the highly vaccinated communities.

No point in arguing this any further, and as far as I am concerned the best thing to come out of this is the culling of science skeptics.

I have about run out of patience for climate deniers, antivaxxers, flat earthers and all of those other tards that dabble in anti science.

[nate33]

The graphic says that it's case rates "in recent months". How many months? Several months ago, there weren't as many people vaccinated and the vaccines were working better because the antibody levels were still high and the delta variant wasn't around. But all those factors have changed recently. The antibody titters from the vaccine declines quite a bit after 6 months and the vaccines are less effective against Delta in general. I'd like to see the data from July alone and compare it to the data from, say, May.

Israel and Iceland, both with essentially total adult vaccination, are experiencing massive case surges. Iceland has surpassed its record high last year, and Israel is about to surpass it's total last summer. They are one or two months ahead of us in getting their population vaccinated. It's not unreasonable to expect that the evident decline in vaccine effectiveness there won't also happen here (and may be happening now)



And in Israel at least, it looks like many of these cases are leading to hospitalizations:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-officials-predict-thousands-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-within-month/

[nate33]

From the beginning of the year up to July- seems like that's changing though more lately with the Delta variant.

Aha. I found the source data. It's using data from all the way back to January so it's totally useless and deliberately misleading. In January and February, the entire country was going through the peak high of cases, roughly 10 times the case rate we saw in May and June this year. And all of those cases were suffered by the unvaccinated because nobody was vaccinated at the time. So of course, if you look at data going back to January, you will see the unvaccinated representing 95% or more of total cases.

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/

This is the problem with discussing these matters. There is deliberate deception by our health authorities and the mainstream media. The will lie and manipulate as much as they have to to try and get people to do what they want. This is why there is vaccine hesitancy. Nobody trusts the people in charge.

[Ruzious]

As an aside, I'm actually amused by some of the stuff that has been made clear by society at this stage. There is clearly more of a public appetite to enforce the banning of spaghetti straps and shorts on girls in public schools than there is for temporarily wearing masks in public for a couple years. Not to cast judgment about good or bad or other arbitrary terms. It's what the public wants and that is far more what's at the heart of all of this than anything to do with public safety, or what's good for the economy, or what's good for people.

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

I hate to burst your feaux fear bubble, but until the Delta Variant came here, the same thing you mentioned in Ohio happened in Maryland. You should have gone to a Home Depot - the one in Gaithersburg was packed and far more than half the people weren't wearing masks. In grocery stores, they took down the restriction to wear masks. Btw, I have niece that goes to Ohio State. Their campus was a complete mess because of a ridiculously high COVID rate. They finally got their act together and can have classes on campus again. And regardless of vaccination status, all students, faculty, staff, and visitors are required to wear masks indoors.

[Kanyewest]

The graphic says that it's case rates "in recent months". How many months? Several months ago, there weren't as many people vaccinated and the vaccines were working better because the antibody levels were still high and the delta variant wasn't around. But all those factors have changed recently. The antibody titters from the vaccine declines quite a bit after 6 months and the vaccines are less effective against Delta in general. I'd like to see the data from July alone and compare it to the data from, say, May.

Israel and Iceland, both with essentially total adult vaccination, are experiencing massive case surges. Iceland has surpassed its record high last year, and Israel is about to surpass it's total last summer. They are one or two months ahead of us in getting their population vaccinated. It's not unreasonable to expect that the evident decline in vaccine effectiveness there won't also happen here (and may be happening now)



And in Israel at least, it looks like many of these cases are leading to hospitalizations:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-officials-predict-thousands-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-within-month/

It's from the beginning of January to July. The average of people who were vaccinated from that period was roughly 24 percent (0 percent in January and 48% in July). Therefore, if you would deem the vaccine to be ineffective, than the total number of breakthrough cases (hospitalizations and deaths) would be closer to 24% of the unvaccinated population.

As far as Israel, their cases are surging because their Pfizer vaccine is already deemed to only have a 37% efficacy against the delta variant. I believe the one that was offered in the US was deemed to have a higher efficacy but the one from Moderna has the highest efficacy against Delta.

Iceland is a good population for testing since most of their population is vaccinated compared to Israel (90 % to 60%). According to this website, Iceland hasn't had a death from Covid since May 25th. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/iceland/ Expect that to change though with Delta here.

[DCZards]

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

Personally, I’m thrilled to live in the East/DMV where people do “crazy things” to avoid getting the virus and where there is one of the highest vaccination rates in the country.

[nate33]

It's from the beginning of January to July. The average of people who were vaccinated from that period was roughly 24 percent (0 percent in January and 48% in July). Therefore, if you would deem the vaccine to be ineffective, than the total number of breakthrough cases (hospitalizations and deaths) would be closer to 24% of the unvaccinated population.

No. Statistics don't work that way.

In January and February, the U.S. was suffering 200,000 cases a day while nobody was vaccinated. Meanwhile, in May and June, the U.S. was suffering just 20,000 cases a day. You can't just average that out and assume a linear distribution. Basically ALL the cases during the peak months of January and February were accumulated by unvaccinated. There's no way for the vaccinated to even put a dent into those numbers in subsequent months when case rates were 10% as high.

As far as Israel, their cases are surging because their Pfizer vaccine is already deemed to only have a 37% efficacy against the delta variant. I believe the one that was offered in the US was deemed to have a higher efficacy but the one from Moderna has the highest efficacy against Delta.

Interesting. Do you have any source data on the Israel Pfizer being different from the U.S Pfizer?

Iceland is a good population for testing since most of their population is vaccinated compared to Israel (90 % to 60%). According to this website, Iceland hasn't had a death from Covid since May 25th. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/iceland/

I'm not discussing deaths. I'm discussing whether or not the spread of the virus can be blamed solely on the unvaccinated. I readily cede that the vaccines are mitigating hospitalizations and deaths, at least for the first several months after administration.

[nate33]

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

Personally, I’m more than happy to live in the East/DMV where people do “crazy things” to avoid getting the virus and where there is one of the highest vaccination rates in the country.

Wearing masks while walking alone outside is crazy. Wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes is crazy.

[Kanyewest]

It's from the beginning of January to July. The average of people who were vaccinated from that period was roughly 24 percent (0 percent in January and 48% in July). Therefore, if you would deem the vaccine to be ineffective, than the total number of breakthrough cases (hospitalizations and deaths) would be closer to 24% of the unvaccinated population.

No. Statistics don't work that way.

In January and February, the U.S. was suffering 200,000 cases a day while nobody was vaccinated. Meanwhile, in May and June, the U.S. was suffering just 20,000 cases a day. You can't just average that out and assume a linear distribution. Basically ALL the cases during the peak months of January and February were accumulated by unvaccinated. There's no way for the vaccinated to even put a dent into those numbers in subsequent months when case rates were 10% as high.

As far as Israel, their cases are surging because their Pfizer vaccine is already deemed to only have a 37% efficacy against the delta variant. I believe the one that was offered in the US was deemed to have a higher efficacy but the one from Moderna has the highest efficacy against Delta.

Interesting. Do you have any source data on the Israel Pfizer being different from the U.S Pfizer?

Iceland is a good population for testing since most of their population is vaccinated compared to Israel (90 % to 60%). According to this website, Iceland hasn't had a death from Covid since May 25th. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/iceland/

I'm not discussing deaths. I'm discussing whether or not the spread of the virus can be blamed solely on the unvaccinated. I readily cede that the vaccines are mitigating hospitalizations and deaths, at least for the first several months after administration.

Yup it isn't linear. More people were also vaccinated in the early months and now it has flatlined over the summer. Too lazy to do the work for it because either way one would still expect the numbers of vaccinated people to be higher if the vaccine was ineffective in breakthrough cases of deaths/hospitalizations which is what that figure was showing than 1 to 4%. Also, given that cases declined in that time suggest that the vaccine was indeed effective given the lifting of social distancing mandates.

Here is the citation of the efficacy of Pfizer vaccine in Israel. The one in the US is different than the one offered in Israel
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

The graphs I quoted were deaths and hospitalizations- which accounts for breakthrough cases. Again it would be interesting to see the data of hospitalizations and deaths.

[DCZards]

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

Personally, I’m more than happy to live in the East/DMV where people do “crazy things” to avoid getting the virus and where there is one of the highest vaccination rates in the country.

Wearing masks while walking alone outside is crazy. Wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes is crazy.

Yup…. “crazy as a fox.”

[nate33]

Yup it isn't linear. More people were also vaccinated in the early months and now it has flatlined over the summer. Too lazy to do the work for it because either way one would still expect the numbers of vaccinated people to be higher if the vaccine was ineffective in breakthrough cases of deaths/hospitalizations which is what that figure was showing than 1 to 4%. Also, given that cases declined in that time suggest that the vaccine was indeed effective given the lifting of social distancing mandates.

Here is the citation of the efficacy of Pfizer vaccine in Israel. The one in the US is different than the one offered in Israel
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

The graphs I quoted were deaths and hospitalizations- which accounts for breakthrough cases. Again it would be interesting to see the data of hospitalizations and deaths.

I agree that, even with the weighting of cases dramatically shifted toward January and February, the total numbers of vaccinated versus unvaccinated would be higher if vaccines were totally ineffective. Instead of 98 and 99%, it would probably be more like 95%. Clearly, vaccines helped prevent spread to some degree. But what I think we are seeing is that the vaccines helped primarily with the Alpha strain, and much less so with Delta, and I believe that we are also seeing less effective antibody response across the board as more months pass from the date of vaccination. The vaccines work better in months 1 and 2 than they do in months 5 and 6.

With those two factors in play, I expect the vaccines to grow less and less effective, just as they are in the nations that vaccinated their population faster than us. This is going to be a recurring problem that will just get worse over time as the more variants come into play and more people resist the notion of needing vaccine booster shots every 6 months. This is why I keep saying we are not going to vaccinate our way out of this. The notion of Zero Covid is dead. Covid will become endemic. And if that's a case, we need a to adjust our mindset a bit. We're going to have to live with this. Now it's about mitigating the damage.

[tontoz]

As someone who grew up in the DC area and now lives in Ohio, one of the things that has truly fascinated me is the regional difference in outlook regarding Covid. Ohio was willing to mask up and social distance for a few weeks when things were really scary in Italy and New York City, and we didn't really know what was going on; but once the true risks of Covid became evident, the willingness to mask and social distance declined quickly. By July, we were done with it. Masks were still required, but 25% of people ignored it and nobody cared.

But when I traveled East, I was just amazed at the level of fear in the population. People were wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes before opening them, wearing masks outdoors, and all kinds of crazy things. It was really a different world.

Personally, I’m more than happy to live in the East/DMV where people do “crazy things” to avoid getting the virus and where there is one of the highest vaccination rates in the country.

Wearing masks while walking alone outside is crazy. Wiping down packages with Chlorox wipes is crazy.

Uhh...no. It is excessive but not crazy. Nobody is going to the hospital because they wipe down packages with Chlorox.

Sometimes people might have the mask on walking outside or in their car simply because they forgot they had the mask on. This actually happened to me just last night.

A long drive champ came to my home course for an exhibition. People were clustered behind him with masks on. Then after he was done i was talking with a friend with nobody else around. He was several feet away and had already taken his mask off but my mask was still on simply because i forgot about it. I didnt notice it until i got in the car.

[Rand McNally]

can someone post a poll asking (a) if people are vaccinated (b) if they support mandates?

[Ruzious]

Now - making your bed every day - that's excessive (not actually crazy) - but probably most people do it.