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Is there still room for Rui on this team?

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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#21 » by verbal8 » Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:02 pm

If Rui plays well I think he will earn minutes. The most likely minutes would be taking minutes directly from Bertrans and from KCP playing at 3 - which would eat into Neto's minutes.

With Deni and Kuzma playing well their minutes aren't likely to take a hit. It would be a good "problem" to have to have Rui/Deni/Kuzma and not enough minutes. One good way to resolve that is go with who is playing the hardest and the best defense.

If there is a reduction in Kispert's minutes - I think that would happen later in the season with Rui being fully back and playing for play-off seeding.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#22 » by smoothSeph » Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:05 pm

nate33 wrote:
smoothSeph wrote:From the top of the organization down to the players there are countless quotes of how irreplaceable and important Rui is to our team success. I don't think I've ever seen such a disparity of a teams view of a player vs the fanbases. It's quite interesting.

If you asked Beal this he'd probably hit you with a, "next question." :lol:

He WAS irreplaceable last year. But with improvement from Deni and the addition of Kuzma, he went from being the best PF on the roster to arguably the 3rd best. Now, if he has improved in the offseason, or if he can manage to play like "playoff Rui" permanently, then that's a different story.

We’ve improved defensively but offensively this team has taken a nosedive. I think it’s fair to believe replacing one of those guys with Rui doesn’t negatively impact our defense.

I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.

This is all based off him being mentally ready and building off his last playoff series. But until he shows he can’t I believe he can. He’s missed 2 months of basketball not 2 years.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#23 » by dckingsfan » Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:31 pm

smoothSeph wrote:We’ve improved defensively but offensively this team has taken a nosedive. I think it’s fair to believe replacing one of those guys with Rui doesn’t negatively impact our defense.

I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.

This is all based off him being mentally ready and building off his last playoff series. But until he shows he can’t I believe he can. He’s missed 2 months of basketball not 2 years.

And I think that limiting the minutes of a three guard rotation will be a good thing and not a bad thing.

Dinwiddie with Neto & Holiday backing up Dinwiddie strictly at the PG.
Beal with KCP and Kispert backing up Beal.
Rui (when is back to full speed) with KCP, Kispert and Bertans (break glass) backing up Rui.
Kuzma (don't throw anthing at me) with Avidja backing him up.
Gafford with Harrell as his backup with Bryant having to earn the extra minutes.

We shall see how Wes handles this... he has been great so far - it is going to get a bit harder with everyone returning, IMO.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#24 » by Doug_Blew » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:02 pm

DCZards wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:Rui definitely starts over KCP with in weeks of him coming back .

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app


This. If I was Wes, once (and assuming/hoping) Rui is fully back to his old self, I’ll do:

Dinwiddie (30)/Back up guard (14)/Deni (4)
Beal (34)/KCP (14)
Rui (28)/KCP (10)/Kispert (10)
Kuzma (28)/Deni (20)
Gafford (22)/Trez (26)

I’ll try to trade Bertans for back up guard help.

If we get lucky: Bertans+Neto (or Holiday) for Sato + Temple.

And I’ll experiment with Deni for a few minutes per game as point forward, making sure there is another decent ball handler with him on court (eg Beal).

I want to see how Rui plays under Wes Jr. before even thinking about where and when he fits in. He and Deni give us two excellent man-to-man defenders...with Deni having better playmaking skills and Rui being the better scorer.

14 mins for KCP? You seriously underestimate KCP's contributions to the Zards. He's a great defender and maybe the Zards most clutch 3 pt shooter...something he also proved to be during the Lakers championship run in 2020.

KCP is an on court leader. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him (calmly) talking to refs during time outs on behalf of himself and/or teammates when the Zards weren't getting the calls they should be getting.

KCP is this team's glue guy. He should be playing at least 28 mins and will almost certainly be on the court at the end of close games.


Frichuela has 24 minutes for KCP. I think it's a pretty good minute breakdown.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#25 » by dckingsfan » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:11 pm

Frichuela wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:Rui definitely starts over KCP with in weeks of him coming back .

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app


This. If I was Wes, once (and assuming/hoping) Rui is fully back to his old self, I’ll do:

Dinwiddie (30)/Back up guard (14)/Deni (4)
Beal (34)/KCP (14)
Rui (28)/KCP (10)/Kispert (10)
Kuzma (28)/Deni (20)
Gafford (22)/Trez (26)

I’ll try to trade Bertans for back up guard help.

If we get lucky: Bertans+Neto (or Holiday) for Sato + Temple.

And I’ll experiment with Deni for a few minutes per game as point forward, making sure there is another decent ball handler with him on court (eg Beal).

Missed this one... count me all in.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#26 » by DCZards » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:24 pm

Doug_Blew wrote:
DCZards wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
This. If I was Wes, once (and assuming/hoping) Rui is fully back to his old self, I’ll do:

Dinwiddie (30)/Back up guard (14)/Deni (4)
Beal (34)/KCP (14)
Rui (28)/KCP (10)/Kispert (10)
Kuzma (28)/Deni (20)
Gafford (22)/Trez (26)

I’ll try to trade Bertans for back up guard help.

If we get lucky: Bertans+Neto (or Holiday) for Sato + Temple.

And I’ll experiment with Deni for a few minutes per game as point forward, making sure there is another decent ball handler with him on court (eg Beal).

I want to see how Rui plays under Wes Jr. before even thinking about where and when he fits in. He and Deni give us two excellent man-to-man defenders...with Deni having better playmaking skills and Rui being the better scorer.

14 mins for KCP? You seriously underestimate KCP's contributions to the Zards. He's a great defender and maybe the Zards most clutch 3 pt shooter...something he also proved to be during the Lakers championship run in 2020.

KCP is an on court leader. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him (calmly) talking to refs during time outs on behalf of himself and/or teammates when the Zards weren't getting the calls they should be getting.

KCP is this team's glue guy. He should be playing at least 28 mins and will almost certainly be on the court at the end of close games.


Frichuela has 24 minutes for KCP. I think it's a pretty good minute breakdown.

Yeah…saw that. My bad.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#27 » by nate33 » Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:42 pm

smoothSeph wrote:
nate33 wrote:
smoothSeph wrote:From the top of the organization down to the players there are countless quotes of how irreplaceable and important Rui is to our team success. I don't think I've ever seen such a disparity of a teams view of a player vs the fanbases. It's quite interesting.

If you asked Beal this he'd probably hit you with a, "next question." :lol:

He WAS irreplaceable last year. But with improvement from Deni and the addition of Kuzma, he went from being the best PF on the roster to arguably the 3rd best. Now, if he has improved in the offseason, or if he can manage to play like "playoff Rui" permanently, then that's a different story.

We’ve improved defensively but offensively this team has taken a nosedive. I think it’s fair to believe replacing one of those guys with Rui doesn’t negatively impact our defense.

I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.

This is all based off him being mentally ready and building off his last playoff series. But until he shows he can’t I believe he can. He’s missed 2 months of basketball not 2 years.

I'm just not seeing all this offense from Rui that you are talking about. Rui averaged 20 points per 100 possessions while shooting 3.3% below league average TS% last year. That's not a good thing. In general, I was underwhelmed by his shot creation ability. Stepback jumpers from midrange are not an efficient enough shot to rely on unless you are Kawhi or Durant. It should be considered a bail-out shot only. He is at his best as a finisher around the rim, but then, who isn't?

Kuzma, by comparison is also averaging 20 points per 100 possessions while shooting 3.7% below league average TS%. But Kuzma is getting 60% more rebounds. His defense is probably slightly worse than Rui's, but he is making up for it on the glass.

Rui does score more than Avdija, but that's not necessarily a good thing given his efficiency. Avdija wastes fewer possessions by missing shots, and he still has as much off ball gravity because he launches more 3's per 100 possessions while hitting them at a comparable rate (.306 versus Rui's .328). Meanwhile, Deni is a comparable on-ball defender, a better off-ball defender, and a better rebounder. He's a better passer too.

And the team has not "taken a nosedive" offensively. Last year, they ranked 18th. This year, they rank 17th despite Beal having the worst start of his career shooting-wise. (Points are down leaguewide because of the change in rules regarding fouls.)

I'm not saying I'm giving up on Rui. I'm just saying the Rui of last year does not appear to be better than either Kuzma or Avdija, so he is going to struggle to get minutes. If he has improved, or if his playoff production was not a small sample size aberration, then that's a different story. Rui certainly should get an opportunity to show what he is capable of. If he does take minutes from someone, I hope it's from Kuzma and not Avdija.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#28 » by doclinkin » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:05 pm

CobraCommander wrote:
prime1time wrote:We're not a championship contender without him so the notion that there is no space for him is quite laughable...

Quite laughable indeed! Can I interest you in a guy giving you 13 and 8 on their rookie deal with a deadly mid range jumper


smoothSeph wrote:I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.


And they are not something Rui gives you, except if he is able to dunk in open space.

Rui hits 39% on pull-up shots from 2. And the more he dribbles the less reliable his shot. If he is guarded on any shot outside 10 feet his %'s fall off a cliff. He shoots better on catch and shoot, but by definition that is not a player who "makes his own offense". As for deadly mid-range shot. How. Where. He shoots 40-odd% at best on all shots from 3 ft to the 3pt line.

I'm not trying to crush the guy, I'm preaching patience based on the evidence, as opposed to certainty based on hope. Or selective memory. He has a lot going for him, but his game is lacking right now. It pained me that he missed the critical time early, since his struggles were reportedly that he was under a great deal of pressure to perform, but still has a pretty steep hill to climb before he is competent at key core elements of playing the team game. He needs reps and fundamentals and actual coaching and player development. He does not need to be playing pick-up games at "Big Guard University" when the parts of his game he needs most are any low post skills that can take advantage of his strength, huge hands, athletic mismatches. He needs to learn to screen. Set picks. Etc. Not try to dribble into a guarded fadeaway.

If he earns significant productive play time this season on a winning team I will be truly impressed. In both Rui and Wes both.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#29 » by FAH1223 » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:26 pm

doclinkin wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:Yes. Rui can create his own shot. And on ball he solid defensively.


No he cannot.

And on defense off ball he is uninvolved and does not know how to play team ball or rebound or box out.

It is unfortunate he missed training camp since he needs fundamentals most of all. He has tremendous physical talent but as a professional he is still learning the game of basketball.

To the first point:

Take a walk through any of the metrics of the basic offensive plays that the NBA has stats for and Rui comes up short.

Isolation. 14th percentile.

spot up. 26th percentile.

post up. 43rd percentile

hand off. zeroth percentile. there is no data (*) of him attempting to score off this play type last year. (* fewer than 10 attempts last year),

off ball cut. 39th percentile.

off screen. zeroth percentile. there is no data of him attempting to score off this play type last year.

pick and roll man. 36th percentile.

pick and roll ball handler. zeroth percentile. no data that he has tried this either.

offensive putbacks. 20th percentile.

Here is where he was good:

transition bucket. 86th percentile.

miscellaneous. 60th percentile. with a frequency of half a possession per game.

And in the playoffs he hit his catch and shoot threes.

Maybe miscellaneous is what we are talking about making his own offense? Scoring off mid range fade-aways where he dribbled into the defense then pulled up.

If by 'makes his own offense' we mean 'does not run plays in a team offense'' then alright.


His talent is undeniable. Size, ability in isolation defense to stifle big scorers (above 6'6"). The scorching hot 3-pt shooting of the playoffs. If he maintans a high percentage there then he is useful and playable. But. His understanding of the team game is lacking. Really of all the players on the team he was the one who most needed that early pre-season work in the gym with Wes. Drilling fundamentals, learning how to fit next to the other players.

For now, joining mid-season, getting his focus right, as a late addition to a team that has developed solid chemistry etc. I wouldn't put too much pressure on the idea that he will eat up many minutes. If you can play a box and one with him matched against a heavy usage Big, then his defense can be key at times. Expecting him to start at some point in the season seems unlikely or even an unfair expectation. He needs to learn to box out, set screens, set picks, make cuts, dive for putbacks, learn low post footwork, cut off angles, not ball watch on defense --pick any two-three of these -- before he can play in a team scheme. The skills he does have on offense he will need to do more efficiently.

Wes is a solid solid coach for player development. Good character low-pressure but intense teacher who will help Rui build skill and confidence. There's a learning curve though before the team has rehabilitated his value, in both on court minutes and as a possible trade piece.


That's exactly what I'm referring to. He can always pull up to the elbow and get his midrange J off. He shoots about 42% on shots from 10 to 23 feet. Gotta get that higher a bit but not terrible at all.

These past games against 2-3 zones... Rui would get to that spot easily and put pressure on it. Our wings and forwards keep settling for 3s
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#30 » by smoothSeph » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:51 pm

doclinkin wrote:
CobraCommander wrote:
prime1time wrote:We're not a championship contender without him so the notion that there is no space for him is quite laughable...

Quite laughable indeed! Can I interest you in a guy giving you 13 and 8 on their rookie deal with a deadly mid range jumper


smoothSeph wrote:I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.


And they are not something Rui gives you, except if he is able to dunk in open space.

You make some good points but statements like this make it pointless to even debate. You seriously believe that?

You’d think we’re talking about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in comparison to Rui not Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Above all I just want the team to be successful. If it’s with Rui great, if it turns out “there’s no room for him on this team” I’ll still be supporting whoever’s here.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#31 » by prime1time » Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:Yes. Rui can create his own shot. And on ball he solid defensively.


No he cannot.

And on defense off ball he is uninvolved and does not know how to play team ball or rebound or box out.

It is unfortunate he missed training camp since he needs fundamentals most of all. He has tremendous physical talent but as a professional he is still learning the game of basketball.

To the first point:

Take a walk through any of the metrics of the basic offensive plays that the NBA has stats for and Rui comes up short.

Isolation. 14th percentile.

spot up. 26th percentile.

post up. 43rd percentile

hand off. zeroth percentile. there is no data (*) of him attempting to score off this play type last year. (* fewer than 10 attempts last year),

off ball cut. 39th percentile.

off screen. zeroth percentile. there is no data of him attempting to score off this play type last year.

pick and roll man. 36th percentile.

pick and roll ball handler. zeroth percentile. no data that he has tried this either.

offensive putbacks. 20th percentile.

Here is where he was good:

transition bucket. 86th percentile.

miscellaneous. 60th percentile. with a frequency of half a possession per game.

And in the playoffs he hit his catch and shoot threes.

Maybe miscellaneous is what we are talking about making his own offense? Scoring off mid range fade-aways where he dribbled into the defense then pulled up.

If by 'makes his own offense' we mean 'does not run plays in a team offense'' then alright.

His talent is undeniable. Size, ability in isolation defense to stifle big scorers (above 6'6"). The scorching hot 3-pt shooting of the playoffs. If he maintans a high percentage there then he is useful and playable. But. His understanding of the team game is lacking. Really of all the players on the team he was the one who most needed that early pre-season work in the gym with Wes. Drilling fundamentals, learning how to fit next to the other players.

For now, joining mid-season, getting his focus right, as a late addition to a team that has developed solid chemistry etc. I wouldn't put too much pressure on the idea that he will eat up many minutes. If you can play a box and one with him matched against a heavy usage Big, then his defense can be key at times. Expecting him to start at some point in the season seems unlikely or even an unfair expectation. He needs to learn to box out, set screens, set picks, make cuts, dive for putbacks, learn low post footwork, cut off angles, not ball watch on defense --pick any two-three of these -- before he can play in a team scheme. The skills he does have on offense he will need to do more efficiently.

Wes is a solid solid coach for player development. Good character low-pressure but intense teacher who will help Rui build skill and confidence. There's a learning curve though before the team has rehabilitated his value, in both on court minutes and as a possible trade piece.

Are there things that Rui does better than our current forwards? The question is as simple as that. I'll never understand why when I go into Rui threads, people are obsessed with comparing him to some arbitrary standard. What are the percentiles of Deni Avdija, KCP, Kuzma, Neto, Kispert, Avdija and Bertans? Are they all offensive juggernauts? Why is the standard comparing Rui to some arbitrary standard of percentile in the league, vs. comparing them to players we have on this team?

If Rui is a better scorer than some of the players we currently have scoring, then the team will benefit from his scoring ability. You can try to make it more complicated than that but it isn't. We aren't asking Rui to be a primary scoring option. Or even a secondary scoring option. How many 3rd or 4th options are even above average in those categories?

;ab_channel=Z.Highlights


If Rui could do all the things you listed, he would be a HOF. People need to get realistic. We aren't asking him to lead the team in scoring. We are asking him to just be another guy and contribute. And he has already shown he can do that. Also, I love how you write off what he did last year in the playoffs as he "just hit catch and shoot 3's". Like that's not significant. If he can do that consistently, do you know how good this team will be? C'mon man. Ultimately, just use the same energy for every player on the team. Don't bring this energy for Rui and then overlook the flaws of other players.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#32 » by doclinkin » Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:32 pm

smoothSeph wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
smoothSeph wrote:I believe adding Rui also positively impacts our offense. Outside Beal, Rui is the only player on our roster that gives you 4 level scoring ability. Inside, midrange, outside and in transition. Easy buckets are something we’ve been missing.


And they are not something Rui gives you, except if he is able to dunk in open space.

You make some good points but statements like this make it pointless to even debate. You seriously believe that?


My belief is irrelevant. The stats showed you that he categorically does not give you 4 level scoring ability. Of the 4 you mentioned, he only gives transition scoring, usually off a pass. In the playoffs he showed outside scoring. If that is sustainable then he is a useful player. "Easy buckets" implies an efficient scorer. A reliable %. I'd suggest it indicates significantly better than average. That descriptor does not match Rui's stats so far.

You’d think we’re talking about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in comparison to Rui not Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma.


I haven't looked deeply at the stats for Deni and Kuz. I am not saying Rui needs to be off the team. I am saying the projections that he is likely to start and earn heavy minutes on a team that is currently winning with team play -- those projections are not backed up by this player's history. The stats say so. He does not participate in basketball plays. He is sub par in team defense.

Regarding Deni and Kuzma: I'll look at the research, but when I was sorting stats in the past to see the +/- numbers and on/off numbers on who improves the team the most, Rui did not make himself look good. If I recall correctly: Our rebounding was down with him on the floor. Our assists were down. Our free throw rate was down. Our scoring %'s as well.

Kuzma has been pretty meh. Especially since he can't hit a free throw. The one thing he does do is rebound like a madman. He is pulling over 13 boards per 100 possessions. Last I looked he was pushing a 15% rebound rate. Rui was 9% last year. I'd wonder: Who makes up those extra possessions if we lose Kuz. Now that I look, Kuz is shooting a better 3FG% than Rui has, while shooting over 6 a game. Rui tried 2 per game, and aside from a hot streak in the playoffs, they were significantly below league average.

Deni. Holy heck. Now that I look at the on/off numbers. Rui had a -1.8 on the team's scoring (vs scored against) last year. Deni, who does not shoot at all, is posting a +13.5. That is, in a 100 possessions with Deni on the floor, the team is 13 points better than the other team. What the actual hell. Yeah, no, it may look like Deni is not a good scorer and is useless on team offense, but the team is 10 points better with him on the floor, and 3 points worse with him off the floor. Whatever you think of Deni's game he is emphatically not hurting the team. A smart coach and a data driven team would have a hard time replacing those minutes.

Opponents are 9 points worse on offense with Deni on the floor. I snorted at the comparisons to Draymond. But if sustainable, that is Draymond level. Draymond of 2018-2020. I can't imagine it is sustainable. Scouts will puzzle out some of what he does and does not do. And teams will learn it is stupid to try to target him in specific.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#33 » by J-Ves » Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:53 pm

I’m just going to hope his 11/18 3pt shooting in the postseason was a sign of an improved shot. Obviously that’s a tiny sample size but he did show some improvement from year 1(29%) to year 2 (33%) as well. If he can become a better shooter then he can play the SF position which I think is a better fit for his overall skill set. I’m still dreaming of a Rui + Deni starting front court
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#34 » by smoothSeph » Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:56 pm

Fair enough Doc, I respect you putting in the research. To be honest as long as we hit 1 for 2 on Deni/Rui that’s solid considering our new roster construction.

What a relief it is to even be arguing over playable guys vs Jerome Robinson, Isaac Bonga and Chandler Hutchison :lol:
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#35 » by doclinkin » Sun Nov 21, 2021 11:25 pm

prime1time wrote: Are there things that Rui does better than our current forwards? The question is as simple as that. I'll never understand why when I go into Rui threads, people are obsessed with comparing him to some arbitrary standard. What are the percentiles of Deni Avdija, KCP, Kuzma, Neto, Kispert, Avdija and Bertans? Are they all offensive juggernauts? Why is the standard comparing Rui to some arbitrary standard of percentile in the league, vs. comparing them to players we have on this team?


Fair point, I'll look at it, first Kuz:

At the rim:
Kuz: .762
Rui: .758

3-10 ft
.405
.449

10-16
.312
.482

16-3pt
.400
.397

3fg
.355
.361

In percentages they are pretty close, but Rui of last year beats Kuz of this year. I do wonder if Rui's numbers will be unaffected by the new rules emphasis since he was never drawing fouls much anyway.

Looking at on/off numbers Kuzma has been undeniably atrocious this year. For on/off numbers some part of that is likely because our 2nd unit has been monstrous. Or Montrezlous. Which magnifies the meh-ness of Kuz. And probably magnifies the Deni effect I mentioned. I have to look at Trez to see his +/- numbers. I bet they are mighty.

On playtypes Kuz and Rui are pretty close. Rui is better in transition. Kuz is better at putbacks from offensive boards. Bizarrely (small sample size) Kuz was in the 95th percentile as the ballhandler in pick and roll plays. But similarly atrocious to Rui in almost everything else.

I'm unimpressed with cherrypicked highlights though. For counterbalance you could post 13 games of 30+ points for Kuz. And one 40-piece. Kuzma has 42 career double doubles, where Rui has 6. All else being close I suspect most coaches would go with the vet with the track record. And championship ring.

If Rui is a better scorer than some of the players we currently have scoring, then the team will benefit from his scoring ability. You can try to make it more complicated than that but it isn't. We aren't asking Rui to be a primary scoring option. Or even a secondary scoring option. How many 3rd or 4th options are even above average in those categories?


On good teams, the starters are above average in one or more of those categories. On contenders the back-ups are good in at least one. If you are not good at one of these you don't stay in the league all that long.

If Rui could do all the things you listed, he would be a HOF. People need to get realistic. We aren't asking him to lead the team in scoring. We are asking him to just be another guy and contribute. And he has already shown he can do that.


You misunderstand my point on this. These are basic basketball plays. Mostly Rui does not participate in pick and roll plays, screens, etc etc. The frequency of his participating in them contributes to his low percentile numbers. He does not participate in some basketball basics. That means team play will stagnate around him because he is not moving off the ball, not threatening, not making teams react to what he might do, not getting other players open. The only play he regularly participates in team play is stand still catch and shoot jumpers. Or kickouts to him in transition. His growth has been stunted by Brooks coaching and Westbrook's/Isaiah Thomas' inefficient hero ball. Rui needs basics in team play. He needs Big Man fundamentals.

Also, I love how you write off what he did last year in the playoffs as he "just hit catch and shoot 3's".


Not overlooking it. I said if sustainable that makes him a useful player. That alone plus his ability to slow focal point Bigs would rehabilitate his value. Zero chance he sustains 60% three point shooting, because nobody does that, but if it is part of a sustainable trend upwards then he has a path to earning playtime on this team or any team.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#36 » by prime1time » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:37 am

doclinkin wrote:
prime1time wrote: Are there things that Rui does better than our current forwards? The question is as simple as that. I'll never understand why when I go into Rui threads, people are obsessed with comparing him to some arbitrary standard. What are the percentiles of Deni Avdija, KCP, Kuzma, Neto, Kispert, Avdija and Bertans? Are they all offensive juggernauts? Why is the standard comparing Rui to some arbitrary standard of percentile in the league, vs. comparing them to players we have on this team?


Fair point, I'll look at it, first Kuz:

At the rim:
Kuz: .762
Rui: .758

3-10 ft
.405
.449

10-16
.312
.482

16-3pt
.400
.397

3fg
.355
.361

In percentages they are pretty close, but Rui of last year beats Kuz of this year. I do wonder if Rui's numbers will be unaffected by the new rules emphasis since he was never drawing fouls much anyway.

Looking at on/off numbers Kuzma has been undeniably atrocious this year. For on/off numbers some part of that is likely because our 2nd unit has been monstrous. Or Montrezlous. Which magnifies the meh-ness of Kuz. And probably magnifies the Deni effect I mentioned. I have to look at Trez to see his +/- numbers. I bet they are mighty.

On playtypes Kuz and Rui are pretty close. Rui is better in transition. Kuz is better at putbacks from offensive boards. Bizarrely (small sample size) Kuz was in the 95th percentile as the ballhandler in pick and roll plays. But similarly atrocious to Rui in almost everything else.

I'm unimpressed with cherrypicked highlights though. For counterbalance you could post 13 games of 30+ points for Kuz. And one 40-piece. Kuzma has 42 career double doubles, where Rui has 6. All else being close I suspect most coaches would go with the vet with the track record.

If Rui is a better scorer than some of the players we currently have scoring, then the team will benefit from his scoring ability. You can try to make it more complicated than that but it isn't. We aren't asking Rui to be a primary scoring option. Or even a secondary scoring option. How many 3rd or 4th options are even above average in those categories?


On good teams, the starters are above average in one or more of those categories. On contenders the back-ups are good in at least one. If you are not good at one of these you don't stay in the league all that long.

If Rui could do all the things you listed, he would be a HOF. People need to get realistic. We aren't asking him to lead the team in scoring. We are asking him to just be another guy and contribute. And he has already shown he can do that.


You misunderstand my point on this. These are basic basketball plays. Mostly Rui does not participate in pick and roll plays, screens, etc etc. The frequency of his participating in them contributes to his low percentile numbers. He does not participate in some basketball basics. That means team play will stagnate around him because he is not moving off the ball, not threatening, not making teams react to what he might do, not getting other players open. The only play he regularly participates in team play is stand still catch and shoot jumpers. Or kickouts to him in transition. His growth has been stunted by Brooks coaching and Westbrook's/Isaiah Thomas' inefficient hero ball. Rui needs basics in team play. He needs Big Man fundamentals.

Also, I love how you write off what he did last year in the playoffs as he "just hit catch and shoot 3's".


Not overlooking it. I said if sustainable that makes him a useful player. That alone plus his ability to slow focal point Bigs would rehabilitate his value. Zero chance he sustains 60% three point shooting, because nobody does that, but if it is part of a sustainable trend upwards then he has a path to earning playtime on this team or any team.

It's not cherry-picked highlights. It's the playoffs. I give much more value to what someone does in the playoffs than what someone does in the regular season. In the playoffs every possession matters. Teams play tighter defense. And it is harder to score. It is a testimony to Rui that even with an offense dominated by Westbrook and Beal he was able to be effective offensively. As to the other issue of scoring percentiles to show that Rui can't score. I guess what you're trying to say is that even though we watch clips of him doing it here or there, he's not good at it. And you cite as evidence to take exception to the notion that he's a multi-level scorer. How about this, who are the players that you think can create their own shot in the NBA? Because if Rui doesn't make your list, then I'm fascinated to know who's on it.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#37 » by prime1time » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:57 am

Here's the thing about these "percentile" based arguments to state that Rui can't "create his own shot." If your criteria eliminates a guy like Rui, who obviously has created shots in the NBA, who are you left with? Guys like Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant and other stars? The real truth is that there will never be enough "real shot creators" in the NBA. And the reason why the good teams are good teams and contenders are contenders isn't that they have a bunch really good shot creators, but rather they have 2 elite ones and when the playoffs come, they let those guys dominate the ball.

If you compare Rui to what he should be compared to - 3rd or 4th option shot creators he plays the role well. As a previous poster showed, his numbers at 22 are comparable to Kuzma and Kuzma was a contributor on a championship team. On that championship team Kuzma averaged 11 shots in the regular season and 8.5 shots in the playoffs. This is the kind of role that Rui needs to play and he should be judged not by some arbitrary standard of percentiles, but to role players on actual championship-caliber teams.

Bucks 2020-2021
Brook Lopez
Bobby Portis
Pat Cannoughton
Bryn Forbes

Lakers 2019-2020
Kyle Kuzma (3rd leading scorer)
KCP
Avery Bradley
Danny Green
Dwight Howard
Rajon Rondo

Raptors 2018-2019
Serge Ibaka
Kyle Lowry
Jonas Valaciunas
Fred Vanvleet
Danny Green

These are the role players we should be compared to unless someone is stating that we should expect Rui to be a top 2 player on a championship level team. No one on this list jumps out as guy who would be in the upper percentiles of any of the categories we compare Rui to other than maybe the 3-point shooters on the list. For what we want Rui to be able to do - be a role player and contribute - he can do the job effectively. And yes, in that context Rui can create his own shot. Like Bobby Portis did in game 5 and like Rui did last year in the playoffs. That's what we need him for and he has already shown he can do that.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#38 » by doclinkin » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:12 pm

prime1time wrote: Here's the thing about these "percentile" based arguments to state that Rui can't "create his own shot."

If you compare Rui to what he should be compared to - 3rd or 4th option shot creators he plays the role well.
...
For what we want Rui to be able to do - be a role player and contribute - he can do the job effectively. And yes, in that context Rui can create his own shot.


Okay then we don't have the same definition of shot creation. If a shot creator is a pass dependent 4th option catch and shoot role-player, well alright. But at some point words have to have meaning or else we aren't communicating.

Personally I see 'shot creator' as different than 'finisher'. A shot creator is someone who can make an unassisted bucket when the offense breaks down. The argument was that we are struggling on offense and therefore Rui was the evident solution. But the numbers say he does not score efficiently. The suggestion was that he can make his own shot, citing the playoffs as an example. But the numbers say in the playoffs 88% of his baskets were assisted. That is: someone else created that shot opportunity for him.

By any other definition of shot creator the numbers also say whenever he tries to dribble or has the ball for too long he is an ineffective scorer. He doesn't pass much to create shots for other players. Does not finish well when guarded. Those are what the stats say from NBA.com.

The percentile information is relative to other players in the league. That is: if you are 14th percentile in a skill, then 86% of the players in the league are better than you. If Rui is below 50% in every stat cited then by _definition of the word average_ he is significantly below average in those basic basketball skills. Basic plays in team basketball. Does this mean he has no role on a basketball team? No it means his team based skills are lacking and need development, so he will likely not be inked in as a starter.

He needs to develop: rebounding, assists, a finishing move that scores with something other than below-average efficiency.

Is there a role for him, for what he does well? Rui is among the top in the league at finishing in transition. He showed improved results on catch and shoot 3's in the playoffs. He plays effective 1-on-1 defense against, you know, actual shot creators. There is a role for that. The team is banking on him filling in the gaps of his other skills so they can take advantage of his talent there.

All of that is a long way away from championship anything. We can cite what other championship teams have done, but we don't have an MVP calibre player at the top of their game to make up for the deficiencies of other players. As currently constructed if this team wins anything (a post season game, a first round series) it will be because of efficient team play. Until Rui develops those skills, let's not hyperventilate too loudly about what he could or might do. Or try to handwave away the fact that:

86% of the league is better than him in isolation.
74% of all players are better at spotting up.
80% are better at offensive putbacks, despite his remarkable strength and body control.

And that he is statistically either below average or totally deficient at:
cutting off the ball,
scoring off screens,
posting up,
drawing fouls /and-1 opportunities
assist %

What you might call: "Shot creation".

To say nothing of most of the basic basketball plays that constitute good play. (rebounding %, taking charges, deflections, blocked shots, etc).

He has the physical tools to be very good, but currently he falls short on the fundamentals. Especially the fundamentals of a power forward (where people keep inking him into the line-up). Let's let Wes work with him for a bit before we expect too much from him.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#39 » by payitforward » Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:35 am

This is really a funny thread. I've never seen a Wizard get the deluxe treatment from fans on this board that Rui gets!

Here's a fact: Rui was not a very good rookie. Not at all. Not horrible for a rookie -- but definitely not good.
Here's another fact: Rui was worse -- not better -- his second year as compared to his rookie year.

Did he improve in some things? Of course he did! But he got worse in others. Overall, his productivity dropped.

Can people have different opinions about the above? People can think whatever they want; no one can stop them.

But, how Rui played as a rookie & how he played his second year are both in the numbers. So, if the numbers say something got a little better, that's good. & if they say something else got worse, that's bad. & you have to look at both cases -- not just the one you like. Both.

Has Rui ever had a good game? Sure he has!
Has Rui ever had a series of good games? Once in a while he's had a stretch of 2-3 games in a row that were good. & once in a while he has had a longer stretch in which a few of them were good.

How about a bad game? Has Rui ever had one of those? Sure he has!
A series of bad games? Uh huh, he has.

Is Rui a good NBA player? No, he's not. He's not close to being a good player. Why? Because, overall, he doesn't put up good numbers, & that's how you know if a player should be called "good."

How about "average" -- is he average? No, he's not, & he's not close to average either. Why? Because, overall, he doesn't put up average numbers, & that's how you know if a player should be called "average."

Can Rui become a good player? Of course he can! But... he doesn't have forever to do it. No player does.

Why don't we hope for the best & wait to see how he does? Is that really asking too much?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Is there still room for Rui on this team? 

Post#40 » by ruffian253 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:50 am

payitforward wrote:This is really a funny thread. I've never seen a Wizard get the deluxe treatment from fans on this board that Rui gets!

Here's a fact: Rui was not a very good rookie. Not at all. Not horrible for a rookie -- but definitely not good.
Here's another fact: Rui was worse -- not better -- his second year as compared to his rookie year.

Did he improve in some things? Of course he did! But he got worse in others. Overall, his productivity dropped.

Can people have different opinions about the above? People can think whatever they want; no one can stop them.

But, how Rui played as a rookie & how he played his second year are both in the numbers. So, if the numbers say something got a little better, that's good. & if they say something else got worse, that's bad. & you have to look at both cases -- not just the one you like. Both.

Has Rui ever had a good game? Sure he has!
Has Rui ever had a series of good games? Once in a while he's had a stretch of 2-3 games in a row that were good. & once in a while he has had a longer stretch in which a few of them were good.

How about a bad game? Has Rui ever had one of those? Sure he has!
A series of bad games? Uh huh, he has.

Is Rui a good NBA player? No, he's not. He's not close to being a good player. Why? Because, overall, he doesn't put up good numbers, & that's how you know if a player should be called "good."

How about "average" -- is he average? No, he's not, & he's not close to average either. Why? Because, overall, he doesn't put up average numbers, & that's how you know if a player should be called "average."

Can Rui become a good player? Of course he can! But... he doesn't have forever to do it. No player does.

Why don't we hope for the best & wait to see how he does? Is that really asking too much?


What is considered good numbers on a bad coached team where you have the two biggest "gotta-get-mine" players in Beal and RW? Over the last 2 years, the entire 4th quarter was BB playing hero ball, at least at RW tried to get Rui involved at times. At least this year, there is resemblance of a team offense, so saying Rui is not a good NBA player is not really valid or fair based on pure numbers from last 2 seasons. Yes, he can be inconsistent, but once he has a more defined role and the sets are played to his strengths, he will be much better and the hope is that Wes can unlock that as opposed to Rui running to the Corner and just being a catch and shoot player from the corner. For some reason, Rui does gets high praises from teammates and players from around thre league,

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