Bradley Beal - Part IV

DCZards · Post #661 » by **DCZards** » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:28 am

Can’t wait to see these 2 on the court together.
https://youtube.com/shorts/9aqQ0GZREYk?feature=share

Post #662 » by **nate33** » Sun Aug 28, 2022 3:34 pm

I discussed Beal's declining shooting over the years in another thread, but decided to add to it a bit here.

I went through NBA.com's shot tracking data to look at Beal's 3-point attempts when "wide open" (nearest defender 6+ feet away), "open" (defender 4-6 feet away), and "contested" (defender 2-4 feet away). I tracked his number of attempts per game and his 3P%. Here is the data:

The first thing that jumps out is how bad Beal was last year. Percentagewise, he was the 2nd worst in the last 7 years at "contested shots (2-4 feet)" and "wide open" shots (6+ feet), and he was by far the worst of his career at "open" shots (4-6 feet) hitting a horrific 25.5% of them.

The next thing that jumps out is the steady decline in his shooting proficiency when wide open. From 2015 though 2018, he hit over 42% of his wide open 3's, peaking at an impressive 45% in 2017-18. That declined dramatically to 40.7% in 2018-19 despite no apparent change in the number of wide open looks he got. And from that point forward, he stayed at this new, lower threshold of about 40%. 40% is really not very good for wide open looks from a guy who is considered a shooter. For comparison, KCP hit 43.1% of his wide open looks last year. Otto Porter hit 47.6% one year. Bertans hit 47.7% in his first year here.

It's worth noting that his number of attempts at wide open 3's have also declined, particularly in the last 3 seasons, which presumably has a lot to do with the decline in PG play depriving him of open looks. It's understandable that the attempts have declined, but when he is getting the looks, he is still not knocking them down.

We also see a steady decline over his career in his proficiency at "open" 3's with defenders 4-6 feet away. Early in his career, he was hitting 38-40% of them. To be fair, he was not a primary scorer back then and was mostly getting rhythm shots generated by Wall. From 2018-2021, he was generating more of those looks himself, which is reflected in the increased frequency and the decreased efficiency. But at least he was pretty consistent, hitting about 34% of those looks. And then, inexplicably, it fell off a cliff last season down to a horrific 25.5%. This is the most alarming data point in the entire chart. We need to all hope that this was just a fluke. If this is the new normal, Beal is no longer anywhere close to an All-Star caliber player.

His contested shots from 2-4 feet show no particular pattern over his career, other than that he had the luxury of declining those attempts early in his career.

payitforward · Post #663 » by **payitforward** » Sun Aug 28, 2022 4:37 pm

Moved from KP thread:

Dat2U wrote:...I didn't want to max Beal out either but this narrative that he's declined or cannot produce at a high level anymore seems very presumptive....

Brad had a down year scoring the ball; there's no question about that. Plus, it was on reduced usage. OTOH, his previous year had been the 2d best overall TS% of his career. At the 2d highest usage of his career.

Brad's 3-pt % was at 30% last year. To me, that's the only reason for concern. Bring it back up to the previous year's mark of .35, & all is well.

Dat2U wrote:...He's not 34. He's not lost a step athletically. He was asked to play PG which he might have had the skillset for but not necessarily the decision making and he really pressed and struggled in the role when Dinwiddie was busy throwing his hissy fits..

Agree that he shows no decline physically.

& IMO forget "...pressed and struggled" at PG. Also forget any effect Dinwiddie might have had. In fact, Brad had no trouble at all playing the PG for some of his minutes. Doesn't mean he needs to do it again, but I didn't see it as a problem for him.

I'm not even worried about his having gotten to the line less. In fact, all he has to do is shoot the 3 at 35% & at slightly higher volume -- ala previous years -- & he'll be fine.

But... can he do it? To me that is the only thing to worry about -- he definitely needs to.

DCZards · Post #664 » by **DCZards** » Sun Aug 28, 2022 6:27 pm

Beal from a Aug. 26, 2022 article in Haute Living:

“We still have to develop as a team and get better, but [I’m confident we’ll get there]. It was Wes Unseld’s first year last year, so that was an adjustment for us as players, getting acclimated to a new system and how he wants us to play. We have about 10 new guys since the start of last year, so essentially we’re playing with a fresh new team.”

That being said, he’s realistic about learning curves. The Wizards won’t magically win the NBA Finals overnight. “We’re not going to be undefeated in the first 20 games of the season; it’s still a work in progress, and we still have certain things that need to be developed. But we are developing camaraderie right in the off-season, and hopefully that will take us into the preseason and season itself, so we can get the thing running right.”

Not that winning is off the court, so to speak — not by a long shot. As he builds, it will come. “Winning takes precedence and priority over everything,” he declares. “Obviously we have to win. We have to be better; I have to be better.”

https://hauteliving.com/2022/08/bradley-beal-is-the-face-of-the-washington-wizards-franchise/718304/

DCZards · Post #665 » by **DCZards** » Thu Sep 8, 2022 4:26 am

Beal out there supporting his boy Frances Tiafoe. Real recognizes real!
https://%20nypost.com/2022/09/07/francis-tiafoe-celebrates-us-open-win-with-friend-bradley-beal/amp/

Wizardspride · Post #666 » by **Wizardspride** » Thu Sep 8, 2022 4:49 am

Read on Twitter

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Read on Twitter

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Read on Twitter

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Kanyewest · Post #667 » by **Kanyewest** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:29 pm

Read on Twitter

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payitforward · Post #668 » by **payitforward** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:44 pm

That has to be one of the very dumbest mis-uses of statistics I have ever seen!

Last year, the Wizards as a team posted an eFG% of 53.2%. Which was the league average!

The Charlotte Hornets were at 54.4% as a team.

DCZards · Post #669 » by **DCZards** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:25 pm

payitforward wrote:That has to be one of the very dumbest mis-uses of statistics I have ever seen!

Last year, the Wizards as a team posted an eFG% of 53.2%. Which was the league average!

The Charlotte Hornets were at 54.4% as a team.

So are you saying that this statement by Hughes is not true?

Bradley Beal has never had a teammate average 20+ ppg with an eFG% above 50. Kristaps Porzingis has cleared those numbers over his last 4 seasons.

Post #670 » by **nate33** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:43 pm

payitforward wrote:That has to be one of the very dumbest mis-uses of statistics I have ever seen!

Last year, the Wizards as a team posted an eFG% of 53.2%. Which was the league average!

The Charlotte Hornets were at 54.4% as a team.

I don't think it's a mis-use of stats.

The point is, Beal has never played alongside a guy who could score at decent volume with decent efficiency, and thereby attract the defense's focus. His entire career has been alongside a very inefficient scorer (Westbrook, Wall) or no respectable scorer at all.

payitforward · Post #671 » by **payitforward** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:50 am

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:That has to be one of the very dumbest mis-uses of statistics I have ever seen!

Last year, the Wizards as a team posted an eFG% of 53.2%. Which was the league average!

The Charlotte Hornets were at 54.4% as a team.

So are you saying that this statement by Hughes is not true?

Bradley Beal has never had a teammate average 20+ ppg with an eFG% above 50. Kristaps Porzingis has cleared those numbers over his last 4 seasons.

No, & I wish I hadn't used the word "dumb," b/c Chase Hughes is obviously not dumb. I'm saying that the statement is completely meaningless. Or, more specifically, that it implies nothing whatever.

Above all, it doesn't imply that now, somehow, a) there won't be as much of a scoring requirement on Brad, i.e. that someone else will "share the load," and/or b) that he won't have to take as many "difficult" shots, because we'll have more/better scorers (in particular KP) -- the implication being that all those "difficult shots" held down Brad's scoring percentages.

In the glorious year of 2016-17, the Wizards players who posted an efg% of over 50% played a total of just under 8100 minutes. Not counting Brad. (Add Brad, & the number for the whole team that year was @10,780).

But, this last season, that number was -- believe it or not! -- @15,700. Again not counting Brad -- in this case, because Brad didn't post an efg% of 50% or better.

In short, we can assume that last season Brad was playing with far far better shooters on the floor than in 2016-7. The idea that it matters how many points-per-game any individual among them totaled is an invention.

Not to mention that KP's eFG% with us last year was slightly below the whole-team average eFG%.

Nor has KP actually posted an eFG% over 50% "his last 4 seasons." This last year it was 51%, the year before it was 54.7%, the year before that it was 50.3% & the year before that it was 0.

On his career, KP's eFG% is 50.2% -- which is terrible! Average for all NBA Centers is 57.3%.

I'm not criticizing KP. & I'm not dinging Beal either. But the point Chase Hughes wants to make is 100% & entirely illusory. It doesn't exist.

payitforward · Post #672 » by **payitforward** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:05 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:That has to be one of the very dumbest mis-uses of statistics I have ever seen!

Last year, the Wizards as a team posted an eFG% of 53.2%. Which was the league average!

The Charlotte Hornets were at 54.4% as a team.

I don't think it's a mis-use of stats.

The point is, Beal has never played alongside a guy who could score at decent volume with decent efficiency, and thereby attract the defense's focus. His entire career has been alongside a very inefficient scorer (Westbrook, Wall) or no respectable scorer at all.

That's simply not true. & in any case, if it were true, KP would not be an exception.

Don't get me wrong -- you can hope that KP becomes an above average eFG% scorer this year. You can hope anything you want to hope -- no limitations on hope. But it sure as hell isn't true of KP so far. Not overall & not last season.

Once again... I'm not criticizing KP. Anyone can see that he's immensely talented. But, not even in his 17 games with us last year did KP "score... with decent efficiency" as measured by his eFG% -- & it is only on that subject (as raised by Chase Hughes not me) that I'm commenting.

This is not about KP, & it's not about Beal. It's about the numbers Chase Hughes employs, which are not accurate, & the claim he makes based on those numbers, which would have no validity even if the numbers were a lot closer to accurate than they are!

Thus, yes, it's a substantial "mis-use of stats." There's a claim that the stats he's pointing to imply something about Beal's on-court situation this upcoming season. They most certainly do not.

AFM · Post #673 » by **AFM** » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:24 pm

Watch on YouTube

Im done **** on Beal. Only positive thoughts from now on. His contract is irrelevant.

payitforward · Post #674 » by **payitforward** » Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:41 am

Makes good sense!
Now's the time for optimism. We'll see how it turns out, but gotta have a positive stance to start with.

FAH1223 · Post #675 » by **FAH1223** » Thu Oct 6, 2022 2:13 pm

Watch on YouTube

FAH1223 · Post #676 » by **FAH1223** » Mon Oct 10, 2022 1:05 pm

bad luck

Read on Twitter

JWizmentality · Post #677 » by **JWizmentality** » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:36 pm

FAH1223 wrote:bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Seriously wtf.

gambitx777 · Post #678 » by **gambitx777** » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:41 pm

JWizmentality wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Seriously wtf.

The dude got sick? That's not really his fault

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

JWizmentality · Post #679 » by **JWizmentality** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 3:49 pm

gambitx777 wrote:
JWizmentality wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:bad luck

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Seriously wtf.
The dude got sick? That's not really his fault

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Not blaming him for getting sick, but bloody hell give this man some Flintstones vitamins. His white blood cells are as spot on as his shooting. :-?

GoneShammGone · Post #680 » by **GoneShammGone** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:59 pm

So far... I like this version of Brad. Obviously, turnovers are high, but I expect those to decrease as the team gets used to Brad and he gets used to the new guys. Some of his turnovers have come from players not expecting him to pass... that will sort itself out. The main thing is, Brad distributing the ball more is good for the Wizards. We have a lot of guys who can score now, so we don't need Brad scoring 30+ and taking 20+ shots. I think this version of Brad can be more efficient on offense than the guy we saw last season. I also feel like he's been more engaged on defense. Early returns on that front: three blocks so far in two games. Clearly its still early, but I'll be very interested to look at the defensive stats after 20 game or so and see if we can see any difference in Brad's success on that side of the ball. I think he can be a good defender, in the past he has just never really committed himself to the task. Here's hoping.