Bradley Beal - Part IV

[payitforward]

The no-trade clause is a relatively unimportant distraction.

This year -- the first of 5 years -- Bradley Beal will not be worth the money he's being paid. He won't be worth anywhere near the money he's being paid. In fact, at his very best -- whatever season you think was "peak" for him -- Bradley Beal wasn't worth the $ he'll be paid this year.

For that reason, no one is going to want to trade for Brad & take on this contract. Not any time soon at least. & that last bit is key.

The economic basis for NBA salaries is subject to change. A big enough TV contract would be capable of effecting that change on its own. I'm sure that both sides of the negotiating table were aware of that fact as they discussed what Brad would make. I'm sure that fact was/is key in establishing a dollar figure.

In that sense, it's hard for us to assess the meaning of the money involved in this deal. But, independent of that question, it is fairly obvious that -- compare to other guys making this kind of $ in the league -- Brad just isn't worth it.

[payitforward]

This is worst than anything Grunfeld ever done as GM. Like by far. This will handicap the Gizzards for at least the next half decade. And I don't want to hear that this was strictly Leonsis's decision. By all accounts, the flunkie GM is 100% on board with this, unless someone can show me otherwise.

Clearly, Sheppard took the job knowing that he ranked below Beal in the pecking order. Ted has always said he wants to make Beal a Wizard for life, and two top tier candidates who interviewed for the GM job declined to take it for mysterious reasons, presumably because they lacked full control.

I suppose one can fault Sheppard for taking the job in the first place, but I don't fault him for any bad decisions regarding Beal because he is not the one making those decisions.

Bingo!

[montestewart]

Give it a few months. Tepid applause will turn ugly if Beal struggles. I don't think Ted realizes or recognizes this either. He wasn't around for the Juwan Howard days when fans would make Juwan the butt of their frustrations. I don't think Ted/Shepp & Beal are prepared for what will happen if they get off to a typical Wizards start.

Good point. This is going to get ugly quick. And not just from the home town fans. The media is going to turn on Beal as well.

Interviews with and public statements from the team, Beal, Terd, coach, and TS will take on a surreal Wizardspeak as they dance around the contract as the single greatest reason why they suck and are unable to get better.

I don’t blame Beal for taking all the money, but as far as basketball goes, it doesn’t make me think of him as more of a winner. He’s never struck me as thick-skinned, and his recent play has often screamed hero ball hog. If that trend continues, he may be looking at his ppg more than W-L with an “I got mine” attitude which is sure to “inspire” his younger teammates and infuriate fans.

This may belong in the GMTS thread, but Sheppard doesn’t get a pass by blaming Terd. If you didn’t convince your owner not to make a disastrous move, you failed, so maybe he’s just taking the money too. Based on history, he will be here long after Beal is gone.

The reason Terd is so loyal to everyone is because he never needs a fall guy because he doesn’t believe anything has gone wrong for which he needs a patsy.

[Dark Faze]

None of these players had a no trade clause. Does Brad deserve one? No. Were the Wizards fools for giving him one? Yes. But I ask, does it matter? He's just being up front, giving the team a list of teams he doesn't want to be traded to in the event a trade does happen. I don't think it matters since the players are going to go wherever they want to go. If he has 20 teams he would approve a trade to, you can still create a bidding war between those 20 teams.

My concern is the scenario where he's at the point of his career where you're purely looking to move him as a massive expiring in year 4 or year 5 of the deal. That's the likeliest scenario of where he gets moved anyway. And those type of scenarios generally don't have a certain type of team performing the move. Could be a bad team that wants to get off some poor contracts. Could be a good team doing the same. But between that and the trade kicker, it's a very tiresome situation in dealing with a 34 year old Brad Beal.

[Gig18]

Joel Embiid, Steph Curry, James Harden, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Dwayne Wade, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady…

Bradley Beal

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Give it a few months. Tepid applause will turn ugly if Beal struggles. I don't think Ted realizes or recognizes this either. He wasn't around for the Juwan Howard days when fans would make Juwan the butt of their frustrations. I don't think Ted/Shepp & Beal are prepared for what will happen if they get off to a typical Wizards start.

Good point. This is going to get ugly quick. And not just from the home town fans. The media is going to turn on Beal as well.

Interviews with and public statements from the team, Beal, Terd, coach, and TS will take on a surreal Wizardspeak as they dance around the contract as the single greatest reason why they suck and are unable to get better.

I don’t blame Beal for taking all the money, but as far as basketball goes, it doesn’t make me think of him as more of a winner. He’s never struck me as thick-skinned, and his recent play has often screamed hero ball hog. If that trend continues, he may be looking at his ppg more than W-L with an “I got mine” attitude which is sure to “inspire” his younger teammates and infuriate fans.

This may belong in the GMTS thread, but Sheppard doesn’t get a pass by blaming Terd. If you didn’t convince your owner not to make a disastrous move, you failed, so maybe he’s just taking the money too. Based on history, he will be here long after Beal is gone.

The reason Terd is so loyal to everyone is because he never needs a fall guy because he doesn’t believe anything has gone wrong for which he needs a patsy.

With this contract Beal becomes the focus and target of all the fan’s frustration when they start losing, which they will. This team has no chance of being a winner. Beals body language, lack of effort etc will be torn apart by media and fans. The crowds at the arena will dwindle, and the few there will be booing or rooting for the opponent. Juwan Howard is the closest comparison but this will be worse.

[nate33]

Beals body language, lack of effort etc will be torn apart by media and fans. The crowds at the arena will dwindle, and the few there will be booing or rooting for the opponent.

Excellent point!

I hope Beal realizes what he has gotten himself into. He has never been able to shake his tendency to show poor body language. Now, the criticism will be FAR worse, and far more deleterious to team chemistry.

[AFM]

...most of the fun is being checked out and just making fun of this laughing stock of a franchise.

You know what's most amazing?

There are people here who don't think this franchise is a laughing stock.

There are people here who think Bradley Beal is actually worth the deal he just got.

There are people here who think Rui Hachimura was an outstanding draft pick & is a really promising young NBA player.

There are people here who think Kristaps Porzingis is an NBA star.

There are people here who think that coming out of an unbelievably deep draft like 2022 with a single player who might be pretty good is an example of successful team management.

There are people who think the Wizards' "problem" is that they keep having "bad luck."

Hard to believe, I know. But it's true all the same.

Who? Hands11? milellie?

[Dolevi]

Me reading the comments here with popcorn and smiled face (where can i find here a popcorn emoji damn), I feel like i have nothing else left to do than laugh on this reality. Poor fans. Just make him wanna leave, booooo

[Endless Loop]

I was negative before, but still want to say again that this isn't the end of the world.

How much was Beal really overpaid by? I'm thinking maybe $6 million a year. A more market level deal would have put him at $220 million for five years. It's probably still too high, but then if you're Ted you would have to consider his value to the team in branding, his character, and the fact that it would be hard to get equal value back in a sign and trade. So $6 million a year- it's not horrific.

The one thing that to me IS a significant risk is his wrist. My daughter played tennis at a high level in high school and injured her wrist and... that was the end of her tennis "career". I read somewhere else that there's like a 25% chance that a wrist injury like Beal's may not heal right. Let's hope that never happens.

[Frichuela]

I was negative before, but still want to say again that this isn't the end of the world.

How much was Beal really overpaid by? I'm thinking maybe $6 million a year. A more market level deal would have put him at $220 million for five years. It's probably still too high, but then if you're Ted you would have to consider his value to the team in branding, his character, and the fact that it would be hard to get equal value back in a sign and trade. So $6 million a year- it's not horrific.

The one thing that to me IS a significant risk is his wrist. My daughter played tennis at a high level in high school and injured her wrist and... that was the end of her tennis "career". I read somewhere else that there's like a 25% chance that a wrist injury like Beal's may not heal right. Let's hope that never happens.

Very good point. And something that many NBA pundits are not talking about it. As you said, let's hope he is in the 75%...

[AFM]

How much was Beal really overpaid by? I'm thinking maybe $6 million a year. A more market level deal would have put him at $220 million for five years. It's probably still too high, but then if you're Ted you would have to consider his value to the team in branding, his character, and the fact that it would be hard to get equal value back in a sign and trade. So $6 million a year- it's not horrific.

I think nate's analysis had a fair salary at more like 35 million a year.

[thinker07]

I don't get all the emotional response to Beal's deal. The deal is a killer for any real winning chances over the next 5 years, BUT the Wiz could not have been more clear that this deal was coming for years. There was never any real evidence that Beal was not going to resign. Maybe the no trade clause is there because Beal DOESN'T want to get traded. It really doesn't matter anyway because Ted is not going to want to trade Beal and I really doubt Beal is going to ask out. And as PIF points out above, who would want his contract anyway?

There is this broad assumption that winning a championship is everything for all players. It isn't. I don't think Beal wants to win at all costs - there just isn't any evidence of that. If Beal was just burning to win, maybe he'd play a little more defense. The other thing any player who REALLY wants to win can do is take less money so additional players can be signed. For the life of me, I can't comprehend how Beal didn't take $5 million less per year to make a show of commitment. Take $225 mil instead of $250 mil.

Now saying he doesn't burn to win a championship is not the same as saying he wants to lose all the time. All of his posturing is more about not being on a crappy losing team, IMO. That fits with Ted's theory -- Make the playoffs most years, contend for the 5 or 6 seed every now and again, avoid player drama.

I get why that's not what a lot of fans want. BUT Ted has made is perfectly clear for years now that that is what HE wants. The Beal contract doesn't reveal anything that hasn't been in plain sight for years.

[NatP4]

I don’t understand the reaction to the Beal contract. It’s not that big of deal. You weren’t trading that contract anyways, the NTC doesn’t change much. Who cares about the PO? Everyone expected him to get 5 full years.

That contract won’t prevent the wizards from building a contender. All of the other mediocre actions will(hiring mediocre coaches, being bad at drafting), and just being a dumb organization in general.

[nate33]

I don't get all the emotional response to Beal's deal. The deal is a killer for any real winning chances over the next 5 years, BUT the Wiz could not have been more clear that this deal was coming for years. There was never any real evidence that Beal was not going to resign. Maybe the no trade clause is there because Beal DOESN'T want to get traded. It really doesn't matter anyway because Ted is not going to want to trade Beal and I really doubt Beal is going to ask out. And as PIF points out above, who would want his contract anyway?

There is this broad assumption that winning a championship is everything for all players. It isn't. I don't think Beal wants to win at all costs - there just isn't any evidence of that. If Beal was just burning to win, maybe he'd play a little more defense. The other thing any player who REALLY wants to win can do is take less money so additional players can be signed. For the life of me, I can't comprehend how Beal didn't take $5 million less per year to make a show of commitment. Take $225 mil instead of $250 mil.

Now saying he doesn't burn to win a championship is not the same as saying he wants to lose all the time. All of his posturing is more about not being on a crappy losing team, IMO. That fits with Ted's theory -- Make the playoffs most years, contend for the 5 or 6 seed every now and again, avoid player drama.

I get why that's not what a lot of fans want. BUT Ted has made is perfectly clear for years now that that is what HE wants. The Beal contract doesn't reveal anything that hasn't been in plain sight for years.

I realize that they telegraphed the plan to retain Beal, but I had hoped that they would at least provide a contingency plan for trading Beal a year or two down the road when it was clear that the current team had no chance to rise above the 7th seed. So I expected Beal to be on the roster, but I assumed they would at least take small measures to make his contract more tradeable down the road - particularly since there were no other realistic suitors this offseason and Beal had no leverage.

Why not a 5-year $200M deal paying $40M a year with no raises? In 2024, if we were shopping Beal, he would have a lot more trade value with 3 years $120M left on it instead of 3 years, $161M.

[nate33]

I don’t understand the reaction to the Beal contract. It’s not that big of deal. You weren’t trading that contract anyways, the NTC doesn’t change much. Who cares about the PO? Everyone expected him to get 5 full years.

That contract won’t prevent the wizards from building a contender. All of the other mediocre actions will(hiring mediocre coaches, being bad at drafting), and just being a dumb organization in general.

It's going to be real hard to land a star in the draft if we keep picking in the 10-16 range. We can land quality starters, sure. But quality starters don't win you championships unless they are alongside an MVP caliber superstar. Beal ain't that. And his salary prevents us from ever acquiring one via trade or free agency.

Basically, our only chance at a championship in the Beal era is if we get very, very lucky and land a Giannis, Kawhi or Jokic late in the draft. That happens maybe once every 4 years.

And as I said before, the other problem here is the effect on team chemistry of having a player outrank the coach and GM. That can only work if the player in question is an MVP caliber superstar. It doesn't work if the player in question is a borderline All-Star who can't post a .500 record as the best player on the roster.

[FAH1223]

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[thinker07]

I don't get all the emotional response to Beal's deal. The deal is a killer for any real winning chances over the next 5 years, BUT the Wiz could not have been more clear that this deal was coming for years. There was never any real evidence that Beal was not going to resign. Maybe the no trade clause is there because Beal DOESN'T want to get traded. It really doesn't matter anyway because Ted is not going to want to trade Beal and I really doubt Beal is going to ask out. And as PIF points out above, who would want his contract anyway?

There is this broad assumption that winning a championship is everything for all players. It isn't. I don't think Beal wants to win at all costs - there just isn't any evidence of that. If Beal was just burning to win, maybe he'd play a little more defense. The other thing any player who REALLY wants to win can do is take less money so additional players can be signed. For the life of me, I can't comprehend how Beal didn't take $5 million less per year to make a show of commitment. Take $225 mil instead of $250 mil.

Now saying he doesn't burn to win a championship is not the same as saying he wants to lose all the time. All of his posturing is more about not being on a crappy losing team, IMO. That fits with Ted's theory -- Make the playoffs most years, contend for the 5 or 6 seed every now and again, avoid player drama.

I get why that's not what a lot of fans want. BUT Ted has made is perfectly clear for years now that that is what HE wants. The Beal contract doesn't reveal anything that hasn't been in plain sight for years.

I realize that they telegraphed the plan to retain Beal, but I had hoped that they would at least provide a contingency plan for trading Beal a year or two down the road when it was clear that the current team had no chance to rise above the 7th seed. So I expected Beal to be on the roster, but I assumed they would at least take small measures to make his contract more tradeable down the road - particularly since there were no other realistic suitors this offseason and Beal had no leverage.

Why not a 5-year $200M deal paying $40M a year with no raises? In 2024, if we were shopping Beal, he would have a lot more trade value with 3 years $120M left on it instead of 3 years, $161M.

100% agree BUT that would have had to come from Beal, not the Wiz. At the same time, I would definitely have hesitated giving the max extensions to Zion or KAT or Wall or Gilbert or Westbrook or Michael Porter, Jr or Ben Simmons or almost any player. How many of the max extensions have really worked out well for the team? Would I want to give one to Tyler Herro? To Deandre Ayton? Is Devin Booker the #1 star you want to build around on a max deal? How is Curry's deal going to look in another year or two? If Charlotte had been "smart" last summer, Miles Bridges would already have a max or at least near max extension. But that seems to be the way the NBA has gone. I think, in the end we have to say Hate the game. Don't hate the player.

[DCZards]

You folks who think Zards fan are going to boo Beal like they did Juwan are living in the past. BB has been loyal to DC and a real contributor to the larger community. Most fans appreciate that.

Howard wanted to played for Miami…until the league reversed the signing. Beal is going to get a LOT more rope with Zards fans than Howard did.

And the speculation about Beal’s contract will poison team chemistry really has no real basis,imo.

[payitforward]

How much was Beal really overpaid by? I'm thinking maybe $6 million a year... it's not horrific.

I think nate's analysis had a fair salary at more like 35 million a year.

Overpaid for delivering what? Fair salary for doing what?

What is Brad paid for? He's paid for what he delivers on the court, game after game, over a season.

Two years ago, in 2020-21, he was paid $28m+. Was he worth his salary? Sure! Or close to it anyway. He played at a high level.

Last year, he was paid $33m+. Was he worth his salary? No way. He didn't begin to deliver enough to justify his salary. Not close to enough.

So let's raise that salary by 30 plus percent & guarantee it for another 5 years, with even more raises along the way, right...?