Bradley Beal - Part IV

[PaulinVA]

Leonsis and Sheppard know exactly what they’ve done, or at least what they believe is the future of the Wizards for the next few years. ——- being the 10th best EC team (give or take a few) with no hope for anything better ———. They're smart enough and have enough basketball knowledge (Sheppard, anyway) to not believe otherwise.

What would scare the crap out of me the very possible rapid decline of Beal. He was not very good last year. Being generous, maybe in the top 100 in the league. IMO there was not a single valid explanation. So, it’s either an unexplainable one off, or that how good he’s actually become, or worse, the start of a continuing decline. Or a leveling off for a year or two and then the expected early 30s decline.

How can you take the risk of paying 50M a year for 5 years for a mediocre player? Given, that’s the worst case, but the best case - a good Beal - brings you the great reward of 10th in the East.

Actually, given the constraints of our payroll and the odds that we'd not be drafting high for the next few years assuming Brad stays sharp/healthy, isn't the BEST outcome is that Brad declines rapidly? At least then we'd be drafting high and we'd presumably be FORCED to rebuild during the remainder of Brad's contract, which is what we all truly want.

[bsilver]

Leonsis and Sheppard know exactly what they’ve done, or at least what they believe is the future of the Wizards for the next few years. ——- being the 10th best EC team (give or take a few) with no hope for anything better ———. They're smart enough and have enough basketball knowledge (Sheppard, anyway) to not believe otherwise.

What would scare the crap out of me the very possible rapid decline of Beal. He was not very good last year. Being generous, maybe in the top 100 in the league. IMO there was not a single valid explanation. So, it’s either an unexplainable one off, or that how good he’s actually become, or worse, the start of a continuing decline. Or a leveling off for a year or two and then the expected early 30s decline.

How can you take the risk of paying 50M a year for 5 years for a mediocre player? Given, that’s the worst case, but the best case - a good Beal - brings you the great reward of 10th in the East.

Actually, given the constraints of our payroll and the odds that we'd not be drafting high for the next few years assuming Brad stays sharp/healthy, isn't the BEST outcome is that Brad declines rapidly? At least then we'd be drafting high and we'd presumably be FORCED to rebuild during the remainder of Brad's contract, which is what we all truly want.

The odds of a high draft pick increase if Beal plays badly, but -
We weren’t that bad without Beal last year, and have probably improved. With all the truly tanking teams in the league, we probably don’t make it close to the bottom 5 or so. Would have to trade away some talent.
I can’t root for us to lose. No fun in that.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Wizards fans have continued to attend games, watch games on TV, follow their team, care about the franchise & the players for well more than a decade, even though we've been one of the worst in the league during that period -- possibly the worst, come to think of it.... I wonder whether there's another team that's had as bad a record as the Wizards over the last dozen seasons...?

Not only that, but they continue even now -- even though we get worse & worse. In fact, whether the team is good or not doesn't seem to affect their fandom in the slightest.

i don't always agree with pif but he's spot on here. At no point have Leonsis or Pollin felt the heat from *anyone* about their poor performance. I mean, it helps to not be a total scumbag like Danny Boy, but at some point fans have to realize that they're being scammed.

[We won't get to 49 again. In fact, it's hard to see us making the playoffs during the 5 years of Brad's contract. Certainly not R2.
But, as we've seen over the last dozen years that doesn't matter to fans. &, because it doesn't matter to fans, it also doesn't matter to Ted Leonsis.

In short, unlike Bradley Beal, we are getting exactly what we deserve.

Pretty much this. A big part of the problem is that due to the nature of the DC population, its hard for it to be a proper sports town, as a lot of the residents aren't truly geographically tied to the area.

[nate33]

Actually, given the constraints of our payroll and the odds that we'd not be drafting high for the next few years assuming Brad stays sharp/healthy, isn't the BEST outcome is that Brad declines rapidly? At least then we'd be drafting high and we'd presumably be FORCED to rebuild during the remainder of Brad's contract, which is what we all truly want.

Interesting take.

I suppose the best outcome is that Beal plays near his career best for 2 or 3 years or so and we at least get to the first round of the playoffs a couple of times. But then we need a rapid decline where he is HORRIBLE (or unavailable) in years 4 and 5 of that contract so that we tank hard with no capacity to paper over our problems with free agents because we are capped out. The final 2 years of his contract would be total rebuild years not unlike the final days of Nowitzki's contract.

Heck, with that in mind, maybe we are better off trading guys like Avdija and Kispert for more win now talent in an effort to goose the win total in the next 3 years and reduce our win totals in years 4 and 5. The last thing we need is for Avdija to pan out to be the 30th best player in the league - good enough to keep us up around 33 wins during our next rebuild stage instead of tanking properly.

[DCZards]

Actually, given the constraints of our payroll and the odds that we'd not be drafting high for the next few years assuming Brad stays sharp/healthy, isn't the BEST outcome is that Brad declines rapidly? At least then we'd be drafting high and we'd presumably be FORCED to rebuild during the remainder of Brad's contract, which is what we all truly want.

Interesting take.

I suppose the best outcome is that Beal plays near his career best for 2 or 3 years or so and we at least get to the first round of the playoffs a couple of times. But then we need a rapid decline where he is HORRIBLE (or unavailable) in years 4 and 5 of that contract so that we tank hard with no capacity to paper over our problems with free agents because we are capped out. The final 2 years of his contract would be total rebuild years not unlike the final days of Nowitzki's contract.

Heck, with that in mind, maybe we are better off trading guys like Avdija and Kispert for more win now talent in an effort to goose the win total in the next 3 years and reduce our win totals in years 4 and 5. The last thing we need is for Avdija to pan out to be the 30th best player in the league - good enough to keep us up around 33 wins during our next rebuild stage instead of tanking properly.

[payitforward]

ROFLOL !!

You can only strategize so far in advance...!

(I'm still laughing... that's the best use yet of the banghead smiley!!)

Main point remains, of course: if you tried to think of a move to hamstring this franchise, you couldn't come up with anything better than the deal we just gave Brad... no matter how hard you tried. At least I can't.

How come didn't Tommy say, "Why don't you pick up your option, Brad, & we'll work on something for next year? But, if you don't want to do that -- fine. If you & your agent will explore the market & tell me what offers you get I promise to beat any offer by at least 5% per annum. Because we want you here. Fair enough?"

What would have been wrong with that, pray tell?

[Dark Faze]

I'm not quite sure what else Wiz fans need to do to voice their frustration. I think we were bottom of the league last year by home percentage attendance and I'm sure we're bottom 5 by local tv metrics.

It's true there's a significant ambivalence and lack of heat from local media. Almost like they think it's a worthless cause not worth mentioning.

[bsilver]

ROFLOL !!

You can only strategize so far in advance...!

(I'm still laughing... that's the best use yet of the banghead smiley!!)

Main point remains, of course: if you tried to think of a move to hamstring this franchise, you couldn't come up with anything better than the deal we just gave Brad... no matter how hard you tried. At least I can't.

How come didn't Tommy say, "Why don't you pick up your option, Brad, & we'll work on something for next year? But, if you don't want to do that -- fine. If you & your agent will explore the market & tell me what offers you get I promise to beat any offer by at least 5% per annum. Because we want you here. Fair enough?"

What would have been wrong with that, pray tell?

Beal/Wizards negotiations:
Tommy: what do you want?
Beal: want to win!
Tommy: but you didn’t want to go to GSW.
Beal: they have too many good players.
Tommy: that’s what it takes to win.
Beal: oh
Tommy: how about 35 wins a year
Beal: close enough
Tommy: what else?
Beal: like to go 1 against 3 - very manly
Beal: like to complain about not getting calls
Beal: like to shoot lots of 3s, even if don’t make them anymore
Beal: want max salary
Tommy: why don’t you get some offers and we’ll better them by 5% like PIF suggested?
Beal: there’s no market - good teams have no cap space, and rebuilding teams don’t want to spend on a 29 year old on the decline
Tommy: maybe a sign and trade - Miami?
Beal: wouldn’t work - they want effort on defense
Beal: this getting a bit depressing
Tommy: wouldn’t want you to feel bad - how about that max salary?
Beal: better, but still a bit down
Tommy: and a no trade clause
Beal: you guys have worn me down - I’ll do you a favor and take it

[Dark Faze]

Don't know what to make of the GS rumor other than he just highly values being the 1A guy with the keys to the city.

[pcbothwel]

Don't know what to make of the GS rumor other than he just highly values being the 1A guy with the keys to the city.

Not taking it out on you or anyone on this board, but Im getting tired of this nonsense. The GB was filled with people stating how Beal doesnt want to win, only cares about money, selfish, etc.
He made it very clear in his presser. Winning a chip with 4 AS players and 1-2 HOF players doesnt mean much. To top that off, he has clearly seen how KD/Kyrie/Harden to BKN, Russ to LAL, and Kawhi/PG to LAC has worked out.
You can't EXPECT to win anything just by running to another city and playing AAU basketball.

We can kill the deal here or pick apart Beal's shortcomings, but stating that somehow Beal choose money and adulation over winning/greatness is the most absurd thing anyone can say.

[nate33]

Don't know what to make of the GS rumor other than he just highly values being the 1A guy with the keys to the city.

Not taking it out on you or anyone on this board, but Im getting tired of this nonsense. The GB was filled with people stating how Beal doesnt want to win, only cares about money, selfish, etc.
He made it very clear in his presser. Winning a chip with 4 AS players and 1-2 HOF players doesnt mean much. To top that off, he has clearly seen how KD/Kyrie/Harden to BKN, Russ to LAL, and Kawhi/PG to LAC has worked out.
You can't EXPECT to win anything just by running to another city and playing AAU basketball.

We can kill the deal here or pick apart Beal's shortcomings, but stating that somehow Beal choose money and adulation over winning/greatness is the most absurd thing anyone can say.

Agreed.

If Beal went to GS and won, he would get none of the credit. If he went there and lost, he would get all the blame. He saw what happened to Durant, and he isn't half as good as Durant.

I don't question Beal's character. He works way too hard every offseason for me to believe he doesn't want to win. The problem with Beal is that he just isn't in the same talent class as the real superstars in this league.

[Dark Faze]

Don't know what to make of the GS rumor other than he just highly values being the 1A guy with the keys to the city.

Not taking it out on you or anyone on this board, but Im getting tired of this nonsense. The GB was filled with people stating how Beal doesnt want to win, only cares about money, selfish, etc.
He made it very clear in his presser. Winning a chip with 4 AS players and 1-2 HOF players doesnt mean much. To top that off, he has clearly seen how KD/Kyrie/Harden to BKN, Russ to LAL, and Kawhi/PG to LAC has worked out.
You can't EXPECT to win anything just by running to another city and playing AAU basketball.

We can kill the deal here or pick apart Beal's shortcomings, but stating that somehow Beal choose money and adulation over winning/greatness is the most absurd thing anyone can say.

The Warriors were not particularly special heading into the regular season. Klay could have been completely washed, and was coming off missing two years of hoops. Draymond has declined significantly, and in a Beal trade, much of that depth would have been lost. I get your point (and Beals) about an easy ring not having much value, but that wouldn't have been a "super" team had he joined in. Chipping would have resulted in a great deal of credit to him as likely the second best player on the roster.

I do think he genuinely desires to win here, I'm not doubting that. My frustration with guys like him and Dame are that they sit there, drop a few subliminals and expect things to change. The only pressure Beals exerted on this franchise for their multiple blunders is at the negotiating table to secure his own bag. Kobe probably never gets the Gasol trade without threatening an exit and exerting pressure on the Lakers to stop sitting there mucking about. I'm just a Jimmy Butler / Kobe / Jordan kind of guy in that I think meekly sitting there taking L's is doing nothing positive for your franchise.

[payitforward]

...stating that somehow Beal chose money and adulation over winning/greatness is the most absurd thing anyone can say.

I agree 100%.

Just for starters, he didn't offer himself $250m! Ted offered it to him.

Then there's the fact -- which people seem to find it easy to forget! -- that the NBA is a business to Bradley Beal. Partly it's a business about basketball, & partly it's an entertainment business.

The huge amount of $$ that flows through it is because of the 2d part -- the entertainment part. So, why shouldn't Bradley Beal or any other NBA player try to get the biggest possible piece of that $$ to flow to him? He'd be a fool not to!

So... if the amount we pay him holds the team back from growing or getting better, don't blame Brad! Blame Ted. He is the one making decisions about entertainment as opposed to quality of the team, etc.

In short, Brad's new contract is very likely to prevent the team from improving over the next 5 years. But that problem was created by Ted Leonsis not Bradley Beal. All Brad did is say "yes."

[Kanyewest]

[closg00]

Checking-in @ #6 and in a back-handed way

Watch on YouTube

[Zonkerbl]

This team was playing lights out defense at the beginning of the year and Beal had a chance to call a players only meeting when it was starting to fall apart, get everybody to stop thinking about their contract and start thinking about winning and let the business take care of itself.

Instead he was the number one whiner and everybody on the team followed the example he set, team stopped buying into the defensive scheme and fell into pieces. He is a terrible leader and a mediocre player. Signing him to the max was a fricking monstrous mistake.

[nate33]

Over the past week, I've seen 4 or 5 midseason trade proposals on the Trade Board involving Beal going out, with expiring contracts (usually Westbrook) plus 3 or 4 mid-to-late 1st round picks coming back. All of the trades looked fine from my perspective, and most other sides seemed interested as well.

It's possible that it will be easier to dump this Beal contract for value than I initially thought. Maybe resigning him to keep the asset will turn out to be the right thing to do.

[doclinkin]

Over the past week, I've seen 4 or 5 midseason trade proposals on the Trade Board involving Beal going out, with expiring contracts (usually Westbrook) plus 3 or 4 mid-to-late 1st round picks coming back. All of the trades looked fine from my perspective, and most other sides seemed interested as well.

It's possible that it will be easier to dump this Beal contract for value than I initially thought. Maybe resigning him to keep the asset will turn out to be the right thing to do.

Only if he plays better than last year. Right now people are giving him a pass on his performance, remembering him as the player he had been. Maybe he adjusts to the new rules, maybe his fitness suffered from the 3 COVID infections and he recuperates from that and the wrist injury, maybe he (re)gains an outside shot. If not, yeah it will be a long few years.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Over the past week, I've seen 4 or 5 midseason trade proposals on the Trade Board involving Beal going out, with expiring contracts (usually Westbrook) plus 3 or 4 mid-to-late 1st round picks coming back. All of the trades looked fine from my perspective, and most other sides seemed interested as well.

It's possible that it will be easier to dump this Beal contract for value than I initially thought. Maybe resigning him to keep the asset will turn out to be the right thing to do.

This is encouraging!

Beal for Westbrook and 4 picks would be just what this franchise needs. I cannot see Beal refusing a deal to LAL. I hope this comes to fruition.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Over the past week, I've seen 4 or 5 midseason trade proposals on the Trade Board involving Beal going out, with expiring contracts (usually Westbrook) plus 3 or 4 mid-to-late 1st round picks coming back. All of the trades looked fine from my perspective, and most other sides seemed interested as well.

It's possible that it will be easier to dump this Beal contract for value than I initially thought. Maybe resigning him to keep the asset will turn out to be the right thing to do.

Only if he plays better than last year. Right now people are giving him a pass on his performance, remembering him as the player he had been. Maybe he adjusts to the new rules, maybe his fitness suffered from the 3 COVID infections and he recuperates from that and the wrist injury, maybe he (re)gains an outside shot. If not, yeah it will be a long few years.

...and back down to earth with expectations. Back to Wizards reality.