Porzingis + 2nd round pick for Dinwiddie, Bertans

[pcbothwel]

I was struck by comment at some point by PIF that Porzingis was a bad player.
Hadn't seen him enough and didn't really understand his what his game was.
So I didn't understand what PIF's comment was based on.

I get it now, I think. I'm probably not saying anything particularly revelatory
but it comes down to his shot selection which at times ie too often, more
resembles that of a SG/SF than a 7-3 C. On the one hand, and I'm saying this
based on the eye test mostly, he shoots those shots at a fairly decent percentage
but the problem is he's a 5 and a first option offensive player, or thinks he is.
He's not that efficient at what is his bread and butter. One wonders how much
his choice of shots can be improved upon. What am I missing here if anything?

You and PIF are missing quite a bit.
I think PIF has his opinion and is being blinded. He routinely dumbs things down and walks through what a player does on a per possession basis to try and explain their pros and cons. I appreciate this analysis because it certainly is not a catch all, but gives a nice, clean breakdown. He doesnt care about position, what draft pick you are, or what short comings you are perceived to have. He simply looks at the box score and breakdown. I'd love for him to do the same KP and see what he finds.

KP is averaging a per 36 of 28 / 11 / 4 with 3 STOCKs, a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, a TS of 60%, and a BPM of 5.3.... All on a 31%+ usage...Ridiculous.

If you walk down what KP provides us, its nothing short of excellent for 2nd/3rd piece.
He is putting up KAT numbers, which far exceed anything a fan favorite like Christian Wood or Siakim has ever done.

But he's a "Bad player"....right.

[dobrojim]

I was struck by comment at some point by PIF that Porzingis was a bad player.
Hadn't seen him enough and didn't really understand his what his game was.
So I didn't understand what PIF's comment was based on.

I get it now, I think. I'm probably not saying anything particularly revelatory
but it comes down to his shot selection which at times ie too often, more
resembles that of a SG/SF than a 7-3 C. On the one hand, and I'm saying this
based on the eye test mostly, he shoots those shots at a fairly decent percentage
but the problem is he's a 5 and a first option offensive player, or thinks he is.
He's not that efficient at what is his bread and butter. One wonders how much
his choice of shots can be improved upon. What am I missing here if anything?

The guy is posting 28 points per 36 on a TS% of .600, with virtually no turnovers. I couldn't be happier with his production.

I guess I was going by old numbers and didn't realize his TS% was as high as that.
Is he a #1 option though?

[FAH1223]

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[9 and 20]

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A guy they just signed last offseason, and one they had to cobble together a 5 team trade in order to obtain, is now kind of feuding with our rookie head coach. Both these guys had pretty decent reputations before coming to the Wiz and now both, in half a season, have taken hits.

There are worse organizations out there. Maybe Sacramento, maybe the Knicks with Dolan. But we are bottom 5 for sure. Why any free agent would sign with this team is beyond me. Maybe we attract guys like Bertans who doesn't care enough about basketball to not get fat, or Dinwiddie coming off a torn ACL. And we only get them if we overpay them.

This team is horrible though. Everything about it just screams dumpster fire.

[smoothSeph]

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"... and let us go the playoffs."

Like you had anything to do with that. But you definitely played a role in why we're not in contention

[payitforward]

I was struck by comment at some point by PIF that Porzingis was a bad player....

The guy is posting 28 points per 36 on a TS% of .600, with virtually no turnovers. I couldn't be happier with his production.

Oh sure, but you fail to mention that this is a career high in scoring & a career high in TS% -- & that he's posting career highs in rebounding, assists, & steals too.

The bum!

[payitforward]

...I think PIF has his opinion and is being blinded. He routinely dumbs things down and walks through what a player does on a per possession basis to try and explain their pros and cons. I appreciate this analysis because it certainly is not a catch all, but gives a nice, clean breakdown. He doesnt care about position, what draft pick you are, or what short comings you are perceived to have. He simply looks at the box score and breakdown. I'd love for him to do the same KP and see what he finds.

KP is averaging a per 36 of 28 / 11 / 4 with 3 STOCKs, a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, a TS of 60%, and a BPM of 5.3.... All on a 31%+ usage...Ridiculous.

If you walk down what KP provides us, its nothing short of excellent for 2nd/3rd piece.
He is putting up KAT numbers, which far exceed anything a fan favorite like Christian Wood or Siakim has ever done.

But he's a "Bad player"....right.

You're obviously being blinded by these gaudy, simple-minded numbers box score numbers you're quoting, man. You need to look far more closely. You can't just say "36 of 28" & expect people to understand you! Not unless you break down the shortcomings of his pick position.

Not to mention that you aren't considering the incredible advantages a guy who is 7'3" has when it comes to space travel -- I mean... what a head start, right? How is that fair?

Now let me be serious.... Anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together can see that Kristaps Porzingis is playing his ass off with the Wizards.

You say he's "putting up KAT numbers," but the fact is that he's putting up significantly better numbers for the Wizards than KAT has for Minny this season.

Now... on his career, KP has never played a season at this level. But, so what? If he keeps doing it (& stays injury-free)... wow! In that case, not only is he NOT a "bad player," he is a star.

[pcbothwel]

Now... on his career, KP has never played a season at this level. But, so what? If he keeps doing it (& stays injury-free)... wow! In that case, not only is he NOT a "bad player," he is a star.

Sorry PIF, I cant let you off the hook that easy. I respect your opinion, which is really the only reason im sticking on this point.
So lets establish a couple of things:
1) For player with KPs experience (I.E 26 y/o and in his 6th year), you would assume that player is just now entering a 3-4 year prime.
2) To get the most accurate representation of what a plyer "Is", you would use the most recent data. Now, this data may be skewed due to small sample size, so you could use previous data to a certain extent.

With that said, lets look at KP's career in 3 groups amounting to 2 seasons each.
2015-17:
Per36: 19 & 8.6; AST:TOV = 1.6:2
Advanced: TS = 53%; BPM = 0.6; ORtg/DRtg of 106/106; Usage = 24%

2017-20:
Per36: 24 & 9; AST:TOV = 1.7:2
Advanced: TS = 55%; BPM = 1.9; ORtg/DRtg of 108/107; Usage = 29%

2020-12:
Per36: 24 & 10; AST:TOV = 2.4:1.7
Advanced: TS = 58%; BPM = 2.9; ORtg/DRtg of 116/109; Usage = 28%

You seem to insinuate that KP has been a bust and is now having a breakout in DC that, while great, is simply a blip that doesnt align with his historical numbers... I see a player that has improved in almost every facet of basketball and is now entering his peak in DC. Now, we talk about his contract or injury history, but you specifically mentioned that neither of these variables were included in you assessment that KP is a "Bad Player".

Please explain how you see it differently.

[payitforward]

I'm not sure where you're heading with this. Except maybe...

I wrote that KP is a bad player. That was sloppy of me.

What I should have written was "in his career up to now, KP has been a bad player." If you look at his numbers for those seasons -- including his time in Dallas this very year -- they support the characterization. They were, overall, below average for an NBA Center in every one of those seasons.

OTOH, maybe one should not equate "below average" with "bad." In which case, I was still being sloppy.

There are of course no "bad" basketball players in the NBA. So, even in that case, I might have been less careful than I should have be in what I was writing. Probably I should have written: "on his NBA career so far, Kristaps Porzingis -- who came into the league at 20 years old & was viewed as a phenomenon -- has been something of a disappointment."

But, maybe the problem is in the characterization itself, i.e. in judgmental words like "bad" or even "disappointment."

So, rather than making a judgment, let me just describe what I can:

In no season of KP's career has he put up numbers per 40 minutes that were as good, overall, as an average player at his position. Please don't respond by saying he's scored a lot of points per 40 minutes in those seasons. I can read, so I see that. But, his career TS% is .549 -- well below average for a 4 or 5.

OTOH, for us, he's posting a TS% North of 60%, which is great on volume shooting. Especially since for some reason he isn't making his 3s at a clip commensurate w/ his career. He's scoring 20% more points per 40 minutes than he did with Dallas this season, & he's doing it at a way higher TS% -- fantastic!

His offensive boards are up, his defensive boards are up, his assists are up -- in all he's just playing extremely well. As is obvious. Moreover, he seems to be enjoying himself, & his teammates enjoy playing with him. Not to mention that, as nate as emphasized, they are playing better with him on the court than they did before the trade.

If he continues to play this way, then to be sure it will be ridiculous to describe him in any way except as a really good player! Based on his current play that's what he is. Above all, a good player who makes his teammates better is a really really good thing to have!

& of course if that's how it works out, the rest of your description will be right too -- he'll have entered his prime. No problem!

[GoneShammGone]

The problem I have with KP is that whether this latest streak of good play is sustainable or not doesn't really matter for us. He doesn't fit our timeline.

I mean, if he plays like this next year and plays 70 games (or even 60), I'm pretty sure he's going to opt out of that last year at 36 million, and if we want to sign him, we will need to pay him the max, which I don't think we will be able to do after extending Bradley Beal. On the other hand, if he falls back to earth next year, or his usual health problems crop up and he misses 40+ games, then he'll opt in for the last year. In which case, we'll be overpaying for a guy who can't stay on the court and isn't really a star.

Next year is really the only window for us to benefit from KP. Maybe some of you cap experts can crunch the numbers, but is there really a path forward for this team with both KP and Brad signed to the max?

[FAH1223]

The problem I have with KP is that whether this latest streak of good play is sustainable or not doesn't really matter for us. He doesn't fit our timeline.

I mean, if he plays like this next year and plays 70 games (or even 60), I'm pretty sure he's going to opt out of that last year at 36 million, and if we want to sign him, we will need to pay him the max, which I don't think we will be able to do after extending Bradley Beal. On the other hand, if he falls back to earth next year, or his usual health problems crop up and he misses 40+ games, then he'll opt in for the last year. In which case, we'll be overpaying for a guy who can't stay on the court and isn't really a star.

Next year is really the only window for us to benefit from KP. Maybe some of you cap experts can crunch the numbers, but is there really a path forward for this team with both KP and Brad signed to the max?

I doubt he's opting out.

But yes, you can keep both Beal at $48M and Porzingis at $42M or whatever.

Salary cap will probably get to close to $130M and luxury tax line will get up towards $160M by then.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

The problem I have with KP is that whether this latest streak of good play is sustainable or not doesn't really matter for us. He doesn't fit our timeline.

I mean, if he plays like this next year and plays 70 games (or even 60), I'm pretty sure he's going to opt out of that last year at 36 million, and if we want to sign him, we will need to pay him the max, which I don't think we will be able to do after extending Bradley Beal. On the other hand, if he falls back to earth next year, or his usual health problems crop up and he misses 40+ games, then he'll opt in for the last year. In which case, we'll be overpaying for a guy who can't stay on the court and isn't really a star.

Next year is really the only window for us to benefit from KP. Maybe some of you cap experts can crunch the numbers, but is there really a path forward for this team with both KP and Brad signed to the max?

I doubt he's opting out.

But yes, you can keep both Beal at $48M and Porzingis at $42M or whatever.

Salary cap will probably get to close to $130M and luxury tax line will get up towards $160M by then.

Yeah. Agreed. I utterly disagree with the assessments/recollections in GSG's post. However, the Cap this next year is forecast to be $121m and for 2023-2024 to be $127m. The 2023-2024 is, imo, likely to be moved up by a couple of mill.

More to the point - teams can sign their own players (whose Bird rights they own - as they do in the Beal and KP cases) to the max. Just have to pay the tax.

[GoneShammGone]

...

I doubt he's opting out.

But yes, you can keep both Beal at $48M and Porzingis at $42M or whatever.

Salary cap will probably get to close to $130M and luxury tax line will get up towards $160M by then.

Yeah. Agreed. I utterly disagree with the assessments/recollections in GSG's post. However, the Cap this next year is forecast to be $121m and for 2023-2024 to be $127m. The 2023-2024 is, imo, likely to be moved up by a couple of mill.

More to the point - teams can sign their own players (whose Bird rights they own - as they do in the Beal and KP cases) to the max. Just have to pay the tax.

Yeah, but this is Ted Leonsis's Wizards we're talking about... he's never going to pay the tax!

Honestly I really like watching KP play, and I hope he stays. He's got to be the most talented and exciting player to wear a Wizards uni since Gil was here. Maybe my natural depression that comes from being a long-time Wizards fan is coloring my view here, but I do worry that KP/Beal isn't a sustainable plan for going forward.

As for KP opting out... if he extends his current streak of play through next season (high usage, .600+ TS, good rebounding and rim protection) don't you think he would command a max deal?

[DCZards]

Yeah, but this is Ted Leonsis's Wizards we're talking about... he's never going to pay the tax!

Honestly I really like watching KP play, and I hope he stays. He's got to be the most talented and exciting player to wear a Wizards uni since Gil was here. Maybe my natural depression that comes from being a long-time Wizards fan is coloring my view here, but I do worry that KP/Beal isn't a sustainable plan for going forward.

As for KP opting out... if he extends his current streak of play through next season (high usage, .600+ TS, good rebounding and rim protection) don't you think he would command a max deal?

Leonsis paid the luxury tax in 2017 when the Zards resigned Otto P.

[NatP4]

What timeline are we even talking about? The wizards don’t compete for a championship, we aim for a nice 2nd round exit and some nice feel good stories.

[pcbothwel]

I'm not sure where you're heading with this. Except maybe...

I wrote that KP is a bad player. That was sloppy of me.

What I should have written was "in his career up to now, KP has been a bad player." If you look at his numbers for those seasons -- including his time in Dallas this very year -- they support the characterization. They were, overall, below average for an NBA Center in every one of those seasons.

So, rather than making a judgment, let me just describe what I can:

In no season of KP's career has he put up numbers per 40 minutes that were as good, overall, as an average player at his position. Please don't respond by saying he's scored a lot of points per 40 minutes in those seasons. I can read, so I see that. But, his career TS% is .549 -- well below average for a 4 or 5.

Im still trying to process this.
You take a player that came into the year at 20 and is now 26 (6 seasons). You seem to value what he did at 20/21 the same as we he has done over the last 2 years... which makes zero sense.
Dejounte Murray, Devin Booker, Garland... all players who have made tremendous improvements. Even our own Brad Beal.

If you look at these players Career averages at 23/34, you dont even get a starting caliber player. But if you properly weight their more recent success over their early career failures, then you would clearly see where their career would go.

I mean, what are we even talking about. Look at Murray this year vs his career up to this point... which player is he? How about Bookers or Beals first 4 years?

To me, you have to value what KP has done the last 2 years over anything else.
And when you do so, you get the following as I previously mentioned:

2020-22:
Per36: 24 & 10; AST:TOV = 2.4:1.7
Advanced: TS = 58%; BPM = 2.9; ORtg/DRtg of 116/109; Usage = 28%

Can you list a couple Centers that you consider an "average player at his position"?
Again, Im trying to establish where KP lines up. Also, please take minutes & usage into consideration. I dont want to get in some back in forth about how good some big is that plays 12-15 MPG and has a usage of 15%.

[doclinkin]

...

I doubt he's opting out.

But yes, you can keep both Beal at $48M and Porzingis at $42M or whatever.

Salary cap will probably get to close to $130M and luxury tax line will get up towards $160M by then.

Yeah. Agreed. I utterly disagree with the assessments/recollections in GSG's post. However, the Cap this next year is forecast to be $121m and for 2023-2024 to be $127m. The 2023-2024 is, imo, likely to be moved up by a couple of mill.

More to the point - teams can sign their own players (whose Bird rights they own - as they do in the Beal and KP cases) to the max. Just have to pay the tax.

Yeah, but this is Ted Leonsis's Wizards we're talking about... he's never going to pay the tax!

He has already paid the tax. For a losing team, even. To keep the John Wall/Otto Porter squad together. The Lux tax just gets progressively nastier if you stay in that range for multiple years.

Edit-- what Zards said.

But to add value and context: Thing is, Ted likes to make Ted look good. If Porzingis played in a way that got the Wizards good press, Ted would primp and preen and strut through various interviews, and the team would re-sign the Zinger for resurrecting the good name of the franchise. And you know we love international players. They tend not to have inconvenient friends that might make the team uncomfortable in the media. If we won a few games and looked fine doing it, Ted would risk the lux tax for a minute. But the new TV deal kicks in in 2025, Ted believes it is important to extend stars early and lock them into long contracts because by the end of the contract they are bargains relative to the market. So far that hasn't proven true (ok blame injury) but it is a core part of his philosophy.

[GoneShammGone]

Yeah, but this is Ted Leonsis's Wizards we're talking about... he's never going to pay the tax!

Honestly I really like watching KP play, and I hope he stays. He's got to be the most talented and exciting player to wear a Wizards uni since Gil was here. Maybe my natural depression that comes from being a long-time Wizards fan is coloring my view here, but I do worry that KP/Beal isn't a sustainable plan for going forward.

As for KP opting out... if he extends his current streak of play through next season (high usage, .600+ TS, good rebounding and rim protection) don't you think he would command a max deal?

Leonsis paid the luxury tax in 2017 when the Zards resigned Otto P.

I am actually shocked to learn this. Does this mean that my single-minded view of Ted as the cheapskate source of all the Wizards problems is wrong?

So.... if the money doesn't prevent it, what do people think of a Brad Beal / KP core going forward? If KP stays relatively healthy, what is the best case scenario? Can they form the basis for a contender? Most of my doubts center on Brad's attitude. I've grown really disappointed in Brad's leadership and competitiveness. I'm still hoping for a Beal sign and trade this summer.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, but this is Ted Leonsis's Wizards we're talking about... he's never going to pay the tax!

Honestly I really like watching KP play, and I hope he stays. He's got to be the most talented and exciting player to wear a Wizards uni since Gil was here. Maybe my natural depression that comes from being a long-time Wizards fan is coloring my view here, but I do worry that KP/Beal isn't a sustainable plan for going forward.

As for KP opting out... if he extends his current streak of play through next season (high usage, .600+ TS, good rebounding and rim protection) don't you think he would command a max deal?

Leonsis paid the luxury tax in 2017 when the Zards resigned Otto P.

I am actually shocked to learn this. Does this mean that my single-minded view of Ted as the cheapskate source of all the Wizards problems is wrong?

So.... if the money doesn't prevent it, what do people think of a Brad Beal / KP core going forward? If KP stays relatively healthy, what is the best case scenario? Can they form the basis for a contender? Most of my doubts center on Brad's attitude. I've grown really disappointed in Brad's leadership and competitiveness. I'm still hoping for a Beal sign and trade this summer.

I think they've boxed themselves in a position where they almost have to keep Beal. His trade value has plummeted to the point where they're not going to get enough for him to start a rebuild. If they were going to rebuild, they should have done it a long time ago.

As far as Zinger, he's done real well here in a very low pressure situation. He's got to show he can do this when the expectations are higher. When he was with a legit superstar in Dallas, he wasn't doing as well. Beal also has major questionmarks. We really don't know what we have going forward. A commitment to defense and ball-movement is probably needed.

[payitforward]

I'm not sure where you're heading with this. Except maybe...

I wrote that KP is a bad player. That was sloppy of me.

What I should have written was "in his career up to now, KP has been a bad player." If you look at his numbers for those seasons -- including his time in Dallas this very year -- they support the characterization. They were, overall, below average for an NBA Center in every one of those seasons.

So, rather than making a judgment, let me just describe what I can:

In no season of KP's career has he put up numbers per 40 minutes that were as good, overall, as an average player at his position. Please don't respond by saying he's scored a lot of points per 40 minutes in those seasons. I can read, so I see that. But, his career TS% is .549 -- well below average for a 4 or 5.

Im still trying to process this.
You take a player that came into the year at 20 and is now 26 (6 seasons). You seem to value what he did at 20/21 the same as we he has done over the last 2 years... which makes zero sense.
Dejounte Murray, Devin Booker, Garland... all players who have made tremendous improvements. Even our own Brad Beal.

If you look at these players Career averages at 23/34, you dont even get a starting caliber player. But if you properly weight their more recent success over their early career failures, then you would clearly see where their career would go.

I mean, what are we even talking about. Look at Murray this year vs his career up to this point... which player is he? How about Bookers or Beals first 4 years?

To me, you have to value what KP has done the last 2 years over anything else.
And when you do so, you get the following as I previously mentioned:

2020-22:
Per36: 24 & 10; AST:TOV = 2.4:1.7
Advanced: TS = 58%; BPM = 2.9; ORtg/DRtg of 116/109; Usage = 28%

Can you list a couple Centers that you consider an "average player at his position"?
Again, Im trying to establish where KP lines up. Also, please take minutes & usage into consideration. I dont want to get in some back in forth about how good some big is that plays 12-15 MPG and has a usage of 15%.

I'm trying to figure out what exactly you are arguing with/about.

Porzingis has been terrific for us. Had another outstanding game vs. Minny last night. If he plays this way going forward in his career... wow! Both he & the trade for him will look great. & I'm not saying he won't -- how in hell would I know?

As to your examples of young players who were highly touted but took a while, sure, but that list doesn't tell us whether Porzingis will wind up on it! Hope he does, obviously, but there's an equally long list of young players who were touted but didn't wind up panning out at the high level predicted for them.

You can look at Porzingis' career numbers per 40 minutes just as easily as I can. & that's all you need to do. I'm not saying anything about his years in the league to date except to point to those numbers.

Kristaps Porzingis is killing it for us. Guy's playing great. May it continue for many years! I'm not a hater; I want him to stay this productive & to stay healthy too!

So... what are you arguing about? Maybe it comes down to this: do you think that in 2020-21 Porzingis had a good season for Dallas? That he had another one -- for Dallas, I mean -- this year? Where "good season" means "put up numbers per 40 minutes that, overall, were above average?" Is that it?

If that's what you think, then you're just wrong. He didn't. Of course, you may mean "good season" in some other way, i.e. not just numbers. In that case, you may be right -- but that has little to do with what he is doing as a Wizard, which is putting up terrific numbers.