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Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread.

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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#21 » by doclinkin » Wed Mar 9, 2022 3:59 am

badinage wrote:What we saw the other night was what, I hope, we’re going to see: the Zinger working out of the high post.

He doesn’t need to be on the block — and actually he shouldn’t be. Nor should he be allowed to drift out to 3 with regularity. The high post is where his skills are showcased. It’s perfect. And we saw the offense when he was there. Pulling defenders away, or even just making them watch him. And the ball swung. Lanes were open. Space was created. A thing of beauty.

He doesn’t have to bang, and yet he can still be a force.


This is closer to where I am. He doesn't have to bang down low to have a strong effect.

Before this year Porzingis was a career .363 shooter from 3. That's decent. Good for a big. To be of significant use he just needs to return to form on his outside shot and stay healthy. There are those who would make the argument that because the Zinger is listed as a Center, that his stats should reach a certain marker of rebounds, FG%, etc. If this hard and fast rule is violated then he is a terrible player because he is a Center and all Centers xyz.

However. Tall as he is, his best role is different than most centers on offense. His job on that end is to invert the defense and draw opposing bigs outside. Yes centers are getting quicker etc, however, they are still slower to recover than smalls, and at 7'3" with a jumper that is held high overhead Porzingis forces bigs to guard him close. He is still a threat to blow past many bigger slower centers, but he is tall enough to shoot over most of the quicker ones. More importantly he opens up the interior for other players to score.

He doesn't have to be an all-star in this role, just good enough to force teams to guard him straight up. Consider the effect Bertans had in inverting the court when he was hitting his 3's. He forced teams to send a PF to the outside, which bumped up the shooting percentages of the players sharing the court with him. A Porzingis who hits 3's will have the same effect drawing either Big outside, centers or the PF. Porzingis' offensive rebound numbers will look anemic, BUT, so will the defensive boards of opposing Bigs.

That point is key though. With a big shooting from outside you need proficient rebounders at the wing and forward positions. Long rebounds will be available for heads-up players to scoop. We are deep in multi-position players 6'7" and up. We can play small ball with tall players. Kuzma, Deni, Kispert, Gill, Satoransky are all smart players who play the spaces between opponents. Timing, cutting, passing, opportunistic rebounding. Then there is Rui who has tended to drive into the teeth of the defense, but with more space on the interior I can see him developing confidence and timing to attack the middle with aggression and success.

None of it makes our squad world beaters, but a smart coach can use what Porzingis does well to make the players around him better. I'm intrigued to see how it works, when he is healthy.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#22 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Wed Mar 9, 2022 4:43 am

Ruzious wrote:Which reminds me - if we do make a trade with Philly, please get them to include the 50th pick from the 2021 draft - Filip Petrusev.

Yeah. I'm a big Petrusev believer. I think 50 was absurd - I thought mid-late 20s was the real realm. We will see if the 76ers don't want to pick up that pick, and what is for me a sure fire combination with Embiid.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#23 » by Bob8 » Wed Mar 9, 2022 8:20 am

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Which reminds me - if we do make a trade with Philly, please get them to include the 50th pick from the 2021 draft - Filip Petrusev.

Yeah. I'm a big Petrusev believer. I think 50 was absurd - I thought mid-late 20s was the real realm. We will see if the 76ers don't want to pick up that pick, and what is for me a sure fire combination with Embiid.


I have watched many of his games in Europe. Believe me, Petrusev is far away from being able to play in Nba. He's almost unplayable in Euroleague at the moment. His D being particularly bad. Very unlikely that he can become solid Nba player.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#24 » by queridiculo » Wed Mar 9, 2022 9:38 am

CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:I do wonder if he'll regress to the mean with a 43.85 PER after his debut.


I mean, Dinwiddie is considered a NBA first teamer now so surely the same could be in the cards for Porzingis.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#25 » by Bob8 » Wed Mar 9, 2022 10:19 am

B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Which reminds me - if we do make a trade with Philly, please get them to include the 50th pick from the 2021 draft - Filip Petrusev.

Yeah. I'm a big Petrusev believer. I think 50 was absurd - I thought mid-late 20s was the real realm. We will see if the 76ers don't want to pick up that pick, and what is for me a sure fire combination with Embiid.


This is a player with much bigger upside,

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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#26 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 9, 2022 1:04 pm

Well yeah, Victor's regarded as the number 1 prospect for the 2023 draft. He better have a much higher upside than the 50th pick in the 2021 draft.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#27 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 9, 2022 1:36 pm

doclinkin wrote:That point is key though. With a big shooting from outside you need proficient rebounders at the wing and forward positions. Long rebounds will be available for heads-up players to scoop. We are deep in multi-position players 6'7" and up. We can play small ball with tall players. Kuzma, Deni, Kispert, Gill, Satoransky are all smart players who play the spaces between opponents. Timing, cutting, passing, opportunistic rebounding. Then there is Rui who has tended to drive into the teeth of the defense, but with more space on the interior I can see him developing confidence and timing to attack the middle with aggression and success.

None of it makes our squad world beaters, but a smart coach can use what Porzingis does well to make the players around him better. I'm intrigued to see how it works, when he is healthy.

Kuzma and Avdija in particular should benefit a great deal from Porzingis drawing the opposition's center away. They're both really active rebounders who track the ball and predict the bounce off the rim, and know how to rebound outside their immediate area.

Unfortunately, Rui has a terrible aptitude for this. He has no ability whatsoever to rebound outside his area. When a shot goes up, he'll box out the guy nearest to him, but otherwise he just stands still and hopes the ball bounces his way. We should probably make an effort to play most of Rui's minutes when Porzingis is off the floor. Indeed, with his outside shot, maybe he can be the play the Porzingis role when Porzingis sits.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#28 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 9, 2022 2:45 pm

doclinkin wrote:
badinage wrote:What we saw the other night was what, I hope, we’re going to see: the Zinger working out of the high post.

He doesn’t need to be on the block — and actually he shouldn’t be. Nor should he be allowed to drift out to 3 with regularity. The high post is where his skills are showcased. It’s perfect. And we saw the offense when he was there. Pulling defenders away, or even just making them watch him. And the ball swung. Lanes were open. Space was created. A thing of beauty.

He doesn’t have to bang, and yet he can still be a force.


This is closer to where I am. He doesn't have to bang down low to have a strong effect.

Before this year Porzingis was a career .363 shooter from 3. That's decent. Good for a big. To be of significant use he just needs to return to form on his outside shot and stay healthy. There are those who would make the argument that because the Zinger is listed as a Center, that his stats should reach a certain marker of rebounds, FG%, etc. If this hard and fast rule is violated then he is a terrible player because he is a Center and all Centers xyz.

However. Tall as he is, his best role is different than most centers on offense. His job on that end is to invert the defense and draw opposing bigs outside. Yes centers are getting quicker etc, however, they are still slower to recover than smalls, and at 7'3" with a jumper that is held high overhead Porzingis forces bigs to guard him close. He is still a threat to blow past many bigger slower centers, but he is tall enough to shoot over most of the quicker ones. More importantly he opens up the interior for other players to score.

He doesn't have to be an all-star in this role, just good enough to force teams to guard him straight up. Consider the effect Bertans had in inverting the court when he was hitting his 3's. He forced teams to send a PF to the outside, which bumped up the shooting percentages of the players sharing the court with him. A Porzingis who hits 3's will have the same effect drawing either Big outside, centers or the PF. Porzingis' offensive rebound numbers will look anemic, BUT, so will the defensive boards of opposing Bigs.

That point is key though. With a big shooting from outside you need proficient rebounders at the wing and forward positions. Long rebounds will be available for heads-up players to scoop. We are deep in multi-position players 6'7" and up. We can play small ball with tall players. Kuzma, Deni, Kispert, Gill, Satoransky are all smart players who play the spaces between opponents. Timing, cutting, passing, opportunistic rebounding. Then there is Rui who has tended to drive into the teeth of the defense, but with more space on the interior I can see him developing confidence and timing to attack the middle with aggression and success.

None of it makes our squad world beaters, but a smart coach can use what Porzingis does well to make the players around him better. I'm intrigued to see how it works, when he is healthy.

Me too. It's not like anyone would question whether it's great for Porzingis to play the way he did in his first game as a Wizard -- of course it is! &, obviously, it's not the first outstanding game he's had in his career -- & I bet it won't be the last one either!

But the best guide to how he'll play in the future, overall, is how well he has played in the past, overall. I.e. it's extremely unlikely that an NBA player in his 7th year in the league will start having an impact on wins/losses that's much different from what it's been in his first 10,000 minutes.

Doesn't mean it can't happen! Here's hoping your vision comes true!
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#29 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 9, 2022 2:57 pm

payitforward wrote:But the best guide to how he'll play in the future, overall, is how well he has played in the past, overall. I.e. it's extremely unlikely that an NBA player in his 7th year in the league will start having an impact on wins/losses that's much different from what it's been in his first 10,000 minutes.

Doesn't mean it can't happen! Here's hoping your vision comes true!

The most direct measurement of impact on wins/losses is on/off differential. Bball reference has the raw numbers (which can obviously be confounded by teammate impact).

Image

FWIW, the on/off data from RAPTOR, which uses some regression to filter out teammate effects also shows a substantially positive impact.

Porzingis has had a positive impact on wins throughout most of his career. A notable exception was last year, when he was playing on one leg and was visibly slower defensively. This year, he was pretty close to breakeven as a starter for a team with the 8th best record in the league.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#30 » by Bob8 » Wed Mar 9, 2022 3:08 pm

Ruzious wrote:Well yeah, Victor's regarded as the number 1 prospect for the 2023 draft. He better have a much higher upside than the 50th pick in the 2021 draft.


My point is that a player, who has no impact in Euroleague with 22 years, will most likely have 0 impact in Nba too. There are some exceptions, but that kind of players are mostly unplayable.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#31 » by DCZards » Wed Mar 9, 2022 3:17 pm

payitforward wrote:Me too. It's not like anyone would question whether it's great for Porzingis to play the way he did in his first game as a Wizard -- of course it is! &, obviously, it's not the first outstanding game he's had in his career -- & I bet it won't be the last one either!

But the best guide to how he'll play in the future, overall, is how well he has played in the past, overall. I.e. it's extremely unlikely that an NBA player in his 7th year in the league will start having an impact on wins/losses that's much different from what it's been in his first 10,000 minutes.

Doesn't mean it can't happen! Here's hoping your vision comes true!

Players having a different impact on wins/losses when they change teams happens more often than you probably realize. The league is full of players whose impact on wins/loses (for both good and bad) has changed significantly when they change teams, have a different role, play with new teammates, and play for a different coach in a different system.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#32 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 9, 2022 5:41 pm

We can just agree to disagree about that, Zards, although for sure it must happen sometimes! In which case, let's hope this will be one of those times!

Off to a good start, that's for sure!
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#33 » by doclinkin » Wed Mar 9, 2022 5:55 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:But the best guide to how he'll play in the future, overall, is how well he has played in the past, overall. I.e. it's extremely unlikely that an NBA player in his 7th year in the league will start having an impact on wins/losses that's much different from what it's been in his first 10,000 minutes.

Doesn't mean it can't happen! Here's hoping your vision comes true!

The most direct measurement of impact on wins/losses is on/off differential. Bball reference has the raw numbers (which can obviously be confounded by teammate impact).

Image

FWIW, the on/off data from RAPTOR, which uses some regression to filter out teammate effects also shows a substantially positive impact.

Porzingis has had a positive impact on wins throughout most of his career. A notable exception was last year, when he was playing on one leg and was visibly slower defensively. This year, he was pretty close to breakeven as a starter for a team with the 8th best record in the league.



Similarly if you look at Porzingis' 2-man line-ups, he is uniformly in the positive no matter his teammate. Whatever Porzingis is doing out there it is having a positive effect on team numbers. Points and win/loss. Even if his role differs from a traditional center. I'm curious what site PIF uses that determines the orthodoxy of "good/bad" for a typical center.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#34 » by FAH1223 » Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:46 pm

KP's numbers individual stats have been terrific in 10 games and just under 300 minutes so far.

PER of 28.

TS% of 62%.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#35 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 2, 2022 3:19 pm

Porzingis has been a revelation!

I'm amazed at how good of a post scorer he is. Basically, the offense is him setting screens at the high post until there's a switch. Once there's a switch, Porzingis posts up and the ball swings around to Porzingis down low. And Porzingis is pretty much automatic in the post against any non-center. He is also a good enough passer that defenses have to pay attention to all the back door cutting so they have a hard time doubling Porzingis. And Porzingis is also good as a roller.

I had thought Porzingis would be utilized as a pick-and-pop stretch 5, but I was totally wrong. Wes Jr. has really figured out how to weaponize him.

In 14 games now, Porzingis' per 36 numbers are:
28.1 points
10.7 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.6 blocks
0.8 steals
1.6 turnovers
.600 TS%

The combination of his heavy usage (31.6%) and his extremely low turnover% (8.2%) has been a godsend for the offense. The offense finally has a purpose: get it to Porzingis and let everyone else play off of him. And that has opened everything up for his teammates. The Wizards ORtg prior to the arrival of Porzingis was 109.5. The ORtg has been 114.7 since Porzingis' arrival.

Things have even been better since the insertion of Sato into the starting lineup. Sato really knows how to get Porzingis the ball. With Sato starting, the ORtg is 117.3. The defense has been terrific with Sato too. The DRtg in the 5 games with Sato starting is 107.8. (In the previous 60 games, the DRtg was 117.3.)
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#36 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 2, 2022 3:22 pm

I sure hope Beal can regain his off-ball form from his John Wall days. That guy would be additive to the current offense. But if Beal has lost the ability to be an efficient off-ball player, I'm no so sure if he is better than KCP in this system. At least KCP can hit 39% of his 3's while playing above-average defense. We no longer need a ball-pounding shot creator in the starting lineup.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#37 » by NatP4 » Sat Apr 2, 2022 4:29 pm

He’s 14th in the NBA in RPM. Just above Kevin Durant and James Harden, and just below Lebron James.
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#38 » by FAH1223 » Sat Apr 2, 2022 6:51 pm

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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#39 » by payitforward » Sun Apr 3, 2022 2:07 am

nate33 wrote:Porzingis has been a revelation!

I'm amazed at how good of a post scorer he is. Basically, the offense is him setting screens at the high post until there's a switch. Once there's a switch, Porzingis posts up and the ball swings around to Porzingis down low. And Porzingis is pretty much automatic in the post against any non-center. He is also a good enough passer that defenses have to pay attention to all the back door cutting so they have a hard time doubling Porzingis. And Porzingis is also good as a roller.

I had thought Porzingis would be utilized as a pick-and-pop stretch 5, but I was totally wrong. Wes Jr. has really figured out how to weaponize him.

In 14 games now, Porzingis' per 36 numbers are:
28.1 points
10.7 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.6 blocks
0.8 steals
1.6 turnovers
.600 TS%

The combination of his heavy usage (31.6%) and his extremely low turnover% (8.2%) has been a godsend for the offense. The offense finally has a purpose: get it to Porzingis and let everyone else play off of him. And that has opened everything up for his teammates. The Wizards ORtg prior to the arrival of Porzingis was 109.5. The ORtg has been 114.7 since Porzingis' arrival.

Things have even been better since the insertion of Sato into the starting lineup, who really knows how to get Porzingis the ball. With Sato starting, the ORtg is 117.3. The defense has been terrific with Sato too. The DRtg in the 5 games with Sato starting is 107.8. (In the previous 60 games, the DRtg was 117.3.)

He's been amazing w/o a doubt. As has Sato. & we're 4-1 in those games. In fact, even in our only loss - to the Bulls - we shot 32 of 53 on 2-point shots. It was the 3-point shooting which cost us the game (& not making FTs).
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Re: Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread. 

Post#40 » by payitforward » Sun Apr 3, 2022 2:41 pm

nate's analysis of the the Porzingis effect (copied from deni thread) -- brilliantly framed & written. IMO a HOF post:

nate33 wrote:When Beal went down, Wes Jr. installed the motion offense and everyone got more touches, with Kuzma being assigned the role of primary offensive threat and bail-out shot creator. ...there was modest improvement among our role players as they got more involved, but the shot efficiency just wasn't there. ...Kuzma wasn't particularly efficient, and though he tried to get others involved, he was too turnover prone to be a hub of the offense.

But when Porzingis replaced Kuzma, everything changed. Putting Porzingis in the high post allowed him to be involved with every step of the offense. He sets all the screens, and with every screen, he is a threat to roll or pop. It put a lot more strain on opposing defenses as they had to make difficult defensive decisions multiple times on every possession. The key with Porzingis is that, with his height and midrange shooting touch, he just can't be guarded by some 6-7 forward. Defenses are being penalized for switching those high screens, so either they avoid switching, which allows guys like Deni, Sato and Ish to gain the advantage as the ball handler, or they do switch, which allows Porzingis to post up a smaller player. And if they bring double team help, Porzingis is tall enough to not get flustered so he can make the correct pass leading to Kispert, Rui and KCP getting wide open looks from the corner.

The key to everything is Porzingis. He is switch-proof and that has made all the difference.
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