What do we have in the tank?

[payitforward]

I'm not sure we are likely to gain much via a tank... am I wrong? Do you think differently? Is there usually a much better player available at, say, the 9th spot than at the 12th? What do you think?

If not... why tank?

[payitforward]

Btw, I think the ping pong balls will give the #1 pick to the Lakers somehow (i.e. that the league will).

Do you think so too?

[payitforward]

You knew this was coming...

Spoiler:

In 2009, #8 was Jordan Hill. At least 8 guys taken in R1 that year were better than he was. At least 3 guys taken in R2 were as well.

In 2010, the guys taken #9 & #10 were much better the guy who went #8 (also better than the guys who went #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & 7). So was at least 1 guy taken in R2. Still, that's pretty good.

2011 -- xx of the 23 guys taken in order after #8, 14 of them were better than the guy taken #8. Most of them were way way better. So were a few guys taken way far down in R2.

The following year, 2012, only a very few guys taken after #8 in R1 were better than him. Then again, 6 of the first 10 guys who went in R2 definitely were.

In 2013, our own KCP went #8. Only 3 of the next 7 guys picked have been better -- a lot better -- than KCP. Plus a couple of late R1 picks. Might seem a pretty accurate draft except for the fact that 2 picks much later than #8 (a combined 26 picks later) are among the best players in the league.

2014 was next. The guy who went #8 was awful. A bunch of really good players -- including an MVP -- went towards the end of R1 & way into R2.

In 2015 the #8 pick was a bust, while 6 of the final 11 in R1 have had terrific careers, & so have 7 of the first 16 players picked in R2.

Then came 2016 -- #8 pick M. Chriss has been a failure, alas. Caris Lavert went #20, Pascal Siakam #27, Dejounte Murray #29, Zubac #32, Malcolm Brogdon #36... you get the idea, right?

2017 -- a great draft, everyone agrees! Frank Ntilikina went #8. Not so good... Later on there came Bam (15), John Collins (19), Donovan Mitchell (13), Anunoby (23), Derrick White (29), Josh Hart (30)... I've missed a few. Oh yeah, Jarrett Allen (22). Oh, & the guy taken at #51...? He's the starting PG for the Denver Nuggets.

2018- Sexton went #8. Now let’s go look at that year’s second round: Jalen Brunson, Devonte Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt, Bruce Brown, Hamidou Diallo, De’Anthony Melton, Svi Mykhailiuk, Kevin Hervey, Shake Milton. Collin Sexton is in his 4th year & injured. He wasn’t anything remotely approaching good in any of his first 3 years. He hasn’t been any better than Shake Milton to tell the truth – Milton was taken #54 – 46 picks after Collin Sexton.

We’ve belabored the ‘19, ‘20 & ‘21 drafts often enough that it’s not worth revisiting them yet again – to prove the same old point: generally you’re not getting a better player at #8 (Jaxson Hayes in ‘19) than is available to you at #18 (your choice of Matisse Thybulle or Brandon Clarke), or #28 (Keldon Johnson), or #38 (Daniel Gafford). Or, what the hell, 48 (Terance Mann).

In fact… why stop there? At #58, a guy named Garrison Mathews was on the board. You think Jaxson Hayes is a more valuable player than Mathews? Could be I guess. Ought to be, since he was picked #8 in the draft: 52 picks before Mathews learned that he was undrafted. Yet, Mathews played a whole lot more minutes.

...so don't bother.

[payitforward]

double...

[AFM]

PIF containment thread. Nate please rename.

[payitforward]

I'll fix it -- no worries.

[doclinkin]

The tank is never about improving the position at the back end of the lottery. The tank is about shaving %'s in your favor for the top end. Yes the odds have flattened out, but the difference between the 9th pick and the 12th pick is: 17% chance of a top 4 pick, vs 9% chance of a top 4 pick.

If you had an 8% greater chance at the next LeBron, would it be worth a few more losses in a forgettable year? Is the distance between say Chet Holmgren and Tari Eason significant enough to waste a few games?

We are 3 games in the loss column behind the 7th worst record and our current 11th worst record. That is a cluster of 4 teams all neck and neck in the tankstakes. (San Antonio, New Orleans, New York, Portland). We probably won't leap them, but that is the difference between a 9% chance and a 32% chance at a top 4 pick if we could. If that cluster of teams had a cupcake schedule to finish the year, and we didn't catch hot late as we commonly do.

With few notable exceptions (selections of Giannis, Kawhi) true championship contending teams are built with top end talent. Yes you can make the argument for building a better team with more picks lower down. Trading smart, etc. But those top picks even recruit better offers from teams looking to trade up. If you want to make your stat discussion again, pull out your Pelton chart and discuss the difference between the top 4 and the 12th pick, not the 9th and 12th.

[9 and 20]

Lots of articles on this but here is a recent one from the Ringer on expected value at each pick -

https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectations

Yes, on average, better players are picked higher in the draft, even when considering 9 vs 12.

[FAH1223]

We just gotta catch San Antonio, Portland, NOLA and New York. I think we can do it!!!

[nate33]

Lots of articles on this but here is a recent one from the Ringer on expected value at each pick -

https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectations

Yes, on average, better players are picked higher in the draft, even when considering 9 vs 12.

LOL

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you, the brilliant drafting skills of the Washington Wizards:



So the Wizards were the 26th best team in drafting over the past two decades. And they only fared that well because their most successful pick was a no-brainer #1 overall selection. Also, Cleveland is bound to leapfrog us if you update that chart to include the 2021 draft and Evan Mobley. The Kings will probably leapfrog us too with Haliburton. So we are the 3rd worst drafting team of the last two decades.

It's a good thing Ted kept Ernie around so long for "continuity".

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Lots of articles on this but here is a recent one from the Ringer on expected value at each pick -

https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectations

Yes, on average, better players are picked higher in the draft, even when considering 9 vs 12.

LOL

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you, the brilliant drafting skills of the Washington Wizards:



So the Wizards were the 26th best team in drafting over the past two decades. And they only fared that well because their most successful pick was a no-brainer #1 overall selection. Also, Cleveland is bound to leapfrog us if you update that chart to include the 2021 draft and Evan Mobley. The Kings will probably leapfrog us too with Haliburton. So we are the 3rd worst drafting team of the last two decades.

It's a good thing Ted kept Ernie around so long for "continuity".

Then replaced him with his protege.

[NatP4]

Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

[Ruzious]

Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

He certainly has skills that nobody his height has ever had. But even if we just move up 3 or 4 in the tank, it could be the difference between getting Keegan Murray or getting someone like Patrick Baldwin Jr. - with the Wiz braintrust picking.

[pcbothwel]

Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

He certainly has skills that nobody his height has ever had. But even if we just move up 3 or 4 in the tank, it could be the difference between getting Keegan Murray or getting someone like Patrick Baldwin Jr. - with the Wiz braintrust picking.

Cant state this enough. Its top 8 for me. Look at last year 3-8: Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, and Wagner..... then look at the rest of the 1st round. Sorry, its not close.

Duarte, Sengun, Kispert... Im sure all will be really good players for a long time, but there is a clear drop off.

Kings and NYK are cooked, but I see SAS, NOP, and LAL as having legit shots on winning some games down the stretch and getting us to ~9 where we at least have a 15-20% shot at the top 4... or at the very least a hope that someone around 6-8 grabs, Davis, TyTy, or Duren.

[NatP4]

Yep, and last year, Wagner and Giddey were still sitting in the 12-15 range in most mocks right up until draft night. Most of the year, Giddey was in the 20s actually. I highly doubt a guy like Keegan Murray or even Kendall Brown is going to drop down to 12-15. We need to get into that 7-10 range.

[FAH1223]

2019

The Grizzlies won one more game than the Wizards.

Grizz moved up 6 spots.

Wiz moved down 3 spots.

Smh

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yep, and last year, Wagner and Giddey were still sitting in the 12-15 range in most mocks right up until draft night. Most of the year, Giddey was in the 20s actually. I highly doubt a guy like Keegan Murray or even Kendall Brown is going to drop down to 12-15. We need to get into that 7-10 range.

How do you rate Kessler?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

He certainly has skills that nobody his height has ever had. But even if we just move up 3 or 4 in the tank, it could be the difference between getting Keegan Murray or getting someone like Patrick Baldwin Jr. - with the Wiz braintrust picking.

Cant state this enough. Its top 8 for me. Look at last year 3-8: Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, and Wagner..... then look at the rest of the 1st round. Sorry, its not close.

Duarte, Sengun, Kispert... Im sure all will be really good players for a long time, but there is a clear drop off.

Kings and NYK are cooked, but I see SAS, NOP, and LAL as having legit shots on winning some games down the stretch and getting us to ~9 where we at least have a 15-20% shot at the top 4... or at the very least a hope that someone around 6-8 grabs, Davis, TyTy, or Duren.

I kinda disagree on the top 8.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2021.html

Isaiah Jackson is an absolute stud. I wanted the Wizards to draft him, but others on this board thought he'd be another Gafford.

Tre Mann might have a decent career.

Like Mann, Cam Thomas can definitely score (but sucks on defense as well).

Day'Ron Sharpe, Herb Jones, and Ayo Dosunmu are STUDS drafted way low.

Aaron Wiggins is not much worse if at all than Kispert.