RealGM

9 and 20 wrote:Lots of articles on this but here is a recent one from the Ringer on expected value at each pick -

https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectations

Yes, on average, better players are picked higher in the draft, even when considering 9 vs 12.

nate33 wrote:

9 and 20 wrote:Lots of articles on this but here is a recent one from the Ringer on expected value at each pick -

https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectations

Yes, on average, better players are picked higher in the draft, even when considering 9 vs 12.

LOL

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you, the brilliant drafting skills of the Washington Wizards:



So the Wizards were the 26th best team in drafting over the past two decades. And they only fared that well because their most successful pick was a no-brainer #1 overall selection. Also, Cleveland is bound to leapfrog us if you update that chart to include the 2021 draft and Evan Mobley. The Kings will probably leapfrog us too with Haliburton. So we are the 3rd worst drafting team of the last two decades.

It's a good thing Ted kept Ernie around so long for "continuity".

NatP4 wrote:Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

Ruzious wrote:

NatP4 wrote:Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

He certainly has skills that nobody his height has ever had. But even if we just move up 3 or 4 in the tank, it could be the difference between getting Keegan Murray or getting someone like Patrick Baldwin Jr. - with the Wiz braintrust picking.

NatP4 wrote:Yep, and last year, Wagner and Giddey were still sitting in the 12-15 range in most mocks right up until draft night. Most of the year, Giddey was in the 20s actually. I highly doubt a guy like Keegan Murray or even Kendall Brown is going to drop down to 12-15. We need to get into that 7-10 range.

pcbothwel wrote:

Ruzious wrote:

NatP4 wrote:Yeah pretty much what Doc said. I’d like to tank even if it just slightly bumps our % chance of landing someone like Holmgren, who is one of the greatest prospects in the history of basketball.

He certainly has skills that nobody his height has ever had. But even if we just move up 3 or 4 in the tank, it could be the difference between getting Keegan Murray or getting someone like Patrick Baldwin Jr. - with the Wiz braintrust picking.

Cant state this enough. Its top 8 for me. Look at last year 3-8: Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, and Wagner..... then look at the rest of the 1st round. Sorry, its not close.

Duarte, Sengun, Kispert... Im sure all will be really good players for a long time, but there is a clear drop off.

Kings and NYK are cooked, but I see SAS, NOP, and LAL as having legit shots on winning some games down the stretch and getting us to ~9 where we at least have a 15-20% shot at the top 4... or at the very least a hope that someone around 6-8 grabs, Davis, TyTy, or Duren.