RealGM

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:54 pm**

Continued from here

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:39 pm**

nate -- thanks for the clarifying answer about Ivey. It'll be interesting to look back at how he has developed in a few years.

To me the biggest/best thing to note about Ivey is how very much he improved from his first year to his second. That's a solid positive predictor I'd say....

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:39 pm**

Rafael122 wrote:Give me a guy who can finish at the rim, shoot the 3 (doesn't have to be Curry) and play some defense. Whoever that is, pick him at 10 even if its a reach. Do I really like Mathurin? Yes, but it sounds like he struggles defensively. Why draft a guy that can get you 20 but gives up 25 on the other end? What are we doing?

Honestly this guy has re-occurred to me in the Jaden Ivey hype and the walk through of championship rosters vs. draft position. It had me looking for steals at the top end of the draft that might be currently overlooked and undervalued. Which had me circle back to:

AJ Griffin.

Griffin's stock is low since he has suffered from lower leg injuries already as a young player. Nobody wants a Greg Oden. That said, it occurred to me that if he heals 100% and gets in the training room with specialists it is possible his athleticism and upside recover and along with it his aggression and willingness to attack.

He already shoots a pretty NBA 3pt shot. Works well in catch and shoot situations. Defends with activity, positioning, anticipation, strength. Has a mature game, solid body.

Watch on YouTube

Defense starts at 5:34 or thereabouts.

Then I saw that he is one of the youngest players in the draft. THAT ^^ ^ does not look like a guy who was 17 years old when checking into dorms last summer. Of the first round picks only Jalen Duren is younger.

If we are looking at Jaden Ivey as a standout phenom after 2 years development, is it possible that Griffin has similar upside as he grows and recovers from injury? HIs stats and Ivey's stats as freshman are comparable, except that Griffin has a much sweeter smoother shot from outside. Yes he doesn't have the handle to attack the interior with blow-by speed and confidence, but scanning back to his highschool footage you see a player who is above the rim dunking on the Bigs with confidence and ease.

The age thing stood out to me. The studies show the players who develop into all stars commonly show their ability at an early age. The younger they are while producing, often the higher the upside they show down the line. So. I'm all over the place on this draft, but, a young young cat who defends like a grown veteran, and has a beautiful shot from outside, that seems like exactly the player you describe, with hidden upside if his injury issues are acute and not chronic.

This is him as a highschool Junior

Watch on YouTube

Now:

Watch on YouTube

Smooth, veteran with ball fakes. Love his ability to find his balance mid-air to square up for a shot.

Edit: lol. Honestly he's now my favorite prospect in the draft. Every time his shot goes up it looks like it is going in. Shoots an effortlessly pretty ball. And his game, while recovering from an ACL injury, looks like a 10 year veteran. A step slow and careful, but apparently he came back from the injury way ahead of schedule. Hm. The consensus mock has him falling to 9, with Sochan on the board. If the Spurs like the Polish kid for his defense and all around game, I would not be sad to take this one as the BPA.

But nah, I could see him taken by the Pistons, Portland, New Orleans or the Spurs. So, oh well.

Posted: **Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:49 pm**

Remind me - how many days until #sowizards?

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:22 am**

dckingsfan wrote:Remind me - how many days until #sowizards?

isn't every day #sowizards?

9 days - June 23

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:33 am**

doclinkin wrote: [content cut .. nice post about AJ Griffin]

The age thing stood out to me. The studies show the players who develop into all stars commonly show their ability at an early age. The younger they are while producing, often the higher the upside they show down the line.

I posted this, which may be relevant, a year and a half ago on the Knicks board (but the numbers haven't really altered in the interim).

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=2011935&p=86968827&hilit=graph#p86968827

The "Asset of Age" blog posts that triggered the discussion start with https://towardsdatascience.com/the-asset-of-age-e4b45599ea94 iirc there was one follow up on "predicting the 2023 MVP" using similar methods.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:47 am**

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=TFqwvreGF4quDZqtbabc5g

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:27 am**

doclinkin wrote:Griffin's stock is low since he has suffered from lower leg injuries already as a young player. ...if he heals 100% and gets in the training room with specialists it is possible his athleticism and upside recover and along with it his aggression and willingness to attack.

...Then I saw that he is one of the youngest players in the draft. ...If we are looking at Jaden Ivey as a standout phenom after 2 years development, is it possible that Griffin has similar upside as he grows and recovers from injury? HIs stats and Ivey's stats as freshman are comparable, except that Griffin has a much sweeter smoother shot from outside. ...

Earlier today I wrote that one of the positive about Ivey is the substantial improvement from his Freshman to his Sophomore year. But, even with that improvement, his overall numbers as a Sophomore were no better than Griffin's as a Freshman -- & Ivey's Freshman numbers don't approach Griffin's.

Obviously, it's virtually impossible to compare these two kids, because their concrete circumstances are so very different -- the biggest single difference being Griffin's injury -- but, that said I've wondered all along why there was so little excitement surrounding Griffin, & I've basically put it down to that injury.

If his recovery from that injury can be projected to be 100%, then AJ Griffin is one of the 3-4 top prospects in this draft class. With that proviso, I'd be comfortable ranking him comfortably above Ivey. But... it's an unknown.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:32 am**

I just don’t agree, Dat. I don’t see how anyone can compare Ivey to Morant. They aren’t even close.

Why would you give up on Avdija in a heartbeat? Genuine question. He’s only 21, plays really good defense, shows secondary playmaking skills, great basketball IQ. He’s just a consistent jumper away from being an impact player....at just 21 years old.

Rui? I totally get it, but I don’t get why you are so low on Avdija.

If the trade is something like 10+Kuzma+Rui, of course you do it. Who cares? But even still, I’m taking Murray/Sharpe/Daniels over Ivey, and it’s not even close.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:01 am**

Numbers are not everything when you compare college basketball players playing against other college basketball players where zone is allowed and teams slow it down to get it into their methodical big men. Ivey's NBA upside is ridiculous due to his speed and quickness. The difference between him and Morant is that Ja is more of a point guard who is still developing as a shooter. But he's so freakin' explosive that he's putting up 27 ppg (6.7apg) and is nearly unstoppable in the open floor. Teams can't even foul him to slow down breaks because he's so far. Speed kills at that position and Ivey has many of those traits. He only played two seasons in college basketball and there's room to grow. Why is he a finished product? You mean he can't get better as a shooter, a point guard (if they play him there) or as a defender?

There are few players coming out of college who are so athletic that teams will have to gameplan for them. A lot of guys need screens to score. Few don't.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:05 am**

Read on Twitter

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:45 am**

Aj griff

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:06 am**

Jay81 wrote:Aj griff

Talk me through the chart then. He struggles from straight on and hardly ever ends up in the right hand side (from off pov) corner. And basically never takes 2pt shots unless they are within 6'? So for his in college stats what you essentially want him to do is either shoot 3pt-ers from the elbow or drive or dive to the basket for layups/dunks?

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:17 am**

80sballboy wrote:Numbers are not everything when you compare college basketball players playing against other college basketball players where zone is allowed and teams slow it down to get it into their methodical big men. Ivey's NBA upside is ridiculous due to his speed and quickness. The difference between him and Morant is that Ja is more of a point guard who is still developing as a shooter. But he's so freakin' explosive that he's putting up 27 ppg (6.7apg) and is nearly unstoppable in the open floor. Teams can't even foul him to slow down breaks because he's so far. Speed kills at that position and Ivey has many of those traits. He only played two seasons in college basketball and there's room to grow. Why is he a finished product? You mean he can't get better as a shooter, a point guard (if they play him there) or as a defender?

There are few players coming out of college who are so athletic that teams will have to gameplan for them. A lot of guys need screens to score. Few don't.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jaden-ivey--ja-morant

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:38 pm**

New mock from Givony this morning. For the Wizards, he has them taking Johnny Davis.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/34089687/2022-nba-mock-draft-first-round-changes-include-lottery-movement

The Wizards need to improve their backcourt after cycling through a cascade of guards this past season. An All-American last season, Davis should be able to play an immediate role with his defensive versatility, unselfishness and scoring ability, while also bringing many winning intangibles to which the Wizards will be attracted. He would fit well alongside the ball-dominant Bradley Beal and has plenty of upside to tap into as well at just 20 years old. This pick is widely assumed to be available in trade talks, in exchange for a proven backcourt player.

Overall draft order:
1. Jabari
2. Chet
3. Paolo
4. Ivey
5. Murray
6. Mathurin
7. Daniels
8. Sharpe
9. Duren
10. Davis
11. Griffin
12. Dieng
13. Sochan
14. Agbaji
15. Mark Williams
16. Branham
17. Eason
18. Jalen Williams
19. Kessler
20. Wesley
21. TyTy
22. Chandler
23. Hardy
24. Jovic
25. Liddell
26. Beauchamp
27. Terry
28. LaRavia
29. Houstan
30. Roddy

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:44 pm**

payitforward wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Griffin's stock is low since he has suffered from lower leg injuries already as a young player. ...if he heals 100% and gets in the training room with specialists it is possible his athleticism and upside recover and along with it his aggression and willingness to attack.

...Then I saw that he is one of the youngest players in the draft. ...If we are looking at Jaden Ivey as a standout phenom after 2 years development, is it possible that Griffin has similar upside as he grows and recovers from injury? HIs stats and Ivey's stats as freshman are comparable, except that Griffin has a much sweeter smoother shot from outside. ...

Earlier today I wrote that one of the positive about Ivey is the substantial improvement from his Freshman to his Sophomore year. But, even with that improvement, his overall numbers as a Sophomore were no better than Griffin's as a Freshman -- & Ivey's Freshman numbers don't approach Griffin's.

Obviously, it's virtually impossible to compare these two kids, because their concrete circumstances are so very different -- the biggest single difference being Griffin's injury -- but, that said I've wondered all along why there was so little excitement surrounding Griffin, & I've basically put it down to that injury.

If his recovery from that injury can be projected to be 100%, then AJ Griffin is one of the 3-4 top prospects in this draft class. With that proviso, I'd be comfortable ranking him comfortably above Ivey. But... it's an unknown.

Agree with you both.
If AJ gets that pop back, then he is a no brainer pick at 10.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:53 pm**

My first choice would be Ivey (in a trade up) or Mathurin but I'd be fine with Davis. He's got good size and is an above average and instinctive defender. Davis also has a solid midrange game...and I'd expect him to improve his long-range shooting over time.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:07 pm**

Griffin does seem like a Tommy Sheppard type of pick. He reminds me of the Hachimura pick: elite physical tools plus sound fundamentals and mechanics, even if he hasn't demonstrated much feel for the game.

If we end up choosing between Davis and Griffin, I think I'd prefer Griffin, assuming the medical checks out. Both guys have an interesting upside if things break right, but I figure Griffin has a higher floor.

Griffin is almost a guarantee of being a serviceable starting 3&D wing similar to Reggie Bullock or a Dorian Finney-Smith. Davis might just be too small to be a low usage 3&D SF, and insufficiently efficient to be a high usage offensive threat at SG - a Troy Brown Jr.

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:16 pm**

I've had my eye on Griffin, he would actually be my preferred pick but the injury stuff is worrisome. Do we actually know what his injuries were? All I've read were knee injuries, but was it a torn ACL, meniscus, etc?

Posted: **Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:48 pm**

Rafael122 wrote:I've had my eye on Griffin, he would actually be my preferred pick but the injury stuff is worrisome. Do we actually know what his injuries were? All I've read were knee injuries, but was it a torn ACL, meniscus, etc?

I would pass at 10. Consider him later. Preseason knee injury (sprain) and sat out 2020-21 with an ankle injury.

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