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I posted this in the Tommy thread, but figured it warrants its own post. Even though we are idiotically trying to win, we are in the worst position in the NBA:

EAST:
The contenders:
1). Bucks
2). Celtics
3). Heat
4). 76ers
5). Nets (as long as they have KD, insane Kyrie, and Simmons)

The good teams with young stars:
6). Hawks
7). Raptors
8). Cleveland (smart FO that knew when to tank. Mobely is a STUD)

The teams with better rosters and will win more than the Wiz:
9). Bulls (Last year may have been the peak, but they will win more)

The rebuilders:
10). Detroit (Ivey & Cade is a great start)
11). Orlando (Wagner was a home run pick. Suggs looked bad last year, but he'll get time. They are on their way)
12). Indiana (great young start to their rebuild (something their owner never permitted before. Tyrese, Duarte, and their #5 pick from Zona is a great foundation. They also have no bad longterm contracts)

The we have 1 young star:
13). Hornets (Bridges being a scumbag killed them. They still have LaMelo).
14). Knicks (They want to win now. Assuming they get Mitchell, they will vault over the Wizards).

The stupid-idiotic strategy of going for the play-in:
15). Wizards (Dumbest team in the NBA. Has no strategy nor desire to ever try and win a title. Leonsis is the worst).


WEST:
The contenders:
1). GSW
2). Phoenix (assuming they retain Ayton/get something in return for him)
3). Clippers (LOADED roster. Best team in the NBA IMO)
4). Denver (Elite starting 5)
5). Dallas
6). Memphis

The good teams with young stars:
7). Minnesota
8). Pelicans

The we have to win now teams:
9). LAL (Davis has to be peak for them to have a chance)
10). Portland (They are trying to be rebuild and win now)
11). Sac (I'm rooting for them to make the play-in. Their fans deserve it).

The rebuilders:
12). OKC (LOVE their core)
13). Houston (Still a ways away)
14). Spurs (Great trade to get those future picks. Keldon Johnson & Vassel are really good young players)
15). Utah (will have the worst roster in the NBA).

The teams that will finish with worse records than us next year will be:
1). Utah
2). Houston
3). Spurs
4). Orlando
5). Pacers
6). Pistons


We will be competing with OKC, Hornets, and Knicks and will get our destined late lotto pick. This team is HOPELESS.

I think the Wizards have the worst outlook.

We have a GM who can’t draft worth a damn.

An owner who’s delusional.

A star player on a huge deal which will coincide with his decline.

A second star player who might be our best player but he’s never healthy.

And a roster full of high character middling talent level guys.

We are doomed to watch Tommy patch-together teams from the leftovers of FA's just like Ernie did. The play-in tournament is the final nail in the coffin because making that will be good enough for Ted.

I don't really think Charlotte or New York are in any better position than us. Neither has more talent and they both have terrible management as well.

But being in a 3-way tie for Worst Team in the East isn't much better than being the sole contender for Worst Team in the East.

nate33 wrote:I don't really think Charlotte or New York are in any better position than us. Neither has more talent and they both have terrible management as well.

But being in a 3-way tie for Worst Team in the East isn't much better than being the sole contender for Worst Team in the East.

Charlotte at least has LaMelo. Bridges being a total scumbag destroyed them. I think Kupchek is a good GM. He's got a good eye for talent.

I figure the Knicks are going to trade for Mitchell. They need to have Barrett go up another level. They want to compete and make the playoffs (exact same goal as us). Well, Mitchell is signed longterm and younger than Beal. Brunson is there. If Barrett improves and Randle goes back to his play 2 years ago, then that is a solid team.

It is semantics, but we are clearly bottom 3 in the EAST for the future. Our entire success this season depends on KP. I don't see it (despite KP being a revelation last year)>. We need KP to stay healthy and play like Jokic to have a chance.

mhd wrote:

nate33 wrote:I don't really think Charlotte or New York are in any better position than us. Neither has more talent and they both have terrible management as well.

But being in a 3-way tie for Worst Team in the East isn't much better than being the sole contender for Worst Team in the East.

Charlotte at least has LaMelo. Bridges being a total scumbag destroyed them. I think Kupchek is a good GM. He's got a good eye for talent.

I figure the Knicks are going to trade for Mitchell. They need to have Barrett go up another level. They want to compete and make the playoffs (exact same goal as us). Well, Mitchell is signed longterm and younger than Beal. Brunson is there. If Barrett improves and Randle goes back to his play 2 years ago, then that is a solid team.

It is semantics, but we are clearly bottom 3 in the EAST for the future. Our entire success this season depends on KP. I don't see it (despite KP being a revelation last year)>. We need KP to stay healthy and play like Jokic to have a chance.

If the Knicks trade for Mitchell, Ainge will make them overpay (just as they overpaid for Brunson).

I suspect the Knicks will be worse off after the trade for Mitchell than they are right now.

I take issues with some of this negativity.
I'm not gonna suck Ted dick here but he isn't a terrible owner like the Dolans, Jordans and viviaks of the world. Tommy is not a dog **** GM either. He was left with nothing and put something together. He hasn't had a top 5 pick. So you're beating him up for not getting super star caliber players in the 6 - 15 range? You can argue weather he should have moved back or what ever ok that's fair but his pick we're almost never stretches. And no one's really busted out either yet. Browns on the Lakers so that's meh, Rui looks good and is growing, you have to navigate his next deal. kispert and Deni have a ton of up side and play well. Davis is TBD. Todd looks terrible and Winston washed out but other than that I can be mad he's a middle of the road draft guy. It honestly most GMs are expect the 4-6 really elite draft FO in the league.

So the out look for the team

Beal still has peak years left. I hope he pulls back from injury and plays like the old Beal this year. Morris is a flat out upgrade at PG. I hope he steps up and really shows he's a true starter. I hope we don't keep Barton around but he's a decent bench player. We upgraded the front court for sure. This team is gonna be good on defence. Really good. Can we figure out this forward log jam/ will Beal play team ball and work on defence/ can KP stay healthy of things go right we can be a decent ball club. Of course if things don't we won't but that's everyteam. Let's not be so negative all the time.

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Knicks are definitely in a better spot than we are. Their roster is more or less the same as ours but they have several first round picks in-hand. If they trade a bunch of stuff for Mitchell, they'll be pretty good for a few years, at least. That's better than our upside which is probably #7/8 seed if almost everything goes right.

On Charlotte, I'd rather have Ball than any player on our roster and he's on a rookie deal for the next couple of years. That alone might put them in a better spot. Whether or not they can take advantage of that, who knows.

I think MJ and the Knicks at least want a winning product though. Our ownership just wants a profitable product.

gambitx777 wrote:I take issues with some of this negativity.
I'm not gonna suck Ted dick here but he isn't a terrible owner like the Dolans, Jordans and viviaks of the world. Tommy is not a dog **** GM either. He was left with nothing and put something together. He hasn't had a top 5 pick. So you're beating him up for not getting super star caliber players in the 6 - 15 range? You can argue weather he should have moved back or what ever ok that's fair but his pick we're almost never stretches. And no one's really busted out either yet. Browns on the Lakers so that's meh, Rui looks good and is growing, you have to navigate his next deal. kispert and Deni have a ton of up side and play well. Davis is TBD. Todd looks terrible and Winston washed out but other than that I can be mad he's a middle of the road draft guy. It honestly most GMs are expect the 4-6 really elite draft FO in the league.

So the out look for the team

Beal still has peak years left. I hope he pulls back from injury and plays like the old Beal this year. Morris is a flat out upgrade at PG. I hope he steps up and really shows he's a true starter. I hope we don't keep Barton around but he's a decent bench player. We upgraded the front court for sure. This team is gonna be good on defence. Really good. Can we figure out this forward log jam/ will Beal play team ball and work on defence/ can KP stay healthy of things go right we can be a decent ball club. Of course if things don't we won't but that's everyteam. Let's not be so negative all the time.

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Yes, Tommy isn't a dog. It's hard to land stars in the draft when you are picking 9th, 10th and 15th. But the problem is that we keep picking 9th and 10th because Ted refuses to tank and insists on keeping Beal and paying him more than anyone else in the league. It's complete insanity.

There is virtually no reason at all to be optimistic. This team is not better than Milwaukee, Boston, Philly, Miami, Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland, and has no pathway to get better than them in the foreseeable future (except perhaps for Miami who will fade as Butler and Lowry age). Meanwhile other young teams like Detroit and Orlando already have better foundations than us. Our young players all project to be mere role players, with the possible exception of Avdija. Beal will never regain his peak form and there's no guarantee that he will even be better than last season - and he was really bad last season. We are paying him too much to ever add any free agent talent alongside him, and we will probably be forced to let several of our rookie contract guys go when their contracts are up.

Our only, desperate hope is that Porzingis plays like he did for 19 games with us last season, only even better, and without any injuries. If he plays at his highest conceivable level, he'll be an All Star and maybe we can be roughly as good as Cleveland or Atlanta and sneak into a 7th/8th seed. But that's our absolute ceiling. And if he plays that well, we wouldn't be able to afford to retain him when his contract is up in 2024.

mhd wrote:...The teams that will finish with worse records than us next year will be:
1). Utah
2). Houston
3). Spurs
4). Orlando
5). Pacers
6). Pistons...

I don't see why the Spurs would finish with a worse record than ours. & I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Pacers or Pistons finishes above us. It won't be a total shock if both of them do.

gambitx777 wrote:...Tommy is not a dog **** GM either. He was left with nothing and put something together. He hasn't had a top 5 pick. So you're beating him up for not getting super star caliber players in the 6 - 15 range? You can argue weather he should have moved back or what ever ok that's fair but his pick we're almost never stretches.... he's a middle of the road draft guy....

Rui was a stretch. But that's a minor point. You have to do better than take someone who "isn't a stretch."

&, above all, managing the draft doesn't reduce to "let's not take a guy who's a stretch." It's about maximizing what you get by using what you've got. Once again, it's not like we lack a clear example to point to. There are teams that manage the draft extremely well. The Grizzlies are the most obvious example, but SA is another. & Minny's new FO is looking good as well.

That said, you are right that Tommy is not a dog**** GM.

He wasn't "left with nothing," he was left with a whole lot less than nothing! The fact that he got us out of the worst contract in the league -- & got some actual player-value in the process -- is nothing short of a miracle.

nate33 wrote:

gambitx777 wrote:.... Tommy is ...a middle of the road draft guy. ...

Yes, ... It's hard to land stars in the draft when you are picking 9th, 10th and 15th. ...

Just on this detail: if you go into the draft with the goal of landing "a star," you will fail in the draft repeatedly. About 1/2 of all players taken #1, #2 or #3 are failures in the league. Either they bust more or less completely or they do not reach anything like actual "star" potential.

If that's the rate for the top 3 picks, how can you make it a goal to come away with a star? Your goal is to come away with the most benefit for your team possible given the resources you have: your picks & anything else you might want to throw into a deal.

If you do that, you'll become a good team (assuming you aren't inept at everything else a GM does!). If you don't do that, you will get worse & worse.

payitforward wrote:

mhd wrote:...The teams that will finish with worse records than us next year will be:
1). Utah
2). Houston
3). Spurs
4). Orlando
5). Pacers
6). Pistons...

I don't see why the Spurs would finish with a worse record than ours. & I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Pacers or Pistons finishes above us. It won't be a total shock if both of them do.

The Spurs will deliberately lose games. Pop will play bad defensive lineups in 4th quarters or something.

They want Victor Wembanyama!

Rockets and Spurs are better than us. I would not be surprised if they actually perform better than us. However, given the lotto sweepstakes this next draft, they may do the smart thing and tank.

The team we need to be comparing to is the TWolves.
KAT = KP - High usage playmaking stretch 5
Ant < Beal - SG that can get a bucket in many ways and be lead guard at times
Dlo > Morris - Lead PG that isnt a shooter, but can get others invovled
Beasley = Barton - Vet wing that can score, but doesnt do much else
Vanderbilt = Deni - Versatile defender that rebounds, defends and provides energy
McDaniels = Rui - Tantalizing talent that can score and be solid man defender, but doesnt show the IQ to contribute as much elsewhere
Pat Bev = Wright - Backup guard that defends, shoots 3's, and doesnt turn it over. Low usage and not traditional PG
Nowell = Kispert - High level shooter with sneaky playmaking and defense.

A number of things could go wrong during the season, but if that team can win 46 games then I dont see why we cant easily do that.
Our upside is higher due to 2017-21 Beal being far better than Edwards last year, and Deni having potential offensively that Vanderbilt would only dream of.

I see low end of a .500 team if KP & Beal dont click and/or injuries, ~46 wins if they do well together, and 50 wins if Beal returns to form AND Deni breaks out and gives us Kyle Anderson/Batum/Barnes type wing play.

Not sure if that leads to anything more than a 1st round exit, but it is what it is.

Maybe I'm just a homer, but I would put the Wizards where the Cavs and Bulls are. The Bulls are a mess, they signed Lonzo Ball which was a great signing but it sounds like his knees are failing him. They traded 2 first round picks for Vuc which is getting panned more and more and they just locked up Lavine to a huge extension and he's a player who's had his own shares of knee issues.

Cleveland? I don't buy them as a serious team, sorry. I think there's some revisionist history going on there, yes they had some bad injuries but they were playing .500 ball for the most part early on, got hot, and then trailed off towards the end of the year. I think the 40-44 wins is probably where they're at.

I don't buy the Knicks vaulting over the Wizards either. Just to match salaries they will have to trade like 4-5 guys, so you're killing the depth of your team, trading picks for a guy who plays no defense.

Don't get me wrong, the Wiz are firmly in that play in territory but if we get...70 games from KP, a healthy Beal I could see us being in that 5th-6th seed. We're what...8-9 deep?

Rafael122 wrote:Maybe I'm just a homer, but I would put the Wizards where the Cavs and Bulls are. The Bulls are a mess, they signed Lonzo Ball which was a great signing but it sounds like his knees are failing him. They traded 2 first round picks for Vuc which is getting panned more and more and they just locked up Lavine to a huge extension and he's a player who's had his own shares of knee issues.

Cleveland? I don't buy them as a serious team, sorry. I think there's some revisionist history going on there, yes they had some bad injuries but they were playing .500 ball for the most part early on, got hot, and then trailed off towards the end of the year. I think the 40-44 wins is probably where they're at.

I don't buy the Knicks vaulting over the Wizards either. Just to match salaries they will have to trade like 4-5 guys, so you're killing the depth of your team, trading picks for a guy who plays no defense.

Don't get me wrong, the Wiz are firmly in that play in territory but if we get...70 games from KP, a healthy Beal I could see us being in that 5th-6th seed. We're what...8-9 deep?

The Bulls won 46 games last year with Lonzo missing 47 games, Caruso missing 41, and Pat Williams missing 65. Levine missed 15 too. Even if Ball is damaged goods, they should still be much healthier this year. And Williams in particular addresses a big need of theirs - a forward who can defend. I agree that the ceiling of that team is limited because Vucevic can't defend, but they're still much better than us. They've got two guys perimeter stars better than Beal, plus Vucevic who is maybe 85% of what Porzingis is.

Cleveland won 44 games last year with Allen missing 25 games, Levert missing 60, and Mobley a rookie. This year, Mobley, Garland and Okoro should be significantly better, and maybe they'll actually get something out of Caris Levert. They could also retain Sexton for more scoring punch.

I agree that the Knicks aren't impressive. My guess is they disappoint as Thibdeau teams always do after the first season of success.

I keep going back to Beal. Are we really even sure he is a good player any longer? I'm not talking about whether or not he is a superstar. I'm wondering if he is even an above-average starter. The guy shot 30% from 3-point range last year, and posted a TS% of .539. And he was never a plus defender. The team did just as well without him as with him.

I'm hoping for a bounce-back year from Beal where he regains his fringe All-Star level of play; but it is far from a sure thing. He might simply have forgotten how to shoot. It sometimes happens. And his defense certainly won't get any better as he ages.

nate33 wrote:

Rafael122 wrote:Maybe I'm just a homer, but I would put the Wizards where the Cavs and Bulls are. The Bulls are a mess, they signed Lonzo Ball which was a great signing but it sounds like his knees are failing him. They traded 2 first round picks for Vuc which is getting panned more and more and they just locked up Lavine to a huge extension and he's a player who's had his own shares of knee issues.

Cleveland? I don't buy them as a serious team, sorry. I think there's some revisionist history going on there, yes they had some bad injuries but they were playing .500 ball for the most part early on, got hot, and then trailed off towards the end of the year. I think the 40-44 wins is probably where they're at.

I don't buy the Knicks vaulting over the Wizards either. Just to match salaries they will have to trade like 4-5 guys, so you're killing the depth of your team, trading picks for a guy who plays no defense.

Don't get me wrong, the Wiz are firmly in that play in territory but if we get...70 games from KP, a healthy Beal I could see us being in that 5th-6th seed. We're what...8-9 deep?

The Bulls won 46 games last year with Lonzo missing 47 games, Caruso missing 41, and Pat Williams missing 65. Levine missed 15 too. Even if Ball is damaged goods, they should still be much healthier this year. And Williams in particular addresses a big need of theirs - a forward who can defend. I agree that the ceiling of that team is limited because Vucevic can't defend, but they're still much better than us. They've got two guys perimeter stars better than Beal, plus Vucevic who is maybe 85% of what Porzingis is.

Cleveland won 44 games last year with Allen missing 25 games, Levert missing 60, and Mobley a rookie. This year, Mobley, Garland and Okoro should be significantly better, and maybe they'll actually get something out of Caris Levert. They could also retain Sexton for more scoring punch.

I agree that the Knicks aren't impressive. My guess is they disappoint as Thibdeau teams always do after the first season of success.

I keep going back to Beal. Are we really even sure he is a good player any longer? I'm not talking about whether or not he is a superstar. I'm wondering if he is even an above-average starter. The guy shot 30% from 3-point range last year, and posted a TS% of .539. And he was never a plus defender. The team did just as well without him as with him.

I'm hoping for a bounce-back year from Beal where he regains his fringe All-Star level of play; but it is far from a sure thing. He might simply have forgotten how to shoot. It sometimes happens. And his defense certainly won't get any better as he ages.

I forgot which podcast I was listening to, maybe it was Lowe's but basically Beal's catch and shoot 3s were money when he had Wall on the team. Pull up 3s are abysmal but that was probably a result of him being the guy and having to do everything with bad teammates around him. He's 29, historically, the length of his contract still covers his prime years. Will be he worth $60 mil? Probably not, neither would Devin Booker or any of these guys making that kind of money. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and think with better point guard play his 3 point shooting will be better.

But back to the Cavs/Bulls, etc, at the end of the day none of them are a top 6 team in the East. We're just rearranging chairs on the titanic here, they're all in that play in conversation.

pcbothwel wrote:The team we need to be comparing to is the TWolves....

The comparison might be useful if it were anywhere close to objective! It is really mind-blowing what a homer you are! It's great for someone to be that way, but I do wonder how often the Wizards would have to prove you wrong before you began to see things differently!

For starters, I wonder... how did Minny manage to win 46 games last year in the tougher Western Conference?

pcbothwel wrote:KAT = KP - High usage playmaking stretch 5...

KAT has been a zillion times better player than KP every single year of his career. Moreover, he's averaged 2350 minutes a year!

pcbothwel wrote:Ant < Beal - SG that can get a bucket in many ways and be lead guard at times...

Anthony was far far better than Beal last year, & obviously he's only begun to develop. Can't predict the future, but he looks to have a very high ceiling. To think that Beal will be better than him next year reveals no more than the fact of what an extraordinary homer you are! Not a criticism, but the resulting comparison has zero value.

pcbothwel wrote:Dlo > Morris - Lead PG that isnt a shooter, but can get others invovled...

In this case, otoh, I don't think Russell is particularly better than Morris -- if at all!

pcbothwel wrote:Beasley = Barton - Vet wing that can score, but doesnt do much else...

In this case too... I'd rather have Barton.

pcbothwel wrote:Vanderbilt = Deni - Versatile defender that rebounds, defends and provides energy...

Oh man.... To this point, Deni is nowhere near as good a player as Vanderbilt. You are aware, aren't you, that last year Vanderbilt got twice as many rebounds as Deni per 40 minutes...? A bit over that, actually. Not to mention scoring with significantly higher efficiency.

pcbothwel wrote:McDaniels = Rui - Tantalizing talent that can score and be solid man defender, but doesnt show the IQ to contribute as much elsewhere...

Rui has a long way to go before he's any good, but he's better than McDaniels

pcbothwel wrote:Pat Bev = Wright - Backup guard that defends, shoots 3's, and doesnt turn it over. Low usage and not traditional PG...

Wright is terrific. Patrick Beverly is significantly better.

pcbothwel wrote:Nowell = Kispert - High level shooter with sneaky playmaking and defense. ...

Nowell had a terrific year last year -- after his first two being bad. I'd much rather have Kispert, but there's no predicting anything about either of these guys next year to tell the truth.

pcbothwel wrote:A number of things could go wrong during the season, but if that team can win 46 games then I dont see why we cant easily do that.

Our upside is higher due to 2017-21 Beal being far better than Edwards last year, and Deni having potential offensively that Vanderbilt would only dream of.

I see low end of a .500 team if KP & Beal dont click and/or injuries, ~46 wins if they do well together, and 50 wins if Beal returns to form AND Deni breaks out and gives us Kyle Anderson/Batum/Barnes type wing play....

Overall, no one but you would call these teams anywhere near equal. & Minny is on the way up, much younger, etc. Whereas we are on the way to nowhere. Let's see what you say when we win 35 games again!