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We're closing in on being 20% through the season. How is this year's rookie class doing? Who are the standouts? Surprises?

First some perspective: last season twenty-two rookies played over 1000 minutes. Only 18 rookies this year have played 195+ minutes (the equivalent of 1000 on a full season).

Among those 18, the 7 whose numbers look best overall are: Walker Kessler, A.J. Griffin, Tari Eason, Shaedon Sharpe, Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Williams, & Christian Braun.

Note that of those guys, only Sharpe (#7) & Williams (#12) were lottery picks. Kessler went #22, Griffin #16, Eason #17, Nembhard #31, & Braun #21.

Bennedict Mathurin (#6) has looked absolutely fantastic scoring the ball; he really looks like he'll be a stud.

Jalen Duren (#13) just turned 19 yesterday. He's already a dominant rebounder. The sky's the limit for him.

Jaden Ivey (#5) you could say the same about.

Banchero is already a volume scorer, but he isn't very efficient yet.

Murray has been unspectacular so far.

Jabari Smith, the 3d pick in the draft, has been awful.

Who am I missing? Who have you liked so far?

Are you forgetting THE Johnny Davis?

Amazingly, we are already 1/3 of the way through the 2022-23 NBA regular season. Time for another peek at the rookie class!

At this juncture, 5 rookies stand out as being a fair amount better than any of the others -- so far: Walker Kessler, Dyson Daniels, Tari Eason, Andrew Nembhard & Jalen Duren.

It's worth spending a moment considering the other-worldly performance of Walker Kessler.

For starters, this kid has a league-leading .756 FG% -- wow! He's only missed 22 shots.

Meanwhile, he's grabbed 56 offensive rebounds.
Few & far between are the players who get 2.5 offensive boards for every shot they miss. Frankly, I wonder if it's ever been done before! Kessler is also second in the league in blocked shots per 40 minutes.

Both Dyson Daniels & Tari Eason were favorites on this Board, & they have not disappointed. Andrew Nembhard has been a terrific surprise. Taken #31, he's been extremely productive.

Of course, some other rookies have disappointed. Jabari Smith -- the 3d pick in the draft! -- has been godawful. Paolo Banchero, the top pick, has started his NBA career as a consciousless chucker. Keegan Murray has done nothing to speak of. Jaden Ivey & Bennedict Mathurin, both highly touted, haven't yet performed well.

Here's something interesting: Jordan Goodwin isn't considered a rookie, because he played 3 minutes in 2021-22. Sad. Especially because, if he were considered a rookie, he'd certainly be contending for ROY! He's been the best thing about the Wizards' season so far I'd say.....

I was just wondering if any other team busted on their lottery pick, all of them are playing except Davis

payitforward wrote:Amazingly, we are already 1/3 of the way through the 2022-23 NBA regular season. Time for another peek at the rookie class!

At this juncture, 5 rookies stand out as being a fair amount better than any of the others -- so far: Walker Kessler, Dyson Daniels, Tari Eason, Andrew Nembhard & Jalen Duren.

It's worth spending a moment considering the other-worldly performance of Walker Kessler.

For starters, this kid has a league-leading .756 FG% -- wow! He's only missed 22 shots.

Meanwhile, he's grabbed 56 offensive rebounds.
Few & far between are the players who get 2.5 offensive boards for every shot they miss. Frankly, I wonder if it's ever been done before! Kessler is also second in the league in blocked shots per 40 minutes.

Both Dyson Daniels & Tari Eason were favorites on this Board, & they have not disappointed. Andrew Nembhard has been a terrific surprise. Taken #31, he's been extremely productive.

Of course, some other rookies have disappointed. Jabari Smith -- the 3d pick in the draft! -- has been godawful. Paolo Banchero, the top pick, has started his NBA career as a consciousless chucker. Keegan Murray has done nothing to speak of. Jaden Ivey & Bennedict Mathurin, both highly touted, haven't yet performed well.

Here's something interesting: Jordan Goodwin isn't considered a rookie, because he played 3 minutes in 2021-22. Sad. Especially because, if he were considered a rookie, he'd certainly be contending for ROY! He's been the best thing about the Wizards' season so far I'd say.....

Before the season started I said draft Eason. I also said Kessler was worthy of a lottery pick. Draft Kessler and trade Gafford was an idea I posted . Last season it was apparent that Wes Jr wasn’t playing Gafford enough minutes for the contract Daniel signed when he was a starter.

Let me do something else I’ve done before. I predict within three seasons Tari Eason will be an all star.

The numbers already show it possible.

I absolutely knew Kessler posted outrageous NCAA stats that would project to solid NBA production. I knew he should have been rated lottery worthy.

closg00 wrote:I was just wondering if any other team busted on their lottery pick, all of them are playing except Davis

Well, first off, "all of them" are NOT playing -- e.g. Holmgren is injured & out for the season.

Then there's the question why the fact that a guy is "playing" means he was, in any sense at all, a good pick -- where'd you get that idea?

Jabari Smith went #3 in the draft & is playing -- only he's absolutely awful so far.

Of the top 10 picks, so far only Dyson Daniels has looked good.

For that matter, as I mentioned, Jordan Goodwin isn't called a "rookie" b/c he played 3 minutes last year. If he counted, he'd be right behind Walker Kessler as a RoY candidate.

Of the 4 top rookies so far, one of them went #31, one went #17, & one went #9.
Where are #s 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 ,7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 & 15 (i.e. all the other lottery picks)?

There are good players all up and down virtually every single draft. Even weak drafts.

Take 2019, for example:
Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Grant Williams, Nassir Little, Dylan Windler, Jordan Poole & Keldon Johnson all went between 20-29. Of the 19 players taken before them, only 5 are better NBA players (Zion, Ja, Garland, Hayes & Herro).

Of course, that leaves out the guys who went in R2: Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Bol Bol, & Terance Mann.

Caleb Martin went undrafted in 2019.
He's turned out to be better than 1/2 the guys taken in the lottery that year.
Live with it.

payitforward wrote:Of the top 10 picks, so far only Dyson Daniels has looked good.

Dyson has been great! I expect his 3 point percentage to fall back to earth though. He's still a crummy FT shooter and that whole side of things is still the big weakness in his game. But for a raw, high potential 19 year old, he's playing fantastic. And he's gained the coach's trust on the defensive side.

I do think Mathurin has been a great rookie too. His percentages look low, but he's getting to the line a lot so his TS% is actually pretty fine. He's rebounding OK for a SG too. And everything looks easy for him. He's not pressing, he's not overwhelmed or relying on a lucky streak of shooting.

Compare Mathurin's stats to 20 year old, year 2 Devon Booker. I suspect Benedict will end up a half tier below Book (not as much of a playmaker), but his future looks very promising.

Watched Houston beat the Suns last night and Eason was very impressive, especially on D (wish we had drafted him as Doc wanted). Nembhard went off in a couple of games last week. He looks like this year’s Brogdon in many respects.

And I love how Kessler's excellent shot blocking and rebounding have, not surprisingly, carried over from his college days. In fact, I'm about to try to add him to my fantasy team now that it looks like he may soon be starting for the Jazz.

But the three most talented rookies with probably the highest ceilings, imo, are Banchero, Mathurin and Ivey…and if the draft was redone I'm sure they’d still be among the top 5-6 picks. (Dyson and Eason could also easily fall in this group.) Mathurin is very poised for a rookie, as Illuminaire points out.

Banchero, Ivey and Mathurin (all of whom are just 20 yrs old) have been asked to be one of the centerpieces of their team’s offense...and thus the focus of the other team’s D. I attribute at least some of their struggles to that reality.

This thread makes me sad.

I really coveted Daniels and he is playing great. I would have sacrificed something minor (Rui?) to move up for him, but who knows if such a deal was feasible.

My choices out of those left on the board at #10 were Eason and AJ Griffin. And both are playing very well.

DCZards wrote:Watched Houston beat the Suns last night and Eason was very impressive, especially on D (wish we had drafted him as Doc wanted). Nembhard went off in a couple of games last week. He looks like this year’s Brogdon in many respects.

And I love how Kessler's excellent shot blocking and rebounding have, not surprisingly, carried over from his college days. In fact, I'm about to try to add him to my fantasy team now that it looks like he may soon be starting for the Jazz.

But the three most talented rookies with probably the highest ceilings, imo, are Banchero, Mathurin and Ivey…and if the draft was redone I'm sure they’d still be among the top 5-6 picks. (Dyson and Eason could also easily fall in this group.) Mathurin is very poised for a rookie, as Illuminaire points out.

Banchero, Ivey and Mathurin (all of whom are just 20 yrs old) have been asked to be one of the centerpieces of their team’s offense...and thus the focus of the other team’s D. I attribute at least some of their struggles to that reality.

I agree with all this, Zards -- it's hard to imagine a reason that Mathurin & Ivey wouldn't become truly outstanding players. I'm not quite as sure about Banchero, but truth is that if you ask me why... I don't really have anything to support the feeling.

I've been surprised by the fact that Keegan Murray isn't excelling -- at least not yet. He looked like he would step right in.

Nembhard is a terrific story, isn't he! Kid's already got a 31 point, 13 rebound game to his credit! Brogdon is a great comparison for him....

Just think... if only we'd traded down with Houston -- our 10 for their 17 & 26 -- as someone suggested (I don't quite remember who...) -- we could have had both Eason & Nembhard.

Imagine if we'd done that, & made a solid R2 pick, why... with Jordan Goodwin (PIF's Mr. Irrelevant - - shows you how smart I am!), we might almost look like we knew what we were doing!

nate33 wrote:This thread makes me sad.

I really coveted Daniels and he is playing great. I would have sacrificed something minor (Rui?) to move up for him, but who knows if such a deal was feasible.

My choices out of those left on the board at #10 were Eason and AJ Griffin. And both are playing very well.

It's really hard not to gnash your teeth... the amount of money we've left on the table the last 4 years. Really sad.... Sadder yet is the seemingly obvious fact that they don't seem to learn from their mistakes.

Soooo... careening towards the middle of the season what's going on with those class of '22 rookies?

Walker Kessler continues to be head and shoulders above absolutely any other player drafted in 2022. Picked #22 he certainly demonstrates -- as so many have before him, but it really never sinks in -- that, NO, the top talents in the draft are not the guys picked at the top of the draft.

In fact, only 1 of the top 11 guys picked has come anywhere close to living up to his booking so far -- namely Dyson Daniels. He's no Walker Kessler of course -- but he's playing extremely well all the same. As is Jalen Duren.

The very top picks have been particularly bad -- Banchero, Ivey, Murray & Mathurin have pretty much stunk so far. Overall, that is. Doesn't mean it will stay that way: all 4 of those guys have been put in the position of stepping in right away & leading their teams.

OTOH, every one of those guys has been a lot better than #3 pick, Jabari Smith who looks like he can't play at all.

Mathurin & Ivey started out strong, but their numbers have tanked something awful.

Tari Eason continues to have a terrific rookie year.

Jalen Williams, whom so many here liked so much, has looked pretty good, as has Andrew Nembhard.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-jan-4-2023-edition

TBH, I think this is a bunch of unresearched nonsense.

Don't get me wrong: for Banchero, Ivey, Murray & Mathurin to come into the league & command big minutes & be unafraid to assert themselves speaks well for them & augurs well for their futures. No doubt about it.

But that's not the same as playing well by the well-understood measures that define the phrase & take teams to wins. The fact is that none of them is playing the least bit well so far this season according to those metrics.

Walker Kessler is doing that -- at a very high level. So are Dyson Daniels, Jalen Duren & Tari Eason -- but even combined those 4 guys don't get the coverage Banchero gets.

payitforward wrote:

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-jan-4-2023-edition

TBH, I think this is a bunch of unresearched nonsense.

Don't get me wrong: for Banchero, Ivey, Murray & Mathurin to come into the league & command big minutes & be unafraid to assert themselves speaks well for them & augurs well for their futures. No doubt about it.

But that's not the same as playing well by the well-understood measures that define the phrase & take teams to wins. The fact is that none of them is playing the least bit well so far this season according to those metrics.

Walker Kessler is doing that -- at a very high level. So are Dyson Daniels, Jalen Duren & Tari Eason -- but even combined those 4 guys don't get the coverage Banchero gets.

I think your overly harsh completely ignoring the very different roles these players are thrown into for their different squads. Banchero was asked to be the #1 option from day one. That's an incredible ask of a kid that just recently turned 20. Its commendable what he's done thus far under those circumstances and he's appropriately being recognized.

You said Jaden Ivey started off well then really slumped? Why? Because he was supposed to be playing off Cade and then Cade got injured so that puts Ivey in a primary role he was likely not quite ready for.

How would these guys do as a 3rd or 4th option? Consequently how would Walker Kessler or Dyson Daniels do if they were cast into much greater roles offensively?

Not knocking either. Both are performing well for their repsective teams. So are Duren & Eason. My only concern just looking at raw data without context is propping up the love for low usage role players over some of the high volume shot creators that will likely be all-stars much sooner than later.

Agbaji is another rookie who appears to be far better than Johnny Davis.

I was talking and engaging kings fans about Murray and man they seem pretty delusional on him when his numbers do not tell a good story.

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Agbaji has played 100 terrible minutes.
But with him & Murray -- all of them really -- we're just looking at how they're doing so far.

E.g. not going to draw any conclusions about guys like Mathurin & Ivey....

(Or Agbaji or Malakhi Branham or any of the guys who've gotten off to rocky starts)

Then there's OUR ability to draft well -- about that it's hard not arrive a definitive perspective! Negative, unfortunately....