Deni Avdija - Part II

[2Fluffy4U]

Neither of them was good. But Deni was better than Rui. Just look at the numbers.

You dont watch much basketball other than Wizards,easy to see.
The numbers that count are the Lakers looking at signing Rui 4yrs at 80 million to hold onto him and wondering if the Wizards getting a Jarace Walker, Ausar Thompson ,Grady Dick in the draft is Avidja's days in DC in jeopardy.

So this means signing Bertans meant he was better?

I wouldn't use those numbers to decide who is better at the moment.. need additional season or two to better see how both adjusted to changes around them.. but thats just me I guess

[nate33]

I think they should offer him a modest contract extension now.

Rookie contract extensions almost never happen, except for stars getting max money, or very old rookies who are beyond the point where significant improvement can be expected (Brandon Clarke, for example).

At the moment, there is no salary that both sides would consider reasonable. Deni is going to assume he is about to break out and become an above-average starter and will expect to be paid like that ($16-20M a year or so). The Wizards won't dare pay a guy like Deni that much when there's a very real possibility that his shot never improves and he is just not a starting caliber player.

[FAH1223]

I think they should offer him a modest contract extension now.

Rookie contract extensions almost never happen, except for stars getting max money, or very old rookies who are beyond the point where significant improvement can be expected (Brandon Clarke, for example).

At the moment, there is no salary that both sides would consider reasonable. Deni is going to assume he is about to break out and become an above-average starter and will expect to be paid like that ($16-20M a year or so). The Wizards won't dare pay a guy like Deni that much when there's a very real possibility that his shot never improves and he is just not a starting caliber player.

Yup. Let Deni get to restricted free agency is my call!

[dckingsfan]

Without a major breakout from Avdija, it's tough to imagine that he'll be here next year. And with our first-round draft pick likely being in the same position he is, it'll be fascinating to see how much of a leash Avdija gets this year.

I agree with your first point, he is going to have to make a material jump this coming year if he is going to get that contract he wants to stick around.

I don't agree with the minutes he is going to get to play unless the Wizards have a miracle and get some really good players that take from his minutes. I think he gets the ~ 2000 minutes again this year.

I have my toes and fingers crossed for that jump...

Just doing the math, the team has three positions clearly locked. Assuming there is no major turning of the ship.

Beal - Kuzma - Porzingis

After those three, we have Davis, Kispert and our first-round draft pick. Where does Deni Avdija fit into that? Davis showed major improvement going into the end of the year. Kispert showed major improvement from 1st year to 2nd year. FG% increased, 3p% increased and points increased by significant amounts. And when you look closer at the numbers Kispert over the last 22 games Kispert shot 53% from the field, 45% from 3 (on 6.9 3's a game) and 15 ppg. Now the x-factor is what position will the Wizards end up drafting. But regardless, things don't bode well for Avdija.

His 3-point shooting decreased in from year 2 to year 3. His PER dropped from year 2 to year 3. His VORP dropped from year 2 to year 3. And, perhaps the worst of all, if you could isolate his performance to focus solely on how he performed when Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis were healthy, his numbers really fall off the cliff. To put it another way, Avdija was at his best when the Wizards core players were not playing and the offense could run through him. Given these are the facts (and they are not up for dispute) where does this leave us? Davis and Kispert fit better with our core 3 players.

If someone can make an argument for Avdija being part of the long-term vision for this team I'd love to hear it. The only realistic scenario I can think of is if we just decided to tear it down and rebuild. Then Avdija could lead the tank.

I am hoping that Kuzma doesn't get signed. Could you redo this if Kuz isn't there?

I would also say that Morris/Wright are a lock as well.

[payitforward]

Neither of them was good. But Deni was better than Rui. Just look at the numbers.

You dont watch much basketball other than Wizards,easy to see....

You don't have the faintest idea of how much basketball I've watched, coached or played. You don't know how many cities I've lived in that led to me becoming a fan of the local team. You don't know how many NBA games I've gone to. You also don't know how many other countries I've lived in where basketball was played at a high level.

But you do know how to write sentences -- like the one from your post above -- that are personal & demeaning & have nothing to do with basketball but are just personal attacks. You direct them at me, certainly, but not just at me.

In fact, as far as I can tell, you have very little interest in -- and no respect for -- any opinion other than your own. You seem never to learn anything from anyone else, for example, at least not as far as can be told by your expressing the fact in response to anything anyone else writes. In your eyes, or so it seems, yours is the only opinion that counts. In short, you're not here to learn anything; you just like to blow your tinny little horn.

&, hey, it's a free country, as they say. So, go ahead, knock yourself out! Not that anyone's paying much attention as far as I can tell.

As to this...

The numbers that count are the Lakers looking at signing Rui 4yrs at 80 million to hold onto him and wondering if the Wizards getting a Jarace Walker, Ausar Thompson ,Grady Dick in the draft is Avidja's days in DC in jeopardy.

...I'll tell you a story to illustrate what your words mean:

Once I was walking in some lovely countryside -- this was far away on the other side of the planet -- & I found myself in farmland, rolling hills of green under a bright blue sky with just a few puffy white clouds. The scene was pleasant and relaxing, as you can imagine, and I stopped to gaze at the beauty around me.

Suddenly, I heard a discordant, disruptive sound, as a donkey began to hee-haw noisily in the field nearby. It was a bit of a shock, to tell the truth.

But as I walked on, & my calm began to return, I realized something that has turned out to be useful -- actually kind of important -- in the decades since that day:

Spoiler:

There's no reason to be surprised when an ass brays: what else would you expect it to do?

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

This is very encouraging.

My sense was that Deni had dropped off defensively a bit last year. He seemed to cede more made shots in an effort to avoid fouls. But I guess I was only noticing the actual shot attempts that the player got off. Deni must be doing the work beforehand - denying his player the ball in the first place, or cutting off his angle so that the player passes off rather than shoots.

[doclinkin]

Read on Twitter

This is very encouraging.

My sense was that Deni had dropped off defensively a bit last year. He seemed to cede more made shots in an effort to avoid fouls. But I guess I was only noticing the actual shot attempts that the player got off. Deni must be doing the work beforehand - denying his player the ball in the first place, or cutting off his angle so that the player passes off rather than shoots.

Grew up a soccer player, so yes. Angles. And awareness of team play, spacing.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

This is very encouraging.

My sense was that Deni had dropped off defensively a bit last year. He seemed to cede more made shots in an effort to avoid fouls. But I guess I was only noticing the actual shot attempts that the player got off. Deni must be doing the work beforehand - denying his player the ball in the first place, or cutting off his angle so that the player passes off rather than shoots.

Grew up a soccer player, so yes. Angles. And awareness of team play, spacing.

The other good news is that this metric is purely for perimeter isolation defense. Some of these guys, like Kuminga and Murray, may be good in isolation situations, but they're not necessarily good team defenders. Deni is also a very good team defender. The guy is always in the right place and knows when to rotate versus stay at home. He is also an excellent rebounder at his position.

[badinage]

It will be interesting to see how the team plays on offense next season. Unseld Jr. is going to have to play them at a faster pace, and with more motion. Less iso, I would hope. Even Poole — who jacks — knows how to play in a system where players share and move.

And that can only be a good thing for Deni.

[Rafael122]

15-20 million is his range. I mean Thybulle just got $11 million per and he can't shoot. But it appears this is what most of the people in the 2019 draft class are getting, essentially slightly above the MLE. If Deni develops a shot, then I could see the higher end of that range.

[Dat2U]

15-20 million is his range. I mean Thybulle just got $11 million per and he can't shoot. But it appears this is what most of the people in the 2019 draft class are getting, essentially slightly above the MLE. If Deni develops a shot, then I could see the higher end of that range.

Avdija is not a lock down individual & elite team defender like Thybulle. Matisse is a game changer defensively, Deni at this stage is still barely has a positive impact at this stage.

[Rafael122]

15-20 million is his range. I mean Thybulle just got $11 million per and he can't shoot. But it appears this is what most of the people in the 2019 draft class are getting, essentially slightly above the MLE. If Deni develops a shot, then I could see the higher end of that range.

Avdija is not a lock down individual & elite team defender like Thybulle. Matisse is a game changer defensively, Deni at this stage is still barely has a positive impact at this stage.

Right, but Rui just got $17 mil per year, so that's in the ballpark of what Deni will get. It's what it is.

[Runner300]

He'll either get traded this season or S&T next season.
There are 4-5 other guys on his position in roster right now...

[nate33]

He'll either get traded this season or S&T next season.
There are 4-5 other guys on his position in roster right now...

If you consider him a SF, then yes, there is a lot of competition.

But he is also perfectly capable of playing PF. And at PF, the only competition is Kuzma and perhaps Baldwin. And he is way, way better than Baldwin at the moment. Gallo, Gill and Cooks don't count; they are not seriously part of our future.

The story with Deni is the same as it was last year. He is a very good player with a critical flaw in that his 3-point shot is terrible. If he can't get that 3P% above 33% he is a bench player. If he gets it up to 35-36% on 4-5 3PA's/game, he is a quality starter worth $20M a year or more. Who doesn't want a quality two-way player combo forward who is an elite man defender, a good rebounder at his position, a quality ball-handler who can push the ball on the break and run secondary pick-and-roll actions, and a 35%+ 3-point shooter?

[TGW]

He'll either get traded this season or S&T next season.
There are 4-5 other guys on his position in roster right now...

No there isn't. Other than Kispert, Deni is the only true SF on the roster. You can run some other guys at the position, but it's not their natural position.

[nate33]

He'll either get traded this season or S&T next season.
There are 4-5 other guys on his position in roster right now...

No there isn't. Other than Kispert, Deni is the only true SF on the roster. You can run some other guys at the position, but it's not their natural position.

I figure Coulibaly will end up as a SF as well.

But I agree with your basic point. Both Kispert and Coulibaly can log some minutes at SG if necessary; so, any way you slice it, there are enough minutes on the roster for all of Kuzma, Avdija, Kispert and Coulibaly. They can share the 96 minutes available at both forward positions, plus steal another 20 minutes or so at SG. That's 116 total minutes, which averages out to 29 minutes for each of the 4 players.

So I don't see Avdija being moved because of concerns over available minutes. It's certainly possible that Avdija gets traded, but if it happens, I think it will be because they're worried the market is prepared to pay him more than he is "worth".

[J-Ves]

I think they should offer him a modest contract extension now.

Rookie contract extensions almost never happen, except for stars getting max money, or very old rookies who are beyond the point where significant improvement can be expected (Brandon Clarke, for example).

At the moment, there is no salary that both sides would consider reasonable. Deni is going to assume he is about to break out and become an above-average starter and will expect to be paid like that ($16-20M a year or so). The Wizards won't dare pay a guy like Deni that much when there's a very real possibility that his shot never improves and he is just not a starting caliber player.

I'd give Deni a 4/64 deal if he was willing to take it. At the very least I'd feel it was money better spent than the contract we gave Kuz

[Runner300]

You have:
Starters:
Kyle Kuzma, Corey Kispert, Delon Wright
Vets:
Landy Shamet (?), Xavier Cooks, Jay Huff, Danilo Gallinari
Prospects:
Johnny Davis, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Bilal Coulibaly,
Honorary Mention:
Tristan Vukcevic, Eugene Omoruyi
Even Anthony Gill.

Poole, Kuzma and I don't know, Shamet? will take 80% of the shots.
They will develop Coulibaly and Davis, and the rest can run up and down the floor and wait in the corner for an accidental pass.
And yelled at on D for not covering good enough after vets.

I mean, of course, it's mostly up to Deni to show up and turn his career around.
But the team is already there, ready to make him disappear.

[badinage]

I predict Deni will get 84 mil/4.

And we’ll all be glad after the season I expect him to have. Particularly if they trade Kuz mid-season and let Deni man the PF

[doclinkin]

You have:
Starters:
Kyle Kuzma, Corey Kispert, Delon Wright
Vets:
Landy Shamet (?), Xavier Cooks, Jay Huff, Danilo Gallinari
Prospects:
Johnny Davis, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Bilal Coulibaly,
Honorary Mention:
Tristan Vukcevic, Eugene Omoruyi
Even Anthony Gill.

Poole, Kuzma and I don't know, Shamet? will take 80% of the shots.
They will develop Coulibaly and Davis, and the rest can run up and down the floor and wait in the corner for an accidental pass.
And yelled at on D for not covering good enough after vets.

I mean, of course, it's mostly up to Deni to show up and turn his career around.
But the team is already there, ready to make him disappear.

? This is the oddest line-up projection I've seen.

You have a true PG in Tyus Jones. On a young team it will be critical to have a floor general who can help players know where to be and what their role is in the game. Whether starting or leading the 2nd squad, Jones plays heavy minutes. On shot distribution/minutes the only question is how well he and Poole coexist on court. When they are on court together you will need size and defenders. Those two will share the majority of the possessions at the lead ball-handling guard role, whether you call Poole a 1 or a 2 in whatever line-up.

I don't see how Delon Wright is on the team at the end of the year. He's a role-playing late-career 3&D wing, a prime trade piece to a contender who needs exactly that. On this team, if he plays, that is his role, he will play next to Poole when Jones is off court. Maybe next to Jones if we need defense and outside shooting. In that case he nibbles at Kispert's minutes.

Kispert is a question mark due to defense. And length/speed. So far he profiles as a 6th man. He scores efficiently but who does he guard at the 2/3 spot? You tend to play most the position you guard best. If his lateral speed has picked up (what he has been working on in offseasons in the past) then he can hang with some 2-guards. But is he displacing Jordan Poole? I doubt it. Looks to me he is an offensive sub at the wing. Like Shamet, only with a better cut game to score efficiently underneath. Shamet is another afterthought, not displacing Kispert under Unseld. A solid trade piece for a team that needs outside shooting and nothing else. (Unless he can continue to develop as a back-up PG option, then maybe he steals minutes here before he is traded). No doubt Kispert earns more minutes than Shamet or Johnny Davis. I'm curious to see CK with Tyus Jones when Poole is out. But defensively a Jones/ Poole/ Kispert backcourt is getting torched every trip down the floor.

If you play Poole and Tyus together you will need length and defense. Your options at forward are Kuzma. Deni. Coulibaly. PBR. Vuk. Cooks. Of those only Kuzma, Deni, likely Bilal, play defense at an NBA level. Cooks might. PBR and Vuk don't. Though Vuk may get minutes at 5 due to depth issues, if they keep him stateside. I expect he seasons in Europe another year.

Bilal is 18, he will play, but he will have to earn his time. Likely at SF not 2-guard. True his talent may squeeze Deni but only at the 3 spot, when he earns it. The minutes at PF look like they will be passed back and forth between Deni and Kuz, with one of the two on court at all times unless we are being blown out or need situational outside shooting.

Gallinari is a late-career vet coming off an injury. He is not in the team's future. Playing him significant minutes would get a coach fired. He's trade bait or a negotiated buy out to end up with the Lakers/Miami/Bucks/Clippers or the like. Gill is headed back to Europe. Omuroyi is a 2-way playing afterthought, mostly on the Go-Go. Jay Huff is gone from the team.

The only player on the team that duplicates what Deni does is Xavier Cooks. If Deni can't beat out Cooks for minutes, then that's on him. But he will surely have every opportunity to do so. I think he is poised to take a step forward personally. He plays a team game that will sinter well with Jones, and possibly a developing Bilal. He patches holes left by Poole on defense.

I'd be curious to see a small ball line of:
Jones
Kispert
Bilal
Deni
Kuz

i like the team play, passing, defense and cut game in that set. Though I think it only really works if one of Bilal Kuzma or Deni develop a reliable outside shot.