Who Would You Bring Back?

[dobrojim]

If you win the Wemby-stakes, that's your rebuild. We have enough decent players to
add around VW. Our biggest problem is that our top 3 players are each slotted one place
too high in the team pecking order to be anything like a contender. If Beal/KP/Kuz
were our 2-4 best players (one could certainly argue against Kuz here if you want)
instead of our 1-3rd best players, we would move into the the top 6 in the east.

Imagine any of the other top 6 teams in the east (maybe not BRK) without
their #1 option player at all. Most would fall at least 2-4 slots.
MIL might not beat MIA without Giannis.
PHL without Embiid wouldn't scare many teams.
BOS without Tatum would be good but probably 4-6th or worse in the EC
I'm not sure who CLE's best player is which explains why NYK is poised
to eliminate them. Speaking of the Knicks, without the reliable offense
of Brunson, they don't scare anyone either.
MIA without Butler doesn't scare anyone.
ATL would be a lotto team without Tre as erratic and flawed as he is.

[nate33]

If you win the Wemby-stakes, that's your rebuild. We have enough decent players to
add around VW. Our biggest problem is that our top 3 players are each slotted one place
too high in the team pecking order to be anything like a contender. If Beal/KP/Kuz
were our 2-4 best players (one could certainly argue against Kuz here if you want)
instead of our 1-3rd best players, we would move into the the top 6 in the east.

Imagine any of the other top 6 teams in the east (maybe not BRK) without
their #1 option player at all. Most would fall at least 2-4 slots.
MIL might not beat MIA without Giannis.
PHL without Embiid wouldn't scare many teams.
BOS without Tatum would be good but probably 4-6th or worse in the EC
I'm not sure who CLE's best player is which explains why NYK is poised
to eliminate them. Speaking of the Knicks, without the reliable offense
of Brunson, they don't scare anyone either.
MIA without Butler doesn't scare anyone.
ATL would be a lotto team without Tre as erratic and flawed as he is.

I would still trade Beal. I want his salary off the books, and I still have concerns about his objectives being different from a young coach building around a 19-year-old.

Maybe I'd be more patient about it rather than rushing into the first not-awful proposal I see this summer, but I'd definitely look to move him as soon as I came across a half-decent offer. The big difference is that I would be more open to trading Beal for a younger, established player rather than trading him for picks. The dream scenario remains Jaylen Brown.

[dobrojim]

Beal is overpaid. No question. It's cap mgmt malpractice.

[DCZards]

My keepers are KP, Kispert, Goodwin, Gafford and Davis. Kispert’s long range shooting is simply too valuable for me to give up on him. And he’s shown real growth in other aspects of his offensive game.

I’d also have a roster spot (or two-way) for Jackson and Huff. Huff's combo of 3pt shooting and rim protection are enticing. I’d probably also keep Cook. He’s cheap and has some rebounding, playmaking and defensive talent that I want to see more of.

I’d also most likely keep Wright. He and KP are the kind of solid and productive vets that I’d want around on a rebuilding team. I’d consider keeping Gill as well. He doesn’t cost much and always seems to find a way to contribute pretty much every time he steps on the court. Gill is a bargain in that regard.

Beal, Kuzma and Morris are available for the right trade. I like Morris (a lot) but I would prefer not to keep him AND Wright, especially when the Zards need to give the keys to the offense to a playmaking PG, which they will hopefully either draft, trade for or sign as a free agent. (The Zards have desperately needed such a lead guard since Wall left imo.) I give the edge to Wright over Morris because of his awesome D.

Although I’d consider trading him, Deni is someone worth hanging on to. I value Deni as a defender, rebounder and secondary ballhandler. He’s gotten much better at taking opponents off the dribble and getting to the rim. Now, if he only can learn to stick the 3 with consistency and develop some sort of midrange game.

Nunn and Gibson will be gone…and the same most likely for Todd since he’s shown very little (even in the G League) the last two seasons.

[penbeast0]

There is no one I wouldn't trade if given the right offer; none of our "stars" are close to untouchable and none of our prospects are star level. I'd bring back Porzingis and Kuzma if the contracts are reasonable and let them go if too high. IF you bring them back on contract that are market level, they at least have trade value down the line. However, I wouldn't trade guys for too much of a discount when you could get more for them by having a little patience. The key for a bad team like the Wiz is to gather a core of talent.

Overall, I'd prioritize rebuilding and go full process. I don't worry too much about veteran leadership or 10 wins v. 22. Maybe once we add a great potential prospect or two by sucking first, then you worry about creating an environment for them but not when your best prospect is a 4th year Deni Avdija.

[gambitx777]

Everyone under 25 years and 11 months and under except Todd. I'll keep KP, then keep Morris and wright as tradable assets. Move everyone else.

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[payitforward]

I'd say that this thread should take on a different meaning with Winger & Schlenk running things; those two guys who have a history of shaking things up -- making major changes.

I expect just that -- "major changes" -- to this team within the year. How that might affect who we "bring back," i.e. who's with the team on opening day a few months from now, I don't know, but if you recall who ended the 2018-19 season as a member of the Wizards, & who came back to start Tommy's first season, there wasn't a whole lot of carryover.

Beal, Bryant, Brown, Wall, McRae & Mahinmi -- that's it. & of those six, McRae & Mahinmi combined for only 1400+ minutes, & Wall didn't play at all.

Overall, 19 guys who played at least some minutes in a Wizards uniform in 2018-19 were gone! & 16 new guys logged at least some minutes in 2019-20.

It would be no surprise at all to see turnover approaching that level between now & the beginning of next season.

[tleikheen]

Denvers frontline is redefining the NBA as a healthy MPJ and Murray make you wonder if healthy would they already have a ring . All of them are 28 or less and might be the team to beat the next 3/4 yrs. Jokic 6'11",MPJ 6'10",Gordon 6'8" and Murray a strong 6'4"/215 # PG are wreaking smallball lineups, Lakers tried over and over their 3 guard lineup,destroyed. Now Miami is facing the same outcome with their smallball lineup.
Wizards had KP,Gaff,Kuz,Rui and Deni as their frontline this past season and had the makings of a big frontline. All season the Wizards made it about Rui vs Kuz ,Rui vs Deni ,now Deni vs Kuz when all the time it was the lack of a PG that hurt the Wiz the most.We've seen Kuz bring the ball up,Beal bringing the ball up and Deni bringing the ball up because the Wiz lacked a quality PG. Every good West/East teams come in with a top quality PG and the Wiz are playing as the underdog.
Id keep :
C) KP (7'3") who had near 50/40/90 #'s with the worst PG rotation in the league
PF) Deni (6'9") who has ht and can rebound and can bring the ball up, he can still play the Draymond Green role.
SF) Kuzma (6'9") ,Kuz & KP can sign with other teams or take a backseat to Beal in the offensive pecking order.
SG) Beal , HAS ANYBODY SEEN ANY OTHER TEAMS WANTING TO TAKE ON BEAL AND HIS CONTRACT.
PG) S&T Kuz for Tyler Herro or Anfernee Simons if possible. Also watch Orlando's PG Fultz who might be available if they draft a PG or swing a trade for Lilliard???
Gafford , Davis ,Wright ,and Morris should be used in trades.

[nate33]

I'd say that this thread should take on a different meaning with Winger & Schlenk running things; those two guys who have a history of shaking things up -- making major changes.

I expect just that -- "major changes" -- to this team within the year. How that might affect who we "bring back," i.e. who's with the team on opening day a few months from now, I don't know, but if you recall who ended the 2018-19 season as a member of the Wizards, & who came back to start Tommy's first season, there wasn't a whole lot of carryover.

Beal, Bryant, Brown, Wall, McRae & Mahinmi -- that's it. & of those six, McRae & Mahinmi combined for only 1400+ minutes, & Wall didn't play at all.

Overall, 19 guys who played at least some minutes in a Wizards uniform in 2018-19 were gone! & 16 new guys logged at least some minutes in 2019-20.

It would be no surprise at all to see turnover approaching that level between now & the beginning of next season.

That was a different situation though. Very few guys came back because very few guys were under contract. In particular, we only had one guy with years left on his rookie deal (Brown). When you have a team full of expensive vets on expiring deals that just went 32-50, of course you would let a bunch of them go. Guys on expiring deals included: Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis, Satoransky. Why would we keep them?

The current team is completely different. Avdija, Kispert and Davis are young and on rookie deals. And Goodwin is on an even better vet minimum deal. They are almost sure to be kept. Cooks and Gill will probably be kept too since they're on vet minimum deals.

So that's 6 guys right there that are likely to be kept.

Morris and Wright and Gafford are all viable rotation players on fair-to-good contracts. They might be traded for assets, but they won't be moved for the sake of moving them. I figure at least 1 or 2 of those guys will stay. Wright is probably the most likely to be moved, either for cap savings because of the cost of Kuzma, or for a younger asset if we start a rebuild.

If there are major changes, I think it will be more about our "Big Three" rather than the low-cost role players.

Beal is the big decision, obviously. If he stays, then I'm not expecting many other changes. If he is moved, then a rebuild is under way. I would expect Wright to be traded, and possibly Kuzma and Porzingis.

Also, independent of the Beal decision, Kuzma may or may not stay based on price.

[payitforward]

Makes good sense, nate -- I didn't mean to suggest that the teams were similar in those 2 years.

What is similar is new leadership. In this case, it's leadership that has a history of responding to failure by making major moves. & clearly has the scope to do so.

All the same, you are certainly right that the guys who are on value contracts are unlikely to go -- at least not right away -- unless they make a bigger deal work.

In any case, I imagine decisions will be about who might be coming in -- who goes would be a function of what it would take to get a guy we want.

My biggest hope (no surprise) is that they recognize that they have a terrific sign and trade chip in Kuzma -- a guy who is majorly over-rated.

[WallToWall]

Every player is tradable. The ones I would keep are Gafford, Kispert, and possibly Wright, because their production-cost (or value per salary) is the highest. All three are role players and I dont think are starter material right now. Look, we dont have a good team. Its not like we are a 50 win team where we have to make hard choices in who to keep.
Beal should be traded, and maybe if Portland is hungry enough, we can get the #3 pick in return.
KP, is a good player, and I really like his game. I would like to keep him here, but I fear his price tag may be too high. He has rehabilitated his value after going through a season largely injury free. He can net a couple of first round picks in a trade.
Kuzma is fools gold. He plays hard, makes good plays, makes bad play, and ends up a net zero. The positive about him is that he doesnt shy away from clutch shots. A definite sign and trade candidate, IMO, who can get us a mid 1st round pick.
As you can see, I am advocating for getting more 1st round picks, because we need a rebuild.

[joshuacf]

Nobody is untradeable. That being said, I wouldn't be actively shopping:

Deni Avdija. This only applies assuming we don't draft Cam Whitmore or Ausur Thompson, but I'm willing to give Deni one more year to prove it. His value isn't going to be high right now anyway.

Johnny Davis. His value is low right now. He showed improvement down the stretch (he still wasn't great, but there was improvement). He made a big jump between his Freshman and sophomore years at Wisconsin and I'd like to see if the same thing can happen here.

Corey Kispert. He just turned in a great shooting season. I think he can be a great role player on a playoff team.

Daniel Gafford. He has very strong advanced stats. Can he maintain those stats while playing 30+ mpg? I'd like to find out this season. At a minimum, he's a great backup center option.

Isaiah Todd. Nobody wants him and we'd have to pay to get rid of him. This is the final guaranteed year on his contract. I'm fine keeping him for one more year to see if he can make a jump.

Jordan Goodwin. Could end up having a nice career as a solid 3rd string PG in the NBA. Since I'd be looking to move Monte Morris and Delon Wright we need him.

Anthony Gill. Cheap veteran leader who can play minutes.

Everyone else I'd be looking to move. Picks, pick swaps, young players, whatever we can get.

[DirtyDez]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

[NatP4]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

What

[9 and 20]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

What

That + in 'expiring+' is doing a lot of work.

[doclinkin]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

He hasn't lost any steps. He actually scored more efficiently this past year than he did when he was gunning for the scoring title. The only negatives for Beal this past year were his silly contract and his health. In every other respect he's a solid player for any team. A willing passer, good handle on the ball, active play off the ball, efficient scoring. To also jettison a developing player just to shed salary doesn't make sense. He has value higher than that. A playoff team who needs a 1b scorer or 2nd option will pay to add him. There have been enough teams actively recruiting him for years. Other players and front offices still respect his game.

Anyway the team can't 'dump him'. Beal has a no trade clause, so teams who want him better be winning squads with a coach and players he likes. A good fit. I don't think he is a great fit next to Booker.

[gambitx777]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

He hasn't lost any steps. He actually scored more efficiently this past year than he did when he was gunning for the scoring title. The only negatives for Beal this past year were his silly contract and his health. In every other respect he's a solid player for any team. A willing passer, good handle on the ball, active play off the ball, efficient scoring. To also jettison a developing player just to shed salary doesn't make sense. He has value higher than that. A playoff team who needs a 1b scorer or 2nd option will pay to add him. There have been enough teams actively recruiting him for years. Other players and front offices still respect his game.

Anyway the team can't 'dump him'. Beal has a no trade clause, so teams who want him better be winning squads with a coach and players he likes. A good fit. I don't think he is a great fit next to Booker.

I think the teams likely to want him, would be Miami, NYC, maybe Portland and Orlando. NYC and Miami I can see him wanting to go to. The Florida team might appeal to him and his family, I can't see him wanting Portland. But that's about it. The LA teams and GS maybe but for what? He would go but they don't have the assets or appealing contacts. Kings but again what would they trade? Dallas is in the same boat. They have no contracts to trade that we would want. Brooklyn has the stuff but Spencer is an issue. Those are our options.

Make no mistake we won't be getting Tyler hero, or Jordan pool nor should we target guys like that. We should be targeting a pick package, at least one player under 24 and expiring deals.

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[joshuacf]

How many steps has Beal lost since his scoring title season? Would they consider dumping him along with a young player for CP3’s expiring+?

He hasn't lost any steps. He actually scored more efficiently this past year than he did when he was gunning for the scoring title. The only negatives for Beal this past year were his silly contract and his health. In every other respect he's a solid player for any team. A willing passer, good handle on the ball, active play off the ball, efficient scoring. To also jettison a developing player just to shed salary doesn't make sense. He has value higher than that. A playoff team who needs a 1b scorer or 2nd option will pay to add him. There have been enough teams actively recruiting him for years. Other players and front offices still respect his game.

Anyway the team can't 'dump him'. Beal has a no trade clause, so teams who want him better be winning squads with a coach and players he likes. A good fit. I don't think he is a great fit next to Booker.

I disagree about Beal not having lost a step. All of his major advanced stats (PER, WS, BPM) are down from 20-21. Sure his efficiency is up, but that's because his volume is down.

[doclinkin]

I disagree about Beal not having lost a step. All of his major advanced stats (PER, WS, BPM) are down from 20-21. Sure his efficiency is up, but that's because his volume is down.

PER is known to be a garbage stat. It rewards you for taking a shot and missing it. Win score is dependent on how many games you actually won, yes Beal was more responsible for the wins we earned than other players on the team in the years that we sucked. We still lost. Box plus minus is strongly affected by the quality of your teammates in the line-up. Okay you can make that argument if you want, that Beal surrounded by worse players was a better scorer even if he was significantly less efficient. Go ahead and build that case if you want. His overall numbers were better this year, he simply played fewer minutes and fewer games. But he did so with more game impact when he was on court.

Efficiency matters. Yes Beal is a better player when he is able to defer to a more talented player. That is part of what makes him desirable as a teammate, and why he was so heavily recruited by the likes of LeBJ et al. The fact that he can contribute efficiently when next to other high volume players is the primary reason why playoff teams may be willing to pay that high price to land him. This team lost with Beal trying to carry them solo. But if Beal is slotted into an already winning structure, he likely sees even better effect. He has shown that his own usefulness increases when he is not trying to gun the team into games by himself.

Yeah players like Kuzma will look nice in their counting stats in a year when they fire every bullet in the clip, hit or miss. As Beal did when he was chasing Stef. But we lost this year in large part because of too many inefficient empty possessions. We likewise had many of those when we were relying on Beal to do all the winning for us. It is to Beal's credit that he played better this year despite having to share the ball. Hopefully that bodes well for however his game may have to transition in the next phase of his career. Here, or elsewhere if teams come mid-season asking what it would take to land him.

I still expect we don't see him traded until mid-season if at all this year. After he earns the Wiz all time scoring title.

[joshuacf]

I disagree about Beal not having lost a step. All of his major advanced stats (PER, WS, BPM) are down from 20-21. Sure his efficiency is up, but that's because his volume is down.

PER is known to be a garbage stat. It rewards you for taking a shot and missing it. Win score is dependent on how many games you actually won, yes Beal was more responsible for the wins we earned than other players on the team in the years that we sucked. We still lost. Box plus minus is strongly affected by the quality of your teammates in the line-up. Okay you can make that argument if you want, that Beal surrounded by worse players was a better scorer even if he was significantly less efficient. Go ahead and build that case if you want. His overall numbers were better this year, he simply played fewer minutes and fewer games. But he did so with more game impact when he was on court.

Efficiency matters. Yes Beal is a better player when he is able to defer to a more talented player. That is part of what makes him desirable as a teammate, and why he was so heavily recruited by the likes of LeBJ et al. The fact that he can contribute efficiently when next to other high volume players is the primary reason why playoff teams may be willing to pay that high price to land him. This team lost with Beal trying to carry them solo. But if Beal is slotted into an already winning structure, he likely sees even better effect. He has shown that his own usefulness increases when he is not trying to gun the team into games by himself.

Yeah players like Kuzma will look nice in their counting stats in a year when they fire every bullet in the clip, hit or miss. As Beal did when he was chasing Stef. But we lost this year in large part because of too many inefficient empty possessions. We likewise had many of those when we were relying on Beal to do all the winning for us. It is to Beal's credit that he played better this year despite having to share the ball. Hopefully that bodes well for however his game may have to transition in the next phase of his career. Here, or elsewhere if teams come mid-season asking what it would take to land him.

I still expect we don't see him traded until mid-season if at all this year. After he earns the Wiz all time scoring title.

What advanced stat would you like to look at instead of PER? Serious question, what advanced stat do you think shows the better picture that shows Beal was better this year than he was in 20-21?

Beal's TS% last season was the same as it was in 2020-21 (like literally the exact same, 0.593). His rebounding numbers were down across the board. His turnover percentage was up (12.9% in 23-23 vs 10.6% in 20-21). His BPM was down significantly, as I mentioned before. His RAPTOR is down. His RPM is down.

Like I said before, his efficiency went up because his attempts went down. There is an inverse correlation between volume and efficiency. The minimal (and they were minimal) gains in his efficiency do not offset the substantial decrease in production. If Beal takes 5 shots a game next year, his efficiency will probably be great. That wouldn't mean he was a better basketball player than he was in 20-21.

The bit about the team losing when Beal tried to carry them cracked me up. The most competitive we've been with Beal in the post-Wall era was in 20-21 when Beal was putting up his biggest scoring numbers. What did the Wizards do this year when he didn't try to carry them solo?

Beal did not play better this year than he did in 20-21. Putting up 31.3 ppg on .485/.349/.889 is better than 23.2 ppg on .506/.365/.842.