Patrick Baldwin Jr

[Warriors Analyst]

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Hollinger’s analysis of PBJ completely ignores the injuries that tanked his productivity. PBJ’s father was his coach in college. His father did eventually get fired. PBJ played through injury and discomfort to try and keep his dad’s job.

Yeah, PBJ certainly doesn’t look the part of a former top HS prospect anymore. His athleticism isn’t impressive and he’s definitely not a shot creator with the ball in his hands. But he’s a smart player and Hollinger’s analysis also ignores how awful the guard play was on PBJ’s college team, which also played a big role in his inefficiency. In his limited physical state, PBJ wasn’t good at creating his own looks and struggled to make shots efficiently when he put the ball on the floor. Because his guards were bad, he had to do more of that than he should have.

At the NBA level, he’ll always share the court with a few players who are more capable of creating. He’ll feed off of the space he gets and should be a quality shooter. If his body gets right long term, he should be able to attack closeouts. But he’s definitely not going to be someone you ask to take bailout shots late in the clock or ask to initiate pick-and-rolls.

Another Warriors fan came in here and said PBJ struggled on defense. I don’t agree with that. PBJ certainly is not going to survive guarding wings all night and he’s not ever going to be a weak side rim protector, but he’s smart and knows where to go. Physical limitations may limit his defensive ceiling, but I think the floor is already acceptable. In his few stints of rotation minutes alongside the adults, PBJ knew where to go and didn’t make mistakes. To be invisible on defense as a rookie is impressive!

Here are a few clips of PBJ's defense I cut up last season:

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Here's some offense:

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I've also linked to an article I wrote about PBJ after watching some of his college film using the idea of watching a best and worst game from his season to see what he is like at his worst and best.

https://t.co/rUTo9zeH6E

A few clips I cut up of his college passing:

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If you want to get a sense of just how awful his guards in college were...

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[mhd]

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Hollinger’s analysis of PBJ completely ignores the injuries that tanked his productivity. PBJ’s father was his coach in college. His father did eventually get fired. PBJ played through injury and discomfort to try and keep his dad’s job.

Yeah, PBJ certainly doesn’t look the part of a former top HS prospect anymore. His athleticism isn’t impressive and he’s definitely not a shot creator with the ball in his hands. But he’s a smart player and Hollinger’s analysis also ignores how awful the guard play was on PBJ’s college team, which also played a big role in his inefficiency. In his limited physical state, PBJ wasn’t good at creating his own looks and struggled to make shots efficiently when he put the ball on the floor. Because his guards were bad, he had to do more of that than he should have.

At the NBA level, he’ll always share the court with a few players who are more capable of creating. He’ll feed off of the space he gets and should be a quality shooter. If his body gets right long term, he should be able to attack closeouts. But he’s definitely not going to be someone you ask to take bailout shots late in the clock or ask to initiate pick-and-rolls.

Another Warriors fan came in here and said PBJ struggled on defense. I don’t agree with that. PBJ certainly is not going to survive guarding wings all night and he’s not ever going to be a weak side rim protector, but he’s smart and knows where to go. Physical limitations may limit his defensive ceiling, but I think the floor is already acceptable. In his few stints of rotation minutes alongside the adults, PBJ knew where to go and didn’t make mistakes. To be invisible on defense as a rookie is impressive!

I'd take him 100x over Isiah Todd (whom we traded away in the Beal trade). If nothing else, PBJ is a lotto ticket who will get PT here in a low pressure environment.

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I continue to be grateful for the outstanding contributions from Warriors Analyst! Thanks!

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Slow day. So I thought I’d toss this opinion piece out there…just for the fun of it.

Read the entire article at link below. He has high praise for Bilal.

Washington Wizards: 3 winners and 3 losers from Summer League
by Gibson Lowenberg

Undoubtably, the biggest winner of the Washington Wizards’ Summer League was Patrick Baldwin Jr

Coming into the Summer League, Patrick Baldwin Jr was expected to be a catch and shoot specialist and a defensive liability. Not only has he proven he can do more than just catch and shoot, but he also looked like a quality NBA defender.

On offense, Baldwin Jr created looks for himself off the dribble time and time again, he also continued to be great off the catch. He even made some impressive reads with playmaking, making his offense a muti-layered attack and something the Wizards should look forward to.

One defense, he impressed even more. His timing was far improved from last season and as I’ve said many times before, he seemed far more involved both physically and mentally. This is a development that might make him a huge gain for the team as he was only a throw in last minute to the Chris Paul for Jordan Poole trade.

Patrick Baldwin Jr’s emergence in the Summer League will inevitably lead to him getting at least quality rotation minutes for the Washington Wizards early on in the season. He may even have an opportunity to compete for a starting role at some point in the year.

https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/21/washington-wizards-winners-losers-summer/

Was that article written by PBJ's agent? WTF? A quality NBA defender? Is he serious?

PBJ posted a 3P% of .273. He didn't even show the "shooting specialist" part of it, much less anything else. He shot a grand total of 4 FT's in 4 games, so he wasn't creating great looks with his dribble drive game or demonstrating a "multi-layered attack" either. He averaged just 5 rebounds in 27 minutes a game despite his 6-10 height. He had literally 0 offensive rebounds in 4 games. lol.

The only thing that was remotely interesting was his 2.3 assists per game to just 0.8 turnovers, suggesting unselfishness and a solid feel for the game offensively.

(I moved the above from the SL thread for obvious reasons)

My takeaway from nate's comment (& related comments by others) is simple -- Patrick Baldwin's future as an NBA player depends on 2 key factors:

1. He has to be an elite, or near-elite, shooter, above all on 3-pointers.
2. He has to be an adequate team defender & not altogether awful 1-on-1.

Does the above make sense? If so, that's what we can watch for.

In addition, since PBJ was acquired for the pick GS used on Trayce Jackson-Davis, it seems relevant to follow Baldwin's development in comparison with TJ-D -- although we don't know that the Wizards would have used the #57 on him had they kept the pick.

[nate33]

Doc posted this in the rotations thread. I thought I'd repost here. PBJ does look a lot more fluid and athletic before the injuries:

That said the kid we saw in HS before the multi-time leg injury, and before the bout with COVID, is a player worth a gamble as far as I'm concerned. This guy looks like he can play:

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[nate33]

Baldwin lighting it up with the Go-Go last night:

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While we're at it:

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and...

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Plus --& do not miss this one:

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[nate33]

His G-League numbers are really good. I'm not saying this is proof that he'll amount to anything, but at least it's not confirming that he is a bust.

In 10 games this year, his per 36 minute numbers are:

19.5 points
10.3 rebounds
3.0 assists
3.0 blocks
1.0 steals
1.7 turnovers
4.4 fouls
.597 TS%
.350 3P% (on 8.5 attempts).
+10.3 +/-

(He is actually playing 27.1 minutes per game)

He turned 21 two months ago. Judging from recent game footage, he looks a lot more mobile and agile than he did in Summer League. He looked so stiff then. He still seems averse to contact, though. He is playing center so 10.3 rebounds per 36 isn't really all that great. I like the 3.0 blocks though.

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Glad to see he's doing well. Would be nice to hit on a lottery ticket, especially when our blue chip investments are kinda mid. Johnny Davis, looking at you.