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To me at least the trade deadline moves were terrific.
You may have a different view.

It'll be interesting to have a place to check back later. See how wrong (right?) we all were!

So... what do you think?

I give A+ for effort but a B for the actual trades. Value wise we got the short end of the stick every time but all the deals make sense for a team in our position. It will be nice to have an extra pick to scout in ‘25 and ‘26

I loved it! Glad to see us so active, and able to dump our dead weight. I seriously thought we would not be able to move any of Kuzma, Valenciunas, or Brogdon. I didn't think anyone would want any of them for various reasons, and we in fact moved Kuzma, Valenciunas, AND Bagley, Johnny Davis, Baldwin.

To get back a 1st this year and next, and acquire rookie AJ Johnson... I am thrilled. Plus Smart and Middleton could end up being better vets/mentors than Kuzma and Valenciunas.

I am just hoping at some point this season we see a team on the floor of AJ, Bub, Bilal, Kyshawn, Sarr for some kind of stretch just to see what it looks like and how they play together. That to me would be exciting!

J-Ves wrote:...Value wise we got the short end of the stick every time....

Wow. I really disagree with this.

I would have been happy with Johnson straight up for Kuzma. Middleton is likely to bring something back in a trade.

We got a R1 pick & Colby Jones for Bagley & Davis. We also took on Marcus Smart's salary, but that's not a problem we have to care about!

I liked Butler, we all did, but another R1 pick in what looks to be the strongest draft in many years was worth giving up what we had to.

In fairness, admittedly, who the h@ll really knows what that pick will bring us: we'll have to see.

I thought we did really well. Getting any value for Kuz after his play this year was great. And the Valanciunus trade got 2 seconds AND opened the space for us to take on Smart, because the Kings took him into a trade exception, allowing us to get a first too.
Four seconds and Butler for one late first isn’t good value but we had too many seconds to find roster spots for. My guess is we have a couple of players specifically in mind for that pick.

J-Ves wrote:I give A+ for effort but a B for the actual trades. Value wise we got the short end of the stick every time but all the deals make sense for a team in our position. It will be nice to have an extra pick to scout in ‘25 and ‘26

I think the Smart trade was actually a pretty strong deal that favored us. We only took on one year of salary, salary we were going to have to pay to get up the cap minimum anyhow. And it's not like Smart is an utterly useless player. He has slipped a bit and is no longer worth his salary, but he still belongs in the league.

The JV deal was probably about right. We weren't fleeced but we didn't fleece them either. It's hard to expect much more than two SRP's for a guy that probably is only a regular season minutes eater. I don't think JV is the kind of guy who stays on the floor in the second round of the playoffs.

The Jared Butler plus 4 SRP's for the last pick in the 2026 draft was probably a poor trade in the abstract. But with the overwhelming number of SRP's we had, it was critical to try and consolidate them. I wish we could have done better, but still, 1 late FRP is still more useful to us than a bunch of SRP's on a roster already overcrowded with youngsters trying to get a shot.

I was a little underwhelmed by the Kuzma deal. I don't have a lot of faith that the pick swap is going to pan out, so we mostly traded a SRP to land a disappointing 2024 FRP who couldn't get on the floor and some salary savings. I get the argument that dumping a disgruntled Kuzma was addition by subtraction, but in the abstract, I think a motivated Kuzma is still more useful than a broken down Middleton. I suppose there's an argument that this trade isn't over yet. If we can flip Middleton at the Trade Deadline for a contract that expires in 2027 and more pick capital, that would have to get factored into this trade analysis.

We also got Colby Jones in one of the Sac'to deals -- another young'un. & made room for Jaylen Martin by moving Butler. So, how those two guys work out (if either does) may make the deals look more advantageous.

We were hoping to get a '24 R1 pick for Kuz, &, in the end, we did! I.e. you left AJ Johnson out of your description of the deal. Now, don't get me wrong... who knows how he'll pan out.

I'd say the only negatives for Wizards in any of these deals is that we took on a load of salary dollars. But, given the number of young players we have at relatively low $$, not even that truly matters.

The Grizzlies trade was fine, even though I cannot stand Marcus Dumb (and yes I've been calling him that for years). A-

The JV trade was also fine. A couple mediocre seconds is about what he's worth at this point in his career. B

The Butler trade was atrocious to me and I stick by that. D

The Kuzma trade was meh. They could have gotten a real pick for him last season. Instead they had to settle for Johnson, who by all accounts was significantly overdrafted, and a pick that more than likely won't convey. C+

nate33 wrote:I was a little underwhelmed by the Kuzma deal. I don't have a lot of faith that the pick swap is going to pan out, so we mostly traded a SRP to land a disappointing 2024 FRP who couldn't get on the floor and some salary savings.

That’s unfair. The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Kuz + PBJ + 2025 2nd FOR Midd + AJ Johnson + 2028 1st swap
Kuz was negative value on the court for us. Beyond his sour attitude and not coming into the season in shape, he took shots away from the young players, and didnt play within the framework of the O and D. I look at AJ Johnson as a 1st round pick that we get back in return. PBJ was not going to get much playing time with us, and was not in our long term plans. I look at it as trading PBJ and a 2nd for a 1st swap. Middleton has trade value. We could flip him for a low 1st or at least a 2nd, or use to move up in this upcoming draft. I really cant think of any way Dawkins could have made this better, other than trading Kuz last year. Consensus was that we were not getting two 1st's for him, although there is a report that DAL would have paid the price. I didnt know much at all about Johnson but now that I've seen him play, I think we got something here. As it stands, I look at this as trading a vualuable but unwanted asset in Kuz + 2nd for a 1st (Johnson) + a 1st pick swap + at least a 2nd and maybe a 1st (Midd). I give this an A-.

Valanciunas FOR two 2nd's. Consensus was that Val would get us one 2nd. Even with his team friendly deal, I dont think we could have got more. He is slow footed, but still manages to get rebounds based on his positioning. He is a backup big. Is that worth more than two 2nds? I think not. Dawkins couldnt have done better here - I dont think he could have extracted a 1st from any team once the Lakers went a different direction. Solid A grade.

Butler + four 2nds FOR 2026 1st rnd pick. Got another 1st. I liked how Butler played for us, but he didnt fit in the long term plans. Glad he will get a chance somewhere else. He is a reasonable 2nd PG for any team. We got all theose 2nds to do something with. This is what we do with it - move up in the draft. Is for 2nds + Butler too high of a price for a 1st? Depends on where that 1st lands. I give an A-.

Bagley + Davis + two 2nds FOR Smart +Colby Jones + 2025 1st. Bags always had promise, but he was injured a lot. He is running out of chances. Oh Davis...I hope he catches on somewhere after a fresh start. Both players were not giving us much of anything, and were not in our future plans. We get another 1st. Whats not to like about that? Jones is another guard that I dont know much about, but we now have 6834 guards, and I dont know where he fits. Smart has more left in the tank and will be a great teacher for the young Wizards. I hope he sticks around, but if he doesnt want to, he is another player that can be flipped for a low 1st or at least a 2nd, or to move up in the upcoming draft. I look at this as trading unwanted assets for a 1st and at least a 2nd, or possibly a 1st (in Smart). This is an A+.

Overall a solid A grade for these moves by Dawkins.

A-
several young players worth a damn
Several picks and swaps
We got rid of as much dead weight as possible.
Solid.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

WallToWall wrote:Middleton has trade value. We could flip him for a low 1st or at least a 2nd, or use to move up in this upcoming draft.

No, we can't. Middleton does not have trade value. The guy has played in just 111 of his last 216 regular season games (and started in only 81 of them). He is owed $29M next year. Nobody is trading a FRP for that.

At best, he has value as an expiring contract if someone wants to unload a bad 2-year contract for Middleton's bad 1-year contract. But these days, those kinds of trades are fairly hard. GMs are better now, so not many teams are so capped out that they are willing to give up picks to save money. Maybe a team like Boston trades Jrue and picks for him, though we would have to take on 2 extra years of Jrue's salary.

DCZards wrote:

nate33 wrote:I was a little underwhelmed by the Kuzma deal. I don't have a lot of faith that the pick swap is going to pan out, so we mostly traded a SRP to land a disappointing 2024 FRP who couldn't get on the floor and some salary savings.

That’s unfair. The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

We gave up a fairly high SRP (probably low 40's). I'd say the "unknown" of a half-decent upcoming SRP is about equal in value to a recent late FRP who hasn't already demonstrated a spark of being special.

That's an interesting comparison, nate! But... cars are not individuals, each one is an example of a particular make/model. Potential doesn't enter into it -- there's no chance the Chevy you buy will "develop" into a Citroen SM.*

Last year we were hoping to get a R1 pick for Kuz. Say in the '24 draft. We just did.
Johnson comes with the same unknowns today that he'd have come with if we'd done the identical deal last Spring.


*

I got to drive one of these amazing vehicles for about 15 minutes one time long long ago!

nate33 wrote:

DCZards wrote:

nate33 wrote:I was a little underwhelmed by the Kuzma deal. I don't have a lot of faith that the pick swap is going to pan out, so we mostly traded a SRP to land a disappointing 2024 FRP who couldn't get on the floor and some salary savings.

That’s unfair. The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

We gave up a fairly high SRP (probably low 40's). I'd say the "unknown" of a half-decent upcoming SRP is about equal in value to a recent late FRP who hasn't already demonstrated a spark of being special.

The Zards FO evaluated and met with AJ Johnson during the pre-draft process. I’m pretty sure they liked what they heard and saw.

I’m taking their inside info and expertise over your approach of deciding what a 20 yr old is or is not before he’s even gotten an opportunity to show what he can do.

Process Over Production: Why AJ Johnson Could be the Biggest Steal of the 2024 NBA Draft[
AJ firmly falls into the potential bucket of the potential vs production debate, but his potential is eye popping
By TYLER METCALF
Jan. 26, 2024

What continues to captivate me with Johnson’s game, and why I continue to think he’s worthy of a first round pick, is his approach to the game. For starters, it would be incredibly easy for him to check out and go through the motions. This season surely isn’t what he expected, but he continues to play hard every night and do the little things that make the team better.

Johnson has a long way to go, but his process, approach, and work ethic resemble those of guys who tend to make it. Then there’s also the raw talent that is just begging to be unleashed.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/process-over-production-why-aj-johnson

DCZards wrote:

nate33 wrote:

DCZards wrote:
That’s unfair. The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

We gave up a fairly high SRP (probably low 40's). I'd say the "unknown" of a half-decent upcoming SRP is about equal in value to a recent late FRP who hasn't already demonstrated a spark of being special.

The Zards FO evaluated and met with AJ Johnson during the pre-draft process. I’m pretty sure they liked what they heard and saw.

I’m taking their inside info and expertise over your approach of deciding what a 20 yr old is or is not before he’s even gotten an opportunity to show what he can do.

I'm just saying, a late first round pick from a recent draft who hasn't earned playing time is roughly equal in value to the unknown of a future mid-second round pick that at least hasn't demonstrated that he doesn't deserve minutes right away.

That doesn't mean AJ can't pan out to be a good player. It means that AJ probably isn't any more likely to pan out to be a good player as a the #42 pick in the 2025 draft would be.

That might be true in a vacuum but go read the Bucks board. They are really upset about losing this guy.

nate33 wrote:At best, he has value as an expiring contract if someone wants to unload a bad 2-year contract for Middleton's bad 1-year contract. But these days, those kinds of trades are fairly hard.

I think it is a relic of the 2025 FA market. Teams may want to burn cap to dodge the 2nd apron, but nobody is trying to dump salary to chase big names. However if you look at the 2026 free agent class and the teams that are setting themselves up for it cap wise, you get the sense there will be a bit of an arms race for cap room. I do expect an expiring Khris Middleton to have real trade value, regardless of stats but especially if he is on the upswing on his ankle injury rehab.

Culture wise, you hope he has a positive effect on young players. As a key starter on a Championship team he has a better resume in this regard over Kuz. Kuz became a team captain by default, and has been cited for his Bubble trophy as if he were the lynchpin of that team and not just a bench guy carried by two HOFers. But he has been a net negative on this team on court, and for all that his locker room presence is as a good guy and all, it hasn't translated to good team play. He shows the exact opposite play style you would want our young cats to emulate. Bad shots, inefficient play, shoot until your shot starts falling. Or not at all. Shoot anyway.

Middleton at the least takes good shots in the flow of offense. Kuzma ruins offensive chemistry with his tone-deaf attempts to star. And this year was loafing on Defense. Not what you want from the team captain. You see the team's assist numbers jump with Kuz out of town. The young players are invigorated.

I count it as a plus trade on this alone. Elevating a C trade to a B- at least.

There's more to it though. Some think the pick swap may not convey. On it's surface it would require the Bucks and Blazers to be worse than us for it to matter. But that's not strictly how the ping pong balls work. As I have been banging on about in every other thread. (Sorry all). If we get a pick swap, we get all the balls of any lotto team. And there's a better than zero chance both teams miss the playoffs in '28.

The Bucks in particular are vulnerable. And if they go they are going down hard.

They have traded or swapped every pick from now to 2028. Little chance to refresh their talent through the draft unless they draft smarter than everyone. Or they scrap everything by trading their top talent. Their GM is catching hell from the fanbase, they are all in on wins right now. But for how long does that last. And if they fall short, does their GM get canned. Would a new GM not want to scrap and start fresh? Consider:

Dame is declining in the back half of his HOF career. He has a player option in 2026. Is Unrestricted in '27.
Giannis is still a beast, but his player option year comes in 2027, and is an UFA in '28. If you read his comments on the Luka trade he is proud that Euro players are representing the league now in a big market like LA under the spotlight. Think he wouldn't want to see something of that spotlight? Or play with Luka? The Lakers cap is squeaky clean after 2026.
They are still capped out and have never been a big free agent destination.

To this they add a franchise savior in: Kyle Kuzma. By trading away their 50/40/85 guy. For a guy who thinks he's a star. But who has consistently been at the bottom of the +/- ratings on teams where he has any real role.

If they fail over the next couple years, they will surely lose their GM and have a firesale on assets to recoup draft picks and restart the rebuild.

Come to the Blazers. Yes. They are on the upswing. They tanked the right way. They start with a base of talent. They have made smart trades and added defense to their star caliber potential. Hell Deni Avdija should be good for a few wins over the next few years. By 2028 he'll be primed to lead the team. Taking a leadership role and teaching new players the right way to play.

That said, the West has been tough. Teams like OKC and Houston are sure to be good for a long time. The Lakers always renew in an unfair way (see Giannis ^^^ above). Etc. For whatever reason the West has been consistently stronger than the East for a long while. The Blazers could be better than us by wins and overall record, and still miss the playoffs. If so we'd get their lotto combinations.

Will they fall off? Unknown. Aside from Deni and Grant they have nobody on their roster signed long term and have some hard decisions to make before then. Camara is an UFA in 2026. I expect they try to extend him before then, but he'd be smart to get option years in 26/27 since he will be worth far more on the open market. Clingan will surely be extended if he plays well, but as of right now only Deni and Jerami Grant are under contract as far as 2028. And they owe a 1st round pick to CHI sometime between now and 2028 depending in when it conveys. It's plausible that they fight hard to tread water in the West but still miss the playoffs.

Meanwhile, you never know what may happen in the East. If the Wiz' high draft picks this year and next net us a Franchise player, and the talent we have on board already matures by the end of their rookie deals, by '28 we may be in the playoffs, or at least the Play-ins. Nothing to lose at that point. With a Bucks implosion and the Blazers uncertain, we can play to win. If so any post season wins we get are extra sauce, while we still collect a lotto ticket from Portland missing a berth.

Last piece:

nate33 wrote:

DCZards wrote:The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

No idea how good AJJ might become. However Doc Rivers is not noted for developing rookies. He traded a highly productive SGA in his rookie year because he trusts veterans more than youth. He has stated that it is less the job of the HC to develop young players and more for the culture of the team to develop them. That's pretty much the opposite attitude of our front office. I expect Johnson has a better chance to develop here than he ever would have in Milwaukee. Or even Australia. Kid does have athleticism. Good length. Has shown an aggressive mindset. Scouts like his upside. He needs a jumper and 15 lbs of muscle. Our front office scouted him and liked him, made his acquisition a lynchpin of the deal. Drafted one player before the Kyshawn pick. Were they targeting him with that Gafford pick? If so they made sure to get him. Retroactively adding another 1st round pick to their 2024 haul.

To me I look at it like we traded out our short term try-out of young prospect PBJ for young prospect AJJ. And are betting on our ability to coach him up. Exactly what we should be doing with the back end of our bench: hold extended tryouts for talent. Ask our coaches and G league staff to train them up. See if they can grow into useful players. So far our G squad seems to be pretty good at bringing up guards. And we cycle in and out guys in that 15th spot in ways that grow them into assets.

So:

Kuz for Khris:
Out: One bad veteran on a longer contract who is frankly bad for our team.
In: One 3 time all star in an option year, auditioning for his final contract, recovering from injury. In a year when expiring contracts will be sought by teams bidding on a strong FA team.

That's a ++

SRP for Pick Swap:
Out: One of our three (3) 2nd round picks, in a year when we have two 1st rounders. And two 2nd rounders.
In: a 2nd best 2028 pick swap in a year when the Bucks are in a likely rebuild and the Blazers have exactly 2 players from their current team under contract.

I say +. Could be a home run swing. We trade the superfluous asset of a high 40's draft pick for the chance of a lotto pick. At worst we spend one 2nd round pick from a year when we have 4 other picks.

PBJ for AJJ
Out. One lightly used young first round prospect who did not pan out.
In. Kick the tires on another lightly used 1st round prospect who hadn't had much of a run yet.

That's a +. We ship a guy we knew we didn't need for a guy we think we like.

Overall grade for Milwaukee trade:
I'd call that a solid "B". With the chance that it turns to an "A" if we net a lotto pick from the swap. Or if AJJ becomes a useful rotation player. Unless you think PBJ is going to blow up to make us regret the swap.