GT #75: Heat @WIZ 7pm 3/31/2025

[BearlyBallin]

8 games left in the Wizard’s season & the Jazz are likely to lose all 7 of their remaining games. Wizards need a loss to keep pace with the Jazz.

The Wizards tank survived a 14 point 4th quarter from AJ & lost by 3 at home to the Nets.

Heat have won their last 4 games. Their last win over Philly was by 23 points.

Wizards need a Heat victory.

[BearlyBallin]

Jazz @Hornets are tonight as well.

A tank battle royal but the Jazz could make a mistake and win.

[dobrojim]

UTA 16-59
WSH 16-58
CHA 18-55
NOP 20-54

I forget who it was but someone posted that if we (us and UTA) both lose
out, the number one position would go to us.
Note that our odds of a top 4 would be the same but in the event
that neither team is selected in the lottery (top 4), we win the tiebreaker
and would pick before them based on head to head and point dif in those games.
That said, Tankathon (yeah I know) says a random drawing determines the
order for teams with identical records.

In any case, we could end up tied with UTA and also CHA isn't that far out of the picture.
According to my understanding, our most likely pick is 5th or 6th (neither UTA nor us 'win'
a top 4 slot). If we lose out on a top 4, we cannot fall below 6th.

[nate33]

UTA 16-59
WSH 16-58
CHA 18-55
NOP 20-54

I forget who it was but someone posted that if we (us and UTA) both lose
out, the number one position would go to us.
Note that our odds of a top 4 would be the same but in the event
that neither team is selected in the lottery (top 4), we win the tiebreaker
and would pick before them based on head to head and point dif in those games.
That said, Tankathon (yeah I know) says a random drawing determines the
order for teams with identical records.

In any case, we could end up tied with UTA and also CHA isn't that far out of the picture.
According to my understanding, our most likely pick is 5th or 6th (neither UTA nor us 'win'
a top 4 slot). If we lose out on a top 4, we cannot fall below 6th.

My daily reminder not to worry too much about the distinction between worst, second-worst and third-worst. They all give us the exact same odds at Flagg, Harper, Bailey and whomever you like best at #4 (probably Edgecombe).

If we fall to second-worst, our pick situation is exactly the same as the team with the worst record in 80% of the scenarios. In that final 20% scenario, we are only talking about a fall of one place from #5 to #6, and historically speaking, the lottery is much more of a crapshoot outside of the top 4 anyhow.

Since the revamped lottery odds 7 years ago, the worst-place finish team has never gotten the #1 pick.

[dobrojim]

I 'worry' because the more likely outcome is
we are not selected in the top 4. But I don't
lose sleep over it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

UTA 16-59
WSH 16-58
CHA 18-55
NOP 20-54

I forget who it was but someone posted that if we (us and UTA) both lose
out, the number one position would go to us.
Note that our odds of a top 4 would be the same but in the event
that neither team is selected in the lottery (top 4), we win the tiebreaker
and would pick before them based on head to head and point dif in those games.
That said, Tankathon (yeah I know) says a random drawing determines the
order for teams with identical records.

In any case, we could end up tied with UTA and also CHA isn't that far out of the picture.
According to my understanding, our most likely pick is 5th or 6th (neither UTA nor us 'win'
a top 4 slot). If we lose out on a top 4, we cannot fall below 6th.

My daily reminder not to worry too much about the distinction between worst, second-worst and third-worst. They all give us the exact same odds at Flagg, Harper, Bailey and whomever you like best at #4 (probably Edgecombe).

If we fall to second-worst, our pick situation is exactly the same as the team with the worst record in 80% of the scenarios. In that final 20% scenario, we are only talking about a fall of one place from #5 to #6, and historically speaking, the lottery is much more of a crapshoot outside of the top 4 anyhow.

Since the revamped lottery odds 7 years ago, the worst-place finish team has never gotten the #1 pick.

The NCAA Final Four has not had all four # 1 seeds since 2008.

This could be the season that the NBA worst drafts first.

[BearlyBallin]

Read on Twitter

Colby Jones is with the Go Go ??

[AFM]

Yeah he was playing a little too well. Send that fella to China.

[Zonkerbl]

Who is this Martin guy? He's terrible

[AFM]

Johnson doesn't have a muscle on his frame but he got a 45" vertical

[AFM]

Good god, this is ugly.

[AFM]

Poole just broke the franchise record for made 3's in a season. Official Wizards legend, retire his jersey!!!

[AFM]

Poole is playing his ass off. On D as well.

[dobrojim]

Terrible 1st half for Sarr.
Bam just owns him. And no, I'm not
rooting for a W.

[penbeast0]

With all due respect, at this point in his career, it seems every big we face owns Sarr (and Vucevic most likely too). He's a shotblocker but not competent as a man defender yet. Fortunately, we can still hope that as young as he is, he will learn.

[dobrojim]

Pretty much every MIA player owns their matchup
except against Poole.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

With all due respect, at this point in his career, it seems every big we face owns Sarr (and Vucevic most likely too). He's a shotblocker but not competent as a man defender yet. Fortunately, we can still hope that as young as he is, he will learn.

Sarr is young Javale McGee with a three-point shot and good handles.

[closg00]

Tyler Hero is definitely playing up to his contract, proving doubters wrong.

Bam is a beast, I hope that is what Alex transforms into in a few years

[penbeast0]

With all due respect, at this point in his career, it seems every big we face owns Sarr (and Vucevic most likely too). He's a shotblocker but not competent as a man defender yet. Fortunately, we can still hope that as young as he is, he will learn.

Sarr is young Javale McGee with a three-point shot and good handles.

I'm more hoping for young JJJ or Evan Mobley, but right now it's just that, hope.

[Tyrone Messby]

Most of the teams we have left have something still to play for which is good. Unfortunately the Jazz schedule looks pretty much the same. I think the Sixers game is the only possible win for us left on the schedule. Really need the Jazz to win 2 more.