Dangerous optimism thread.

[doclinkin]

As Wiz fans many of us are preconditioned to distrust hope. The team has disappointed so many times that the inevitability of misery has become a hashtag. Looking for clouds in any sunny sky so that somehow even after landing the #1 overall pick in a strong draft the loudest strain of conversation we here is anxiety that the team might pay the HOF big we traded for on the cheap.

I’m curious though. If somehow all goes right, what’s the most optimistic you can let yourself be about this team?

I’m curious what’s the best case scenario you can plausibly project based on the current roster. And any supporting reasons why.

[badinage]

I like this, doc. Much needed.

Being a level-headed realist when it comes to a basketball team — a basketball team — is pretty preposterous. “I refuse to budge from the cold, hard numbers! I won’t yield to passion!”

Is your question about this coming season? If so, I simply want to see a team that fights, that plays at both ends, that has an identity, and that looks like it can make a run the following season.

In general: I can believe in a future in which this is a team that will soon embark on a long and glorious run (going deep into the playoffs, then conference titles, then titles — at least one and probably two).

And if they don’t — if they’re just a version of Utah with Mitchell and Gobert, or Houston with Harden and Paul and Capela … well, it’s a damn sight better than what we’ve had around here since the late 70s … AND I’ll be deeply, woundingly disappointed. ; )

[doclinkin]

[*]What’s the best case for Trae? Could he actually earn that contract? What if Trae Young entering his prime actually does play the best ball of his career with the Wizards?

Small sample size of course. But. Pretend for a minute that the Trae we see this year is the same as we got a glimpse of last year. Not just in DC but in total. That version of Trae posted the lowest overall usage percentage of his career, but the most efficient scoring. 2nd highest assist rate. 3rd highest FT/36 of his career despite not dominating the ball. Best Ortg and TS% of his career despite playing on a tanking team. Plus playing injured in Atlanta.

The best line up he played with here fielded:
Trae
Tre
Bilal
Sarr
and Leaky Black.

That line up was +18 in limited minutes, even while losing the rebounding battle. Now plug the Leak with a rested and rehabbed Anthony Davis.

Last year combined over two teams Trae put up per 36 numbers of 25/11a/1.2s —against 3.7 TOs, lowest in his career. Again, this with his lowest overall usage.

How much does that assist number jump if he’s feeding AD instead of Black? He’s regularly topped the league in assist numbers. Adding a HOF big to finish his play instead of undersized bigs like Okongwu or Clint, it’s not unreasonable to forecast an added 2-3 until you realize that’d mean 14 dimes a game.

This not even accounting for him feeding easy buckets to the hyper talent AJ. Absurd to imagine Trae racking even occasional games of 15 assists. But to average over 12 dimes a game he’ll have to occasionally put up a 20-piece in that category.

Sounds improbable. Until you consider that our back up plan at PG is five other guys all at once. Trae will get the reps. Plus he’s done it 4 times in his career, even as recently as January 2025. When the top 2 other FG attempts that night were put up by Zacky Risacher (6/14) and Garrison Matthews (4/13). Next to Dyson Daniels and Capela.

A player who can command the ball like that would be the entire defensive scouting report. Except. He will be feeding the HOFer AD backed up by DeAndre Ayton (last seen scoring 82% in the paint). And surrounded by shooters like George (38%+ from 3), and 40% snipers Tre & Bub. Wide open.

At 25/12 on good efficiency Trae is earning his money.
If his example and swagger help our young core develop, he’s giving added value into the future.

Will Riley has said how eager he is to xerox everything Trae shows him. We’ve seen Kyshawn in summer runs with him showing off Trae moves.

How many wins does peak Trae Young add to our total?

[payitforward]

...What if Trae Young entering his prime actually does play the best ball of his career with the Wizards? ...How many wins does peak Trae Young add to our total?

If Trae plays a 2K+ minute season at the level he posted last year in his 104 Wizards minutes -- complete w/ 72.3% TS% & almost 12 assists per 40 minutes! -- he'll be one of the best point guards in the history of the league! Why not?

But, that's nothing! What if Anthony Davis gives us a 2K minute season at the level of only 3 years ago? &, don't forget, we should expect another big jump from Alex Sarr. Plus -- given his performance in the last 1/3 of '25-26 -- there's every reason to believe that Will Riley will have an outstanding 2d year, a breakout year!

For that matter, I feel optimistic that both Kyshawn George & Bub Carrington (who only turned 21 a couple of weeks ago!) will take big jumps in their 3d years. & I certainly expect significant improvement from Tre Johnson as well!

Who have I left out...? Oh yeah -- we've got this interesting rookie too. #1 pick in the draft! I imagine we all see AJ Dybantsa competing for RoY, right?

Seems clear to me. We have a shot -- we should contend for a title this season!

Right? Right!!!

[Tyrone Messby]

Expecting a title at least (maybe 2!)with AJ leading the way over the next decade. Think we jump to contender status and a powerhouse by 2028. Could see us legitimately winning 50 for the first time in my lifetime this season if we remain relatively healthy.

Oh and I think AJ may end up being an ELITE defender as well. Him making comments about wanting to guard Luka has me thinking his being lazy on defense at BYU was truth. You don’t call out one of the best players in the game like that unless you intend to back it up and believe in your ability.

I’m just stoked to see how this all plays out. We finally committed to the tank and we were rewarded with AJ. LFGO!!

Just please don’t give AD in extension cause that will destroy all the belief I have right now

[payitforward]

Awww come on...! This is the dangerous optimism thread! In this thread, we ask, "what if...?"

What if AD returns to the level of his 1440 minutes for the Lakers only 2 years ago, but he manages to give us, say, 1900 minutes?
What if Trae plays at (or even near!) the level he displayed in a few games for us last year?
What if AJ plays at a dangerously high ROY level?
What if Will's SL play is an advance hint of a really big jump?
What if Alex, Ky, Bub, & Tre all take nice jumps?
What if JC continues to round into the elite role player he's shown himself to be so far?
What if Bilal starts to realize some high percentage of his obviously elite upside?

Yeah! What if all that stuff, huh?

[nate33]

There are plenty of reasons for wild optimism, but I keep reminding myself that nearly every other team in the league is just as optimistic about their team. There is a lot of talent in this league and just because our talent is getting better doesn't mean other players aren't also getting better.

Consider a team like the Bulls, whom many assume will be the 3rd worst team in the East. Their starting lineup is:

PG Giddey
SG Powell
SF Buzelis
PF C.Wilson
C Claxton
And Tre Jones and Jalen Smith off the bench.

Think about the narrative they can construct around that team:
- Giddey almost averaged a triple double last year (17.0, 9.1 and 8.3) and he is only 23
- Norman Powell was literally an All-Star last year.
- Buzelis was statistically a bit better than Kyshawn George last year and he is a year younger.
- Wilson was just as impressive as AJ in Summer League
- Claxton is a solid starting center very similar to Sarr

As much as I want to believe the Wizards will be a top 6 team in the East, it's tough to square that circle when I'm not even sure if they are head-and-shoulders above the 13th team in the East.

[doclinkin]

As much as I want to believe the Wizards will be a top 6 team in the East, it's tough to square that circle when I'm not even sure if they are head-and-shoulders above the 13th team in the East.

Off topic! Reporting this to the mods.

Go ahead try it. What’s the most optimistic you can allow yourself to be, back it up with evidence. You can do it! Doesn’t even have to be this year if all you’ve got is cautious skepticism. That’s a reasonable position. But not the point of the exercise. Think about it, if you allow yourself a little hope, what’s the best case scenario you can envision? You said top 6? If so how.

[nate33]

As much as I want to believe the Wizards will be a top 6 team in the East, it's tough to square that circle when I'm not even sure if they are head-and-shoulders above the 13th team in the East.

Off topic! Reporting this to the mods.

Go ahead try it. What’s the most optimistic you can allow yourself to be, back it up with evidence. You can do it! Doesn’t even have to be this year if all you’ve got is cautious skepticism. That’s a reasonable position. But not the point of the exercise. Think about it, if you allow yourself a little hope, what’s the best case scenario you can envision? You said top 6? If so how.

The best case scenario is that this team is WAY better defensively then they have shown so far because the coaching staff has deliberately avoided applying catered defensive schemes to take away the opposition's strength in favor of generalized individual defensive development.

It doesn't make any sense at all that the Wizards were last in the league defensively when they have what appears to be a heaping ton of individual defensive talent in guys like Sarr, Bilal, Kyshawn and Champagnie, plus good positional size and length from Bub, Riley and Tre.

Take that individual defensive talent, actually institute schemes designed to thwart what the opposition wants to do, and then add in an all-time great defender in AD, a solid defender and rebounder in Ayton, plus the freakish size and athleticism of AJ, and the team could suddenly be as good defensively as the Detroit Pistons, at least when Trae is off the floor. Think about. As individual defenders: Bilal=Thompson, Sarr>Stewart, AD>Duren, Kyshawn=Holland, AJ=Cade, Tre and Bub are at least equal to Robinson and Huerter.

If this team is suddenly a top 5 defensive team with Trae off the floor, and roughly 13th or so with him on; and Trae can spearhead an offensive system that is roughly 15th best in the league, that should be a 45 win team and a 6th seed in the East.

[dobrojim]

...What if Trae Young entering his prime actually does play the best ball of his career with the Wizards? ...How many wins does peak Trae Young add to our total?

If Trae plays a 2K+ minute season at the level he posted last year in his 104 Wizards minutes -- complete w/ 72.3% TS% & almost 12 assists per 40 minutes! -- he'll be one of the best point guards in the history of the league! Why not?

But, that's nothing! What if Anthony Davis gives us a 2K minute season at the level of only 3 years ago? &, don't forget, we should expect another big jump from Alex Sarr. Plus -- given his performance in the last 1/3 of '25-26 -- there's every reason to believe that Will Riley will have an outstanding 2d year, a breakout year!

For that matter, I feel optimistic that both Kyshawn George & Bub Carrington (who only turned 21 a couple of weeks ago!) will take big jumps in their 3d years. & I certainly expect significant improvement from Tre Johnson as well!

Who have I left out...? Oh yeah -- we've got this interesting rookie too. #1 pick in the draft! I imagine we all see AJ Dybantsa competing for RoY, right?

Seems clear to me. We have a shot -- we should contend for a title this season!

Right? Right!!!

1st - I could often be described as the eternal optimist (I did buy myself a season tix).

My counter argument to that looking fwd to this year, you don't have to make wildly implausible guesses about the
team we are looking at. The one anchor is we're coming off a 17 win season. But with a mildly avg improvement by
our kids, a reasonable start to a potential HoF career by AJ, and avg health by the majority of our key vet guys (AD and Trae)
and it's not that unreasonable to think along with Kendrick Perkins who projected us as high as 5th. Again, assuming we stay
healthy, it's also not unreasonable that the team will be more cohesive. The biggest wildcard to me is how good our
defense could ultimately be. Were the causes of our horrible-ness last year the players or a collection of things that
will not be evident this year?

Or will Murphy prevail - If things look to be going well, you are probably overlooking something.

[doclinkin]

As much as I want to believe the Wizards will be a top 6 team in the East, it's tough to square that circle when I'm not even sure if they are head-and-shoulders above the 13th team in the East.

Off topic! Reporting this to the mods.

Go ahead try it. What’s the most optimistic you can allow yourself to be, back it up with evidence. You can do it! Doesn’t even have to be this year if all you’ve got is cautious skepticism. That’s a reasonable position. But not the point of the exercise. Think about it, if you allow yourself a little hope, what’s the best case scenario you can envision? You said top 6? If so how.

The best case scenario is that this team is WAY better defensively then they have shown so far because the coaching staff has deliberately avoided applying catered defensive schemes to take away the opposition's strength in favor of generalized individual defensive development.

It doesn't make any sense at all that the Wizards were last in the league defensively when they have what appears to be a heaping ton of individual defensive talent in guys like Sarr, Bilal, Kyshawn and Champagnie, plus good positional size and length from Bub, Riley and Tre.

Take that individual defensive talent, actually institute schemes designed to thwart what the opposition wants to do, and then add in an all-time great defender in AD, a solid defender and rebounder in Ayton, plus the freakish size and athleticism of AJ, and the team could suddenly be as good defensively as the Detroit Pistons, at least when Trae is off the floor. Think about. As individual defenders: Bilal=Thompson, Sarr>Stewart, AD>Duren, Kyshawn=Holland, AJ=Cade, Tre and Bub are at least equal to Robinson and Huerter.

If this team is suddenly a top 5 defensive team with Trae off the floor, and roughly 13th or so with him on; and Trae can spearhead an offensive system that is roughly 15th best in the league, that should be a 45 win team and a 6th seed in the East.

Highly likely we take a leap in defense.

Defensive consultant Steve Clifford is known for triggering sharp turnaround on D. His schemes are not overly innovative, they’re more about demanding adherence to fundamentals. Stance. Footwork. Active hands. Defending from the inside out.

He emphasizes rim protection above all. Footwork for aggressive D while avoiding fouls. Rebounding. Switching everything outside if you have the personnel to do it. His belief is if you protect the rim and rebound everything else falls in place. He likes a mobile 4 to supplement the power 5.

That’s ideal for this team. We tanked structurally by building without a solid center core. No rebounding, and primarily weakside rim protection, not a standup guy underneath. Now we add AD in the middle whether he likes it or not.

Sarr is remarkable for his ability to defend all over the court, often on the same play, but you can’t block every breakdown. If you can deter penetration in the first place it’s far easier to defend the outside. No need to scramble.

Aside from Trae we have the ability to switch everything. In fact with the personnel we have you could be switched from a good defender to a better one. Try to shake Bilal and end up with Sarr walling you off.

Last year we often defended well for 20+ seconds. Then it all fell apart when the shot missed but we couldn’t control the boards. We need a long term answer there, but in the short term we have the perfect player in a well rested and healthy AD who is auditioning for a role with every playoff team in the league. AD in limited minutes can both play with force and rest.

Top 5 defense? Possibly. But top 10 with a motivated AD is both realistically within reach and a remarkable turnaround. Trae will likely play 30+ minutes when he can, so we may have to scramble more often than we ought to. But the foundation of good D exists at every position. With overlapping depth at a few spots when everyone is healthy.

[DCZards]

My optimism for next season is mostly around the breakout seasons I'm projecting for Tre J. and Bilal. If the two of them begin to rise to what I see as their potential it will be the icing on the cake baked by Trae, AD, AJ, Ky and Sarr.

I agree with you, doc, that a lot of the Zards success will be connected to Trae and his ability/willingness to have a lower usage yet, at the same time, play an outsized role as an oncourt leader. I think Trae is actually looking forward to being that seasoned vet fueling the development of youngins like AJ, Ky, Bilal, Will, Tre & Bub.

[closg00]

My optimism for next season is mostly around the breakout seasons I'm projecting for Tre J. and Bilal. If the two of them begin to rise to what I see as their potential it will be the icing on the cake baked by Trae, AD, AJ, Ky and Sarr.

I agree with you, doc, that a lot of the Zards success will be connected to Trae and his ability/willingness to have a lower usage yet, at the same time, play an outsized role as an oncourt leader. I think Trae is actually looking forward to being that seasoned vet fueling the development of youngins like AJ, Ky, Bilal, Will, Tre & Bub.

We share the same take, everything is riding on Tre and Bilal having breakout years, and Keefe putting it all together. The East is a Beast.

[payitforward]

...everything is riding on Tre and Bilal having breakout years....

I don't understand this at all. What is this "everything" that rides on these two guys in particular?

I'd put AJ, Sarr, Ky, & Will before Tre and/or Bilal. & I'd put a lot on AD's ability to play a lot of minutes in a lot of games.

[doclinkin]

...everything is riding on Tre and Bilal having breakout years....

I don't understand this at all. What is this "everything" that rides on these two guys in particular?

I'd put AJ, Sarr, Ky, & Will

This is interesting to me. A surprising name in this sequence. Curious about the reasoning.

Not that I disagree. I actually think Will may end up our best player. At least until AJs skill catches up with his talent. He seems like next in line to take over for Trae if he is able to study the floor general game and imprint it on his 6’10” frame. Thats an unusual weapon. Josh Giddey, Shawn Livingston, only with an ability to get in the paint as well as pass over defenders.

I don’t expect that to happen this year though. A year or two as an understudy to Trae will help him immensely. He’ll need to study it then put it in practice. I like what I see him working on in the offseason though. Physicality and aggressive defense. With his size if he can mimic some of Traes skillset but add more defense he’s a uniquely interesting player.

I do see the argument for Bilal and Tre. Bilal is our 1a on ball defender. Next to Trae you need a guy who can stymie the opposing top scorer. Make it tough for them to get to the switch. Bilal starts for us any time he’s healthy. All he needs is a decent corner 3 and a willingness to attack the hoop to be useful out there. I expect Young helps with both. Feeding him and encouraging him not to hesitate.

As for Tr3, the Hawks line up +/- stats show Trae Young does best next to a ranged gunner who was a hair trigger and no conscience. Bogdanovic didn’t even have to shoot well from outside. Just willingly. He was Young’s best 2-man line up partner.

Garrison Matthews. Gallinari. Put a high volume 3pt shooter next to Trae and his offensive efficiency jumps.

TJ3 likewise showed exciting numbers on court with Young. In too little time of course. I don’t like the too small line up as a starter. But to get us back into games i can see a flamethrower line where we run small ball in short term bursts. The synergy between these two could be fun. If TJ3 adds muscle over time then maybe he’s playable with Young. Until then I think he’s part of a bench mob that can surprise opposing teams and go on runs while the starters are resting.

[gesa2]

Really good defensive teams are most often the result of a year or more of working in the same system perfecting coverages and reacting as a team, with everyone on a string. The wide eyed optimistic version of us has some combo of AD playing a lot and Clifford helping drill the fundamentals enough that we deliver an above average D this year. Compared to last year that’s a miraculous change. Put that with everyone finding a role on offense they are actually qualified for led by Trae as organizer, and I can see us winning 45-46 games.

[closg00]

...everything is riding on Tre and Bilal having breakout years....

I don't understand this at all. What is this "everything" that rides on these two guys in particular?

I'd put AJ, Sarr, Ky, & Will before Tre and/or Bilal. & I'd put a lot on AD's ability to play a lot of minutes in a lot of games.

I agree with this:

My optimism for next season is mostly around the breakout seasons I'm projecting for Tre J. and Bilal. If the two of them begin to rise to what I see as their potential it will be the icing on the cake baked by Trae, AD, AJ, Ky and Sarr.
.

Just delete the word everything because it is not literally true.

[payitforward]

Obviously, the better Tre & Bilal play, the better a team we will be. But that would be true for any pair of names on the roster: you can only be as good as your players' performances.

A big jump from Tre would be particularly welcome, of course, as he did not have a very impressive rookie year (not a criticism, just a fact).

Of course, what we'd like to see is a bunch of jumps -- for each of Bilal, Sarr, Bub, Ky, Tre, Will -- & even Jamir (though he was so good, given his draft spot & age, that he'll be a solid player for many years even at his level from last year). I guess we could add Vukcevic to the list, although I gave up on him a while back....

A lot of talent, that's for sure! Add AD & Trae. Add a dynamo like AJ. Seems like it ought to be an exciting season!!

[Zonkerbl]

As much as I want to believe the Wizards will be a top 6 team in the East, it's tough to square that circle when I'm not even sure if they are head-and-shoulders above the 13th team in the East.

Off topic! Reporting this to the mods.

Go ahead try it. What’s the most optimistic you can allow yourself to be, back it up with evidence. You can do it! Doesn’t even have to be this year if all you’ve got is cautious skepticism. That’s a reasonable position. But not the point of the exercise. Think about it, if you allow yourself a little hope, what’s the best case scenario you can envision? You said top 6? If so how.

The best case scenario is that this team is WAY better defensively then they have shown so far because the coaching staff has deliberately avoided applying catered defensive schemes to take away the opposition's strength in favor of generalized individual defensive development.

It doesn't make any sense at all that the Wizards were last in the league defensively when they have what appears to be a heaping ton of individual defensive talent in guys like Sarr, Bilal, Kyshawn and Champagnie, plus good positional size and length from Bub, Riley and Tre.

Take that individual defensive talent, actually institute schemes designed to thwart what the opposition wants to do, and then add in an all-time great defender in AD, a solid defender and rebounder in Ayton, plus the freakish size and athleticism of AJ, and the team could suddenly be as good defensively as the Detroit Pistons, at least when Trae is off the floor. Think about. As individual defenders: Bilal=Thompson, Sarr>Stewart, AD>Duren, Kyshawn=Holland, AJ=Cade, Tre and Bub are at least equal to Robinson and Huerter.

If this team is suddenly a top 5 defensive team with Trae off the floor, and roughly 13th or so with him on; and Trae can spearhead an offensive system that is roughly 15th best in the league, that should be a 45 win team and a 6th seed in the East.

What the opposition wants to do is crash the offensive boards because the wizards were turrible at defensive rebounding. The most optimistic you can be about this team's defense is that AD has a chip on his shoulder to prove he's healthy and worthy of the max and he collects 12 rebounds per game, most of them defensive rebounds, and Sarr's ability to generate misses actually results in stops. I think if AD is healthy and playing like he can when he's healthy this is easily a top 6 team in the east. Hopefully good enough that AD stops complaining about being here. I hear you about being 13th in defense with Trae on the floor, that sounds believable.

[pancakes3]

Allowing myself to be wildly optimistic, the starting 5 is great and all but we're a very deep team now too. Boston's recent success is largely due to their neverending bench so much so that despite losing Tatum last year, they still won 54 games.

Bub/Trae/Wiley/Champagne/Ayton is basically our starting lineup last year. And while bad, that's putting a starting lineup as our second unit - full 1-5 coverage.

Those guys can score in a hurry. They can keep a lead. They can make up ground against weaker second units. They can allow Trae/AD to rack up DNPs and save their legs. They allow iron to sharpen iron in practice. They can expose matchup weaknesses.

Guys, it's a good team. Allow yourself to believe.