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Official Standings Watch/Team Comparisons Thread 2007/08

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Official Standings Watch/Team Comparisons Thread 2007/08

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:00 pm
by nate33
The Wizards remain in 4th place in the East with a tenuous lead over Toronto, Cleveland, Jersey and Atlanta. We are 4.5 games ahead of the 9th place seed though. We are only 1.5 games behind Orlando for the lead in the Southeast and we're tied with them in the loss column.

The two Celtics games have improved our strength of schedule ranking. Prior to the games, we had played the easiest schedule in the league. We have now played the 25th hardest schedule in the league. Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Denver and San Antonio have played easier schedules than us.

Toronto has played the 3rd-hardest schedule in the league so the computer rankings actually place them ahead of us. According to Sagarin's system, we are the 15th best team in the league. Toronto is 14th. We're substantially better than Cleveland, Jersey and Atlanta.

After two grueling games against the Celtics, our offensive ranking has fallen to 11th (based on points per possession). Our defense has improved to 15th. We have the 11th-best point differential in the league.

We rank 18th in eFG%
We rank 3rd in FT%
We rank 16th in eFG% allowed.
We rank 23rd in FT% allowed.
We rank 18th FTA's
We rank 8th in FTA's allowed (allow fewer attempts than most teams)
We rank 8th in rebound percentage

When I get a chance, I'll look at how we have fared since the first 5 games.

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:25 pm
by Wiz99
This is a great roundup of all the key stats. Thanks, Nate!

Interesting to see the numbers tell the story for this year: our offense is somewhat less potent than last year (to be expected w/o Gil) but the defense has improved from near league worst to middling (not expected, but hoped for by many before the season).

Also interesting to see some things that look just like flukes. That we are 23rd in FT% allowed. That's just getting lucky, and we benefit from it. Or I wonder if that varies closely with strength of schedule. Do crappy opponents tend to shoot worse from the line? Probably.

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:30 pm
by ZonkertheBrainless
If your perimeter defense sucks and you allow a lot of penetration, your FT% allowed will suck because high percentage shooting guards will go to the line a lot. If you are only fouling post players then your FT% allowed will be low.

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:32 pm
by WickedWizard
Great stats!

I had no idea we had played such an easy schedule so far. Looks like things are falling in place for us without Arenas.

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:56 pm
by nate33
Wiz99 wrote:Also interesting to see some things that look just like flukes. That we are 23rd in FT% allowed. That's just getting lucky, and we benefit from it.

It's kind of hard to follow when dealing with defensive stats. Ranking 23rd in FT% allowed is unlucky. Only 7 teams permit the opponents to shoot better from the free throw line.

ZonkertheBrainless wrote:If your perimeter defense sucks and you allow a lot of penetration, your FT% allowed will suck because high percentage shooting guards will go to the line a lot. If you are only fouling post players then your FT% allowed will be low.

That's a plausible theory, but I actually have a more optimistic viewpoint. I think that our interior defense, particularly Haywood, is real good at defending the paint without commiting fouls. (After all, we rank 8th in FTA allowed.) And as a team, we are very good at post defense. As a result, a higher proportion of our fouls committed are committed on guards who shoot better FT%

It's not that we hack guards more, per se. It's that he hack bigs less.

Re: Official Standings Watch/Team Comparisons Thread 2007/08

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:08 pm
by bulletproof_32
nate33 wrote: The two Celtics games have improved our strength of schedule ranking. Prior to the games, we had played the easiest schedule in the league. We have now played the 25th hardest schedule in the league. Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Denver and San Antonio have played easier schedules than us.


Just curious on how SOS is determined/ defined. Is it strictly based on opponent

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:43 pm
by WizStorm
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that our back to back with Knicks are going to hurt our SOS.

Re: Official Standings Watch/Team Comparisons Thread 2007/08

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:58 pm
by nate33
bulletproof_32 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Just curious on how SOS is determined/ defined. Is it strictly based on opponent

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:59 pm
by Chocolate City Jordanaire
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... gs/07/30/1

nate, I hadn't read your post and started a thread on the FT shooting. This link lists the rankings you posted and your post leads to where I wanted to go.

Right now, the Wizards are around the 10-12 ranking in the league. Offense, defense, and efficiency all point to somewhere around #11.

However, if you factor in the first 5 games and the 5 or 6 Daniels missed, I think the Wizards would have 2-3 more wins.

This team is probably one of the top 8 teams.

Boston and Detroit are the only east team I'd say are clearly better than Washington right now. I'd rank Toronto better because their shooting being superior but Washington's getting better with Daniels healthy.

San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix (but they're going to drop), Portland, Dallas (also fading a bit) are teams in the West that rank higher IMO.

That's really encouraging.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:07 pm
by nate33
Don't look now but the Wizards have somehow managed to win 7 of their last 10 games and are back at .500. Toronto is only 2 games ahead of us and Cleveland is just 4 games in front. Orlando is well out of reach though. Philly is just 1.5 games behind us in the race to avoid the 7th seed and Detroit.

Our schedule has been kind. We have played the 28th hardest schedule in the league. Cleveland has played the 16th hardest schedule, Toronto the 20th, and Philly the 24th.

Our league rankings in offense and defense are regressing back to the norm. When I started this thread on January 15th, our offense was ranked 11th and our defense was a surprising 15th. Now, our offensive ranking remains a respectable 13th, but our defensive ranking has plummeted to 22nd. Evidently, the loss of Butler has impacted the defense more so than the offense. The fact that Stevenson and Daniels are both playing on one leg hasn't helped either.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:34 pm
by mhd
Lets go for fourth place and homecourt!

1) Clippers (W)
2) Hawks (W)
3) @ Orlando (L)
4) @ Miami (W)
5) Detroit (L)
6) @ Portland (W)
7) @ Sonics (B2B) (W)
8) @ Kings (W)
9) @ Lakers (L)
10) @ Jazz (B2B) (L)
11) Bucks (W)
12) Heat (W)
13) @ Bulls (B2B) (W)
14) Celtics (L, could be a win, but will want revenge)
15) @ Pistons (W, should be resting)
16) 76ers (B2B) (W, tough game, homecourt makes the difference)
17) Pacers (W)
18) @ Magic (W, could be resting)

13-5 is the best case scenerio.

The only for sure losses are Lakers and Jazz, though this team could pull a miracle and split those. The gimme games are Bucks, Clippers, Miami (x2), Pacers (tanking), and Sonics for a total of 6. We should win Kings, Philly (that will be tough, but it is on our court), Magic (last game, could be resting starters), Bulls (tanking), and Hawks for 5. The toss ups are Portland, @ Magic, Pistons at home, and Celtics for 4. I could see as going 11-7 the rest of the year, but hopefully we can get that fourth spot.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:43 pm
by dobrojim
nate33 wrote:Don't look now but the Wizards have somehow managed to win 7 of their last 10 games and are back at .500. Toronto is only 2 games ahead of us and Cleveland is just 4 games in front. Orlando is well out of reach though. Philly is just 1.5 games behind us in the race to avoid the 7th seed and Detroit.

Our schedule has been kind. We have played the 28th hardest schedule in the league. Cleveland has played the 16th hardest schedule, Toronto the 20th, and Philly the 24th.


Maybe I'm underestimating the difficulty of our remaining schedule
relative to PHL, but their's seems worse than ours. We have 3 very
unlikely to win road games vs WC teams (UT, LAL and POR which
is clearly the easiest of those 3) We also play in DET in ORL 2x, BOS here.
Those are definitely iffy games, but PHL's schedule looks tough
as well. Shouldn't there be a reciprocal relationship between how
easy you've had it vs how easy your remaining schedule is?

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:47 pm
by nate33
mhd wrote:Lets go for fourth place and homecourt!

1) Clippers
2) Hawks
3) @ Orlando
4) @ Miami
5) Detroit
6) @ Portland
7) @ Sonics (B2B)
8) @ Kings
9) @ Lakers
10) @ Jazz (B2B)
11) Bucks
12) Heat
13) @ Bulls (B2B)
14) Celtics
15) @ Pistons
16) 76ers (B2B)
17) Pacers
18) @ Magic

The only for sure losses are Lakers and Jazz, though this team could pull a miracle and split those. The gimme games are Bucks, Clippers, Miami (x2), Pacers (tanking), and Sonics for a total of 6. We should win Kings, Philly (that will be tough, but it is on our court), Magic (last game, could be resting starters), Bulls (tanking), and Hawks for 5. The toss ups are Portland, @ Magic, Pistons at home, and Celtics for 4. I could see as going 11-6 the rest of the year, but hopefully we can get that fourth spot.

Nice breakdown mhd.

It's interesting to see how important strength of schedule really is to a team. Previously, I figured that it all evens out in the end. All the East teams play roughly a similar schedule, as do the West teams. But now I see that it's a significant advantage to play the easier schedule earlier in the season, with the tough games down the stretch. If you can play a lot of really good teams at the very end of the season when they've already sealed their playoff position, they become easy games too.

If the Celtics and Pistons have already determined thier playoff seedings by the last 5 games or so, we could potentially win the last 8 consecutive games. The only opponent in that stretch with any motivation is Philly. I suppose Chicago might still have a shot at the 8th seed.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:48 pm
by dobrojim
The Pistons may not be resting at all from here on out.
Even if their EC status is set, they'll still want to finish with
a better record than all the WC teams so as to have home
court in the finals.

ORL has been equally good at home vs away. We should've
beat them the first time (woulda, coulda shoulda) but we'll
be looking for revenge after the spanking they delivered last
week.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:51 pm
by dobrojim
CHI ought to be highly motivated

they're only a half game out right now

see my post above re the Pistons...they're right on the cusp of
having home court throughout except for a potential matchup
with the C's. They can't afford to slip.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:55 pm
by nate33
dobrojim wrote:Maybe I'm underestimating the difficulty of our remaining schedule
relative to PHL, but their's seems worse than ours. We have 3 very
unlikely to win road games vs WC teams (UT, LAL and POR which
is clearly the easiest of those 3) We also play in DET in ORL 2x, BOS here.
Those are definitely iffy games, but PHL's schedule looks tough
as well. Shouldn't there be a reciprocal relationship between how
easy you've had it vs how easy your remaining schedule is?

I think we lucked out.

In the last 8 games or so, we face a bunch of games against teams that are out of the playoffs entirely, or have the position locked up. We play Orlando, Detroit and Boston who may be resting starters, and we play Miami, Milwaukee and Indy who should be in full tank mode. Only Philly and Chicago will have motivation.

Philly, on the other hand, faces Cleveland, New Jersey, Charlotte, us, and Atlanta twice in their last 8 games. All those teams figure to be highly motivated to win. They're theoretically easier opponents than the likes of Boston, Detroit and Orlando, but in reality, they'll be harder games.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:57 pm
by nate33
dobrojim wrote:CHI ought to be highly motivated

they're only a half game out right now

see my post above re the Pistons...they're right on the cusp of
having home court throughout except for a potential matchup
with the C's. They can't afford to slip.

Fair point about Detroit.

But I'd rather play Boston or Orlando than a team like Atlanta or New Jersey if I were Philly.

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:01 pm
by hands11
I predict we win out the month going 8-2

The Wiz kids are back now that they have their fearless leader.

36-32 by end of month.

TOR is on a west coast trip and losing a lot of games.
2-5 this month with

@ DEN
@SAC
@Utah

then Miami and @CLE

We could be in 5th place or tied by end of month

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:30 pm
by LyricalRico
mhd wrote:Lets go for fourth place and homecourt!

<snip>

13-5 is the best case scenerio.


I'm with you, bro. The Wiz win clip back when Caron was healthy is probably the best predictor of how we'll do so 11-13 more wins isn't out of the question. And don't forget Gil as the ultimate wild card.

I'm so psyched for the rest of the season!

:clap:

Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:43 pm
by pineappleheadindc
^

LET'S GET GREEDY!!!!

:nod:
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