Jamison or Brand for Wiz, who would make this team better?

[BruceO]

Both are 20/10 guys who might be available next season if brand opts out. Do you guys think we will be better with Jamison or Brand? My opinion is I feel we can possibly win more gams with Brand in the lineup (without caron and Gil) than we can with Jamison in the game (without caron and gil) Buts its questionable. I just know alot of people are fixated on Jamison coming back, but we have alot of options including the possible pursuit of brand

[JWizmentality]

Oh Sweet Jesus, don't even get me started.

[nate33]

Of course we'd be better with a healthy Brand. But we're not going to get him so it's not worth discussing.

Brand is due to make $16.4M next year. The only teams with cap room are Philly and Memphis, each with about $12-13M. There is a remote possibility that Philly could sign Brand if Brand would be willing to take a pay cut for long-term security. But I'm sure LA would match or exceed any such offer so Brand probably won't go anywhere.

We do not have the pieces to acquire Brand unless we trade Arenas. And I'd rather have Arenas than Brand since we've already got a pretty solid front line in Haywood, Jamison and Blatche.

[BruceO]

Whats Jamison making, like 16 mill? If theoretically we don't resign him, how much space do we get, also if we do a sign and trade how much can we take on?

[TheKingOfVa360]

Of course we'd be better with a healthy Brand. But we're not going to get him so it's not worth discussing.

Brand is due to make $16.4M next year. The only teams with cap room are Philly and Memphis, each with about $12-13M. There is a remote possibility that Philly could sign Brand if Brand would be willing to take a pay cut for long-term security. But I'm sure LA would match or exceed any such offer so Brand probably won't go anywhere.

We do not have the pieces to acquire Brand unless we trade Arenas. And I'd rather have Arenas than Brand since we've already got a pretty solid front line in Haywood, Jamison and Blatche.

I agree. We don't really need Brand but he would be good on our team.

[doclinkin]

Of course we'd be better with a healthy Brand.

Trust me to challenge the orthodoxy, but I don't even know about that.

Shoot your own player pairs +/- regressions show how pronounced an effect Jamison has had on court over the past few years. His threat range out to 3pts is key on team spacing. Brand is a dimonant [sic-- but I like it, no edit] low-post scorer, remarkably proficient from 15 and in, but the spike in low-post scoring and defense might not make up for the drop off in what we do well offensively. Jamison drags opponent Elton Brands out of the way. To put a stiletto point on it: Jamison makes Gilbert more effective. Makes Tuff Juice more effective. That's saying something.

On defense yes Brand is world's better, immovable as a cement mixer, and in the offensive paint no doubt he's a load. But overall we're an easier guard. Opponent Bigs would stay in the paint --hell they'd have to-- clogging up dribble-drive lanes, forcing a few more outside shots for Caron (you saw his 3fg #'s drop once teams realized they had to guard him out there). And likely we'd have a significant drop-off in fouls by both perimeter players and inside defenders -- there's a reason why in the past few years we've always been in the top 5 of made free throws and converted and-1 attempts, and it ain't our low-post scorers, it comes from outside defenders hacking a first step or Bigs trying to recover when Gil or Caron find a seam and attack a lane.

We'd have a traditional outside in-side (unbalanced) attack, but without high-quality post-entry passers, and in the age of NBA zones.

(I'll beat this point to death in another thread)

But basically scoring aside, I question if the undoubted uptick in defense would make up for the drop off for what we do well when we're doing it right. If we're worried about low-post defense, well we've got solid difference-maker low-post defenders. Haywood takes up a ton of 'post' for us on defense; Blatche is definitely coming on strong behind him, adding more proficient rebounding. And on that tip who knows what DMac's upside potential is. Bulletproof and the Livewire DMcGuire's development allow us to slide Jamison to sub for Caron with minimal drop-off. And Brand definitely cain't do that.

Shoot, even on defense Jamison hasn't even been all that bad this year. Hey he averaged like 3 steals a game in February, with his quick hands alone, not gambling and jumping passing lanes. If he adds that to his repertoire, he could actually become a defensive asset against the Bigs not a liability. Especially as the second-man in on a double-team.

Now would I complain too much if we added Brand-- naw I'm quite sure we'd adjust. But it would be an adjustment-- and who knows how long it would take to find the next set of wrinkles to maximize both his strengths and that of the rest of our roster. It would affect the development of Blatche and Pecherov one way or the other (to see consistent PT Blatche would need to groove his outside shot, tune-up his midrange game-- ditto and double that for Pech) and probably would suggest a few cascade-effect roster shuffle alterations. Those two were drafted on the outside hope that they would develop to duplicate that rare thing that Jamison does so well: outside shooting from a traditional low-post spot (the same reason we had interest in both Donyell Marshall and Darius Songaila). That's why the roster has been built the way it is.

Chemistry is a delicate thing. Jamison is a powerful catalyst for what we do well when we're doing it better than anybody else in the world. And his skill set as a mentor and example for both Pesh and Blatche are key for the long-term development of that future investment. Brand would be less so, even though he's a solid citizen, good leader, and the first longterm successful player to come out of Duke (reversing a long trend of snakebite and suckitude).

Just saying, it's a 90-degree change of direction, no telling what ultimate effect it would have, and because of that, on top of all the other reasons, I don't see it as likely. Unless we're blowing up the team and starting over. Which, ya never know.

[nate33]

I agree with much of what you said doc. Jamison has been huge for us this year and he is still underrated by most on this board. It's entirely possible that we'd fare a little better with Jamison instead of Brand during the regular season.

I think Brand would make a big difference in the playoffs though. When the game slows down and teams have had time to fully scout the opposition, it ultimately boils down to talent. And I think Brand has more.

The thing you fail to mention about Brand is that he's also a money perimeter shooter. Last year, 70% of his shots were jumpers and he hit an incredible 47% of them. That's remarkable accuracy. The guy is automatic from 15-18 feet. For comparison, 71% of Jamison's shots are jumpers but his eFG% is just .389. (Despite a high percentage of them being 3-pointers. His FG% on jumpers is considerably lower.)

What I'm saying is that Brand could stretch the floor just like Jamison does, and he can post just like Jamison does; only he does them both more efficiently while also playing better defense. The only thing Jamison has on Brand is the 3-point shot.

[nate33]

Whats Jamison making, like 16 mill? If theoretically we don't resign him, how much space do we get, also if we do a sign and trade how much can we take on?

None.

The only way for us to have cap room is if we renounce both Arenas and Jamison. If we did so, we'd have about $14M in cap space. If we keep either one of them, we have no cap space.

[Wizards2Lottery]

I'll take Andray Blatche in two years over both.

[MJG]

I'll take Andray Blatche in two years over both.

You really think Blatche will be better than Brand in two years? Brand isn't even 30 yet, I don't think. I have a hard time picturing Blatche being that good.

[doclinkin]

The thing you fail to mention about Brand is that he's also a money perimeter shooter. Last year, 70% of his shots were jumpers and he hit an incredible 47% of them. That's remarkable accuracy. The guy is automatic from 15-18 feet. For comparison, 71% of Jamison's shots are jumpers but his eFG% is just .389. (Despite a high percentage of them being 3-pointers. His FG% on jumpers is considerably lower.)

What I'm saying is that Brand could stretch the floor just like Jamison does

Yeah I said 15 feet and in. BUt okay, 17-18 maybe. But his 3pt % is what? 12%. Not that he couldn't develop an outside shot and Hopla-cize it. But the difference between 22 feet and 17 feet is the difference of a long quick-step, Jamison's quick-shot propensity and predilection to shoot from way out preserves just thatmuch more spacing. Again it's less about his eFG% and more about the team that surrounds him. Really. I like Elton Brand a ton, just saying the upgrade isn't as stark as you might think and team roles would change. There's real questions if in the short term we'd be better.

I take your point about the postseason though.

[gowiz999]

Anyone but Jamison. He is no longer a capable starter in the NBA. If he was smart he'd go to the bench and extend his career.

[WizBiz]

Jamison is so a capable starter. When you notice some of the crap other teams have at PF you'll see he's not that bad. He's just under a lot of pressure this season with Gil and Caron being out. With them in the lineup, he's a very good and efficient scorer.

[nate33]

Anyone but Jamison. He is no longer a capable starter in the NBA. If he was smart he'd go to the bench and extend his career.

Worst. Post. Ever.

[Wizards2Lottery]

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You really think Blatche will be better than Brand in two years? Brand isn't even 30 yet, I don't think. I have a hard time picturing Blatche being that good.

In two years Blatche will still be on the ridiculous contract he has right now. If he lives up to my expectations, hes going to be averaging something like 17/10/4blks/3assists in two years.

I'd take that over however much Brand or Jamison would cost.

[fishercob]

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In two years Blatche will still be on the ridiculous contract he has right now. If he lives up to my expectations, hes going to be averaging something like 17/10/4blks/3assists in two years.

I'd take that over however much Brand or Jamison would cost.

I love Dray, but please. For his career, alltime blocks leader Hakeem Olajuwon averaged 3.1 bpg. He exceeded 4 bpg four times in his 17 year career.

[JWizmentality]

If Ernie doesn't resign AJ, I think we are the front runners for Brand.

[miller31time]

If Ernie doesn't resign AJ, I think we are the front runners for Brand.

Even then, we wouldn't be able to afford him. Unless he wanted to come here for the MLE, which he wouldn't.

[JWizmentality]

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Even then, we wouldn't be able to afford him. Unless he wanted to come here for the MLE, which he wouldn't.

I'm not a cap Wiz, but 16mil off the books and we still wouldn't be able to pick him up?!?!?

[miller31time]

I'm not a cap Wiz, but 16mil off the books and we still wouldn't be able to pick him up?!?!?

Nope. To free up 15+ million in capspace, we'd have to let both Jamison AND Arenas go this summer.

We're so insanely close to the luxury tax right now.