nate33 wrote:Of course we'd be better with a healthy Brand.
Trust me to challenge the orthodoxy, but I don't even know about that.
Shoot your own player pairs +/- regressions show how pronounced an effect Jamison has had on court over the past few years. His threat range out to 3pts is key on team spacing. Brand is a dimonant [sic-- but I like it, no edit] low-post scorer, remarkably proficient from 15 and in, but the spike in low-post scoring and defense might not make up for the drop off in what we do well offensively. Jamison drags opponent Elton Brands out of the way. To put a stiletto point on it: Jamison makes Gilbert more effective. Makes Tuff Juice more effective. That's saying something.
On defense yes Brand is world's better, immovable as a cement mixer, and in the offensive paint no doubt he's a load. But overall we're an easier guard. Opponent Bigs would stay in the paint --hell they'd have to-- clogging up dribble-drive lanes, forcing a few more outside shots for Caron (you saw his 3fg #'s drop once teams realized they had to guard him out there). And likely we'd have a significant drop-off in fouls by both perimeter players and inside defenders -- there's a reason why in the past few years we've always been in the top 5 of made free throws and converted and-1 attempts, and it ain't our low-post scorers, it comes from outside defenders hacking a first step or Bigs trying to recover when Gil or Caron find a seam and attack a lane.
We'd have a traditional outside in-side (unbalanced) attack, but without high-quality post-entry passers, and in the age of NBA zones.
(I'll beat this point to death in another thread)
But basically scoring aside, I question if the undoubted uptick in defense would make up for the drop off for what we do well when we're doing it right. If we're worried about low-post defense, well we've got solid difference-maker low-post defenders. Haywood takes up a ton of 'post' for us on defense; Blatche is definitely coming on strong behind him, adding more proficient rebounding. And on that tip who knows what DMac's upside potential is. Bulletproof and the Livewire DMcGuire's development allow us to slide Jamison to sub for Caron with minimal drop-off. And Brand definitely cain't do that.
Shoot, even on defense Jamison hasn't even been all that bad this year. Hey he averaged like 3 steals a game in February, with his quick hands alone, not gambling and jumping passing lanes. If he adds that to his repertoire, he could actually become a defensive asset against the Bigs not a liability. Especially as the second-man in on a double-team.
Now would I complain too much if we added Brand-- naw I'm quite sure we'd adjust. But it would be an adjustment-- and who knows how long it would take to find the next set of wrinkles to maximize both his strengths and that of the rest of our roster. It would affect the development of Blatche and Pecherov one way or the other (to see consistent PT Blatche would need to groove his outside shot, tune-up his midrange game-- ditto and double that for Pech) and probably would suggest a few cascade-effect roster shuffle alterations. Those two were drafted on the outside hope that they would develop to duplicate that rare thing that Jamison does so well: outside shooting from a traditional low-post spot (the same reason we had interest in both Donyell Marshall and Darius Songaila). That's why the roster has been built the way it is.
Chemistry is a delicate thing. Jamison is a powerful catalyst for what we do well when we're doing it better than anybody else in the world. And his skill set as a mentor and example for both Pesh and Blatche are key for the long-term development of that future investment. Brand would be less so, even though he's a solid citizen, good leader, and the first longterm successful player to come out of Duke (reversing a long trend of snakebite and suckitude).
Just saying, it's a 90-degree change of direction, no telling what ultimate effect it would have, and because of that, on top of all the other reasons, I don't see it as likely. Unless we're blowing up the team and starting over. Which, ya never know.