Hollinger is awful

[newslowsad]

I know none of us (or at least I hope) puts any stock into this, but I still think it is hilarious that the Wiz are behind Toronto (who has been playing like ass for at least a month) in the stupid Hollinger rankings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking

[BigA]

Hey, at least the win over Boston moved the Wizards ahead of the Cavs and the Hawks.

[mzaretsk]

didn't he predict that we'd win 33 games this season? and that chicago would have the best record in nba? at which point do you say - this guy needs to step away from the calculator and watch a game or two?

[newslowsad]

Hey, at least the win over Boston moved the Wizards ahead of the Cavs and the Hawks.

Haha yeah.

[newslowsad]

didn't he predict that we'd win 33 games this season? and that chicago would have the best record in nba? at which point do you say - this guy needs to step away from the calculator and watch a game or two?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Hollinger uses scoring differential, which is generally a better measure of relative team strength than record. Fact is, Toronto has a better scoring differential than the Wiz.

[dobrojim]

didn't he predict that we'd win 33 games this season? and that chicago would have the best record in nba? at which point do you say - this guy needs to step away from the calculator and watch a game or two?

predictions on the NBA level that make a guy like Bill Kristol,
talking about post-Saddam Iraq, seem like a prophet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Fact also is we knew 33 wins was a bad prediction.

I said in October-November this team would win 53 games and by playoffs be able to beat anybody. Two wins over New Orleans and three wins over Boston, as well as defeating every other top team at least once proves that.

Injuries took away from the record, however the team's on a 43-win pace and they've demonstrated they can beat anybody.

If the Wizards can get DeShawn healthy and if they stop leaving perimeter shooters wide open, (that is they stop playing wretched defense), they can not only get to the NBA finals; but they just might win it all.

Yes, I said it.

If you look at the size and the quality bigs Washington has, they're loaded at C when Haywood and Blatche are both playing well. Darius is suddenly a super sub. Jamison is suddenly fiesty at both ends. (I'm thinking about him mugging McDyess for a rebound and him being very physical against Garnett. It's as if Jamison has suddenly discovered it's FUN to beat on guys and to cause them distress!) Caron's hurting but when healthy he's a great offensive talent.

And Gil's back.

This team's only worries are health and defense.

I think they're going to get healthier with each week that passes come playoff time.

I also think Eddie's getting better as a coach.

The Wizards will go as far as EJ and Brendan take them. Haywood's the key. He must play excellent at both ends. When he does that this team's extremely tough. Eddie just has to coach em up and to not let his love for starters and offense blind him to the need to have young legs and improved defense out there.

I think Washington's more talented than every other team in the east when healthy and they've been together long enough to beat the Orlandos and Clevelands and even Boston in the playoffs.

Detroit's the team I think the Wizards won't beat in a series but I could be wrong about that, too.

[dobrojim]

Fact also is we knew 33 wins was a bad prediction.

I said in October-November this team would win 53 games and by playoffs be able to beat anybody. Two wins over New Orleans and three wins over Boston, as well as defeating every other top team at least once proves that.

Injuries took away from the record, however the team's on a 43-win pace and they've demonstrated they can beat anybody.

If the Wizards can get DeShawn healthy and if they stop leaving perimeter shooters wide open, (that is they stop playing wretched defense), they can not only get to the NBA finals; but they just might win it all.


Yes, I said it.

If you look at the size and the quality bigs Washington has, they're loaded at C when Haywood and Blatche are both playing well. Darius is suddenly a super sub. Jamison is suddenly fiesty at both ends. (I'm thinking about him mugging McDyess for a rebound and him being very physical against Garnett. It's as if Jamison has suddenly discovered it's FUN to beat on guys and to cause them distress!) Caron's hurting but when healthy he's a great offensive talent.

And Gil's back.

This team's only worries are health and defense.

I think they're going to get healthier with each week that passes come playoff time.

I also think Eddie's getting better as a coach.

The Wizards will go as far as EJ and Brendan take them. Haywood's the key. He must play excellent at both ends. When he does that this team's extremely tough. Eddie just has to coach em up and to not let his love for starters and offense blind him to the need to have young legs and improved defense out there.

I think Washington's more talented than every other team in the east when healthy and they've been together long enough to beat the Orlandos and Clevelands and even Boston in the playoffs.

Detroit's the team I think the Wizards won't beat in a series but I could be wrong about that, too.

I'm going to nitpick with my friend CCJ here.

PHO and LA and UT all swept us. That's just off the top of my head,
oh yeah, HOU too IIRC. It seems clear to me that there are definitely
teams which have personnel and systems which we have not shown
that we can beat.

I think we can get to the Finals if things fall into place. All the teams
that we have not shown we can beat are in the West. So at this point,
I don't think they can win it all. But talk to me again when we make
the Finals

[BigA]

After what the Jersey Giants did this year, who knows.

[Soup's Uncle]

I'd say we're the dark horse of the east.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

EJ coached one of the worst games I've ever seen against Phoenix. He tried to go small. Phoenix set or nearly set an NBA record for assists as the Wizards failed to cover the perimeter. The Wizards had fits against them when they ran all over the place. Now that they have Shaq with Amare, they're tough. Good one, jim. Yet, I think the Wizards have way too much offense at G for the Suns, an old team, to deal with. We'll see.

Utah lost by over 40 to the Wizards just a week or two back, jim.

And the day before they destroyed the Jazz, jim, the Wizards gave a road game away in OT to the Lakers. (Wizards gave up 6 threes to Vujacic and 4 threes to Radmanovic-all wide open but had a lead in OT before losing 120-126). The Lakers have defeated the Wizards twice. Then again, Gil didn't play and that's the same team he scored 60 on last season ...

jim, Utah's system and personnel were beat by 42 and LALs should have been beat.

The Wizards have the personnel to beat anybody.

[Spence]

Hollinger uses scoring differential, which is generally a better measure of relative team strength than record. Fact is, Toronto has a better scoring differential than the Wiz.

Kev, the fact that he has the Spurs ranked 11th demonstrates the weakness of the scoring differential metric.

[penbeast0]

either that or it means he is looking at what those teams accomplished in the regular season so far, rather than playoff strength. Face it, David Robinson was a better regular season center than Hakeem Olujawon but Hakeem always turned it up a notch in the postseason where the Admiral didn't. Thus Hakeem is clearly better. That is what San Antonio is counting on; turning it up a notch in the playoffs . . . again.

[TheSecretWeapon]

-= original quote snipped =-

Kev, the fact that he has the Spurs ranked 11th demonstrates the weakness of the scoring differential metric.

Why does one or two results that folks subjectively disagree outweigh the reams of research that Hollinger (and some others) have done?

[WizStorm]

-= original quote snipped =-



Why does one or two results that folks subjectively disagree outweigh the reams of research that Hollinger (and some others) have done?

Because he said a healthy Wizards squad would only get 33 wins this season. Being on a Wizard's board, that fact alone will force extra cynical analysis on all of his conclusions.

[TheSecretWeapon]

-= original quote snipped =-

Because he said a healthy Wizards squad would only get 33 wins this season. Being on a Wizard's board, that fact alone will force extra cynical analysis on all of his conclusions.

I can see that, I guess.

The preseason prediction is based on an entirely different set of research, though -- one that's still very much a work in progress. Basically, he's projecting PER for players based on players with similar statistical profiles. The similarity research is still in its infancy among basketball stat analysts, so the projections (and therefore his predictions) are going to have some nutty results.

The scoring differential stuff is solid. Hollinger has his own way of presenting the information, but the basic research into scoring differential has been replicated by a number of people in a number of different ways, and we all come to basically the same result. Shoot, I used to win playoff pools all the time just going by scoring differential.

And, I guess most casual fans aren't going to know the difference in the relative "solidness" of the data he's putting out.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Any way to factor in that win the zards lose, they have a tendency to lose big? but we haven't blown anyone out? why does the computer care if we lost by one or by twenty?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Any way to factor in that win the zards lose, they have a tendency to lose big? but we haven't blown anyone out? why does the computer care if we lost by one or by twenty?

Good teams generally don't get blown out. At least not regularly. Good teams generally win by larger margins. The games they lose are usually closer. Sagarin at USA Today has his ELO Chess rankings, in which scoring margin doesn't matter. In that ranking, the Wiz come in at 15th; Toronto at 17th. In his combined ranking (combining scoring margin and this ELO Chess thingy), the Wiz come out behind Toronto.

[dobrojim]

EJ coached one of the worst games I've ever seen against Phoenix. He tried to go small. Phoenix set or nearly set an NBA record for assists as the Wizards failed to cover the perimeter. The Wizards had fits against them when they ran all over the place. Now that they have Shaq with Amare, they're tough. Good one, jim. Yet, I think the Wizards have way too much offense at G for the Suns, an old team, to deal with. We'll see.

Utah lost by over 40 to the Wizards just a week or two back, jim.

And the day before they destroyed the Jazz, jim, the Wizards gave a road game away in OT to the Lakers. (Wizards gave up 6 threes to Vujacic and 4 threes to Radmanovic-all wide open but had a lead in OT before losing 120-126). The Lakers have defeated the Wizards twice. Then again, Gil didn't play and that's the same team he scored 60 on last season ...

jim, Utah's system and personnel were beat by 42 and LALs should have been beat.

The Wizards have the personnel to beat anybody.

You're mis-remembering. I wish we won by 40. WE LOST by 40.
We won 2 on the 5 game trip, SAC and SEA. In our own defense,
the UT game was the day after the OT loss and the final game of
the trip.

Also DEN handled us well both times, and we were competitive with
PHL but couldn't close the deal on 2 occasions. And that was before
they were playing like they are now. It's unlikely we'll face them
but I think they're as much a dark horse as we are with the one
proviso that we are playoff tested and more vet which one would
generally correlate positively with playoff success.