My latest article for RealGM

Post #1 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:41 pm

Basically, I use a combination of advanced stats to take a look at which players really matter most to his team.

Jamison comes in 6th.

http://www.realgm.com/src_goaltending/1 ... _true_mvp/

Spence · Post #2 » by **Spence** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:15 pm

This is ridiculous, Kev. Didn't you get the memo that Jamison is the only thing standing between Washington and a string of NBA titles? I got that memo. I may have used it for lavatory paper, but I still got it.

Jamison -- valuable to his team?? How can this be?

Note: I don't do the green text stuff. Not my style.

Post #3 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:40 pm

I forget these things sometimes. I'll have to add a column for "message board discontent."

Post #4 » by **W. Unseld** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:41 pm

How far down is Duncan?

Donkey McDonkerton · Post #5 » by **Donkey McDonkerton** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:45 pm

I thought you were gonna say Jamison was 6th on our team...LOL

Ji · Post #6 » by Ji » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:47 pm

Ji · Post #7 » by Ji » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:47 pm

Donkey McDonkerton wrote:I thought you were gonna say Jamison was 6th on our team...LOL

I thought the same thing at first. Pretty shocking

DCZards · Post #8 » by **DCZards** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:10 pm

Ji wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

I thought the same thing at first. Pretty shocking

It's only shocking to those folks on this board who have b**tched and moaned all season long (and seasons before that) about how AJ is too "soft" and how the Zards will never win anything with him as a starter.

All the guy does is put up a double-double most nights. In fact, with the way he's carried the Zards this season we all should be kissing his butt.

Given the loss of GA and the missed games by CB, the Zards would have been lucky to win 25 games without AJ, imo.

VAWiZKID · Post #9 » by **VAWiZKID** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:16 pm

Soup's Uncle · Post #10 » by **Soup's Uncle** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:31 pm

This hurts my brain

Post #11 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:46 pm

W. Unseld wrote:How far down is Duncan?

He lands 11th. His MVP Score is 76, which means he's basically in a dead heat with Pierce and Davis for 10th -- they were both at 77. One thing working against Duncan in this system is that he plays relatively few minutes (just 67% of the Spurs minutes this season).

Of course, right after typing that, I glanced at the top 5 and I see that Nash and Dirk each played just 70% of their teams' minutes.

If I hold minutes constant, here's the new top 10:

1. Lebron -- 100
2. Nash -- 98
3. Dirk -- 97
4. Paul -- 95
5. Garnett -- 93
6. Ginobili -- 89
7. Duncan -- 87
8. Jamison -- 84
9. Iverson -- 82
10. Amare -- 82

Wizards2Lottery · Post #12 » by **Wizards2Lottery** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:14 pm

I'd like to see AJ's numbers this year compared to the past two seasons when he wasn't playing for a new contract. For some reason, I doubt they round up to be as great as they are this year but if they are, I'm gladly willing to eat crow since all I want is for this team to win.

Post #13 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:48 pm

Gilbert0Arenas wrote:I'd like to see AJ's numbers this year compared to the past two seasons when he wasn't playing for a new contract. For some reason, I doubt they round up to be as great as they are this year but if they are, I'm gladly willing to eat crow since all I want is for this team to win.

That's a wonderfully glass half empty way of looking at this. Jamison had a great season this year at a time when the Wiz desperately needed him to do just that. I think it's safe to say that this was the best season of Jamison's career. The fact that he wasn't quite as good in previous seasons shouldn't diminish what he did this year.

Wizards2Lottery · Post #14 » by **Wizards2Lottery** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 9:54 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

That's a wonderfully glass half empty way of looking at this. Jamison had a great season this year at a time when the Wiz desperately needed him to do just that. I think it's safe to say that this was the best season of Jamison's career. The fact that he wasn't quite as good in previous seasons shouldn't diminish what he did this year.

I'll be thrilled if Jamison displays the same effort next year. Its not even a numbers thing. Antawn hasn't been this willing to defend or display this sort of oncourt toughness in the past. I hope we see the same effort on the defensive end next year from him. It makes us a better team and I hope I'm wrong in my assumption that some of this has to with him being in a contract season.

Benjammin · Post #15 » by **Benjammin** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:59 pm

AJ has done better this year defensively. I have always appreciated the value of statistics while also recognizing that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Or as Richard Pryor put it when he was caught cheating by his wife: "Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Post #16 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 3:09 pm

Stats don't really lie -- the people generating them do use them to lie sometimes. Or they just misunderstand what the numbers are saying. Or they don't build their study in the best way possible.

For example, I got an email suggestion from someone offering a possible change to the MVP Calculator. The change would reshuffle the results and make Nash the MVP for this season. It's an interesting idea that I'll be toying with.

Post #17 » by **jmrosenth** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 3:18 pm

Is there a way to build in a component that accounts for win differential from last season? I have a hard time accepting any ranking that doesn't have KG in the top 10 - the season that Pierce had be damned. I think possibly too much weight is given to minutes played, but I'm not quite clear on how you calculate it.

Post #18 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 3:34 pm

I dunno -- I like the way the minutes component works. When I make everyone's minutes the same, note that KG rises to 5th -- and a very close 5th at that. Minutes matter, and KG played just 60% of the time this season. He was definitely important, but I don't think he played enough to warrant being MVP.

I could work in a wins differential thing from the previous season. I'm not sure I want to do that, but I may play with that a bit and see that can come of it. All that would likely do this year, though is move up both Pierce and KG. Under this basic methodology, Pierce would still show up as "more valuable" because he played a lot more minutes with a similar on/off.

It's worth noting that the difference between them is very small. Pierce's MVP score this season was a 77 -- KG's was a 72.

ZonkertheBrainless · Post #19 » by **ZonkertheBrainless** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 3:41 pm

I don't think AJ is playing harder this year, he's just playing smarter. Everybody on the team knows where they're supposed to be on defense because Randy Ayers taught them how to communicate better. That and Gil's absence also. Gil really has no clue where he's supposed to be on defense, that's why he always gets so mad about it. It's not like he's not trying hard, he just has no idea what he's supposed to do. Or he has his own ideas that suck, like gambling for steals all the time.

GilbertisNice72 · Post #20 » by **GilbertisNice72** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 4:53 pm

Good going AJ! You've been a rock all year baby!

By the way... did anyone else read Hollinger's predictions this morning on ESPN and wonder how in the world he could muster...

(a) a comment like this: "Meanwhile, the Boston juggernaut will dismiss Washington in four." (((4...? is he serious? we wont even win ONE? When we spanked them thrice in a row? Whatever dude.)

(b) posting a picture like this one which implies we got whored by Boston? If I recall, the highlight i kept seeing a few weeks ago was AJ dunking on Garnett... not eh other way around.

Well... let's just say I had to send a heated little email to our buddies at ESPN. Frickin' lame-o's!!!