RealGM

There are many things wrong this series ...

Part 1 -- Rebounding
The Wizards are being outrebounded by Cleveland 46.0 to 35.8 in the playoffs. The deficit is 10.2 rebounds per game.

During the regular season, the Wizards averaged 41.6 rebounds. That's 5.8 less rebounds than during the regular season.

Cleveland averaged 44.6 rebounds during the regulars season. They are plus 1.4.

Instead of outrebounding the Wizard by 3 a game, as might be expected, they are outrebounding the Wizards by 10.

During the blowout loss at Cleveland, Washington was outrebounded by 15. During yesterday's heartbreaker, they were outrebounded by 20. Why is that?

Okay, I've stated the obvious: Washington's getting killed on the boards. Now it's time to name names.

Caron Butler in virtually identical playing time between regular season and playoffs have gone from averaging 6.7 rebounds to 4.0. That's -2.7 rebounds.

DeShawn Stevenson in virtually identical time has gone from 2.9 to 1.5 rebounds. Nearly a 50% decrease and -1.4 rebounds.

Brendan Haywood in the same minutes has gone from 7.2 to 6.3 minutes, a -0.9 or about a 12.5% dropoff for him.

Jamison's rebounding betterbut Blatche/Songaila's combined total being almost identically less neutralizes the gain Antawn might give the Wizards.

Okay, now that I've named names that begs the question what are they doing differently that might account for them not getting rebounds? That's what I don't know.

Part II Three Point Shot Attempts and Three Point Percentage

During the regular season, the Wizards attempted 19.6 three pointers, and made 7.0, for an average of 35.6%.

During the playoffs the Wizards have attempted a virtually identical 19.7 three point shots, but have made only 6.0, for an average of 30.8%. That's 1 less three and about 16% less accurate.

Jamison's down from 33.9% from three to 23.5%. Butler's down from 35.7% to 11.1% on threes.

Conversely, the Cavaliers attempts and makes are up by one, with their percentages slightly higher in the playoffs than their regular averages. From 6.7 of 18.8 at 35.8% to 7.5 of 20.5 at 36.6%.

The Cavs are taking more threes and hurting the Wizards from three. Game 4 was the huge swing in that trend, however. They made 11 of 28.

Noteworthy: West has doubled his threes and is hitting 57% in the playoffs. (Wizards might want to cover him in game 5.)

Part III Free Throw Disparity? Fact or Fiction

Cleveland's regular season free throws: 18.0 of 25.1 at 71.7%
Cleveland's playoff free throws: 21.3 of 31.5 at 67.5%

Washington's regular season free throws: 19.0 of 24.3 at 78.2%
Washington's playoff free throws: 23.3 of 30.8 at at 75.6%

Hey, the refs are not taking this! They are calling a lot more fouls and perhaps the pace of the games favors Cleveland. Washington's playing as if they're being victimized each game by officiating, however.

Noteworthy: Brendan's getting to the line significantly more often, yet attempting relatively few shots. His playoff free throws are up from 3.7 to 5.3, but he's taking LESS shots than in the regular season. Down to 7.0 from 7.5. I know FTs account for this, but the point is if the guy's getting to the line MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE AND HE'S HITTING 80%, why is he only playing 27 minutes?

Hey, my insomnia's wearing off and I'm sure this long post will bore many.

CONCLUSIONS:

1. Washington needs to get on the boards.

Butler, Stevenson, and Haywood need to be the catalysts. I think changing the lineup to Butler at SG, Jamison at SF, Songaila (or Blatche or McGuire) at PF, and Haywood at C might work wonders if Stevenson's not in there. Guard rebounds are rebounds.

2. Don't leave the perimeter unguarded as in game 4.

West and Gibson are combining to shoot over 50% from three. I think making Lebron alone beat the Wizards is better than leaving shooters open. More size in the backcourt, also a solution above, might work wonders.

3. Feed the post.

The significance of Haywood getting to the line should not be understated. The man is getting respect from the officials, but not so much from his teammates or coaching staff. Why not play Haywood 40 minutes and try to get him 15-20 shots? Play him with Jamison and Songaila, or Jamison and Blatche so they can rebound when Brendan shoots. A big part of the Wizards problem is when Brendan shoots the rest don't hit the boards at all.

Also, Darius, Caron, Antawn, and Daniels need to attack the rim as often as possible! The only way they come back this series is to get Ilgauskas and Varejao in foul trouble early each game IMHO.

Specifically, Caron and Antawn need to stop taking threes and get to the line. Jamison needs to make his free throws. Caron needs to make sure to try and rebound his misses in the lane.

This is my contribution to what will likely be the last game of the year IF they don't make adjustments.

Much like last year I suspect that the Wiz will hit the boards hard in this game. However it is difficult as long as you are double and triple teaming LeBron. It makes it very difficult to prevent weakside rebounds. But overall I think you have give a very good and insightful analysis.

It's so clear now - we need Jeffries back. Sure, LeBron still scored 30+ but at least we didn't have to double team him.

the Wizards are a better team that don't play with the right energy and rotations. They can win the next 3 games and Cleveland shouldn't have a chance. They should run Cleveland out of the gym.

It's hard to run if you don't have the ball. Sure the Cavs slow the tempo down but one of the main reasons they can do that is that they generally control the boards. That often means that their opponents can't just run out for layups they have to send more men to the boards.

Jeffries was still getting help, but he had an annoying ability to draw charges on LeBron which like in the 4th quarter yesterday make LeBron more of a jump shooter

LyricalRico wrote:It's so clear now - we need Jeffries back. Sure, LeBron still scored 30+ but at least we didn't have to double team him.

Having Jeffries at SG increases the rebounding considerably and also enables the Wizards to use one defender with size on Lebron.

If the Wizards could trade Etan for Jeffries, I'd be all for it.

LyricalRico wrote:It's so clear now - we need Jeffries back. Sure, LeBron still scored 30+ but at least we didn't have to double team him.

I was one of the few people who actually thought
that Jeffries was a huge loss. Granted, I wouldn't
have given the kid that kind of contract.

I think you guys are overstating the Jeffries value in this. Like I said, sure Jeffries was getting some charging fouls on LeBron but he was getting help as well. If you really look at it, LeBron had a better series 2 years ago than he's having now.

I think people are forgetting how bad Jeffries was offensively. Stevenson at least stretches the court with his 3 point shooting. I would still make the argument that this team could have been best served if its owner had deeper pockets like Dan Snyder.

Kanyewest wrote:I would still make the argument that this team could have been best served if its owner had deeper pockets like Dan Snyder.

Like the future owner Ted Leonsis perhaps?

Here's a cray idea for the off-season that could yield benefit:

Bring in Dennis Rodman to tutor dmac on the nuances of rebounding. Rodman was probably the best rebounder (pound-for-pound)in the league's history. He was a rebounding freak of nature who possessed both the physical (length, strength, quick hops) and mental (tenacity) attributes to be a great boarder. But he didn't start out that way. When he played for Detroit he was a skinny kid who hustled. Somewhere along the way he modified his game to harness his strengths to become a huge force. I see in dmac a lot of the same intangibles, as well as athleticism: the pogo-stick hops. Now, don't get me wrong, Rodman is probably the last guy I'd want mentoring young players, however, who knows, maybe he's got a lot of wisdom (in the form of wily rebounding tricks) to offer. The upside could be huge: if dmac could become half the player Rodman was in his prime, the twiz would have their own secret weapon II for years to come.

TheOUTLAW wrote:I think you guys are overstating the Jeffries value in this. Like I said, sure Jeffries was getting some charging fouls on LeBron but he was getting help as well. If you really look at it, LeBron had a better series 2 years ago than he's having now.

Because he was guarded 1on1 for the most part, which really made it a series that was LBJ dominant...

We are getting contributions elsewhere because the focus and defense it tilted towards LBJ more in this series than series one.. Coupled with the fact that Z is playing much better in this series than the first one..

Rebounding is the key factor... However, the Wizards interior defense is poor, and the shot selection is just awful... Luckily Jamison is someone that can hit weird shots, but that doesn't mean they're good shots...

The Cavs are making him and Butler (who made a couple tough ones late in the game yesterday) make some pretty tough shots...And Stevenson kills any flow with his poor 3 point attempts..

Personally, I think the problem is Antonio Daniels... He really gave us trouble last year on his penetration, and ability to get others involved.. The pick and roll he played with Jamison and Haywood last year really gave us trouble..The Cavs cannot guard dribble penetration at all.. Big Z is one of the dumbest pick and roll defending bigs in the league..

The Cavs have no problem with the Wizards coming down jacking up jumpers or giving the ball in to Butler at the top of the key or on the wing so he can face up and try to take Wally off the dribble or taking a mid range jumper.. The Cavs would prefer that as opposed to the Wizards doing a little pick and roll with Jamison and Daniels and scoring in the paint..

Daniels in the key....

Let me get this straight, you guys are suggesting that Abe should have - or Leonsis (or even a moron like Snyder) would have - gone into luxury tax land for JJ and Stevenson? Pay a $ for $ tax for either of those guys?

That isn't really what you're saying is it? If it is, put down the pipe and go get some fresh air.

Cramer wrote:Let me get this straight, you guys are suggesting that Abe should have - or Leonsis (or even a moron like Snyder) would have - gone into luxury tax land for JJ and Stevenson? Pay a $ for $ tax for either of those guys?

That isn't really what you're saying is it? If it is, put down the pipe and go get some fresh air.

Yes, an owner with deeper pockets would have gone into luxury tax land. Dan Snyder is not a stupid owner because he spends his money. Rather, Snyder criticism has come because he has not hired a GM like Ernie Grunfeld.

LyricalRico wrote:It's so clear now - we need Jeffries back. Sure, LeBron still scored 30+ but at least we didn't have to double team him.

TAKE IT BACK!

of course, he was a soled defender with long arms, but I believe we gave him the nickname "O-Face" as for not being able to shoot at all, including LAYUPS.

but i would have to say that i would trade ET for him...maybe.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Having Jeffries at SG increases the rebounding considerably and also enables the Wizards to use one defender with size on Lebron.

If the Wizards could trade Etan for Jeffries, I'd be all for it.

Nice review CCJ

We will keep promoting these chances until they happen.

The main focus should be getting their post players and foul trouble early and getting mismatches on their guards.

Playing big will do that.

We have to get BH more touches in the paint.

We should also not be afraid to get DMAC in the game for energy and rebounds. If you can play Ruffin, you can play DMAC.

Actually, if the are going to start Z and Wallace maybe we could start DSong.

BH 7-0 263 vs Z 7-3 260
DS 6-9 243 vs Wallace 6-9 240
AJ 6-9 235 vs LJ 6-8 240
CB 6-7 230 vs Wally 6-7 240
AD 6-4 205 vs D West 6-4 180

This is the kind of adjustment that is with in EJ brain to do. Here is why it could work..

BH can get Z in foul trouble if we feed the paint. BH can score and rebound - a wash or + BH

DSONG is stronger the AB or AJ and he can defend and battle the boards against Wallace. He can also cause problem for Wallace with inside and outside offense. He can also use his fouls to free up fouls from AJ and AB DSONG is also a smart toughish player who will pass and shot a the right time. Basically AJ with more stregth and pass and less 3 shooting
+ DSONG

AJ vs LJ. I know people wont like this but consider this. LB is going to get his anyway and CB will be covering him sometimes. This combo adds more height on the outside and more rebounding. On offense, both can put pressure on LJ to defend both inside and out. adv LB

CB has all the skills to handle Wally on D and would put a lot of pressure on Wally with his offense. ++ CB

AD can get by DWest and drive putting pressure on Z and Wallace. He can then finish or dish to BH or DSong who can both finish. So more drives to the paint. More fouls and more assists for dunks and fouls + AD

So they have their adv and star in LJ and we have our big adv of CB over Wally. But we match up better then them at ever other position.

Then when they go Z and side show Bob, we go with BH and AB
When they go J Smith we go DMAC

This keep AB and BH with less fouls for when they go Z and Side show which is the hardest for us to cover.

Then we match up with their other guards with ours

Kanyewest wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Yes, an owner with deeper pockets would have gone into luxury tax land. Dan Snyder is not a stupid owner because he spends his money. Rather, Snyder criticism has come because he has not hired a GM like Ernie Grunfeld.

You're nucking futs.

No owner is going to pay a $ for $ luxury tax for those guys. You guys act like all kinds of owners are willing to cut those checks. Very, very few owners are, and there's only one team that might go into luxury tax land for those guys and that'd be the Knicks, and we see where that got them.

No one said Snyder was stupid for spending his money. He's stupid for not spending it wisely.

Cramer wrote:You're nucking futs.

No owner is going to pay a $ for $ luxury tax for those guys. You guys act like all kinds of owners are willing to cut those checks. Very, very few owners are, and there's only one team that might go into luxury tax land for those guys and that'd be the Knicks, and we see where that got them.

No one said Snyder was stupid for spending his money. He's stupid for not spending it wisely.

Uh, everything above is correct. No sane person is going to pay luxury tax money for Bigmouth Stevenson and some skinny dude who can barely get on the court for the godawful New York Knicks.

The notion that Washington's problems in this series are caused by not having Jared Jeffries is too preposterous to even be funny. It's just weird. As in, "have you had your skull checked for cracks?" weird.

^^^ Do you guys work for Abe Pollin? It's no secret that money cures a lot of woes. It limits barriers to certain moves (i.e. "We should not trade Etan Thomas because he has trade kicker) and it also makes other ones happens ("Let's buy Phoenix's late first round pick and draft Rudy Fernandez or let's fire Eddie Jordan and give Phil Jackson whatever he wants to come here)

I'm not disagreeing with you that guys like Jarred Jeffries (and Larry Hughes) are overpaid. But if the Wizards were supposedly making revenue with a luxury tax, would it be the biggest travesty? And if the Wizards start going deep consistently in the playoffs, their franchise could be a lot more given the demographics and wealth around the community.

NY knows how to shell out money, and they did it for JJ....they are worse than us.