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http://www.realgm.com/src_goaltending/1 ... a_fallacy/

I'm not sure I agree. This season saw us loose some players. Our style of play did change because of that, and we did become a slower team. When we were at full strength, our defense showed some improvement. When GA went down, it took a few games to adjust, but we did play some good D. And then we relapsed to the old D... With a healthy team, we should have better D...not great D, but definitely better than the year before.

Kev's article says what I might concur with in these words: Hell no, the defense did NOT get better! They played slower and so did their opponents, thus fewer points against. At the same time the offense wasn't as good.

I think it was MUCH BETTER up until around January, when Butler first got injured.

Up until that point I believe the pace had to be higher, the offense and defense both were better IMO.

Yeah, the defense was pretty solid until January. It was flat out pathetic thereafter. At midseason, we ranked 19th in defense IIRC. If we fell all the way to 24th over the last two months, that means we had to be playing the worst defense in the league during that stretch.

One problem with our D is that it is actually much worse than it looks. The philosphy of "protecting the paint" reduced the number of layups and easy post ups that make poor defense look obvious. Instead, we looked like a team that was merely the unfortunate victims of opposing teams who were "hot" from 3-point range. But when opposing teams are always hot from 3-point range, it's time to evaluate the defensive strategy. We weren't unlucky. We were just bad.

As nate points out, the Wiz defense was about average until late January. After they beat Dallas on January 21, they had a defensive rating of 105.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. I don't have the ranking for that date, but my guess is that it would have been right about average on that date. That was the 39th game of the season.

From that point to the end of year, the Wiz allowed 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks had the league's worst defense this season -- they allowed 112.8 pts per 100 possessions.

During that stretch, the Wiz allowed opponents an efg of .533. This is a staggeringly bad number. Last season's horrible defense allowed opponents to shoot .517 (efg).

The basic issue, though, is that improvement for a period does not equal meaningful improvement -- especially if it's followed by a serious regression.

TheSecretWeapon wrote:As nate points out, the Wiz defense was about average until late January. After they beat Dallas on January 21, they had a defensive rating of 105.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. I don't have the ranking for that date, but my guess is that it would have been right about average on that date. That was the 39th game of the season.

From that point to the end of year, the Wiz allowed 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks had the league's worst defense this season -- they allowed 112.8 pts per 100 possessions.

During that stretch, the Wiz allowed opponents an efg of .533. This is a staggeringly bad number. Last season's horrible defense allowed opponents to shoot .517 (efg).

The basic issue, though, is that improvement for a period does not equal meaningful improvement -- especially if it's followed by a serious regression.

So you're the GM of the Wiz, Kev. What do you do? Do you conclude that this coaching staff can't improve the defense enough and start chopping heads? Do you gut the roster? Do you think that a healthy team is a half decent defensive one?

not to defend our defense because I do believe it could have
been a lot better (and I especially agree with Nate's point
that when the other team is ALWAYS hot/lucky from downtown,
it's not them, it's us)...

but wasn't our early (first half) schedule much easier than
our 2nd half schedule. Our defense may well have gotten worse
but we were also playing better teams which probably amplified
the effect.

edit to add - nice column Kev

For once, no one can blame **** on Gilbert because he had nothing to do with that. Nice article.

And let's not try and hide the truth - the reason this team plays the "protect the paint" philosophy is because Jamison can't guard neither his own defensive assignment nor the paint. He doesn't block shots and he doesn't even take charges. He is useless defensively and that is why the Wizards continually get raped on defense.

If they want to get actually improve their defense, they're going to have to find a way to reduce opponent shooting percentages. That will mean defending the three point line. This season, the Wizards allowed 683 three point field goals -- the most allowed by a team in league history.

At least the defense is setting records...

There are two people we know not to blame to here:

Eddie Jordan who's super-smart and Antawn MF'ing Jamison who's super-tough.

A coach that is beloved by the players and a player that's widely respected and a leader of men.

Whatever we do, don't blame Eddie and don't blame our locker room leader. If you do, its considered blasphemy and one must question your authenticity as a Wizards fan.

Now if you want to blame Gilbert, go right ahead. Because he's self-centered, has a big mouth, is a shot-jacker and blogs waaay too much. Plus he's a bit nutty and he's gotten paid a huge salary for doing nothing the last year & a half...plus always he's always bitching about his knee.

Antawn's defense was the most improved on the team, IMO.

I saw him block James and saw him muscle at times much larger players. I can't forget who it was one game but Jamison got real physical and it shocked me. Also, all season long Antawn hit the boards as well or better than ever and at least early in the season he made a very noticeably different effort to play better defense.

That speaks VOLUMES for a guy who's been in the league over 10 years.

All Jamison managed to do is have at or near the best on/off +/- ratings in the league.

THE PROBLEMS as I see them are the coaching kept playing the man too many minutes and at the wrong position at times. He got worn down by larger PFs, especially late in the game. Antawn's other problem was Tough Juice kept breaking down physically. Many times after January teams were able to key on Jamison alone, with both Arenas and Butler on the shelf. I would guess Jamison's defense went from decent to pure crap sometime around the time Butler got hurt.

Dat, I blame the Wizards defensive scheme, coaching, personnel, injuries, and their unwillingness to try Jamison at SF and Butler at SG.

That's why the defense sucks. A whole host of reasons.

Did we get better?

As solja boy would say...

Ya trick, Ya!

Dat2U wrote:

Eddie Jordan who's super-smart and Antawn MF'ing Jamison who's super-tough.

I blame EJ for everything! However don't you dare talk about AMFJ that way. Besides can't really blame our pf entirely for allowing the other team guards to line up for 3 point shooting practice.

Hard to believe a team with one of the better perimeter defenders (Stevenson) can give up the most 3-pointers in NBA History.

I'm not putting full blame on him, because defense is a team concept, and no one person can completely change that. But it just seems odd, to me.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Dat, I blame the Wizards defensive scheme, coaching, personnel, injuries, and their unwillingness to try Jamison at SF and Butler at SG.

I think that would lead to a whole host of problems as well. Butler I believe is too slow to guard most SGs, same with Jamison on most SFs. A triumvirate of Jamison, Butler & Arenas on the perimeter will be even more problematic with respect to breakdowns in rotations and failing to close out on shooters.

We may be able to avoid using a strategy of 'crowding the paint' with Blatche or another PF beside Haywood, but I would expect our defense to hemorrhage when it comes to allowing dribble penetration.

The biggest problem is our big three stink as defenders. Jamison was marginally better this past year, but honestly he couldn't have done much worse in previous seasons. Finally, when it came down to the most important defensive possession of the season, he failed to rotate out on Delonte West at the end of the game four who made a shot to bury the Wizards.

Jamison's presence alone creates a domino effect in terms of the coaching staff needing to find ways to compensate for his shortcomings defensively. As has been mentioned I believe the whole failed strategy behind 'crowding the paint' is a result of an undersized Jamison providing no real defensive presence at the four.

Problem is, you stick Jamison at SF and move Caron to SG, you'd be just trading in one problem for another.

I think the first half of the season shows that the team is capable of playing close-to-average defense. The problem was injuries and fatigue. Part of that is on EJ for taking too long to trust his bench. But part of it is bad luck (or a predictable tendency for injuries, however you want to look at it). Once Butler went down and AD got hobbled, Jamison was forced to exhaust himself on offense leaving Haywood and Stevenson had to guard 5 players.

If (and it's a big if) Arenas can commit himself to play defense every possession while also playing smarter defense in general, there's a good chance that the team defense will be okay next year.

I liked what Arenas did defensively in the playoffs - at least with respect to his on-the-ball harassment of Delonte West. If he can do that while also avoiding his usual ball-watching habits, he should be decent defensively.

Stevenson was a very good defender before the ankle problems.

Butler played good defense in spurts before injuries caught up with him. I'd really like to see Butler's minutes curtailed to 32-34 a game. He just can't handle more minutes without breaking down. If EJ keeps his minutes down, Butler should hold his own defensively.

Jamison's defense was a quantum leap better than in past years. He's still not good, but he played well enough to not be a liability. It would be nice to see him step up and take a charge now and then.

Haywood was terrific defensively except his defensive board work tailed off in the second half of the season.

nate33 wrote:I think the first half of the season shows that the team is capable of playing close-to-average defense. The problem was injuries and fatigue. Part of that is on EJ for taking too long to trust his bench. But part of it is bad luck (or a predictable tendency for injuries, however you want to look at it). Once Butler went down and AD got hobbled, Jamison was forced to exhaust himself on offense leaving Haywood and Stevenson had to guard 5 players.

If (and it's a big if) Arenas can commit himself to play defense every possession while also playing smarter defense in general, there's a good chance that the team defense will be okay next year.

I liked what Arenas did defensively in the playoffs - at least with respect to his on-the-ball harassment of Delonte West. If he can do that while also avoiding his usual ball-watching habits, he should be decent defensively.

Stevenson was a very good defender before the ankle problems.

Butler played good defense in spurts before injuries caught up with him. I'd really like to see Butler's minutes curtailed to 32-34 a game. He just can't handle more minutes without breaking down. If EJ keeps his minutes down, Butler should hold his own defensively.

Jamison's defense was a quantum leap better than in past years. He's still not good, but he played well enough to not be a liability. It would be nice to see him step up and take a charge now and then.

Haywood was terrific defensively except his defensive board work tailed off in the second half of the season.

TO me, more Blatche, N1, and McGuire will improve the defense next year. All are very long for their positions. Length, IMO, is the #1 attribute for a good defender. N1 has freakishly long arms.

Dat2U wrote:I think that would lead to a whole host of problems as well. Butler I believe is too slow to guard most SGs, same with Jamison on most SFs. A triumvirate of Jamison, Butler & Arenas on the perimeter will be even more problematic with respect to breakdowns in rotations and failing to close out on shooters.

We may be able to avoid using a strategy of 'crowding the paint' with Blatche or another PF beside Haywood, but I would expect our defense to hemorrhage when it comes to allowing dribble penetration.

The biggest problem is our big three stink as defenders. Jamison was marginally better this past year, but honestly he couldn't have done much worse in previous seasons. Finally, when it came down to the most important defensive possession of the season, he failed to rotate out on Delonte West at the end of the game four who made a shot to bury the Wizards.

Jamison's presence alone creates a domino effect in terms of the coaching staff needing to find ways to compensate for his shortcomings defensively. As has been mentioned I believe the whole failed strategy behind 'crowding the paint' is a result of an undersized Jamison providing no real defensive presence at the four.

Problem is, you stick Jamison at SF and move Caron to SG, you'd be just trading in one problem for another.

Dat, there's no disputing new problems to some extent would arise due to Jamison and Butler not being quick at SF and SG, respectively.

My thought would be to go to that lineup in the fourth quarter, in a halfcourt game because the rebounding would make up for a multitude of problems. The layups and second chance points would increase. Opponents would be hard pressed to stop the Wizards inside.

I think the perimeter defense would be better than it is now. No more over-rotating and giving up WIDE OPEN threes. Jamison and Butler might be slow to rotate, but their length would allow them to contest shots one-on-one much better. Their opponents would get posted up left and right, and probably wouldn't be offensively explosive.

I think rebounding and playing straight up on the perimeter would more than make up for problems Jamison or Butler might have on the perimeter.

As far as dribble penetration, don't forget Blatche with Haywood provides a weakside shotblocker in addition to Haywood. Wizards might have foul problems, but I doubt they give up many points in the paint and I really don't see draw and kick working when Haywood and Blatche are keeping everything out of the lane.

mhd put it simplest: Lengthy is the best attribute for a defender. A bigger lineup's going to even defend the perimeter better.

TheSecretWeapon wrote:As nate points out, the Wiz defense was about average until late January. After they beat Dallas on January 21, they had a defensive rating of 105.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. I don't have the ranking for that date, but my guess is that it would have been right about average on that date. That was the 39th game of the season.
From that point to the end of year, the Wiz allowed 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks had the league's worst defense this season -- they allowed 112.8 pts per 100 possessions.

During that stretch, the Wiz allowed opponents an efg of .533. This is a staggeringly bad number. Last season's horrible defense allowed opponents to shoot .517 (efg).

The basic issue, though, is that improvement for a period does not equal meaningful improvement -- especially if it's followed by a serious regression.

Anyone else think this team quit listening to the coach halfway thru the season?

My hope is that they just got hurt and fell apart in the 2nd half. That the first 39 games is more indicative of what they're capable of doing on the defensive end. I don't think they stopped listening to the coaches.

TheSecretWeapon wrote:My hope is that they just got hurt and fell apart in the 2nd half. That the first 39 games is more indicative of what they're capable of doing on the defensive end. I don't think they stopped listening to the coaches.

the only person that got better was haywood and blatche with their increased defensive awareness and stopping dribble penetration. Our poor perimeter defenders with their lack of length easily allowed the most 3pts on any contending playoff team. Butler, AD, and Jamison are probably the worst perimeter defenders at staying in front of their man and stopping penetration. They play so far off their man because of their lack of lateral acceleration that they give up wide open 3pts. None of our perimeter players has outstanding length to compensate for their lack of lateral acceleration which is a long lasting flaw that won't be corrected with schemes.
I guess this is where dominic, young and our future super quick bench playing defensive point guard signed to a good contract come into play.

Dat2U wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I think that would lead to a whole host of problems as well. Butler I believe is too slow to guard most SGs, same with Jamison on most SFs. A triumvirate of Jamison, Butler & Arenas on the perimeter will be even more problematic with respect to breakdowns in rotations and failing to close out on shooters.

We may be able to avoid using a strategy of 'crowding the paint' with Blatche or another PF beside Haywood, but I would expect our defense to hemorrhage when it comes to allowing dribble penetration.

The biggest problem is our big three stink as defenders. Jamison was marginally better this past year, but honestly he couldn't have done much worse in previous seasons. Finally, when it came down to the most important defensive possession of the season, he failed to rotate out on Delonte West at the end of the game four who made a shot to bury the Wizards.

Jamison's presence alone creates a domino effect in terms of the coaching staff needing to find ways to compensate for his shortcomings defensively. As has been mentioned I believe the whole failed strategy behind 'crowding the paint' is a result of an undersized Jamison providing no real defensive presence at the four.

Problem is, you stick Jamison at SF and move Caron to SG, you'd be just trading in one problem for another.

Except for, you could be wrong.

We know what AJ at PF gets us. We have seen it for many years.

We don't know what the other would get us. Some of us think it would be better. I would just like to see it tried since we know the other doesn't work. At a min you get better D with AB and BH. Along with more height at SF and SG. There is a good chance it would work. I think you sell CB way short. Him and GA at PG and SG could at a min create a frenzy of steals. I'm sure they could set people up like GA and Hughes did.

Plus CB was is a great assist player so that works well when GA isn't. Plus CB added the 3 ball this year.

If I was to invest time in something with the most upside, it would be this over what we have been doing. Then the following year you have more options as NY would be ready to start.