John Hollinger wrote:Are the Wizards any better off by re-signing their stars?
In three seasons with the trio of Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, the Wizards have won 43, 41 and 42 games and haven't made it past the first round of the playoffs. The three players are 26, 28 and 32, respectively, so it seems likely that we've seen about the best we're going to get from them. They're an average team, and without an infusion of vastly better players around them, they'll keep being an average team.
Yet instead of blowing that trio up, the Wizards took a Bob-Beamonesque leap of faith this week. First they extended Jamison for four years and $50 million, and then they offered Arenas a monstrous six-year, $127 million package. Given that Arenas is coming off a major knee injury that kept him sidelined nearly all of last season and is heavily dependant on his quickness to be an elite scorer, his offer in particular appears to be a reach.
Washington is committing to these two for another half-decade and, in the process, tying up most of its salary flexibility. If either's numbers plummet, his contract will make him nigh untradeable, except in exchange for somebody else's flotsam. For better or for worse, the Wizards are stuck with these guys.
The Wizards' alternate reality was letting both go in free agency and using what would have been a big chunk of cap space to try to remake the team around Butler -- their best player this past season and the least expensive of the three going forward -- and whomever else they could have signed. At worst, it seems they would have come away with Maggette, and their cap situation would have been far better over the next five seasons -- in fact, they might have been able to get into the LeBron bidding in 2010; James recently named Washington, D.C., as one of his favorite cities.
One can take a glass-half-full approach and say the likes of Andray Blatche (22), Nick Young (22), Oleksiy Pecherov (23) and JaVale McGee (20) give the Wizards hope that help is on the way for their high-scoring trio. On the other hand, almost every team in the league can make the "maybe our young guys will turn out to be awesome" argument, and in Washington's case, Blatche is the only one of the four who was any good last season.
If Arenas is healthy, and the kids are better, and the team improves on defense, and none of the veterans fall off … then maybe the Wizards will push into the mid- to high 40s in wins and grab a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the East. Is that the upside they're investing close to $180 million in over the next half-decade? It sure seems to me the fear of losing out on big-name stars caused Washington to miss out on a fantastic opportunity to remake its roster.
My emailed response:
John,
I always enjoy your analysis. As a Wizards fan, I find your take on their offseason both ironic and encouraging.
You boldly predicted a precipitous dropoff in Caron Butler's production before last season; now you suggest rebuilding around him. You were wrong about Caron last year, and I think you're wrong about the Wizards now.
While Gilbert was offered the max, it's still very unclear as to how much he'll sign for. Signs point to him leaving ownership with some salary flexibility for future acquisitions.
They've been horribly unlucky with injuries the past two seasons. With a season of relatively good health (and the return of Etan Thomas, who is a serviceable backup center), there's reason to believe they'll eclipse 50 wins. You know they'll be among the league's elite in offensive efficiency (they always have been when healthy under Eddie Jordan). At the halfway point last year, they were above average in defensive efficiency -- only to have a catastrophic fall-off when they team was besieged by further injuries. When healthy (again, the key) the roster is pretty deep; they can void running their starters into the ground.
While re-signing Arenas and Jamison will exclude the Wizards from the free agency party of the 2010 offseason, they will be in a position to make a big trade sometime between a year from now and the subsequent trade deadline. They'll have sizable expiring contracts (Antonio Daniels, Etan Thomas, and a bevy of young, cheap players with potential (Blatche, Young, McGee, Pecherov) that they'll be able to combine to bring in another key piece. It's obviously too early to tell who will be on the market, but we know teams will be looking to either unload veterans to get under the cap, or get something in return for looming free agents who are likely to leave (perhaps Kirilenko, Jermaine O'neal, etc.)
John, keep up the good fight. Perhaps one day before too long, the media will start recognizing offensive and defensive efficiency and stop relying on metrics like PPG that don't account for pace.
In the meantime, just as Caron surprised you this year, prepare to be surprised by the Wizards success over the next couple of seasons.
Thanks,
Fish
