Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz

[Ji]

Best case:

We finish 23-59 and win the NBA lottery. Gil comes back in January and after a slow start starts to show his game again. Averages 30 points a game in April. Andre Blatche averages a double double in the 2nd half of the season and becomes our starting power forward. Etan gets off to a decent start and we are able to trade him. Nick Young takes over for Deshawn and averages 14 pts a game in 2nd half of season. Javale McGee makes 1st NBA rookie team as he surprises everyone.

Worst case

We are about 5-6 games below .500 when Gil comes back. He leads us to a 39-43 record and we lose in the 1st round to Cleveland with everyone healthy. Gil is a shell of his form self even at 100%. Caron gets hurt again and kills his market value. Eddie Plays small ball and overuses Songalia at the expense of developing other players. Antonio Daniels can no longer get to the hole making him worthless. Andre Blatche gets arrested and shows that he is only a great player in summer league

[nate33]

Best case:
Haywood is only out 4 months and Arenas is nearly 100% by January. The Wizards hang on through November and December and stay within 5 games of .500. They do so because Blatche, Young and McGee step up and prove themselves. They surge in the 2nd half when Arenas and then Haywood rejoin the team and end up as a 4-6 seed and fully healthy by the playoffs. They defeat their first round matchup and go on to make a strong showing in the 2nd round.

Next best case:
They tank but Etan plays well enough to be traded. The youngsters step up and play well. They end up with a high lotto pick and no luxtax concerns next summer.

Worst case.
They sustain more nagging injuries but fight hard enough to finish with 35-39 wins - just missing the playoffs. They do so by riding their veterans because none of the youngsters break out. They get no lotto pick and no cap room from trading Etan. No significant changes are made next summer because of they way they fought and scrapped for those 39 wins.

[doclinkin]

The worst case is always career ending injuries, or worse, you know, the apocalypse.

There are dozens of best case scenarios, but I'll reserve 'em for the Optimism thread so as not to feed the JI-nx.

[MJG]

I think nate pretty much nailed it, right down to there being a Best Case 1 and 1A, depending on how early and how healthy Arenas and Haywood can come back.

Maybe I'm just be being pessimistic, but I think the worst case is the most likely sounding one. It's just way too easy to picture, considering it's basically what happened last year, only with Haywood swapped out for Etan.

[miller31time]

I think nate pretty much nailed it, right down to there being a Best Case 1 and 1A, depending on how early and how healthy Arenas and Haywood can come back.

Maybe I'm just be being pessimistic, but I think the worst case is the most likely sounding one. It's just way too easy to picture, considering it's basically what happened last year, only with Haywood swapped out for Etan.

Yup. I think the loss of Haywood subtracts around 5-7 wins from our record, and considering we're probably going to be facing the same injury situation as last year (maybe a bit better with Gil, hopefully, coming back earlier), I think you can expect around 38 wins, with the Wizards just missing the playoffs despite never giving up, and being much worse off for our determined spirit.

[LyricalRico]

Best Case - the team barely makes 8th seed and gets swept by Boston

Worst Case - no playoffs, EJ overplays the vets so the kiddies don't grow any

The only thing is that if my "worst case" means that Etan/AD/Songaila raise their value and EJ gets fired, that could actually end up being the "best case". I would gladly trade another first round exit for that scenario.

[Joe_Wiz]

Best case:
Haywood is only out 4 months and Arenas is nearly 100% by January. The Wizards hang on through November and December and stay within 5 games of .500. They do so because Blatche, Young and McGee step up and prove themselves. They surge in the 2nd half when Arenas and then Haywood rejoin the team and end up as a 4-6 seed and fully healthy by the playoffs. They defeat their first round matchup and go on to make a strong showing in the 2nd round.

Next best case:
They tank but Etan plays well enough to be traded. The youngsters step up and play well. They end up with a high lotto pick and no luxtax concerns next summer.

Worst case.
They sustain more nagging injuries but fight hard enough to finish with 35-39 wins - just missing the playoffs. They do so by riding their veterans because none of the youngsters break out. They get no lotto pick and no cap room from trading Etan. No significant changes are made next summer because of they way they fought and scrapped for those 39 wins.

I'm mostly with Nate, but for the best case, I'd have them at .500 at the midpoint, a 3-4 seed in the playoffs, and winning it all. It's highly improbable, but I don't think it's one-in-a-million level improbable. It would be naive to expect the scenario we dreamed about last year with Gilbert returning and the team clicking on all cylinders, but it's not quite as improbable as it seems in the guts of us jaded Wizards fans.

For the next best case, we might as well just barely miss the playoffs and get the #1 pick (it happened to San Antonio).

For the worst case, as doc points out, it could get very, very bad. But my worst-case-without-sinking-into-despair would be as per Nate + players and coaching staff bickering and finger-pointing.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Best case - EFJ plays the kiddies a lot and whatever our record is our record.

Worst case - EFJ rides the veterans to death and whatever our record is our record.

Going by past history, the worst case seems a lot more likely which is why I am totally unexcited for this season. EFJ stinks at player development.

[nate33]

EFJ stinks at player development.

I don't think that's fair. You can't squeeze blood from a stone. Sometimes players just suck and it has nothing to do with coaching. Honestly, who have we had for EJ to develop? Has anybody left here and blown up elsewhere?

- Kwame was a bust and has proven that he can't be developed anywhere. Indeed, his best year was under EJ.
- Jeffries was a useful role player here and has been a bust in New York.
- Dixon had his best years here.
- Mason developed well here.
- Blake showed signs of development here but left before he came into his own. I don't think EJ held him back though. A man named Gilbert Arenas held Blake back.
- Deshawn Stevenson has developed here.
- Blatche is developing pretty well here judging by his significant jump in PER in each of his 3 seasons.

The only guy whom you can argue that EJ didn't develop was Jarvis Hayes. Hayes had his best season as soon as he left Washington. But even that isn't really EJ's fault. God knows EJ gave Hayes all the minutes he deserved and then some.

The jury is out on Young, Pecherov and McGuire.

[W. Unseld]

Interesting points on EJ development Nate, I never thought about it that way.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Worst case scenario: Arenas rushes his rehab, comes back too early and suffers a career ending injury. Jamison ruptures an achilles tendon. McGee and Blatche are out partying at a rave out in a field somewhere and are abducted by aliens and replaced by pod people (so no cap relief).

Best case scenario: Well, there is no best case scenario. Nobody dies I guess.

[LyricalRico]

- Kwame was a bust and has proven that he can't be developed anywhere. Indeed, his best year was under EJ.
- Jeffries was a useful role player here and has been a bust in New York.
- Dixon had his best years here.
- Mason developed well here.
- Blake showed signs of development here but left before he came into his own. I don't think EJ held him back though. A man named Gilbert Arenas held Blake back.
- Deshawn Stevenson has developed here.
- Blatche is developing pretty well here judging by his significant jump in PER in each of his 3 seasons.

The only guy whom you can argue that EJ didn't develop was Jarvis Hayes. Hayes had his best season as soon as he left Washington. But even that isn't really EJ's fault. God knows EJ gave Hayes all the minutes he deserved and then some.

As the original member of the WizBoard Dirty Thirty I feel compelled to play advocate here.

- I would say that Kwame's first year in LA was his best year but I don't have stats to back it up.

- Jeffries was far from useful as a perimeter player, where EJ played him the most. I thought that JJ's best stretches were during EJ's first year here when he was forced into the starting PF job because of injury and then when he was forced to play C in his last year here because of injuries. I think that EJ missed the boat on developing JJ as a big and wasted his time trying to make him into a multipurpose wing player.

- I actually thought Dixon's best year from a role perspective was his rookie year under Collins/MJ when he was a situational pit-bull defender against PGs (I recall him having like 6 steals in one game against Indy) who could hit from three if he was open. As a 6th man gunner type Juan was hit or miss so I don't think you can really say that EJ "developed" him.

- I'll give you RMJ, although you could make the point that Mason actually developed overseas and was primed for a breakout after finally realizing that his ticket in the NBA was defense and outside shooting rather than trying to be a point guard.

- I don't see Blake helping or hurting EJ's record so I won't go into it.

- Stevenson really didn't "develop" IMO until he became a reliable 3pt shooter and that didn't happen until Hopla came here. Heck, half the board was screaming for us to let him walk after his first year here and most all of us would agree that he's a below average player. I don't see him as a feather in EJ's cap either.

- Blatche is an interesting case. Yes, he has steadily improved since he first joined the team. But has he truly improved in the ways that will make him a really good or even great player? He still tries to play like a wing player and EJ's recent comments about matching Dray up with guys like LeBron seem to indicate that the coaches are encouraging that at least somewhat. Blatche's future clearly is not on the perimeter and, although he has enough talent to at least be decent wherever you play him, until he is coached to be a "foul line and down" type of player IMO he'll never reach his full potential. I don't see EJ doing that.

- Hayes is another interesting case because many here (including you, nate) actually thought he was a decent player. Even I agreed that if he was used exclusively as a big guard to defend and hit open shots he'd be a serviceable NBA player. Well, that's exactly what happend in Detroit. They played him in a way that maximized his value. EJ didn't do that. Just because EJ gave him minutes doesn't mean he "developed" him. Playing Hayes at PF wasn't going to bring out the best in him and that's a mistake that EJ made night in and night out for several years.

Looking back at my post, there's a theme that's repeated in almost every example - the main problem with EJ's development (or lack thereof) of young players is that he doesn't put them in the best position to succeed. I've always said that EJ is too "smart" for his own good in that he approaches lineups with a mad scientist mentality of mixing and matching things until he finds a breakthrough.

The problem with that is that truly multi-purpose players are pretty rare. Just because a guy can dribble well doesn't mean he can be a point forward. And just because a guard is stronger than most other guys his size doesn't mean it's a good idea to put him in the post against bigger players. But EJ is hell bent on creating these wacky combinations rather than traditional lineups to IMO prove how much "smarter" he is than everybody else. And I think it ends up holding young players back because they never find the role that's right for them. Either the role is always changing or EJ is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

[JWizmentality]

We're already living the worst case scenario. It couldn't possibly get any worse??






Why is everybody looking at me like that???

[doclinkin]

EFJ stinks at player development.

I don't think that's fair. You can't squeeze blood from a stone. Sometimes players just suck and it has nothing to do with coaching. Honestly, who have we had for EJ to develop? Has anybody left here and blown up elsewhere?

I've said it for years.

Consider also the development of talented players:

Caron Butler has improved in almost every category, assumed the mantle of team leader where in the past he deferred to team superstars and even diminished playing next to them. A first-time allstar in the system and under the coach.

Larry Hughes had his career best performances here, after never finding a comfortable role under any other coach or offense.

Antawn Jamison also became a team leader, and while his stats remained equivalent, he actually improved his passer ratings here. The team leadership angle is key. First time allstar.

And when you look at Gil's sometimes erratic performance pre-DC , he no longer leads the league in technical fouls and while he's eschewed the leadership role when asked, he works with and challenges the younger players to follow his workout dedication more than his public antics. You can goof like him if you can outwork him. And pre-injury he was clearly on the ascent, improving every year. Another first time all-star.

I doubt there's another coach int he league with as many 1st-time allstars to their record. Now you can argue all you want that they only reached that level in the weakened East, and they would have gotten better anyway. The facts remain, the Coach didn't prevent them from reaching that peak, didn't get in the way. In fact I'd submit those Allstar nods show clearly they are maximizing their potential here. When you check their performance in that all-star game (and in the Olympics for Gil + Tawn) you see they come up short against the competition. The other players on court were better than them on raw talent -- but here and in this system, they became allstars.

We'll see how the young talent develops. They'll have to get better really quickly if this team is going to surprise anyone in a positive way this year.

[BigA]

I'm a little surprised at Nate and Lyrical's characterization of Jarvis's year in Detroit as a significant improvement or breakout compared with what he did in DC. He did get a 2 year deal with the Nets for the LLE, but compare that with what Roger Mason got from the Spurs.

Also, did Jarvis really play a significant amount of time at PF over several years? IIRC he only had 3 healthy years here, his first two and his last, and his PF time in 06-07 was a stopgap when some combination of Jamison, Songaila or Butler were hurt. I don't recall him playing any PF before that.

[Dat2U]

EFJ stinks at player development.

I don't think that's fair. You can't squeeze blood from a stone. Sometimes players just suck and it has nothing to do with coaching. Honestly, who have we had for EJ to develop? Has anybody left here and blown up elsewhere?

I've said it for years.

Consider also the development of talented players:

Caron Butler has improved in almost every category, assumed the mantle of team leader where in the past he deferred to team superstars and even diminished playing next to them. A first-time allstar in the system and under the coach.

Larry Hughes had his career best performances here, after never finding a comfortable role under any other coach or offense.

Antawn Jamison also became a team leader, and while his stats remained equivalent, he actually improved his passer ratings here. The team leadership angle is key. First time allstar.

And when you look at Gil's sometimes erratic performance pre-DC , he no longer leads the league in technical fouls and while he's eschewed the leadership role when asked, he works with and challenges the younger players to follow his workout dedication more than his public antics. You can goof like him if you can outwork him. And pre-injury he was clearly on the ascent, improving every year. Another first time all-star.

I doubt there's another coach int he league with as many 1st-time allstars to their record. Now you can argue all you want that they only reached that level in the weakened East, and they would have gotten better anyway. The facts remain, the Coach didn't prevent them from reaching that peak, didn't get in the way. In fact I'd submit those Allstar nods show clearly they are maximizing their potential here. When you check their performance in that all-star game (and in the Olympics for Gil + Tawn) you see they come up short against the competition. The other players on court were better than them on raw talent -- but here and in this system, they became allstars.

We'll see how the young talent develops. They'll have to get better really quickly if this team is going to surprise anyone in a positive way this year.

How come when we talk about how EJ has developed his players it always seems to focus on the offense?

Too bad the NBA doesn't play games on just one end of the court. But digress, we know its only about one thing for you EJ fanboys, offense rules!!!

As for EJ's offense. It's like a one-size fits all theory. If your a perimeter player, or a player with perimeter skills, or one that thinks he has perimeter skills (see O-Face & Dray), then you have free reign to do whatever you want with the ball in your hands. JJ liked to get scared and fumble the ball away. Juan liked to dribble a hole into the ground and jack up shots. Arvis liked to brick turnaround fadeways and leaners from 15 ft and out. Steve Blake became less a true PG and more of a spot up shooter before he left for Portland. Roger Mason always had the ability to shoot, but never had the time or opportunity to develop the confidence until injuries forced EJ to play him relatively consistent minutes.

Jamison went from a great team player in Dallas who could score without the ball or having one play run for him all game to a volume scorer free to jack up shots whether hot or cold.

Arenas was a immature stud with questionable shot selection who became an all-star with questionable shot selection. But his work ethic was without question. He got better because he did nothing but practice and hone his skills.

Caron became an all-star, mostly because of his own work ethic which also goes unquestioned. EJ's offense allows him the freedom and touches to show his developing skillset.

Larry played the best ball of his career because of the freedom he was allowed in EJ's perimeter dominated offense. Larry never had that type of freedom eslewhere and his ball-handling & slashing ability was a good match with Gil. But even still Larry was never a particularly efficient offensive player.

Bottom line, EJ allows a ton a freedom for perimeter oriented guys to exploit their offensive gifts. If you have a shred of NBA talent, you ought to be able to put up respectable numbers because you'll have plenty of opportunities to handle to rock and put up shots. If that's considered development then yes, EJ is damn good at developing talent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

EFJ stinks at player development.

I don't think that's fair. You can't squeeze blood from a stone. Sometimes players just suck and it has nothing to do with coaching. Honestly, who have we had for EJ to develop? Has anybody left here and blown up elsewhere?

- Kwame was a bust and has proven that he can't be developed anywhere. Indeed, his best year was under EJ.
- Jeffries was a useful role player here and has been a bust in New York.
- Dixon had his best years here.
- Mason developed well here.
- Blake showed signs of development here but left before he came into his own. I don't think EJ held him back though. A man named Gilbert Arenas held Blake back.
- Deshawn Stevenson has developed here.
- Blatche is developing pretty well here judging by his significant jump in PER in each of his 3 seasons.

The only guy whom you can argue that EJ didn't develop was Jarvis Hayes. Hayes had his best season as soon as he left Washington. But even that isn't really EJ's fault. God knows EJ gave Hayes all the minutes he deserved and then some.

The jury is out on Young, Pecherov and McGuire.

Good post, nate. Throw in Larry Hughes as a guy who had by far his best years under EJ.

Eddie's strength is player develepment IMO. He's doesn't belittle the young guys the way Larry Brown or Doug Collins do. He let Jamison get the clubhouse in order last season. Eddie was fair but firm with Kwame. EJ might prefer to play his vets but I dont see him ruining young players the way some other coaches do.

Which leads me to my best case scenario: EJ plays the young guys. The young guys bond on the court and play to their full potential. Both Gil and Brendan come back fired up and healthy by mid-February with the Wizards somewhere near .500. Wiz go on a win streak in March/April. EG comes up looking like a genius investing in continuity. Wizards get past the first round of the playoffs ..and the second round with every body healthy.

Not at all likely but I can dream.

Worst case: Etan, AJ, Caron play big minutes and the team still is a 32 or less win team. Gil's never the same again and the Wizards aer stuck with his contract. Brendan opts to stay out all season over a wrist injury and the Wizards trade him. AD keeps getting burned by quick guards, EJ keeps instructing the team to pack it in defensively and the Wizards set new records for defensive futilty ... AND the chemistry begins to suck big time. No playoffs and a cancerous team situation in which Butler wants to leave... I could go on.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How come when we talk about how EJ has developed his players it always seems to focus on the offense?

Too bad the NBA doesn't play games on just one end of the court. But digress, we know its only about one thing for you EJ fanboys, offense rules!!!

As for EJ's offense. It's like a one-size fits all theory. If your a perimeter player, or a player with perimeter skills, or one that thinks he has perimeter skills (see O-Face & Dray), then you have free reign to do whatever you want with the ball in your hands. JJ liked to get scared and fumble the ball away. Juan liked to dribble a hole into the ground and jack up shots. Arvis liked to brick turnaround fadeways and leaners from 15 ft and out. Steve Blake became less a true PG and more of a spot up shooter before he left for Portland. Roger Mason always had the ability to shoot, but never had the time or opportunity to develop the confidence until injuries forced EJ to play him relatively consistent minutes.

Jamison went from a great team player in Dallas who could score without the ball or having one play run for him all game to a volume scorer free to jack up shots whether hot or cold.

Arenas was a immature stud with questionable shot selection who became an all-star with questionable shot selection. But his work ethic was without question. He got better because he did nothing but practice and hone his skills.

Caron became an all-star, mostly because of his own work ethic which also goes unquestioned. EJ's offense allows him the freedom and touches to show his developing skillset.

Larry played the best ball of his career because of the freedom he was allowed in EJ's perimeter dominated offense. Larry never had that type of freedom eslewhere and his ball-handling & slashing ability was a good match with Gil. But even still Larry was never a particularly efficient offensive player.

Bottom line, EJ allows a ton a freedom for perimeter oriented guys to exploit their offensive gifts. If you have a shred of NBA talent, you ought to be able to put up respectable numbers because you'll have plenty of opportunities to handle to rock and put up shots. If that's considered development then yes, EJ is damn good at developing talent.

I agree 100%, Dat.

[keynote]

How come when we talk about how EJ has developed his players it always seems to focus on the offense?

Too bad the NBA doesn't play games on just one end of the court. But digress, we know its only about one thing for you EJ fanboys, offense rules!!!

As for EJ's offense. It's like a one-size fits all theory. If your a perimeter player, or a player with perimeter skills, or one that thinks he has perimeter skills (see O-Face & Dray), then you have free reign to do whatever you want with the ball in your hands. JJ liked to get scared and fumble the ball away. Juan liked to dribble a hole into the ground and jack up shots. Arvis liked to brick turnaround fadeways and leaners from 15 ft and out. Steve Blake became less a true PG and more of a spot up shooter before he left for Portland. Roger Mason always had the ability to shoot, but never had the time or opportunity to develop the confidence until injuries forced EJ to play him relatively consistent minutes.

Jamison went from a great team player in Dallas who could score without the ball or having one play run for him all game to a volume scorer free to jack up shots whether hot or cold.

Arenas was a immature stud with questionable shot selection who became an all-star with questionable shot selection. But his work ethic was without question. He got better because he did nothing but practice and hone his skills.

Caron became an all-star, mostly because of his own work ethic which also goes unquestioned. EJ's offense allows him the freedom and touches to show his developing skillset.

Larry played the best ball of his career because of the freedom he was allowed in EJ's perimeter dominated offense. Larry never had that type of freedom eslewhere and his ball-handling & slashing ability was a good match with Gil. But even still Larry was never a particularly efficient offensive player.

Bottom line, EJ allows a ton a freedom for perimeter oriented guys to exploit their offensive gifts. If you have a shred of NBA talent, you ought to be able to put up respectable numbers because you'll have plenty of opportunities to handle to rock and put up shots. If that's considered development then yes, EJ is damn good at developing talent.

Church.

[keynote]

"Best Case Scenario":
- Gil's back and 90% by MLK Day.
- Butler puts up All-Star #s.
- Jamison's numbers slip, but his defense improves.
- Blatche lives on the block in the half-court set (and saves his open court ball-handling skills for the transition game).
- Pech's jumper becomes more reliable, and he eats into Songaila's minutes in spot situations.
- Wood comes back by the playoffs.
- McGuire gets bitten by a radioactive spider, and morphs into an Augmon-like defender.
- EJ/Ayers develops a defensive scheme that includes defending the 3 point line.

"Worst Case Scenario":
- EJ/Ayers packs the defense in further in Haywood's absence, thereby allowing opponents to shoot threes with impunity.
- Gil comes back in April at 65%.
- Blatche runs afoul of the law.
- Pesh's scoliosis worsens to the point that he'll be 6'5" by the all-star breaks.
- Haywood comes back in April, is benched in favor of Etan, and sulks his way off the team when his contract expires.
- Butler and Jamison will log heavy minutes, but the Wizards finish 9th.