Boyz II Men: Tracking the WizKids

[fishercob]

So much of the story of this season is about the development of the six Wizards under the age of 24: McGee, Young, Blatche, Pecherov, Crittenton and McGuire. I thought this would be a good place to track their development, talk about what players the remind us of, who their best and worst case scenarios are like, etc.

It's noteworthy that last season's self proclaimed "Future Three," all started tonight. McGuire has really stepped up his game lately and is showing signs of being a worthy rotation player. If he can ever develop a reliable face-up jumper, he could be an elite role player.

His maturity seems to have rubbed off on Blatche, who has come with a lot more focus lately. Hopefully it has the same effect on Young, as the physical part of his game is a lot further a long then the mental.

In time, I expect Critt and McGee to start getting a lot more minutes. Pech not so much. My guess is EG and Tap have all but written him off.

At some point before too long, I think we'll see Critt, Young, McGuire, Blatche, and McGee all on the floor together. That will be fun.

[LyricalRico]

Love the thread title.

McGuire seems to get better game by game and really could be our defensive stopper. Blatche hasn't been as disappointing as usual but I'm still skeptical that it will continue. Nick Young continues to underwhelm and for the life of me I don't know why McGee is in the doghouse.

As far at Crittenton, I don't know what to make of him yet. He just seems lost out there, like he's thinking too much. Honestly I really don't expect to see much from him until next season. This year is all about showcasing Mike James for a possible trade and re-integrating Arenas if/when he comes back.

[fishercob]

Oh man this takes me back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHzkICG47LU

It's going to take time with Critt. He has zero experience in our system, hasn't played with any of our guys, etc.

You just have to love what McGuire's doing right now. He's Spiderman.

[nate33]

McGuire plays like a veteran out there. I have total trust in him. Blatche and Young are more talented, but you have to hold your breath on every possession and hope that they don't make a stupid play.

Blatche is definitely developing some consistency though. He is now an above average backup PF/C and is on his way to being a starting-caliber PF/C.

[hands11]

I logged my break down already here
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=865262&start=120

It's about maturity for these young guns.

Scale of 1-5 1 being best.

I had Blatche and DMAC at 3/2

I think you can squarely but DMAC at a 2 now with Blanche believe it or not, not fair behind. Blatche is the most developed player though.

NY - I have him at a 4. Basket case. He is Tapps biggest maturity project. He scored better tonight but he still plays like an idiot a lot. He should scale it back and play smarter.

McGee is a solid 3. He is mature. He is just inexperienced. I have total faith he will be a baller unlike NY who still worries me. NY is more of GA type. Stubborn.

OP - I don't even have him on my radar.

Critt - To few mins to tell anything. I assume he will show up given what people have said about him.

[miller31time]

McGuire plays like a veteran out there. I have total trust in him. Blatche and Young are more talented, but you have to hold your breath on every possession and hope that they don't make a stupid play.

Blatche is definitely developing some consistency though. He is now an above average backup PF/C and is on his way to being a starting-caliber PF/C.

Has Blatche really played that different or more consistent when starting this season compared to the games he started last year?

I think the kid just needs the security of a starting role.

[hands11]

McGuire plays like a veteran out there. I have total trust in him. Blatche and Young are more talented, but you have to hold your breath on every possession and hope that they don't make a stupid play.

Blatche is definitely developing some consistency though. He is now an above average backup PF/C and is on his way to being a starting-caliber PF/C.

Has Blatche really played that different or more consistent when starting this season compared to the games he started last year?

I think the kid just needs the security of a starting role.

Biggest difference with Blatche starting now is that he has others starting with him. He never started while AJ was healthy because Haywood was center and EFJ would never move AJ to SF and CB to SG. I did a million post asking for this.

This is the first you have seen of AB and AJ or of AB, AJ and CB together.

Last year he started when AJ went down and then a few games in CB went down also. I think it was like 7-10 games total. Then when they got healthy, EFJ sent him to the bench and he got erratic minutes again after that. You know. EFJ coached team. Man that guy was an idiot.

I hope AB is securing his starting statue so Tapps makes the adjustment around that so we can get him on the floor with more quality players.

BH, AB, AJ, CB, GA

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Well, that's a good point. When Blatche starts he is option 3 or 4 and he can relax and play his role. When he comes in off the bench he feels it is his job to be a "spark" and he ends up pressing, trying to be too fancy, making turnovers, committing stupid fouls...

[jimij]

I'm not sure if its a case of him needing to "start" so much as to know that he will get consistent minutes. As soon as EFJ was fired, Blatche minutes and overall level of play both seemed to increase significantly but its only recently that he's become a starter. Even coming off the bench for Taps, Blatche seemed to realize that he would get PT (as long as he wasn't in foul trouble) so he was able to play a lot looser and more confidently.

Last year the only time he felt secure was as a starter because he knew there were no other options for EFJ b/c of injuries.

Even if he were to return to the bench, he should be okay as long as he gets consitent and valuable minutes.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Interesting point. Although Blatche has been starting since the Indiana game on Dec. 15th. In those eight games, he is averaging 12.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists/1.1 tos, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks in 31 minutes on average.

That is starters' quality production right there.

Hm, ok, let's take his numbers as a sub, inflate them to the equivalent number of minutes, hm.

As a sub he shot a higher percentage. All his other numbers are roughly the same, but his assists were lower and his turnovers higher. So as a starter he is making better passes and turning it over less, all his other numbers are about the same, except he doesn't shoot as high a percentage from the field.

[dobrojim]

agree - nice thread title there Fish.

Seeing the kids play and grow gives me some cause to wonder if
continuity won't end up working out OK in the end. DeBrick needs
to be limited to role duty but the WizKids are definitely feeling
more comfortable and making fewer mistakes with the increase
in PT.

And if you don't like the idea of continuity, you still have to
like that we have appreciating assets which are more attractive
trade bait for that one guy that could put us up at the elite level.
After years of seeing us unload potential too early, I'm not unhappy
with the idea of continuity for the time being. That said, in order to
be interesting, and now it seems, competitive too, we gotta actually
play the kids in big enough roles to let them show us why mgmt liked
them well enough to get them in the first place. Also reducing the roles
of Thomas and DeBrick has helped them to re-establish some confidence
in what they actually are able to do, however limited that might be.

[fishercob]

From Wiz Insider:

Tapscott on the kids: "One thing I have to continue to remind myself is that Nick is a second-year player, Dom is a second-year player, Andray is really a third-year player when you consider how much time he lost as a rookie with the injury. Pech is a second-year player. JaVale is a first-year player and Javaris is a second-year player without a whole lot of experience. That's half my roster. All of those guys are playing key positions and getting key minutes at one time or another so what you're seeing is growing pains."

[JWizmentality]

^^^ Ah Tappy can go blow sunshine out his arse. Now that you list all our youth, we really got a promising future. The only ? is Pech.

[nate33]

Posted this in the Blatche thread but I guess it really belongs here:

For what it's worth, here are the pace-adjusted per-36 numbers for the youngsters for last season, this season, and the last 10 games. Actual minutes played are provided in the last column.

Code: Select all

Player                PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
blatche,andray 2007  13.7  9.4  2.0  1.2  2.5  2.5 .512 15.6 20.5
blatche,andray 2008  15.7  8.6  2.7  1.2  1.5  2.6 .519 16.1 22.5
blatche,andray L-10  15.2  8.8  3.3  1.1  1.6  2.0 .530 18.0 27.5

Player                PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
young,nick 2007      18.1  3.7  2.0  1.1  0.2  3.0 .527 11.7 15.4
young,nick 2008      17.1  3.4  2.4  0.6  0.4  1.9 .516 13.2 21.1
young,nick L-10      18.9  3.5  2.3  0.5  0.2  2.1 .553 15.0 21.5

Player                PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
mcguire,dominic 2007  5.0  7.5  2.2  1.1  1.4  2.1 .397  6.8 10.0
mcguire,dominic 2008  6.2  8.5  2.5  0.9  1.6  1.5 .440 10.3 17.3
mcguire,dominic L-10  6.9  7.6  3.6  0.8  1.3  1.7 .463 10.5 29.0

Player                PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
crittenton,java 2007 14.3  5.7  2.6  1.0  0.1  2.8 .499 11.1 13.6
crittenton,java 2008  7.5  5.0  4.0  1.9  0.0  2.7 .387  7.3 10.1
crittenton,java L-10  5.8  4.7  4.4  2.0  0.0  1.7 .377  8.0 16.0

Player                PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
mcgee,javale 2008    14.8  9.2  0.4  1.0  2.6  1.5 .508 16.2 14.3
mcgee,javale L-10    16.4 10.9  0.9  1.8  0.9  0.9 .501 19.7  8.2

You gotta love the progression in PER for everybody except Crittenton (who is learning a new system). You also gotta love the progression in minutes played for everybody except McGee.

The best news of all is that Blatche has been maintaining a PER of 18 in 27.5 minutes a game in the last 10 games as a starter. That, my friends, is starting-caliber production. If Blatche does nothing else except improve his endurance and foul rate enough to play 32-34 minutes a game, he becomes an above-average starting PF/C in this league. (Blatche commits 4.8 fouls per 36 minutes. For comparison, Haywood commits 3.6 fouls per 36. McGee also commits 4.8.)

Some other observations:
- McGuire is steadily improving as a shooter. A .463 TS% is still bad, but he's no longer a complete self-check. If he can get that up to about .490, he'll force opponents to guard him. (Bruce Bowen spent most of his career with a TS% around 51-53%. Jared Jeffries shot .513 and .500 in his last two seasons here.)

- Crittenton's PER has dropped in our system, but his assist rate has nearly doubled with his turnovers dropping dramatically. The kid needs to learn how to shoot, but the rest of his game shows promise. I'd like to see that assist rate rise some more though. 4.4 assists per 36 is still pretty paltry. 6.0 would look a lot better.

- Young's scoring is looking good again thanks to his ridiculous shooting streak over the past two games, but he still does nothing else to fill the box score. The reduction in turnovers along with a mild increase in assists is nice though.

- McGee still produces when given floor time. Going by PER, he looks as good (better in fact) in the last 10 games as he has looked all season. Take his per minute extrapolations over the last 10 with a grain of salt though. The sample size is very small.

[Dat2U]

Here's how I'd rank the WizKids:

1. C Javale McGee - I don't understand for the life of me why E-Tap would let him rack up DNP-CD's as he has. It makes no sense. He produces whenever he's given the time. He makes plenty of mistakes but the wow factor is off the charts. My guess is E-Tap would have done the same thing to Dwight Howard when he was rookie. Not to say he's the next D. Howard, but he's the one young guy we have with legitimate all-star potential. I like the comparison to Tyson Chandler with a bit a face up game, especially if he can develop a passion for rebounding like Tyson has.

2. PF/C Andray Blatche - Mr. Inconsistency still has his moments when he's complete dog but I think we've all noticed his uptick in play once he started getting reliable minutes. I have many doubts about him ever being a star but he starting to show that he's more than capable of being a solid starter in the league. I also worry about paying him big dollars beyond his current deal b/c of his immaturity but for now, I'm content with his progress.

3. SF Dominic McGuire - His jumpshot leaves much to be desired. It's very JJ'esque. But his defense & rebounding add a dimension the Wizards have sorely needed on the perimeter. I think the main reason we've been more competitive recently is solely based on McGuire replacing DeBrick in the starting lineup. If he can further develop his handle, learn how to finish around the basket and make the occassional jump shot then he'd be the ideal complement to Gil & Caron on the perimeter. I rank him ahead of Young based on his ability and willingness to defend & rebound at a relatively high level.

4. SG Nick Young - Young's raw talent & shot-creation ability should have him 2nd on the list but I'm not a fan of his IQ, shot selection & under-utilization of his skills. For all his worldy gifts, he doesn't create shots for others, he doesn't get to the rim enough nor does he get to the foul line. He's basically a fadeaway jumpshooter. Big whoop! I take his 28 pt effort against Chicago with a grain of salt b/c Chicago mailed it the final quarter with such a big lead and allowed layups at the rim with ease. I view Nick as the ideal young guy to trade based on potential, lack of impact & possible return we could get in a trade.

5. Javaris Crittenton - While J-Critt is very athletic and has decent handles he's an absolutely horrific shooter. Just plain miserable. That's a death knell for a guard, especially one who's not a natural PG. I like the fact he can get to the basket but he's going to be nothing more than a very flawed role player until he gets a passable jumper. I'd give him through the 09-10 season to prove his worth but I'm not opposed to trading him or seeing him go. Not sure about trading Memphis' pick back for him, the jury is still out on that one.

6. PF/C Oleksiy Pecherov - Stewie! He should have a nice career...In Europe after his rookie deal ends. He can hit the occassional 3-ball but gives nothing else. Tries to rebound, but doesn't usually suceed. Nice guy, hard worker, but maybe not enough talent. Was a bust of a pick by EG. Has no trade value whatsoever. He's simply roster/trade filler at this point.

Bottom line, If we have to build around our young guys were in deep ****. McGee is the only one that makes others take notice but he can barely get on the court with the current staff. Blatche is on the verge of being a solid starter but his inconsistency & immaturity may limit him from ever reaching his potential. Nick Young is a role playing shot creator who loves to fadeway and doesn't excel at anything else. I have a hard time seeing him be an above average starter in the league. McGuire & J-Critt are role players at best and are both jump shots away from being real assets.

So that's one potential all-star, one solid starter, three role players with major weaknesses and Stewie from Family Guy. That's our future.

Lord help us, we better hope Gil comes back healthy and near 100% of his former self.

[KingDong]

Blatche needs more minutes to be consistent and to consistently grow, but he also needs to mature more i agree. McGee should be thrown into the fire and played every minute possible until he fouls out, well not exactly, but something similar. Just play him as much as possible, gotta develop the young guys and McGee has lots of potential. Sitting at this point is just absurd. When he gets minutes he produces.

[Kanyewest]

My rankings

1. Young
2. McGee
3. Blatche
4. McGuire
5. Crittenton
6. Pech

[dobrojim]

it was nice to see a lineup of McGee/AB/DMac/N1 and Critt for a while tonight.

They seemed to do pretty well.

That's an athletic, long, good rebounding lineup with the one possible weakness
of not enough scorers with N1 being the only real serious offensive threat.
Pretty good defensive quickness out there though. Now they just need an
effective defensive scheme.



That lineup as our bench has serious potential down the road if
what are now vices, don't become habits in time. Simply putting Gil
and Wood in there turns that into what could be a VERY effective
lineup.

As many had suggested/predicted, Critter might be a nice complement to GA
assuming his jumper ever becomes semi-reliable.

[nate33]

it was nice to see a lineup of McGee/AB/DMac/N1 and Critt for a while tonight.

They seemed to do pretty well.

That's an athletic, long, good rebounding lineup with the one possible weakness
of not enough scorers with N1 being the only real serious offensive threat.
Pretty good defensive quickness out there though. Now they just need an
effective defensive scheme.

I'm not enthusiastic about seeing DMac and Crittenton in the game at the same time. If you assume that we'll also have McGee or Haywood at center, that's 3 guys with absolutely no semblance of a perimeter shot. You gotta have at least 3 guys (preferably 4) who can shoot from the perimeter if you want to be able to function offensively in this league.

At this point, I don't think Crittenton is a viable rotation player on a decent team. He can't shoot and he's not really all that great as a set up man either. He's nothing more than a spot role player who can be occassionally called upon to slow down another team's PG for a few minutes. He needs to develop a better shot if he wants to stick around in this league. Fortunately, he just turned 21 two weeks ago. There's plenty of room for improvement.

[mhd]

it was nice to see a lineup of McGee/AB/DMac/N1 and Critt for a while tonight.

They seemed to do pretty well.

That's an athletic, long, good rebounding lineup with the one possible weakness
of not enough scorers with N1 being the only real serious offensive threat.
Pretty good defensive quickness out there though. Now they just need an
effective defensive scheme.

I'm not enthusiastic about seeing DMac and Crittenton in the game at the same time. If you assume that we'll also have McGee or Haywood at center, that's 3 guys with absolutely no semblance of a perimeter shot. You gotta have at least 3 guys (preferably 4) who can shoot from the perimeter if you want to be able to function offensively in this league.

At this point, I don't think Crittenton is a viable rotation player on a decent team. He can't shoot and he's not really all that great as a set up man either. He's nothing more than a spot role player who can be occassionally called upon to slow down another team's PG for a few minutes. He needs to develop a better shot if he wants to stick around in this league. Fortunately, he just turned 21 two weeks ago. There's plenty of room for improvement.

I like the fact that boards exceptionally well for a PG. I think he's an ideal backup for Gil who can come in for 12-15 mpg and play good defense and push the ball.