Measuring Tapscott's performance

[nate33]

Fishercob spoke to WizKev at the last game and Wizkev mentioned that the defense doesn't look any better on Tapscott. Curious, I decided to run the numbers myself.

Under EJ:
Points scored per 100 possessions: 102.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions: 112.6

Under Tapscott:
Points scored per 100 possessions: 104.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions: 111.0

So the defense has improved slightly under Tankscott, and the offense has improved slightly as well. And it's worth noting that we played a pretty easy schedule under EJ. Only 3 of EJ's 11 opponents are currently above .600 and only 1 is above .750. Tapscott's schedule has been much tougher. 13 of his 26 opponents are above .600 (and Portland is close at .595). 7 of Tapscott's opponents are above .750. I haven't done the math, but if you applied the Pythagorean formula to convert opponent winning percentage to point differential and then adjust our performance against them accordingly, Tapscott would look even better and EJ would look even worse.

To give you an idea about how schedule affects our performance, if we simply ignored the two Boston games when evaluating Tapscott's performance, we average 105.5 points per 100 possessions and yield 109.8. Even without Boston, I'm sure Tapscott's overall schedule would rank as more difficult than EJ's, yet his point differential (excluding Boston) is just -4.4 versus's EJ's -9.7.

But here's the interesting part: since DMac was inserted into the starting lineup, the defense has been dramatically better. Over the last 12 games, we are yielding just 107 points per 100 possessions despite playing a ridiculously hard schedule (including @CLE, @BOS, @NO, @HOU, @ORL, and vsCLE) with Butler missing 3 of the games. The downside is that we have scored just 100 points per 100 possessions during the same stretch.

[JWizmentality]

Boooooooo!!! We want Tibbs!!

[doclinkin]

I want to see the figures correcting for the DeShawn Stevenson effect. Some part of how cruddy we were is tied into how ridiculously awful he was.

[Dat2U]

I want to see the figures correcting for the DeShawn Stevenson effect. Some part of how cruddy we were is tied into how ridiculously awful he was.

True, I mentioned in another thread the only reason we've been somewhat competitive in games of late is the upgrade from DeBrick to Mcguire is so significant. And the truth is McGuire isn't even quite a starting caliber player as of yet. Not to mention since the McGuire move into the starting lineup, Caron has been either injured or absolutely dreadful.

[nate33]

I want to see the figures correcting for the DeShawn Stevenson effect. Some part of how cruddy we were is tied into how ridiculously awful he was.

I imagine Stevenson has something to do with it. But I don't think EJ would have ever benched Stevenson. Score 1 for Tapscott who finally did something about it.

[dobrojim]

CCJ may hate me for this but I think the question needs to be asked....

Is Caron suffering from having to move from SF to SG?

His play of late has not been nearly the AS level we become
accustomed to. But other factors may be involved.

[LyricalRico]

Is Caron suffering from having to move from SF to SG?

Great, now hands11 will post 18 paragraphs about why Butler at SG is a good idea. LOL

But seriously, a lot of us here have doubted the effectiveness of Butler as a full time SG. There were quite a few that wanted to at least try it and it would be fair to give it a few more games but I think the results are speaking for themselves.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ may hate me for this but I think the question needs to be asked....

Is Caron suffering from having to move from SF to SG?

His play of late has not been nearly the AS level we become
accustomed to. But other factors may be involved.

Playing like a dog at both ends has nothing to do with his new position.

Caron's forcing shots, not sharing the ball, not getting back on defense, and not playing with much passion.

Okay, if being a SG doesn't work for Butler it should be noted the team played better when he was out.

[TheBigThree]

CCJ may hate me for this but I think the question needs to be asked....

Is Caron suffering from having to move from SF to SG?

His play of late has not been nearly the AS level we become
accustomed to. But other factors may be involved.

Caron spoke a bit about it after yesterdays game. He basically said he has to get used to it, because he receives the ball in a completely different spot than he's used to. I think that might be why he's jacking up so many jump shots (though he tended to fall in love with his jumper often even before this switch).

He was also asked if he'd ask the coach to put him back at the 3, to which he said he'll do whatever the coach asks him to do. It wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the move.

I think he'll come around, probably just a small slump. He doesn't usually have games where he doesn't finish at the rim like last night.

[hands11]

CCJ may hate me for this but I think the question needs to be asked....

Is Caron suffering from having to move from SF to SG?

His play of late has not been nearly the AS level we become
accustomed to. But other factors may be involved.

I'm only going to do 16.

He was hurt/out for 3 games while we were still fighting for the playoffs hard.
Then had an off game. Then 2 pretty good games. Then we were in tank mode. He only shot 8 times, 9 times and 13 times since then.

I'm sure the move is causing him to adjust. But it's not just the move. It's the season being a lot less meaningful to him then anything he remembers while being here. It's the injury.
It's all the changes line ups.

But I am a little worried about CB. If you heard his post game interview, it didn't some like him. He was actually complaining some. Said something about the offense being more designed for the forwards to score. I find that odd considering what NY has been doing.

Besides. NY played 32 mins. CB played 38. So it's not like he was at SG the whole game unless when they were both in NY was playing SF.

I think CB is just frustrated by everything. The losing. The lack of calls when he gets hit in the face. The lack of calls period. The injury.

But I don't see how we move him back to SF if we keep Blatche and AJ. So he either settles in there or this team gets busted up at some level. Dare I saw, there could start to be some tension between the young guns and the old guard as the fight to get PT at the positions they like increases.

I'm still shooting for Haywood, Blatche, AJ, CB, GA

Everyone will need to score a little less so everyone can score. ala Boston. That means Gil also. Haywood and Blatche shouldn't just play bitch so AJ, CB and GA can just shoot while they hold down the fort. We could be a better team with the inside score from Haywood and Blatche doing what he does from all over.

[doclinkin]

I want to see the figures correcting for the DeShawn Stevenson effect. Some part of how cruddy we were is tied into how ridiculously awful he was.

I imagine Stevenson has something to do with it. But I don't think EJ would have ever benched Stevenson. Score 1 for Tapscott who finally did something about it.

Dunno, EJ is stubborn, but he did make adjustments eventually. Tapp's not so different. EJ even showed us DMac at the 2 a few times this year, especially in preseason and summer league. I'd say on balance EJ was the better coach0 e specially considering how far out of the game Tapp has been, EJ's tutelage is freshest in his mind. Though I understand the reasoning for the swap. GMEG needed an excuse to jettison EJ to go in a different direction. recruit a top quality coach, needed to make a move while he had a plausible reason considering EJ's league/fan/media popularity.

But Ernie can't have been expecting a great turnaround, just a plausible reason for a slide in a year when winning was likely not in the cards. Remember early in the season it looked like the entire East would be stronger, and SecretKev has alluded to the fact that the front office is stat minded with a very strong clear idea of how valuable Haywood was to our defense (and how historically bad we'd be without him).

I fully expect us to hire a good coach though, no re-tread, no Sam Mitchell. And Tapp will settle back to a bench/FO role with no ripple. We may struggle a bit, swap out a star or two before finding out stride again, unless we pick up a Headman who knows how to run the PTon system and can pick up where we left off two years ago. Either way, I'm eager to see where we go next. I like Tapp. Good guy. Just he's got a tough deal to work with. I'm pretty sure he'll be happy to release the sceptre when this year is over.

[bulletproof_32]

Caron spoke a bit about it after yesterdays game. He basically said he has to get used to it, because he receives the ball in a completely different spot than he's used to.

If this is the case then it seems like an easy fix to me. There's no rule stating that he has to be the 2 on both ends of the court just because he's listed that way in the starting lineup.

DMAC is somewhat of an offensive liability to begin with so wouldn't it make more sense for DMAC to have to learn the offense from the 2 guard perspective rather than CB? That way, CB still receives the ball in the spots he's used to.

Makes sense to me.

Unless of course, we're tanking with dignity.

[hands11]

NY played 32 mins. CB played 38. So it's not like he was at SG the whole game unless when they were both in NY was playing SF.

[miller31time]

NY played 32 mins. CB played 38. So it's not like he was at SG the whole game unless when they were both in NY was playing SF.

I know that when both Young and Butler were on the floor, Nick played point guard for a stretch. Not sure how long, exactly, but I distinctly remember it.

[yungal07]

The only thing I want Tankscott to do is develop the young players. Like Ivan said, let our young guys play and allow them to make mistakes without fear of being benched.

Seriously, there is absolutely no reason not to play McGee AND Pecherov. I think it's freakin' downright pathetic that those two get benched in favor of Songailia and Etan. To me, that tells me that Tankscott is no better than Eddie Jordan....a crony for the vets (as proven by his playing of Desuck over Young). Sometimes I wonder if he's just trying to get in good with the vets so that he can keep a job, because you know Jamison and Caron (and Gilbert) have a stronghold on the FO.

And scrap the damn Princeton Offense for crying out loud. I'm tired of seeing the weave and heave offense that only results in contested jumpshots. Let's get a simple motion based, pick and roll offense.

[MF23]

He's playing the vets to many minutes without there being a positive result. His best players don't even play average defense. He does have DSong and Blatche playing the best I've seen here but that is only 2 of 15. I really expected N1 to come out during this time but he's been inconsistant and the coaching has a part in that.

[Ruzious]

I want to see the figures correcting for the DeShawn Stevenson effect. Some part of how cruddy we were is tied into how ridiculously awful he was.

I imagine Stevenson has something to do with it. But I don't think EJ would have ever benched Stevenson. Score 1 for Tapscott who finally did something about it.

Wow, you must think EJ is a complete dolt.

[nate33]

Okay, I've made the adjustments factoring for opponent's point differential in order to take strength of schedule into account. For example, Orlando outscores opponents by an average of 9 points per 100 possessions. If we lose to them by 11 in a 100 possession game, it only counts as a 2 point loss when adjusted.

In the 11 games that EJ coached, the team averaged 8.8 points worse than what would be expected based on the opposition's point differential for the season.

In the 26 games that Tapscott coached, the team averaged 4.4 points worse than what would be expected based on the opposition's point differential.

In Tapscott's first 14 games with Stevenson still starting, the team averaged 4.6 points worse than what would be expected based on the opposition's point differential

In Tapscott's last 12 games, with DMac starting, the team averaged 4.2 points worse than what would be expected based on the opposition's point differential (and 3 of those games were without Butler).

A 4.4 point differential is huge in how it affects the predicted win/loss record.
Tapscott's performance projects to a 30-52 record, or a .360 winning percentage
EJ's performance projects to a 20-62 record, or a .240 winning percentage

[Ruzious]

I'll say it again - basing how the team would do on the 1st 11 games of the season is silly. It doesn't show anything.

[nate33]

I'll say it again - basing how the team would do on the 1st 11 games of the season is silly. It doesn't show anything.

You can only attempt to predict so much with the statistics available. It's fair to say that 11 games isn't a sufficient sample size. But it's worth nothing that EJ wasn't all THAT successful last season either, going by point differential. Our point differential last year projects to a 40-42 season. That's only 10 games better than Tapscott; and that's with Haywood.

If you look at the point differential when Haywood was out of the game, we would have projected to a record of 25-57 last year, 5 games worse than Tapscott. I recognize that that analysis isn't really fair to EJ since Blatche is better this year, but it's interesting nonetheless.

The bottom line is that when I take the data available and do my best to come up with an objective analysis, EJ doesn't really look that great and Tapscott looks a little better than perceived.