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Hey guys,

I've been hearing a lot about JaVale McGee recently, and as an outsider I was wondering what you guys thought his ceiling was. I've seen him play very few times, and he has looked pretty promising when I did. But what do you guys think his ceiling is or who do you believe is a player you find comparable to what you see McGee as a few years down the road? Is he definitely a starter in the future, or does he still carry bust potential?

He is almost surely a starter in the future. I consider it fairly likely that he'll be about as good as Tyson Chandler with a jumper, or a prime Marcus Camby. He's already posting per-minute numbers similar to Marcus Camby. Unfortunately, while McGee has the physical talent of Camby, he's not yet there in the basketball-IQ department. He's terrible with his defensive rotations and in defending the pick and roll. But those things will improve with time.

Tyson Chandler with off-the-charts offensive capabilities. Problem is that he looks years away from putting it together.

closg00 wrote:Tyson Chandler with off-the-charts offensive capabilities. Problem is that he looks years away from putting it together.

Perhaps. I like McGee, but he's generally overrated on this board. He does have a high ceiling, but when a player is as raw as he is without being a teenager, there's got to be questions raised about whether or not he will ever even come close to reaching that ceiling.

^ he's not a teenager, tru dat, but he's still pretty darn young
and relatively inexperienced having only one real year of college
before last year.

that said, there's no telling when, if ever, the bulb will go
on and he'll 'get it'.

Ruzious wrote:

closg00 wrote:Tyson Chandler with off-the-charts offensive capabilities. Problem is that he looks years away from putting it together.

Perhaps. I like McGee, but he's generally overrated on this board. He does have a high ceiling, but when a player is as raw as he is without being a teenager, there's got to be questions raised about whether or not he will ever even come close to reaching that ceiling.

True, but the question was about JM's ceiling, so his ceiling is high. I agree w/you though, someone as raw as JM could turn-out bust if he is not properly coached/developed, so this concerns me.

A less-crazy Keon Clark.

Not sure what his ceiling is, but his floor is probably Michael Olowokandi who ended up averaging 8 pts 7 rebs a game for about 10 years despite coming in as the #1 pick with measurements of 7 ft without shoes, 269 pounds, 7-8 wingspan, and a 35 inch vertical- all slightly or significantly better than Javale's. (See draftexpress.com.)

dobrojim wrote:^ he's not a teenager, tru dat, but he's still pretty darn young
and relatively inexperienced having only one real year of college
before last year.

that said, there's no telling when, if ever, the bulb will go
on and he'll 'get it'.

You're exactly right about the light bulb. He had 2 years of college - and it's a little scary that apparently he was too green as a frosh for even a school like Vegas to give him PT. Granted, they had a helluva player in front of him, but you'd think they'd find a way to play them together.

His ceiling is a prime Camby, probably with one or two fewer rebounds but four or five more points on a better field goal percentage. Getting there is all a matter of improving things on the mental side. The question becomes, were all his mental mistakes that he showed last season just typical rookie project things that will go away with experience and good coaching? Or is that just part of who he is, something that will hold him back for his entire career? In the case of the latter, you'll still see the Camby-like games from time to time, but not on a regular basis.

On that note, I'd put his realistic floor at a slightly better version of of Tyrus Thomas of this past season. Similar numbers, some games where he'll be the best player on the court, some where he'll be among the worst.

I am not saying he is going to be Dwight Howard but he had similar combine numbers to him.

He was 2 inches taller, about the same weight. Had the same amount of bench presses, a couple inches less on the vertical jump and a little slower in the agility drills.

After Howard's 2nd season, he REALLY transformed his body. As you can see now.

I am just throwing that out there. In terms of athletic ability Javale is up there with Howard (even chris paul said it), but If he can put on some muscle like Howard and keep most of his athleticism, he is going to be a beast.

Dwight had that strength as an 18 year old. McGee was 21 when he was measured.

He will average double digit points and rebounds. I wonder if he will be able to play PF if he develops a consistent mid range jumper. His size and length along with Haywood at C would be so dominating.

^^^Actually he was 20, but i see what you are saying. But McGee had not been playing basketball for that long, and is still growing into his body. Like I said though maybe McGee can put some muscle on this summer and next summer

His ceiling is as a perennial All-Star, potential All-NBA guy. With his combo of height, length and leaping ability, he may have the highest "jumping reach" in the NBA. Certainly top 5. He has a good nose for scoring and the basis for an excellent jumper (he's got good form but releases way too low). He could be a top-5/all-defense shotblocker as well. He already runs the floor as well as most any big in the L.

he's miles from his ceiling right now and its anyone's guess as to how close he comes to reaching it. But he's got more potential than anyone on the Wiz roster -- and anyone they've had in a long time.

Put it this way McGee would be a top 5 pick in this years draft no doubt.

Now, the better question is "What are the chance he actually hits that ceiling?" I think better than 50/50.

While he's raw in terms of basketball IQ, he has good scoring instincts, is aggressive, hustles, plays with fire and energy, and has a wide range of skills. He doesn't back down from even elite centers, and has shown good work ethic so far as a pro (though not perfect). He seems to be continuing that this year. Finally, while there are some annoying judgment things (traffic tickets and the like), he has a good support system, and is pretty much a good guy.

I think these odds improve with a good big man coach, and the mentorship of Brendan Haywood.

IMO, had he stayed in school, he'd probably be a top 3 pick, maybe challenging for the #1 pick. But then we wouldn't have gotten him

the kid poor lateral explosiveness really keeps him from being an effective defender out in space and he and he has poor leg lower leg strength when making one legged offensive moves off the dribble. The kid just doesn't have the muscle explosiveness to be a star. Was he value at pick number 19, I think the answer is yes but if the kid has lateral quickness or one legged jump explosiveness, it would have shown up way before the NBA. To be honest, he seems pretty lazy. The kid has never done a heavy squat a day in his life,

you compare his physique in after three years of college to dwight howard coming out of highschool and you can see the difference in work ethic.
Javale could easily have a body physique like Dwight but he never had the drive to push himself in physical training.
he has obviously never cared much about improving his agility to elite level before getting to college. I saw some improvement but the truth is, McGee is projecting to be a face up offensive player but doesn't have explosiveness when he jumps off one leg. His mom tells people that he is powerforward but he has no agility when he is handling the ball on the perimeter. he is an upgrade over etan at the center spot so that's why we keep him. He basically does everything better than Etan except hold his post position. But his agility and one legged jump issues are probably permanent fatal flaws that his mother should have made him work when he was younger. the only thing javale can is jump straight up. He hasn't developed his legs to do any other special kind of movements needed to be successful and that's why his future is really questionable.

fishercob wrote:His ceiling is as a perennial All-Star, potential All-NBA guy. With his combo of height, length and leaping ability, he may have the highest "jumping reach" in the NBA. Certainly top 5. He has a good nose for scoring and the basis for an excellent jumper (he's got good form but releases way too low). He could be a top-5/all-defense shotblocker as well. He already runs the floor as well as most any big in the L.

he's miles from his ceiling right now and its anyone's guess as to how close he comes to reaching it. But he's got more potential than anyone on the Wiz roster -- and anyone they've had in a long time.

I agree with this. I think he has potential to be one of the top center's in the game and a true game changer. I think his realistic expectation is a Marcus Camby/Tyson Chandler type player.

Is a more athletic andrew Bynum a good comparison?