RealGM

Hey guys,

I've been having an argument with this guy on another board about the value of Brendan.

He think Brendan stinks and obviously I disagree.

So I'd like for you guys to show me where I can find data that proves Brendan is in fact a top 10 center in this league.

Thanks

Tell him to watch ESPN...last night, he was gettin glove in the draft. Jeff Van Gundy said that he was a huge piece of our puzzle.

Give him some stats too. Dude is our defensive anchor (not that that says a lot), but we are a hell of a lot better with him in the lineup playing at least 30 minutes.

He has posted a positive on/off differential in each season for as far back as 82games.com maintains a record.

Over his past 4 healthy seasons, when he is on the court, the Wizards' defense (based on points allowed per possession) ranks as a modestly below-average team - usually in the 17th to 22nd range. When he is off the court, the Wizards points allowed per possession rank them among the worst defensive teams of all time. This is not an exaggeration. With Haywood off the court, the team consistently gives up more than 2 more points than the worst defensive team in the league.

Sports Illustrated wrote an article about 3 years ago where they ranked the "defensive presence" of big man by the number of interior shots allowed by the other team. Haywood was second best in the league behind only Mutombo. Teams just aren't interested in getting shots in the paint when Haywood is around.

His per game averages are lackluster because he has historically played just 25-28 minutes a game. This is because Eddie Jordan is an absolute idiot. There is no justification for him playing such few minutes when his impact on the game is so great and his foul rate is low enough to allow him more minutes. On a per-minute basis, his numbers compare favorably with most second-tier centers like Ilgauskas, Dalembert, Dampier, Bogut, Perkins, Kaman and Okur. His posted a better PER than all of those guys last year except Z, and he plays better defense than all of them. (You can argue that Perkins plays comparable D, but I'd like to see Perkins defend like that with Jamison as his wingman instead of Garnett.)

Basically, the only centers in the league who are hands down better defenders than Haywood are Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan. I honestly don't think there's a better post defender in the league, except perhaps Rasheed Wallace when he is motivated.

For the Wizards, Haywood is a top 10 center because of our defensive woes. I would say look at how the Wizards turned from a playoff team to one of the worst because of his injury (although there were other factors like Stevenson and Daniels being banged up).

* Sky-high eFG% and TS%.

* Recorded a PER of 18.3 in 2007-2008 while anchoring our defense year after year

* Recorded the highest free throw % improvement in the NBA last season (going from 54.8% to 73.5%)

* Consistently has one of the highest on/off differentials on the team (+5.9 last year, +5.4 in 06-07, +2.1 in 05-06, +12.4 in 04-05, +5.9 in 03-04, +1.9 in 02-03)

* Wizards allow a much, much lower eFG% when he's on the court as opposed to when he's off (4.2% differential in 04-05, 1.8% in 05-06, 1.8% in 06-07, etc)

* Guards the best opposing post player and holds him to a more than respectable PER

There's more that Nate would most likely gladly get to but that's about all I've got.

Kevin (TheSecretWeapon) had some interesting stats too. Off the top of my head, he said that when Haywood was on the court for a specific season, the Wizards were an average defensive team. When he was off the court, the Wizards were one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. He could probably back that up if need be.

EDIT: Nevermind, Nate already got to it.

Sick post nate. A little known fact about Haywood is he has a great work ethic. He's going to add something to his game this year. In honor of the draft just happening I will throw out some measurements. He has the 6th longest reach since they've been keeping track (Javale is second).

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... s=5&sort=6

I've had the same discussion at my office about Haywood, mostly from people who do not watch a lot of Wizards games, the only person who kept Haywood down was E.J. Ego mostly.

Wood will shine this year, I've been telling people in my office he's got a good chance a making the All-Star team this year. I believe.


Once the season get going, everyone will know who B.H. is. It's just a few months away.

I'm looking forward to McGee and Haywood on the floor at time.

NBAdraft.net
The NBA's 10 Most Underrated Players Part 1

6. Brendan Haywood (Ranks 33rd in 2007-08 Composite Score)

The Big Three in Washington should probably be switched to the Big Four, because Haywood is a great center and has been for a while. He actually finished second on the Wizards in Composite Score this past season, beating out Caron Butler. His Composite Score ranks since 2004: 22nd, 15th, 64th, 77th, and 33rd. Yes, I'm still talking about Haywood. He plays well on both ends of the floor, thanks in part to his good size. It may not always seem like he's playing hard and he certainly has his faults, but he's effective. The Wizards got good value for him when they selected him 20th overall in the 2001 draft.

Unfortunately for the Wiz, Haywood suffered from a wrist injury during the preseason and could miss the entire season after having surgery to repair it.

Here's an article I wrote at the end of the 2004-05 season about the Wizards defense -- http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_piece ... s_defense/. Here's an excerpt about Haywood:

I wrote:Haywood, as would be expected for a center tasked with protecting the basket, is responsible for defending more shots per minute than any other player on the roster. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 32.8% on shots he is responsible for defending. The team average over the same 44 games is 50%. Haywood also leads the team in non-steal forced turnovers. (Examples of non-steal forced turnovers include pressuring an offensive player into traveling, a double dribble, a bad pass, or drawing a charge.)

and...

I wrote:This data can be used effectively to compare players with similar defensive roles. For example, Haywood and Etan Thomas both play at center, rarely are on the court together, and have nearly identical responsibilities when they do play. They both block the same number of shots per minute, but the team gives up fewer points when Haywood is on the court. (See the on/off data presented at www.82games.com for more details on this.

Despite playing the same roles in the same defensive system, Haywood is responsible for defending nearly four additional shots per 48 minutes (20.7 for Haywood to 16.9 for Thomas), and does a much better job of forcing misses (.328 DeFG for Haywood vs. .494 for Thomas). Haywood also forces twice as many turnovers per 48 minutes as Thomas.

Haywood was on the Kevin Sheehan show a little while ago and his knowledge and wit is unmatched by most professional athletes. Here are a couple nuggets from his discussion:

1. He said that right now he considers the Wiz the 4th best team in the East, only out of respect to what the Cav's, Magic, and Celtics have done, but sounded as though he felt the Wiz belonged in discussion with the top four team, but have to prove it because they are coming off a 19 win season. Later when discussing if the Wiz make it to the 2nd round and faced one of the top three teams Haywood said, if healthy, they'd be able to advance.

2. When asked about Etan he said that basically the team is happy he's gone because Etan distanced himself from the team. He said that Etan never went out to eat with the other players, or went to comedy shows, or out to the mall when they were on the road, and that since he hasn't played in the last two years they're, speaking for the team, happy he's gone. He did say they are sad to see Song go and that he was a good, productive player and made himself 'part of the team'.

3. He also said that GMEG has done a great job assembling talent and that this team will be the most talented team he's been on. Raved about McGee's athleticism saying that the sky is the limit for him. Spoke well of Blatche and Young saying they were good young players who contributed last year in limited roles and expects them to improve upon last year. Said how he expects EG to sign a vet big.

4. From what he hears about Gil he's doing good and has lost weight. He's optimistic that Gil will have a Wade-esque turnaround season after working with the trainer in Chicago for the next couple of months..

no D in Hibachi wrote:2. When asked about Etan he said that basically the team is happy he's gone because Etan distanced himself from the team. He said that Etan never went out to eat with the other players, or went to comedy shows, or out to the mall when they were on the road, and that since he hasn't played in the last two years they're, speaking for the team, happy he's gone. He did say they are sad to see Song go and that he was a good, productive player and made himself 'part of the team'.

Wow! Haywood has been very candid lately, here and on his blog. He's walking a fine line though. I don't think he's said anything wrong, but in this day and age, the media can take things out of context or blow them out of proportion to make Haywood seem like a real ass. Typically, the only guys who are immune from the negative blowback from such candid criticisms are superstars like Barkley, Rodman or Arenas who have a track record of being "quirky".

Did Haywood really use the phrase "happy he's gone" or did he say it with more tact and you are just paraphrasing?

FreeBalling wrote:I've had the same discussion at my office about Haywood, mostly from people who do not watch a lot of Wizards games, the only person who kept Haywood down was E.J. Ego mostly.

Wood will shine this year, I've been telling people in my office he's got a good chance a making the All-Star team this year. I believe.


Once the season get going, everyone will know who B.H. is. It's just a few months away.

I'm looking forward to McGee and Haywood on the floor at time.

NBAdraft.net
The NBA's 10 Most Underrated Players Part 1

6. Brendan Haywood (Ranks 33rd in 2007-08 Composite Score)

The Big Three in Washington should probably be switched to the Big Four, because Haywood is a great center and has been for a while. He actually finished second on the Wizards in Composite Score this past season, beating out Caron Butler. His Composite Score ranks since 2004: 22nd, 15th, 64th, 77th, and 33rd. Yes, I'm still talking about Haywood. He plays well on both ends of the floor, thanks in part to his good size. It may not always seem like he's playing hard and he certainly has his faults, but he's effective. The Wizards got good value for him when they selected him 20th overall in the 2001 draft.

Unfortunately for the Wiz, Haywood suffered from a wrist injury during the preseason and could miss the entire season after having surgery to repair it.

Love it. Great post.

I started in on the No Big 3 thing several years ago when I spotted how important Haywood was. I felt it was an insult to him and a poor way of focusing what is now finally a TEAM.

Haywood is as important if not more then any of the so called big 3. We have been able to win without any one of them but with Haywood out, we couldn't. Now that is in part because we have never had a good center behind him which is why I wanted to add that this year. Specially until we see what McGee can do. He may still need more time but besides, he isn't a banger.

Here is another stat and it's an important one. Haywood plays strong in the playoffs. The last year we went he was the second rated center PER even though we only played one round and the team was short handed.

I agree. Haywood is going to look like a beast this year. With GA focusing on being a PG, Haywood is going to get lots of dunks and get to the line more. This will sure as a double whammy as it will put the other teams post players on the bench.

Broken record time. The best defensive scheme you can play is to get the other teams best post defended off the court. This is in large part why EJ was such a fool for not playing Haywood more and for not having a system that had a PG running the show. You need a coach on the floor lining up the mismatches, not just everyone running around while you take the ball our of your best decission makers and passers hands.

nate33 wrote:

no D in Hibachi wrote:2. When asked about Etan he said that basically the team is happy he's gone because Etan distanced himself from the team. He said that Etan never went out to eat with the other players, or went to comedy shows, or out to the mall when they were on the road, and that since he hasn't played in the last two years they're, speaking for the team, happy he's gone. He did say they are sad to see Song go and that he was a good, productive player and made himself 'part of the team'.

Wow! Haywood has been very candid lately, here and on his blog. He's walking a fine line though. I don't think he's said anything wrong, but in this day and age, the media can take things out of context or blow them out of proportion to make Haywood seem like a real ass. Typically, the only guys who are immune from the negative blowback from such candid criticisms are superstars like Barkley, Rodman or Arenas who have a track record of being "quirky".

Did Haywood really use the phrase "happy he's gone" or did he say it with more tact and you are just paraphrasing?

I heard the interview and I want to provide some context. Kevin Sheehan who was interviewing him was doing everything in his power to get Haywood to say something soundbite-worthy about Etan -- something along the lines of "can you say that you weren't happy to see him go."

Haywood didn't lie, but he wasn't a dick either. He said he wasn't actively happy that Etan was leaving and that he was pleased for Etan that he'd get to cash his trade kicker check and would get a chance to play in Minnesota (implicitly saying that he wasn't getting on the court in DC). But he also didn't mince words about the fact that Etan was not a "core" guy -- he had not played for the better part of two seasons, and unlike other guys, when he was hurt he was away from the team a lot. As noD said, Etan didn't go to the mall, meals out, etc., the way Songaila did.

Interestingly, Haywood did get an a half-second dig at EJ. When he was saying how he believed the Wiz could compete with the elite in the East and talking about the virtues and depth of the roster he mentioned how the Wiz had "upgraded at Coach" by hiring Saunders. That's hardly news to most people, but it made me chuckle nonetheless.

Other things from the interview:

As was reported elsewhere, he LOVED the trade. Said Foye is the perfect backup at both gaurd spots and Miller's shooting is going to spread the floor and make life easy for their other offensive weapons. He clearly believes in both guys and the Wiz rotation.

Sheehan asked if he was surprised/dismayed about the sale of the second rounder instead of taking Dajuan Blair. Haywood said people need to understand the business side of things and that he's glad he doesn't have to worry about it on a day to day. He said NBA owners took a huge hit with the GFC and this is just one of those things teams (and fans) have to live with. He said he had a lot of respect for Blair (i think he used the term "great player) but also did not sound as if passing on picking him was going to hurt the Wiz in any significant way.

He said he'd expect the Wiz to sign -- not trade for -- a veteran big or two to round out the roster.

Yeah, he's the man.

Minor point in Etan's defense -- it would have been tough for him to go out with the guys with some of the injuries he's had. He had some kind of face/head injurty (fractured orbital bone? -- or was it his eye?). The recovery from that had him basically bed-ridden for something like 6 weeks. And after he had his heart surgery he wasn't in any condition to go out.

All that said, Etan was always more interested in doing his own thing than going along with the rest of the group. Both blessing and curse in that.

BTH could be playing himself right off the team this-year. With Yao possibly being out this season and next, Haywood will be hitting FA at the perfect time. The irony is that we won't be able to pay him.
I'd trade AJ next-year rather than risk losing Haywood.

closg00 wrote:BTH could be playing himself right off the team this-year. With Yao possibly being out this season and next, Haywood will be hitting FA at the perfect time. The irony is that we won't be able to pay him.
I'd trade AJ next-year rather than risk losing Haywood.

+1

no D in Hibachi wrote:

closg00 wrote:BTH could be playing himself right off the team this-year. With Yao possibly being out this season and next, Haywood will be hitting FA at the perfect time. The irony is that we won't be able to pay him.
I'd trade AJ next-year rather than risk losing Haywood.

+1

No doubt that is likely to happen. Its the CB or AJ question.