"The Eight-Man Rotation Is Coming"

[doclinkin]

I like the Big Line-up.

It's interesting to check through the actual game flows of Flip's tenure (here the 07 Eastern Conference Championships vs the Brons). Even in the postseason, in tight games, he was regularly playing 10 players not insignificant minutes.

Seems like he likes to drop players in at about the 8 minute mark, unless he plays them the entire Q. Foul trouble or crappy play obviously alters that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

That works for me. The only issue I have is that I'd like to try and keep Arenas on the floor at the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter so he can run the isolation play. Here's a few other rotation options:


FOYE STARTS

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    |      1ST QUARTER       |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME|2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG  |GA----------------------|RF----------GA----------|
SG  |RF----------NY----------|------MM----------------|
SF  |CB----------MM----------|CB----------------------|
PF  |AJ----------AB----------|AJ----------------------|
C   |BH------------------JM--|AB----------BH----------|
MINS: GA-36 CB-36 AJ-36 BH-32 MM-30 RF-24 AB-24 NY-18 JM-4

MILLER STARTS

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    |      1ST QUARTER       |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME|2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG  |GA----------------------|RF----------GA----------|
SG  |MM----------RF----------|NY----------MM----------|
SF  |CB----------MM----------|CB----------------------|
PF  |AJ----------AB----------|AJ----------------------|
C   |BH------------------JM--|AB----------BH----------|
MINS: GA-36 CB-36 AJ-36 MM-36 BH-32 RF-24 AB-24 NY-12 JM-4

BIG LINEUP: JAMISON PLAYS SOME SF

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    |      1ST QUARTER       |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME|2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG  |GA----------------------|RF----------GA----------|
SG  |MM----------RF----------|MM----------------------|
SF  |CB----------AJ----------|CB----------------------|
PF  |AJ----------AB----------|------------AJ----------|
C   |BH----------------JM----|------BH----------------|
MINS: GA-36 CB-36 AJ-36 MM-36 BH-36 RF-24 AB-24 JM-12

10-MAN ROTATION:

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    |      1ST QUARTER       |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME|2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG  |GA----------------JC----|--------JC--------------|
SG  |RF----------MM----NY----|--------MM--RF----------|
SF  |CB----------------MM----|--------CB--------------|
PF  |AJ----------------AB----|--------AJ--------------|
C   |BH----------------JM----|--------BH--------------|
MINS: GA-34 CB-34 AJ-34 BH-34 MM-24 RF-24 JC-14 NY-14 AB-14 JM-14

In the first two lineups, AB's and JM's can be modified pretty easily based on who is playing better. Basically, either Blatche or McGee can play center at the start of the 2nd quarter.

Nice format, nate.

I also like the big lineup.

One observation: Fabricio Oberto played 23 minutes a game in the NBA Finals for the 2007 NBA Champion Spurs team. He started for SA last season. I believe there's no way he doesn't play at least 10-15 minutes a game for this team.

Just looking at the bigs on the team I think Brendan's going to have to cede some minutes to Javale and Andray. BH probably plays 28 like he did under EJ is my guess.

[Kanyewest]

Guys who played more than 10 minutes per game with the Pistons against the Cavs

Game 1 - 8
Game 2- 8
Game 3- 7
Game 4- 7
Game 5 - 7 (in a double OT game)
Game 6- 8

[nate33]

One observation: Fabricio Oberto played 23 minutes a game in the NBA Finals for the 2007 NBA Champion Spurs team. He started for SA last season. I believe there's no way he doesn't play at least 10-15 minutes a game for this team.

Just looking at the bigs on the team I think Brendan's going to have to cede some minutes to Javale and Andray. BH probably plays 28 like he did under EJ is my guess.

I sincerely hope Flip finds a way to get Haywood at least 32 minutes a game. He's too good to play any less. You may have a point that Oberto is going to get minutes, but if he does, he should be taking them from McGee or Blatche, not Haywood.

I see Oberto as a "safety net"

I'd like to see McGee and Blatche get all of the backup minutes at PF and C for the first 60 games or so; with Oberto only playing when there's foul trouble, injury, or maybe if one of the young bigs is really rattled and needs to sit for a minute. If, after 60 games or so, it still doesn't appear that Blatche or McGee will be able to "turn the corner" this year, then Oberto should be phased into the rotation in preparation for the playoffs.

I'm particularly interested in making sure Blatche gets plenty of opportunities. This is his 5th year (well, really his 4th after factoring the gunshot year). He should be ready to make "the leap", to being a consistent, starting-caliber player. If he's not ready to be consistent, I want to know about it so we can shop him.

I'm less concerned about McGee getting minutes. His game is so raw that he might not even be at the point where in-game minutes will significantly help his development. Don't get me wrong. I'd like for him to get a shot. But if he goes on making boneheaded rotations, poor picks, ineffective boxouts, and otherwise shows a complete disregard for the nuances of the game, I'd understand if Flip benches him midway through the year. McGee might need a full season of remedial training before he's ready to contribute.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03044.html

"I mean, it's like a new era for me," said Oberto, 34. "We have a great, great team. We got to put our goal from the beginning to be in the playoffs and be a very dangerous team."

Oberto arrived in Washington on Saturday and was able to watch fellow Argentine Juan Martín del Potro defeat Andy Roddick in the final of the Legg Mason Tennis Classic. He plans on going back home and returning in September. Oberto added that he is not worried about what role Saunders will have him play. "I like to see what is missing on a team and help that part," Oberto said. "If I got to play D and I don't take a shot for 10 games, I'll do it."

Maybe Oberto will be content with 5-10 minutes here and there, nate.

[LyricalRico]

One observation: Fabricio Oberto played 23 minutes a game in the NBA Finals for the 2007 NBA Champion Spurs team. He started for SA last season. I believe there's no way he doesn't play at least 10-15 minutes a game for this team.

Just looking at the bigs on the team I think Brendan's going to have to cede some minutes to Javale and Andray. BH probably plays 28 like he did under EJ is my guess.

Interesting. I've said that I thnk Oberto has a good chance to play over McGee but I never considered that he might take minutes from Haywood. That will be something to watch becuase Oberto can do things offensively that Haywood can't. Hopefully Flip sees Wood's defensive impact and gives that priority.

I see Oberto as a "safety net".

I've held that I don't think he sees himself that way and I'm not sure the organization views him that way either. We have to use the "big lineup" to get all of the bigs on the floor.

[Kanyewest]

I also see Haywood receiving less than 30 minutes per game. Up to this point, Blatche has been more effective playing center than the power forward position. McGee looked pretty good in his last two summer league games. Hopefully training with Team USA has elevated his game even more. And throw in Oberto, who can play alongside Jamison and McGee to compensate for their lack of toughness. And there are bound to be games where Haywood gets in foul trouble.

And Haywood receiving less than 30 minutes per game in the regular season isn't a bad thing. The Wizards need to develop some depth especially when they go into the playoffs and find the right guy to play. Yes, the Wizards defense has been shown to be significantly worse when Haywood is on the floor. But the Wizards should also prepare for the situation when Haywood and Blatche are in foul trouble after picking up touch fouls from LeBron.

When it comes down to the playoffs, Haywood could be looking at 32 minutes per game,.

[doclinkin]

Guys who played more than 10 minutes per game with the Pistons against the Cavs

Game 1 - 8
Game 2- 8
Game 3- 7
Game 4- 7
Game 5 - 7 (in a double OT game)
Game 6- 8

True, but what's interesting is that it's a different 7 or 8 depending on the game and series. And what's significant is when they're playing, and why. Late game, in tight games, tough series, or at all.

Flip Murray, JMax, Lindsey Hunter all averaged about 10 minutes a game for the playoffs. Carlos Delfino just under 10 minutes; while other players earned 20 minutes or more. Beyond the 40mpg trio (Prince, Billups, Rip) he spread the minutes around a bit.

What piques my curiosity is that the position where he had the most depth was naturally the spot where he divvied the minutes up. Dale Davis, Chris Webber, Jason Maxiell, Rasheed, McDyess passed the minutes around. But there was no talent equivalency for Tayshaun Prince, no floor leader like Billups. And Rip's offense had no replacement other than Chauncey. But the 5 players for 2 spots in the front court shared like swingers in the 70's. CWebb started but played less than back-up McDyess some games.

Point being, given our depth and versatility and the lack of overlap in skill set, Flip may struggle to decide the type of team he wants to play at any given moment. If he can master the problem he can throw a half dozen different styles out there, different tempos, offense from different angles, defensive looks. A guy who likes to theorize the game and tinker a bit in-game (thus different 8-man cores depending on situation) could develop interesting tactical synergy in his arsenal of possible squads.

[DCZards]

I see Oberto as a "safety net"

I'd like to see McGee and Blatche get all of the backup minutes at PF and C for the first 60 games or so; with Oberto only playing when there's foul trouble, injury, or maybe if one of the young bigs is really rattled and needs to sit for a minute.

I think the organization sees Oberto playing more than 10-15 minutes a game. I'd be surprised if he doesn't avg. around 20 minutes a game. Another poster called Oberto "tough and smart." That's a good thing. Those are characteristics that the Zards other back-up big men (Blatche, McGee) currently lack.

[LyricalRico]

I see Oberto as a "safety net"

I'd like to see McGee and Blatche get all of the backup minutes at PF and C for the first 60 games or so; with Oberto only playing when there's foul trouble, injury, or maybe if one of the young bigs is really rattled and needs to sit for a minute.

I think the organization sees Oberto playing more than 10-15 minutes a game. I'd be surprised if he doesn't avg. around 20 minutes a game. Another poster called Oberto "tough and smart." That's a good thing. Those are characteristics that the Zards other back-up big men (Blatche, McGee) currently lack.

[nate33]

I see Oberto as a "safety net"

I'd like to see McGee and Blatche get all of the backup minutes at PF and C for the first 60 games or so; with Oberto only playing when there's foul trouble, injury, or maybe if one of the young bigs is really rattled and needs to sit for a minute.

I think the organization sees Oberto playing more than 10-15 minutes a game. I'd be surprised if he doesn't avg. around 20 minutes a game. Another poster called Oberto "tough and smart." That's a good thing. Those are characteristics that the Zards other back-up big men (Blatche, McGee) currently lack.

Let's not forget that Oberto is 34 years old (with a lot of mileage in the Argentinian leagues). His PER plummeted last year from 13.8 to 10.6 and his minutes fell from 20 mpg to 12 mpg. I don't think it's reasonable to project his production from 2 years ago. He is clearly in decline. There's a reason he was available on a 1-year contract for just $2M.

Oberto may be "tough and smart", but he's unathletic and he's not going to get any better. He has a role on this team, but that role shouldn't be to impede the development of Blatche. If we want to succeed in the playoffs, we're going to need Blatche to step up as a viable 3rd big man.

[LyricalRico]

His PER plummeted last year from 13.8 to 10.6 and his minutes fell from 20 mpg to 12 mpg.

Yeah but look who he was playing for. (Wait...that's actually helping YOUR argument...)

[doclinkin]

Let's not forget that Oberto is 34 years old (with a lot of mileage in the Argentinian leagues). His PER plummeted last year from 13.8 to 10.6 and his minutes fell from 20 mpg to 12 mpg. I don't think it's reasonable to project his production from 2 years ago. He is clearly in decline. There's a reason he was available on a 1-year contract for just $2M.

Oberto may be "tough and smart", but he's unathletic and he's not going to get any better. He has a role on this team, but that role shouldn't be to impede the development of Blatche. If we want to succeed in the playoffs, we're going to need Blatche to step up as a viable 3rd big man.

Maybe so, but we have "athletic" elsewhere on the roster, whereas "tough and smart" are in default. I'd suspect if we're blessed enough to talk playoff strategy you'll be looking at more minutes for Oberto than McGee in your breakdown.

Flip's offense thrives on dynamic motion, screens away from the ball, back picks to spring players free before the pass, pin screens in the paint to free a perimeter player on a crossing route, etc. No question Blatche needs to learn this stuff to be effective here. But he hasn't seen it yet, hasn't had to put it into practice in game play, hasn't gone over breakdowns on tape, etc.

Oberto and Haywood are the only two reliable pick-setters on the squad. We're wasting our deep and excellent _back-court_ depth and talent if we can't maximize it by allowing the offense to actually work. By using the Bigs in a support role. McGee has time to develop all-star potential--- yeah, it would be brilliant if he's integrated the instinct to run the system right by playoff time, if so we'd be a dominant force-- but as of right now he's still a ?-mark from minute to minute.

The strength heart & soul and talent of this squad is in perimeter-oriented players. We're a dynamic and deadly jumpshooting team, more than a frontweighted powerhouse. Whatever we can do to maximize our strength gives us the best advantage. You play to your best players more than try to even out your weaknesses. Make your efficient players even more efficient, stars carry the championship teams, role players play support.

JaVale has star talent, but he's got a long hill to climb before he's peaked. Dray has yet to really figure out what his role is. Or whether or not he's a role player at all. Coaches tend to tap players from whom they know what to expect. A guy who can consistently set the jarring pick that springs loose your game-winning gunner is more important than a guy who will occasionally give you highlight plays, but as often is in the wrong spot wrong time.

I don't guess Oberto will earn much more than those 10 minutes per game. But if you don't have him in your rotation at all you're kidding yourself, or you've a slightly more optimistic view of the learning curve of our young Bigs than they have yet earned.

...

As for Oberto vs Haywood. For the reasons detailed above, in critical minutes I suspect Flip will find it useful to have one or the other on the floor at any given time. Unless Blatche picks up the system quick (at both ends) and relaxes into a similar role. Together Obie and Wood may prove redundant, but when McGee is oncourt having a fundamentally sound defender playing next to him could prove all the difference in the world. I know Gil will love the McGee effect (turning even an errant pass or missed shot into an assist) but in order to survive the occasional gamble for block or other miscue you'll want to have someone out there who can help shepherd him to the right spot, or cover behind him, etc.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'd be astonished if Oberto played 20 minutes a game barring an injury or two along the frontline. I think the organization views him as the 4th or 5th guy in their PF/C rotation -- exactly where he ranks will depend largely on how quickly McGee develops. If Oberto is getting 20 minutes a night, it means that both Blatche and McGee utterly failed to improve this summer. In Blatche's case, it would be a failure that would mean very bad things for his prospects of ever becoming a useful NBA player.

[MJG]

I'd be astonished if Oberto played 20 minutes a game barring an injury or two along the frontline. I think the organization views him as the 4th or 5th guy in their PF/C rotation -- exactly where he ranks will depend largely on how quickly McGee develops. If Oberto is getting 20 minutes a night, it means that both Blatche and McGee utterly failed to improve this summer. In Blatche's case, it would be a failure that would mean very bad things for his prospects of ever becoming a useful NBA player.

I'd take it a step beyond: if Oberto is playing 20 MPG, that means Blatche not only didn't improve over the summer, but he must have regressed. Blatche was already a useful NBA player last year, almost unquestionably better than Oberto. And at his age, Oberto certainly isn't going to improve. So, Oberto stealing minutes from Blatche means Blatche somehow got much worse.

[Kanyewest]

Flip's offense thrives on dynamic motion, screens away from the ball, back picks to spring players free before the pass, pin screens in the paint to free a perimeter player on a crossing route, etc. No question Blatche needs to learn this stuff to be effective here. But he hasn't seen it yet, hasn't had to put it into practice in game play, hasn't gone over breakdowns on tape, etc.

Blatche must have seen it from Darius Songailia.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'd be astonished if Oberto played 20 minutes a game barring an injury or two along the frontline. I think the organization views him as the 4th or 5th guy in their PF/C rotation -- exactly where he ranks will depend largely on how quickly McGee develops. If Oberto is getting 20 minutes a night, it means that both Blatche and McGee utterly failed to improve this summer. In Blatche's case, it would be a failure that would mean very bad things for his prospects of ever becoming a useful NBA player.

Or, it could mean the coaching simply favors Oberto despite what Blatche or McGee bring to the table.

TSW, I've seen a lot of cases over the years where young guys where buried on the bench behind veterans. Usually contracts were such that the big money guys played more.

Last season, Jamison didn't deserve to play significantly more minutes than Blatche. Not on a 19-win team. The Wizards were just as good with Jamison off the court last season. Same is true for Butler. It's not like they would have fallen off the map to say a 14 or 15 win team had Blatche started at PF and McGuire at SF. I suspect the team would have been about the same.

Getting back to the minutes of young players not necessarily indicating who can play I can think of other players on other teams that were young and simply didn't get minutes. David Lee's first couple seasons at NY he didn't play much. Trevor Ariza was good with NY and IIRC ORL but he didn't play much. What he did for the Lakers last season was about what he's always done but just didn't get minutes. Brandon Bass was good before he was IIRC waived by New Orleans. Same is true for JR Smith. I knew he was good before the Wizards re-signed DeShawn. Other good players that just haven't played much are Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, and Renaldo Balkman (I might like his overall game better than Jamison's). Off the top of my head some other names come to mind: Matt Barnes, Jared Dudley, Brandon Wright, and (duh) Brendan Haywood have all sat while lesser players played in front of them.

All this is to say if Oberto plays and McGee or Blatche don't I suspect it just means this coaching staff prefers Oberto's game better. Not that the other guys aren't more talented. I think they already are.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yeah, there have been cases where youngsters have been buried behind vets. I don't think this will be one of them because a) Blatche is better than Oberto, b) Blatche has already logged significant minutes in the NBA, and c) the team is planning for Blatche to be the first big off the bench. I stand by what I said earlier -- if Oberto plays 20 minutes per game this season (without an injury to Jamison, Haywood or Blatche), it means that Blatche and McGee had disastorously bad offseasons.

Interestingly, none of the players you cite are actually good examples of the "good youngster buried behind vets" phenomena.

David Lee played 16.9 minutes per game as a rookie and 29.8 in his 2nd season. He also missed a fair number of games in each season with injury.

Ariza may have been decent on defense in NY, but he was pretty bad overall up there. He did have a good season in Orlando, but then was crap in short minutes before getting dealt to the Lakers where he resumed his good play. He's probably the closest to a "buried youngster" from your list. Although, it's sorta understandable -- he was losing minutes to Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu, AND he was playing poorly. In retrospect, Orlando may have done better to try Ariza at SG.

Bass rebounded well in New Orleans, but overall was awful -- especially on the offensive end. What happened when he went from the Hornets to Dallas was that he grew a jumper from working with Dallas's shooting coach. In his first 2 seasons, he shot .250 and .208 on jumpers. In Dallas, it was .487 and .445. That enabled him to move away from the basket, which helped him tremendously since he gets a very high percentage of his inside shots blocked. Bass got playing time because Dallas recognized a useful skill (rebounding) and worked with him to fix the big weakness (his shooting) that was limiting his playing time.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'll stand by what I've said: Blatche is already more talented than Oberto. So is McGee.

Oberto IMO could be more effective than either player like Songaila was at times last season. Oberto could play more minutes than one or both players, too.

Doesn't make him better. Also doesn't make them worse.

I don't give coaching the benefit of being impartial at all times. Just because one player plays more it doesn't denigrate from the actual ability of another. Specifically, I could see Oberto doing as doclinkin suggests, setting screens, working the officials, getting open at the rim, flopping effectively all to the good of the team.

Blatche and McGee have size and skills Oberto doesn't have but they don't have his guile, experience, or knowledge of the game.

[dandridge 10]

I agree wholeheartedly with doc. I think Oberto is going to get more minutes than a lot of people expect and its not because that he's that great of a player. Its because he will likely make less mistakes than the youngins will. As I said before, with an experienced veteran team with most of our firepower in the perimeter game, I see Flip looking at our big men to do all the little things to put our perimeter players in the best position to win (setting good hard picks, rebounding, running the offense correctly) while not disrupting the chemistry or flow in the game. I have yet to see either Blatche or McGee do any of these things particularly well and we all know that they make plenty of mistakes that can disrupt the flow of the game (rush shots, stupid behind the back passes, etc.). In fact, I have yet to see either Blatche or McGee set a good screen. Perhaps both Blatche and McGee have worked on their games enough this summer so they are more reliable and consistent this coming season as supporting role players. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Flip give them the quick yank when they are out their making mistakes, not setting good picks or rebounding, or acting like they are the main show instead of the supporting cast. I agree that Oberto does not have the best looking stats, but there is a reason why Oberto was a starter on the Spurs team. He is the type of roleplayer that fits in well with an experienced veteran team.