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What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:55 pm
by dlts20
Ive been thinking about this ever since the recent article when Gil was hyping up Deshawn starting. I didnt think too much of it 1st because I know that they are best friends so I felt that he was just saying that publicly because he wanted to make DS feel good but really he wanted someone else to start. Plus, I think Gil has pretty much put alot of blame on DS since the end of last year.
After blowing it off, I started to think more & more about it. 1st off let me tell you where Im coming from. Im a huge fan of our young guys. I think some of the criticism is justified but alot of it is unfair. I think all our young guys look 10x better if they were starting, playing heavy minutes, and espicaly if they were playing with Gil. They are all running type players but without Gil weve been forced to play halfcourt ball with NO PG which means that all our young guys have to do everything on there own. Gil would change all of that. Thats why I couldnt wait to see NY this year. I remember Flip talking about the 8 man rotation thing and Ive always been a big fan of a short rotation but we never do it or do it right. However, we have more players then ever so I would probably rather have it at 9 for this team but no more.
The problem is that no matter what we do, its not going to be 100% perfect and has a pretty high chance of being flawed. Ive always thought that the big 4 would start along with MM. Then off the bench we would come with Foye & NY along with Blatche and maybe McGee. I always thought McGee would play until Flip said the 8 man stuff. I want McGee to play but if it is 8 then he would be the guy that I wouldve takened out. Since then Flip has backed off some and is now saying that he may go higher. I thought MM should be the starter because Offensivley he is a great fit. You know the big 3 need there shots and our biggest chucker right now is actually Wood. He never passes it once he gets it. Thats why you need a guy who will be unselfish, happy with taking less shots, and can kill you when open because he will be open alot. MM is perfect for that. Its also best to keep Foye on the bench for now so you wont have to play MJ or Critt. Another problem I have always had with our team is the way our lineups are set up but there is really nothing you can do about it. Ive said before that I think all our young guys will look 10x better with Gil and now he's back but all of them will be on the 2nd unit so he probably wont get to play with them much and Ive never liked the fact that our starting 5 is all vets with our bench being all young guys. You like to have a better mix but you just cant.
We could start NY and I think he would do very well but Im not sure if thats the best way to go. However, I do think he could dominate in this system and should play. Now with Gil's comments I am having 2nd thoughts. Im actually starting to think that NY could be cut out and we could start DS with Foye & Miller coming off the bench since they are vets and know how to play with eachother some. I could also see Oberto playing with Blatche if we go with 9 and keep us as an all vetran group until next year when we get rid of Miller & Oberto and thats when the young guys will play. DS is the biggest mystery on our team now. I never had him in any equation because he's been so bad and he's even bad on both ends now. However, there is no one who hyped this guy more then me in his 1st year. I thought he had like 5-10 bad games at the start and after that I honestly felt that he was the best role player in the league that year. His D was lights out, and he had like a 60 game stretch where he shot over 50% from the field, over 40% from 3, and like 77% from the line while also being our best passer at the time. After that is when Caron & Gil started passing better. If DS got back to that level then I would have no problem with him starting.
I say that because I dont just think about us but I also think about our future matchups and I like having MM on O but he's a bad matchup on D if you think about us playing against Wade, Allen, Kobe, or whoever. Still, I would like to have our SG being someone that can be a great offensive player if needed because I dont want Gil to maybe have to feel like he's got to score. I also could see us starting a Foye and using DS as the backup PG with a Miller beside him since they both can handle the rock. Another thing about Miller is with his size and age, he is a great shooter but maybe more suited to play SF now. Its just hard to see how its going to workout but I would be a little dissapointed if NY didnt get to play. All I know is that this training camp will be like the playoffs because everyone on this roster is going to feel like they should be playing at this stage of there career. Its going to be a battle. I just hope we dont beat ourselves up too much.. Theyre just arent enough minutes to go around and I dont want to see us doing that 5 or 10min here & there stuff or one guy plays one game and another guy plays the next. I dont think you can win that way. You have to get a group and stick with them for atleast 5-10 games and give that group consistent minutes but I dont want to see no Vet play just because he is a vet. If he stinks then put the young guy in there and give him a real chance
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:21 pm
by nate33
We just won't know until training camp. If Stevenson is 100% and has improved his jumper a tad, maybe he deserves to start. If Young is playing as well as Flip is saying, then he'll be our best two-way SG and should start. Miller's style of game is a perfect fit. Foye has played very well as the SG position too.
It's looking like a trade is in our best interests. I won't mind if Stevenson starts because it might make sense to pump up trade value. If Young is the real deal, then I'd love to see us trade Foye + Stevenson for Battier. Either that, or package Jamison with Foye and McGee to get Bosh/Amare.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:09 pm
by truwizfan4evr
i talked too twolves fans about foye they see him as a better back up. gard i dont agree i wanna see him start at sg in washington he dont have to be are main guy but he makes up dangerous as a starter
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:13 pm
by TheSecretWeapon
I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:26 pm
by nate33
TheSecretWeapon wrote:I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Stevenson was indeed awful and putrid. I continue to disagree with you about Young.
Young posted a PER of 13.1, an offensive rating of 105 (with the 3rd highest usage rate on the team), and led the team in defensive on/off differential. While that may not be starting-caliber production, it's at least good enough to be an average or above-average NBA reserve - certainly a tier above "putrid". With some modest improvement this offseason (not unreasonable for a player going into his 3rd year), I wouldn't be surprised to see starting-caliber production next year.
And I also agree with Doc that Young is likely to perform much better in Saunders' defined offensive plays rather than EJ's read-and-react system.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:29 pm
by nate33
Oh, and I'm not necessarily advocating rushing to make a trade. Certainly, we shouldn't trade Stevenson before we pump up his trade value. I'm just saying that we have a glut at SG and at some point, a trade is probably in our best interests. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:49 pm
by barelyawake
nate33 wrote:Oh, and I'm not necessarily advocating rushing to make a trade. Certainly, we shouldn't trade Stevenson before we pump up his trade value. I'm just saying that we have a glut at SG and at some point, a trade is probably in our best interests. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.
We have a glut of bad SGs (because they don't play defense -- unless Nick explodes this year). What we have (as Arenas has stated and as we all know) is a lack of size and toughness at PF. And what we have is a running clock as Arenas gets older and our expiring contracts that we've collected over the years get ready to expire. I don't expect a trade. But, if we honestly want to compete, we should make a trade soon to allow the team to gel. A trade for a Brand would free up space for Dom to play (more defense). It would provide credible leadership who can demonstrate defense by example (and act as a mentor for Java). It would also give us someone Arenas would respect and trust to throw the ball to -- unlike now with our youth.
Arenas/Foye
/Dom
Caron/Miller
Brand/Java
Haywood/Oberto
That's the making of a championship team -- with even a defensive specialist at SG. That leaves Nick/Blatche/AJ/expirings/future first as bait. If we get to keep Nick, and he blows-up this season even better. The sooner we stop the happy talk and focus on what will really make us contenders the better. We need to make a trade. That we know. If you want it to help this season, we better not wait too long to "see what we have" -- because the conclusion will be that we are a "pretty good" team without a trade. Thus, there will be no trade (for fear of destroying the great chemistry of this pretty good squad).
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:06 pm
by jholmbe1
barelyawake wrote:
Arenas/Foye
/Dom
Caron/Miller
Brand/Java
Haywood/Oberto
Ugh, no thanks. For all of Jamison's shortcomings the one thing he is great at is staying healthy. i have no interest in trading him for an aging and injury prone player (brand) who has a huge contract. On top of that McGee is not nearly as effective as a PF.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:24 pm
by nate33
barelyawake wrote: I don't expect a trade. But, if we honestly want to compete, we should make a trade soon to allow the team to gel. A trade for a Brand would free up space for Dom to play (more defense).
I agree that getting a physical, defensive-minded PF would be the best way to fix the team. I thought Jamison was an excellent fit in EJ's Princeton system but Doc has me thinking that he won't be nearly as effective in Flip's Hawk offense.
I'd defintely trade Jamison for Brand, and I'd probably include one of our young SG's (Foye or Young) to make it happen. I suspect Philly would prefer Foye (given EJ's history with Young), so be it.
But the guy that intrigues me more is Okafor. I have concerns about Brand's age and recover. Okafor is entering his prime and he's in a situation in New Orleans where I don't think he's a very good fit. He can play some center, but he's not a full time center. Also, he lacks the size and athleticism to truly benefit from Paul's ability to throw alley oops. I think New Orleans would listen to a trade proposal from us if we offered McGee. McGee is a year or two away, but he'll form a deadly combination with Paul once he finally figures things out.
McGee + Miller could work. Or McGee + Stevenson + James + 1st pick. Or McGee + Stevenson + Foye.
The bottom line is that we'd have a killer front court with Butler, Okafor and Haywood, and Jamison off the bench at both forward spots. Okafor could set the picks, clean the defensive glass, and provide some low post offense. He could also slide over to center when we want to go with a more skilled lineup. Jamison would provide instant offense and veteran leadership on the 2nd unit while Arenas sits. We can keep Blatche around because he's cheap depth with upside. At the SG/SF spots, we'd still have Butler plus at least two among: Young, Foye, Miller, Stevenson. It would be perfect.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:24 pm
by barelyawake
I, Doc and CCJ have said why he should play PF (to different degrees). No need to do it again.
Why stay healthy if you have no shot to actually win it all? A player only needs to be healthy for the playoffs (if you make the playoffs). It's this halfstep thinking that will get us exactly nowhere. Risk is our only hope. You're explaining exactly why the Wiz won't trade for Brand. When, in fact, having Brand or losing Brand to injury are BOTH ten times better than having AJ (because the result would be a shot at a historic draft). All, nothing or tread water. I don't wish to "awww shucks maybe next year" for the next five years.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:47 pm
by TheSecretWeapon
Yeah, nate -- "putrid" is too strong a word for Young. I meant it as a descriptor of the group, but I didn't express myself very well. Young's play wasn't putrid -- the group's play was, however.
Just to put a number to this -- according to the "by position" data at 82games, last season the Wizards had a combined backcourt PER of 25.7, good for 2nd worst in the league. Their combined guard PER differential was -10.8, which was worst in the league. And that's with the benefit of designating Butler as the SG when he was on the floor with McGuire (1134 minutes). Even with Butler's 19.7 SG PER (according to 82games) for a significant portion of the team's minutes, they still had one of the league's worst backcourts last season.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:53 pm
by dlts20
TheSecretWeapon wrote:I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Yeah but I dont think you talk about the backcourt rotation without adding Caron in there. I think you have to look at it more as Gil, SG, and Caron with 2 backups. Thats more of the rotation when you start talking about minutes and thats why I said that NY could get in there
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 5:06 pm
by dlts20
I also dont think that we need a "real" trade. I know that Im in the minority here but I actually love the frontline we have and think that by the end of the year everyone will be saying that our front line is one of the best if not thee best. I love Wood, AJ, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto. So many teams would easily take any one of those guys right now. Im not buying this crap about KG makes Boston have this ultimate dominant frontcourt. Perkins? Come on now. AV in Cleveland to go with old slow Shaq & Z? Howard in Orlando to go with those small guys last year? These teams are in no way better then us up front and if you want to say that they are then there is no way you can say there alot better. Again, I think Wood is the best low post big defender in the NBA and none of those stars for those teams can score on him one on one. Its not just talk, its fact. He's shut them down time & time again. Now none of those teams have beast 2nd or 3rd big men. They dont. I am in no way scared of Perkins, AV, and whoever. We can handle all those teams. Thats why we dont need any trade. Now, if you want to trade for cap space and get rid of some of our junk then Im totally fine with that but Im not blowing up our team for Brand or whoever. We dont need that
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 5:49 pm
by truwizfan4evr
lol please stop with these trades im very happy with are roster now i dont see y we need 2 make any deals im excited for there season when yall bring up trades kinda make us feel were not that good i think we a top 4 or 5 in east so im happy with the roster we have now.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 6:02 pm
by barelyawake
truwizfan4evr wrote:lol please stop with these trades im very happy with are roster now i dont see y we need 2 make any deals im excited for there season when yall bring up trades kinda make us feel were not that good i think we a top 4 or 5 in east so im happy with the roster we have now.
I betcha when lil Arenas' hand first dribbled a mansized basketball, he went to bed that night and dreamed, "Maybe one day I'll be good enough to be fourth or fifth best in the East." Dare to dream lil Arenas. Shoot for the stars. Just don't dream of a championship without a trade.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 6:48 pm
by jholmbe1
barelyawake wrote:I betcha when lil Arenas' hand first dribbled a mansized basketball, he went to bed that night and dreamed, "Maybe one day I'll be good enough to be fourth or fifth best in the East." Dare to dream lil Arenas. Shoot for the stars. Just don't dream of a championship without a trade.
Actually we already did make a pretty big trade this off season. So you can't sit here and spout off about how the Wizards have done nothing to get better when in fact they have. If these trades don't work out then maybe you have a point but as of right now we are a much improved team. Nobody knows how much better we will be just like nobody knows how much better any of your trades would actually make us. Chill out and see how the season starts before you get your panties all bunched.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:13 pm
by barelyawake
Yes, we did a "pretty big trade" to get us a back-up point guard and a back-up SF when we needed a starting PF and SG -- thus more trades needed. And, as Dat would say, your typical Washington fan (not from this board) is interested in simply making the playoffs. I'm not. And I don't need a season to playout to know what on paper isn't a championship team. I'm sorry if this is a downer to you. This is my opinion about the team that I want to get better. And I don't think being blind to reality helps much. And I believe Arenas agrees with me since he said he wanted to see us get bigger with more vet bigs. I'm not attempting to argue or be a dick. I'm telling you what IMO is reality. Playing it safe will get us fourth or fifth best in the East with no vision of a future. As a fan, that's not what I want out of any season.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:17 pm
by TheSecretWeapon
dlts20 wrote:TheSecretWeapon wrote:I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Yeah but I dont think you talk about the backcourt rotation without adding Caron in there. I think you have to look at it more as Gil, SG, and Caron with 2 backups. Thats more of the rotation when you start talking about minutes and thats why I said that NY could get in there
I don't think they're looking at Caron as a serious part of the guard rotation. I think their expectation is for Caron to play mostly at SF. I think they view these as the positions:
PG - Arenas, Foye, Crittenton, James
SG - Miller, Foye, Young, Stevenson
SF - Butler, Miller, Jamison, McGuire
PF - Jamison, Blatche, Oberto, McGuire
C - Haywood, McGee, Blatche, Oberto
Moving Butler up to guard creates a logjam there while leaving the team with a relative weakness at one of the forward spots. I don't see a need to do that barring injury or somebody performing far worse or far better than expected.
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:25 pm
by dlts20
TheSecretWeapon wrote:dlts20 wrote:TheSecretWeapon wrote:I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Yeah but I dont think you talk about the backcourt rotation without adding Caron in there. I think you have to look at it more as Gil, SG, and Caron with 2 backups. Thats more of the rotation when you start talking about minutes and thats why I said that NY could get in there
I don't think they're looking at Caron as a serious part of the guard rotation. I think their expectation is for Caron to play mostly at SF. I think they view these as the positions:
PG - Arenas, Foye, Crittenton, James
SG - Miller, Foye, Young, Stevenson
SF - Butler, Miller, Jamison, McGuire
PF - Jamison, Blatche, Oberto, McGuire
C - Haywood, McGee, Blatche, Oberto
Moving Butler up to guard creates a logjam there while leaving the team with a relative weakness at one of the forward spots. I don't see a need to do that barring injury or somebody performing far worse or far better than expected.
No, I totally agree. Infact, I thought everyone was way too hard on Caron last year. I thought he only slipped because he was playing SG and clearly isnt but if he's back at the 3 then he dominates. I brought up the SF thing because you said that its only going to be a 3 guard rotation which maybe true but I said that I think it will be a 4 guard thing because one of those guys will also get Caron's bcackup minutes at the 3. Lets say Gil plays 38 and Caron plays 36. I could see Miller starting and getting like 20min. I could see NY off the bench getting like 20 min and I could see Foye off the bench getting like 30. You see what Im saying. If Caron is only playing 36 then one of those backups will get his 12. I could see NY & Miller playing some 3 with Caron on the bench and both Gil & Foye in at the guards on the 2nd unit or something like that. I think if you break it down by minutes instead of position then it will be 2 guys off the bench with one of them playing some at the 3. Thats why I grouped all them together
Re: What Is Our Lineup?
Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:10 pm
by Pradamaster
TheSecretWeapon wrote:dlts20 wrote:TheSecretWeapon wrote:I don't see any rush in making a trade. Going in, it looks to me like primarily a 3-guard rotation comprised of Arenas, Miller and Foye. I can envision Young getting some playing time as an instant-offense option -- perhaps more if he continues to progress defensively, and if he learns to do "other stuff" like pass now and then, or help out on the boards.
But, keep in mind that last year's guards -- including Stevenson and Young -- were putrid. Awful. Unless guys have improved a lot (and I'm including Stevenson in that "needs improvement" group), the team will be better served going with the "new" backcourt of Arenas-Miller-Foye.
Yeah but I dont think you talk about the backcourt rotation without adding Caron in there. I think you have to look at it more as Gil, SG, and Caron with 2 backups. Thats more of the rotation when you start talking about minutes and thats why I said that NY could get in there
I don't think they're looking at Caron as a serious part of the guard rotation. I think their expectation is for Caron to play mostly at SF. I think they view these as the positions:
PG - Arenas, Foye, Crittenton, James
SG - Miller, Foye, Young, Stevenson
SF - Butler, Miller, Jamison, McGuire
PF - Jamison, Blatche, Oberto, McGuire
C - Haywood, McGee, Blatche, Oberto
Moving Butler up to guard creates a logjam there while leaving the team with a relative weakness at one of the forward spots. I don't see a need to do that barring injury or somebody performing far worse or far better than expected.
I think we're getting two caught up on the differences between SG and SF. I believe Flip when he says they basically are interchangeable in his system. I see no reason why Caron can't be the one to initiate the offense with a hawk cut while Miller/Foye/Stevenson/Young starts the set on the baseline, or vice versa.
Basically, even if Caron isn't a SG, I suspect we'll see him doing a lot of SG-like things on the floor even if he's paired with another SG.
I think the whole SG/SF split is a Princeton-ish way of looking at things rather than a Flip-ish way. Eddie's system was two guards, two forwards and a center, while Flip's is more like a point guard, two wings, an all-purpose PF and a center. In the former example, the difference between Butler playing SG or SF matters. In Flip's system, it doesn't.