nate33 wrote:Hollinger's four factors are: eFG%, DRB%, TOV% and FT/FGA. You outplay your team in these categories and you tend to win more games. I listed them in the order of importance. That is, the most important thing to do is to shoot with efficiency and to prevent other teams from doing so.
Grrr -- I had a post done, and then the site vanished it. Here it is again (short version):
The four factors originally came from Dean Oliver (well, technically from Dean Smith, because that's where Oliver got them, but DeanO wrote about them for years, made them the foundation of his stat work, and put them in his book). Also (very minor point), the rebounding factor is actually offensive rebounding, but it's really a distinction without much meaning because defensive rebounding percentage is simply the reverse of offensive rebounding percentage.
DeanO put rough weights on each factor to show the relative importance of each (pretty easy to replicate). Make efg a 10, then rebounding is a 5-6, turnovers a 3-4, and free throws a 1-2. Different things matter a bit more or less for different teams. Also, free throws have become a bit more important since the league started enforcing no-touch rules on the perimeter.
Through 4 games, the Wizards rank 21st on defense (going by points allowed per 100 possessions). That's not bad given our strength of schedule and the preponderance of road games, but it's not great either. What I found interesting was the way we got here.
Two years ago, we ranked 24th in defense, but we were 26th in eFG% allowed and 10th in turnovers forced. We gambled for steals but were burned an awful lot. We were also dead last in 3-pointers yielded and tied for last in 3P% yielded. Protect the paint, baby!
So far this year, we rank 21st on defense. However, we rank 5th in eFG% allowed and dead last in turnovers generated. We have completely changed our philosophy. We don't gamble at all but at least we're getting a hand in the face. We rank 18th in 3-pointers yielded and 15th in 3P% yielded but we were probably top 5 in both categories prior to the Cleveland game.
I think that Flip's system is more sensible since it focuses on the most important aspect of basketball: shooting efficiency. However, I'm a little concerned with the lack of turnovers forced. It's one thing to rank relatively low in that category, but to be dead last implies that we're never putting pressure on the ball.
Another oddity: The 2007/08 team didn't foul much. We ranked 13th in FT's yielded per FGA. This year, we are hacking away. We rank 27th in FT's yielded per FGA. The good news is that eFG% defense is much more important that minimizing fouls. Indeed, some of the better defensive teams in the league fouled a lot.
FWIW, this team and the 2007/08 team are pretty similar on the glass. The current team ranks 16th in DRB%. The 07/08 team ranked 20th.
The emphasis on challenging shots is important right now. That's the road to real improvement on defense. It might take a while to get there, but the focus is in the right place.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell
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