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I thought it would be a good idea to keep track of our stats this year... I know it's only 3 games in, but we're soooo much better than the last couple years...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2010.html

Some interesting stats after 3 games;

Gil is avg 28ppg on 50% shooting, from both inside (28/56) and out(7/14), 84% from the line... 6,7ast... ORTG: 115
7 Day Dray is by far our second best player, avg 21ppg and 6,3rpg while shootin 71%... OTRG: 140
Wood is almost averaging a DD with 12 & 8,7... But he's shooting an awful 44%...

We're shooting a lil over 50% and 45% from downtown as a team and keeping opponents to 42% and 30% from outside...

Points Per Game: 104.7 (9th of 30) ▪ Opponent Points Per Game: 98.3 (12th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 114.0 (5th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 107.1 (15th of 30)

Again, I know it's just 3 games in, but we finally look like a legit NBA team who can score pretty efficiently and play some average D... Hope we can keep this up....

Thoughts...???

nick young sporting a negative PER and WS.

Nick Young looks like a fish out of water on this team. According to per Blatche is the best player on the team.

Andray has been the team's best player. Blatche has a PER of 30.3 to Gil's 27.8.

Pythagorean wins has the Wizards 8th out of 30 teams. Roughly a 4 seed, if the East and West are balanced (actually 5th behind Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, and Miami--right now Miami is 2nd overall).

Very early, but thanks DaRealHibachi for pointing out that basketball-reference updates daily now. Used to have to wait to the end of the season for yearly stats IIRC.

For the first two to three games league-wide, Seven Day Dray is an MVP candidate.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Andray has been the team's best player. Blatche has a PER of 30.3 to Gil's 27.8.

Well stats with this sample size are really not telling much. Its fun to look at, but not more. According to this JaVale is our 3rd best player with a PER of 22,5

The one thing that's sort of troubling is the free throw shooting disparity. But I guess that's to be expected with a team primarily built on jump shooting.

By the way, in terms of eFG% we are shooting the 6th best in the league with 54.4% and the defense has been the 6th best as we are only allowing 45.3%.

bump to mock nate?

doclinkin wrote:bump to mock nate?

Geez, was this on the front page? I never even saw it.

nate33 wrote:

doclinkin wrote:bump to mock nate?

Geez, was this on the front page? I never even saw it.

Hollinger's four factors are: eFG%, DRB%, TOV% and FT/FGA. You outplay your team in these categories and you tend to win more games. I listed them in the order of importance. That is, the most important thing to do is to shoot with efficiency and to prevent other teams from doing so.

Through 4 games, the Wizards rank 21st on defense (going by points allowed per 100 possessions). That's not bad given our strength of schedule and the preponderance of road games, but it's not great either. What I found interesting was the way we got here.

Two years ago, we ranked 24th in defense, but we were 26th in eFG% allowed and 10th in turnovers forced. We gambled for steals but were burned an awful lot. We were also dead last in 3-pointers yielded and tied for last in 3P% yielded. Protect the paint, baby!

So far this year, we rank 21st on defense. However, we rank 5th in eFG% allowed and dead last in turnovers generated. We have completely changed our philosophy. We don't gamble at all but at least we're getting a hand in the face. We rank 18th in 3-pointers yielded and 15th in 3P% yielded but we were probably top 5 in both categories prior to the Cleveland game.

I think that Flip's system is more sensible since it focuses on the most important aspect of basketball: shooting efficiency. However, I'm a little concerned with the lack of turnovers forced. It's one thing to rank relatively low in that category, but to be dead last implies that we're never putting pressure on the ball.

Another oddity: The 2007/08 team didn't foul much. We ranked 13th in FT's yielded per FGA. This year, we are hacking away. We rank 27th in FT's yielded per FGA. The good news is that eFG% defense is much more important that minimizing fouls. Indeed, some of the better defensive teams in the league fouled a lot.

FWIW, this team and the 2007/08 team are pretty similar on the glass. The current team ranks 16th in DRB%. The 07/08 team ranked 20th.

And here are the individual pace-adjusted per-36 numbers through 4 games:


And the raw per-game numbers:

The stat that jumps out at me: The Wizards are undefeated in games in which Paul Davis has played this season.

daSwami wrote:The stat that jumps out at me: The Wizards are undefeated in games in which Paul Davis has played this season.

Also undefeated in games in which they have outscored their opponents. It's my tried and true strategy; I have no idea why they don't follow it!

fishercob wrote:

daSwami wrote:The stat that jumps out at me: The Wizards are undefeated in games in which Paul Davis has played this season.

Also undefeated in games in which they have outscored their opponents. It's my tried and true strategy; I have no idea why they don't follow it!

Is that you John Madden?

P.S. I want your bus.

nate33 wrote:Hollinger's four factors are: eFG%, DRB%, TOV% and FT/FGA. You outplay your team in these categories and you tend to win more games. I listed them in the order of importance. That is, the most important thing to do is to shoot with efficiency and to prevent other teams from doing so.

Grrr -- I had a post done, and then the site vanished it. Here it is again (short version):

The four factors originally came from Dean Oliver (well, technically from Dean Smith, because that's where Oliver got them, but DeanO wrote about them for years, made them the foundation of his stat work, and put them in his book). Also (very minor point), the rebounding factor is actually offensive rebounding, but it's really a distinction without much meaning because defensive rebounding percentage is simply the reverse of offensive rebounding percentage.

DeanO put rough weights on each factor to show the relative importance of each (pretty easy to replicate). Make efg a 10, then rebounding is a 5-6, turnovers a 3-4, and free throws a 1-2. Different things matter a bit more or less for different teams. Also, free throws have become a bit more important since the league started enforcing no-touch rules on the perimeter.

Through 4 games, the Wizards rank 21st on defense (going by points allowed per 100 possessions). That's not bad given our strength of schedule and the preponderance of road games, but it's not great either. What I found interesting was the way we got here.

Two years ago, we ranked 24th in defense, but we were 26th in eFG% allowed and 10th in turnovers forced. We gambled for steals but were burned an awful lot. We were also dead last in 3-pointers yielded and tied for last in 3P% yielded. Protect the paint, baby!

So far this year, we rank 21st on defense. However, we rank 5th in eFG% allowed and dead last in turnovers generated. We have completely changed our philosophy. We don't gamble at all but at least we're getting a hand in the face. We rank 18th in 3-pointers yielded and 15th in 3P% yielded but we were probably top 5 in both categories prior to the Cleveland game.

I think that Flip's system is more sensible since it focuses on the most important aspect of basketball: shooting efficiency. However, I'm a little concerned with the lack of turnovers forced. It's one thing to rank relatively low in that category, but to be dead last implies that we're never putting pressure on the ball.

Another oddity: The 2007/08 team didn't foul much. We ranked 13th in FT's yielded per FGA. This year, we are hacking away. We rank 27th in FT's yielded per FGA. The good news is that eFG% defense is much more important that minimizing fouls. Indeed, some of the better defensive teams in the league fouled a lot.

FWIW, this team and the 2007/08 team are pretty similar on the glass. The current team ranks 16th in DRB%. The 07/08 team ranked 20th.

The emphasis on challenging shots is important right now. That's the road to real improvement on defense. It might take a while to get there, but the focus is in the right place.

Hey...21st is better than last right? TSW - any chance we might have a top 15 defense before the season's over? At the rate we're going?

82games.com updated their numbers today. Some interesting observations:

Among the major-minute players, only Haywood looks good. Haywood is +3.1. Jamison +0.4. Butler -8.2. Arenas -15.3. Blatche, who has actually played more minutes than Jamison, is -0.4

Nick Young has shot up the charts big time. He is now +7.6, second only to Miller's ridiculous +12.4

Boykins is +6.7

Among the rest of the guys who have played at least 20% of the minutes: Oberto is +3.1, Foye is -6.8, DMac is -5.1. Stevenson is -4.7.

McGee is +1.7 in a meaningless sample size of 15% of the minutes. (Indeed most of these sample sizes are close to meaningless.)

To me, the big surprise is Young's positive influence; as well as the extent of how bad Arenas and Butler have played.

nate, Blatche was better before Jamison came back.

I'm fairly confident he's better at PF with Haywood than he is on an island at C. I bet Blatche is probably better with McGee.

McGee is a guy I think is NOT a meaningless sample. What I think happens is that with Haywood in, the Wizards attempt LESS free throws and convert less. They are more of a halfcourt team with Haywood. He misses a ton of free throws. But Brendan's so awesome defensively and on the offensive glass, he's a positive. With Javale, however, they stay on the free throw line and he converts in transition. I'm convinced McGee can score many more points than Brendan right now. (But he'd give many defensive boards up, he'd get called for fouls, and he won't be the defensive anchor that Brendan is.) I want to see a lot more of McGee. Flip needs to find him minutes.

Flip Saunders needs to play McGee with Haywood! It would likely be extremely effective.

As for how ineffective Butler and Arenas have been, I'm not surprised at all.

The Wizards would flat out be better without either player on the roster right now. Check out this lineup:

Boykins, Young, Jamison, Blatche, Haywood

Bench: Foye, Stevenson, McGee, Oberto

Returning starter: Miller

No Gil or Caron, but better decisionmaking and far less turnovers. Blatche can ball now. So can Nick Young. Foye is in a contract year and would be able to score if nothing else.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:McGee is a guy I think is NOT a meaningless sample. What I think happens is that with Haywood in, the Wizards attempt LESS free throws and convert less. They are more of a halfcourt team with Haywood. He misses a ton of free throws. But Brendan's so awesome defensively and on the offensive glass, he's a positive. With Javale, however, they stay on the free throw line and he converts. I'm convinced McGee can score many more points than Brendan right now. (But he'd give many defensive boards up, he'd get called for fouls, and he won't be the defensive anchor that Brendan is.)

When I say meaningless, I just mean that the small sample size has too much statistical noise to have relevance. McGee has played just 126 minutes. Probably half of his minutes have been in garbage time when the opposition has scrubs in, and the game is already decided. So in the 60 or 70 real minutes of real action, one decent scoring run is going to heavily skew his data. It's pointless to draw any conclusions from it.

And Haywood isn't really missing free throws left and right. He had that one horrific 1/9 game (a game which we managed to win anyhow). Other than that one game, his FT% has been solid. Ignore that Toronto game and he's shooting .684 from the free throw line. That's respectable for a non-jumpshooting center. Incidentally, McGee averages fewer free throws per minute and shoots only marginally better (75%).