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"Gilbert Arenas is not Chauncey Billups!"

This seems to be the gripe du jour about Flip Saunders. I think the complaint is misguided. The fact is, Gilbert Arenas isn't Gilbert Arenas either. He has been a poor shooter and highly turnover prone all season. He has also been a terrible defender. The idea that if Flip would just tell Arenas to be himself and everything will be okay is silly. We've seen Arenas force shots in this offense. So far this season, he has attempted 15 or more shots in 13 games. Care to guess how many times he has shot 50% in those games? Zero. Goose-egg. Nada. 0-fer.

Let's stop pinning Arenas' problems on Flip. Flip is doing everything he can to coax good games out of Arenas. Arenas just isn't getting it done. (Surely rust and injury plays a role. I'm not saying Arenas doesn't have an excuse. I'm just calling it like I see it.)

The other issue is that Arenas is undersized for a SG. He has been terrible on defense against PG's and I think he'll be even worse defensively against SG's. The idea that we can simply move him to SG won't work. Do you really want to see Gilbert Arenas guarding Dwyane Wade? Or even Ben Gordon?

PG is the only position Arenas is fit to play. He needs to learn to play like Chauncey Billups or he's going to have an Iversonesque career. Don't blame Flip. He's just the messenger.

That's the truth of it. He's special when conscious-less shooting is matched by supreme confidence and skill.

A rusty Hibachi being fired up isn't going to warm us through the winter months.

Hoopalotta wrote:That's the truth of it. He's special when conscious-less shooting is matched by supreme confidence and skill.

A rusty Hibachi being fired up isn't going to warm us through the winter months.

Yup... And in the time it takes Gil to gain that confidence and shooting touch back, his teamates need to step up... We all knew Gil wasn't going to be on that level overnight...

Flip is catching too much flak for this disappointment of a team... Some rotational issues notwithstanding, he's doing (or at least trying to do) a "great" job with this team...

Gilbert just needs to be brought-back more slowly, he's hurting the team right now. Figure out a rotation that get's Gilbert comfortable while easing him back into the game, his confidence and skills will grow accordingly. It's too-much too-soon for Gilbert.

Flip needs to tweak his rotations further IMO to get the best out of this group.

* Break-up "The big-3" & play Blatche 30 minutes per game
* Move AJ to SF
* Reduce Gilberts & Caron minutes
* McGee should be playing 10 -15 minutes

closg00 wrote:Gilbert just needs to be brought-back more slowly, he's hurting the team right now. Figure out a rotation that get's Gilbert comfortable while easing him back into the game, his confidence and skills will grow accordingly. It's too-much too-soon for Gilbert.

Flip needs to tweak his rotations further IMO to get the best out of this group.

* Break-up "The big-3" & play Blatche 30 minutes per game
* Move AJ to SF
* Reduce Gilberts & Caron minutes
* McGee should be playing 10 -15 minutes

I agree with everything here except the part about McGee. Flip could stand to play a McGee a bit more, but I don't see all that much room for him if Blatche is playing 30 minutes and Haywood is playing 35.

The main tweaks I would make would be to bring Blatche in for one of Jamison/Butler relatively early in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Jamison and Butler would then share SF duties for the remainder of the half. Depending on matchups, it might be wise to bench Blatche in crunch time, but it's by no means a given.

I'd also like to see Flip experiment with a Boykins/Young backcourt. When Flip brings in Boykins, his tendency is to move Arenas to SG and Young to the bench. Frankly, Young has been outplaying Arenas lately and doesn't deserve to be benched in favor or Arenas. Just let Arenas and Boykins split the PG position and let Young get all the minutes he can handle at SG (with Foye backing him up).

It's been three seasons since Gil's been superstar good. He's not the same player physically.

He's far off confidently and competitively, and I don't see him ever being a superstar again. It would be nice if he could get back to being very good, as he appeared to be in the first two or three games of the season and over the summer. Taking a comprehensive look at what he's done this season, just take a look at his game logs this season. (I focus most on the game score stat--last on the right).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2010/

So far, Gil's had one brilliant game (NJ), three very good games (DAL, TOR x 2), and three or four other games that could be considered above average (first games agains CLE, MIA, DET).

I noticed that the second time he faced Cleveland and Detroit, and both the second and third times he faced Miami; Gilbert's games have been much worse against those teams. Whatever game Gil's got, others have negated him so far the second time around. (Except for Toronto). Not a good sign.

The Wizards are -8.4 points worse with Gil on the court and 8.6 points better with Gil off the court than their competition. They are -17.0 points per 100 possessions worse with Gil.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09WAS2.HTM

(Caron has worked up to only -8.9 points per 100 possessions.)

It's time for Flip to see that Gil's not right. I think Gil needs 3-5 games away from the game. That never happens in the NBA. I don't know why they don't allow guys personal time away. I believe Gilbert has really hurt the Wizards this season. I don't know what's up with him, but something's not right IMO.

To me it's not about how many shots Gilbert is taking or how much he has the ball. Its where he is taking the shots and where has has the ball.

Gilbert thrives in space. Space to beat his man off the dribble, when he can already start looking past his man to see what is there. He thrived in EJ's offense when he had space. Then as he gets more confident, from getting to the basket and getting to the line, his starts shooting his jumpers with more confidence, and you have the Gilbert of old.

I am not educated well enough on the X's and O's of Flips offense against EJ's, but he really doesn't have the room to operate like he did with EJ. I'v seen enough to know that he is mostly back physically, and he will improve more there, but when he has to drive straight into Ben Wallace if he wants to get to the hoop, then he is going to force his mid-range fadeaways.

Yes, one could say that if he has to be given a certain amount of space to succeed then he isn't worth 111 million and maybe isn't as good as we thought. Believe me its tough for me to say that as he is my favorite athlete of all time, but it may be true. But just because we paid him so much money doesn't mean we should force him into being something he isn't. Fact is we need the old Gilbert.

That is my problem with Flip. He has to find way's to get Gilbert in space more, where he can attack. Maybe that means adding some wrinkles from the "Weave-and-Heave", I don't know enough about X's and O's to say exactly what to do, but something needs to be done.

Flip is a smart offensive coach, I am willing to give him more time to get Gil comfortable.

It seems like officiating has changed since his heyday three years ago. Ref's are no longer accepting his "create contact" approach and are whistling him. He was always better at drawing fouls than finishing and now that he can't draw whistles his bread and butter is gone and his confidence is suffering. Compound it with the fact that opposing teams are more willing to let him roll and playing his shot tighter so he doesn't have the wide open looks anymore. The game has changed (though it was never announced) while he was away and we now need to see if he can adjust--or force the league to change back with sheer force of will. The latter is not impossible, but a mighty tall order.

One thing that used to open up his drives and his midrange game was the deep 3. That was honestly probably what made him so good was that you had to guard him up to half court.

Now he usually takes 3s right at the line, the threat is gone and their isn't as much space.

nate33 wrote:"Gilbert Arenas is not Chauncey Billups!"

This seems to be the gripe du jour about Flip Saunders. I think the complaint is misguided. The fact is, Gilbert Arenas isn't Gilbert Arenas either. He has been a poor shooter and highly turnover prone all season. He has also been a terrible defender. The idea that if Flip would just tell Arenas to be himself and everything will be okay is silly. We've seen Arenas force shots in this offense. So far this season, he has attempted 15 or more shots in 13 games. Care to guess how many times he has shot 50% in those games? Zero. Goose-egg. Nada. 0-fer.

Let's stop pinning Arenas' problems on Flip. Flip is doing everything he can to coax good games out of Arenas. Arenas just isn't getting it done. (Surely rust and injury plays a role. I'm not saying Arenas doesn't have an excuse. I'm just calling it like I see it.)

The other issue is that Arenas is undersized for a SG. He has been terrible on defense against PG's and I think he'll be even worse defensively against SG's. The idea that we can simply move him to SG won't work. Do you really want to see Gilbert Arenas guarding Dwyane Wade? Or even Ben Gordon?

PG is the only position Arenas is fit to play. He needs to learn to play like Chauncey Billups or he's going to have an Iversonesque career. Don't blame Flip. He's just the messenger.

good post nate, not unlike a post i made a while ago in the flip appreciation thread:

Zerocious wrote:i dont think flip ever intended gilbert to turn into chauncey. i think flip was seeing how good gilbert was and have him implement some of the true point guard principles while still holding onto the skill set gilbert has. imagine a chauncey scoring 30 and 10. or maybe even better. i think gilbert over analyzed it and got in his own way. flip now sees it will take a longer time to have gilbert understand what he trying to do and thus for gilbert and the teams sake telling gil to go back to his ways of old and slowly work away on the pg skills. that's why he decided to go with gil off the ball, where he is more comfortable.

to summarize: i never thought it was flips fault of trying to make gilbert into someone he wasn't. i think that is what gil understood it to be. this could be flips fault for not estimating gils ability to understand that, but he sees it now. there's a reason gilbert is not the leader of this team and will never be.

gil needs to be gil, flip needs to be flip. they will meet somwhere in the middle down the road on their own terms and lots of W's in their pocket

***********

fifthstop wrote:It seems like officiating has changed since his heyday three years ago. Ref's are no longer accepting his "create contact" approach and are whistling him. He was always better at drawing fouls than finishing and now that he can't draw whistles his bread and butter is gone and his confidence is suffering. Compound it with the fact that opposing teams are more willing to let him roll and playing his shot tighter so he doesn't have the wide open looks anymore. The game has changed (though it was never announced) while he was away and we now need to see if he can adjust--or force the league to change back with sheer force of will. The latter is not impossible, but a mighty tall order.

i think this is a valid observation. Gil isn't gil nor can he become who he was because his environment has changed. on top of that he's asked to play a different role under a new regime. can you spell disater? (edit: << i obviously can't.

anyway, he's not getting the calls he's used to getting since he's 'creating all the contact'. he used to get those calls. he would then also MAKE them danged foul shot.

i think his three is still there, but it lacks confidence. now he's just become someone who's trying to shoot through a slump rather than adjusting and be more valuable to the team in other ways. ALL of this while dealing with not knowing who he is, who he needs to be, who he can be, where he is, and who the hell is telling him what to do!!!!!!!!

Flip would be a nimrod of a coach not to appreciate Gil's first step. Even the arthroscopically rejuvenated first step can still get past 99% of the league. I don't think the problem is in the step or the refs. It's still psychological. He hasn't been playing against live opponents at game speed in eons. he's only been playing at full speed for 6 weeks. If any of us hypothetically stepped away from our pickup games for 2 years but kept in shape, it would take us longer than 6 weeks for the muscle memory of playing ball to fully kick back in. I know after i don't play for a while, the rim looks smaller, the basket farther away, and my confidence shaken AND stirred.

hitting that layup against toronto would have done wonders for arenas's game. he would start getting his swag back. however the fact that he was even in position to finish that play means that he's starting to relearn exactly how many steps it takes him to get from the 3 point line to the rim, exactly how far to extend to flip up a layup without it getting blocked, how much space a spin move takes, and other minute details that at one point was second nature. combine re-learning all these basketball nuances with a new system, an uncooperative butler, consistent losing, being forced to sg in end-game situations because of boykins, and doing this with rumors swirling that your ugly hoover of a fiance was shagging shaq?

i dunno, all things considered i think this season has played out to my expectations. a few good games (dallas opener, cleveland, the first toronto game, etc) with a lot of growing pains thrown in. n1 and blatche maturing. picking up a lucky penny in earl the squirrel... come on guys. where are your good tidings and christmas cheer?

It's one thing to force shots, it's another thing to force shots while not having a clear view in one's mind of what they're supposed to be doing. To me, I see a player whose mind is pulling him in two directions - "take the shot versus look for other options". Gilbert is thinking too much, and it's not really Flip's fault either, it's the fault of everyone he's had to listen to say his game is somehow fundamentally flawed.

I will admit that Gilbert probably needs some time off, but more than that, he needs players he can actually work with.

closg00 has the right idea: Trade Butler (really for anything that you can get), maybe trade Jamison, give Blatche and Haywood 30-35 mpg, start Mike Miller. Get a big PG (could that be Foye?)that you can play Arenas at SG with from time to time (and I reject the premise that Arenas will be worse defending SGs - obviously he shouldn't be defending D-Wade, but I'd rather have him playing off-ball defense than trying to guard dribble penetration), and all of a sudden, you have 3 good passers on the court nearly all the time, and the ball will move much more instead of disappearing into the Butler/Jamison black holes.

i think he also feels as if he would be seen as selfish be taking on a larger scoring load. This was carons (and twans) team last season. there is some friction between gil and caron, which might lead to gil's hesitancy and trying to not take over the team again...he doesn't consider himself a leader and as all to happy to let it fall on caron and twan. but he doesn't seem to realize that it IS his team, and it goes as he goes!

CCJ doesn't dare say I told you so, but he did. He was against paying $111m for a player coming back from 3 knee surgeries (done at Sibley for some crazy reason) that wouldn't be the same. The offense looks like it will come around once he gets a little more elevation going to the basket and the shot and game speed come around and the refs start giving him some respect. That should bring some positive swag back. However, the defense of "Agent zero defense" was always an issue but now he can't stay in front of anyone. He actually never did before either but at least was a threat to get steals. He and L-boogie playing the passing lanes didn't work in the playoffs but was fun to watch during the regular season. And his doubling down unnecessarily and giving up open threes to his man was always infuriating. But its a whole different level now. His current D is so bad they have to go to zone to protect him and the Wiz zone is terrible. I know CCJ was just keeping it real, but I'm staying positive and really believe Gil's knee and game in general will come around. But the defense is a concern considering he is our $111m man.

Chauncy was a solid defensive pg. Until Gil gets himself straightened out, Nate looks right and NY and Foye need more playing time. Maybe this is one of those injuries that needs a bit longer to recover from.

fifthstop wrote:It seems like officiating has changed since his heyday three years ago. Ref's are no longer accepting his "create contact" approach and are whistling him. He was always better at drawing fouls than finishing and now that he can't draw whistles his bread and butter is gone and his confidence is suffering. Compound it with the fact that opposing teams are more willing to let him roll and playing his shot tighter so he doesn't have the wide open looks anymore. The game has changed (though it was never announced) while he was away and we now need to see if he can adjust--or force the league to change back with sheer force of will. The latter is not impossible, but a mighty tall order.

that's one of the biggest differences I see - he's not getting to the stripe/calls,
not getting opp in the penalty and in foul trouble. A few calls here and
there, which can be a fairly subtle thing, and this conversation sounds a
lot different. It has repercussions for everyone on the floor.

edit to add - I do agree he is also not playing instinctively, thinking too much
about what he should be doing instead of letting it come natural.

as for his D, I didn't think it was that bad, except I am noticing he's
getting beat for penetration but I guess I'm not down on him that much
for that since lots of good PGs get beat that way by the opp.

^^^^^^

Donaghy alleges that the NBA issued a notice to referees indicating that certain fouls that were committed on Kobe Bryant had been incorrectly missed by referees in previous games. Donaghy reasoned that Bryant was therefore due for a round of favorable calls.

"I knew that Kobe Bryant was basically going to be given the opportunity to get to the foul line if somebody as much as breathed on him," said Donaghy, who placed winning bets on the Lakers based on this conclusion.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/0 ... 82083.html

If Stern can send-down orders to go light on Kobe, then he can certainly "give the order" to not give those contact-fouls to Gilbert unless the foul is obvious. Gilbert is not getting those calls like he used to.

dobrojim wrote:as for his D, I didn't think it was that bad, except I am noticing he's
getting beat for penetration but I guess I'm not down on him that much
for that since lots of good PGs get beat that way by the opp.

I was singing that tune for a while too. I can accept when guys like Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey beat him on penetration. That's going to happen. But it's totally unacceptable for guys like Sucky Atkins and Jose Calderon to beat him on penetration. Arenas has got to play better defense. He no longer has the excuse that he is carrying the offensive load.

nate33 wrote:

dobrojim wrote:as for his D, I didn't think it was that bad, except I am noticing he's
getting beat for penetration but I guess I'm not down on him that much
for that since lots of good PGs get beat that way by the opp.

I was singing that tune for a while too. I can accept when guys like Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey beat him on penetration. That's going to happen. But it's totally unacceptable for guys like Sucky Atkins and Jose Calderon to beat him on penetration. Arenas has got to play better defense. He no longer has the excuse that he is carrying the offensive load.

Yup. The worst thing is that Gil goes through stretches where his defensive effort is non-existent. It wasn't just that he couldn't stay in front of Stucky---Stucky was going by him and Gil didn't even move. I don't know if he is tired, or confused about his defensive responsibilities, or what... but that one play where Stucky faked left and then drove right to the hoop around Gil was PATHETIC. I swear that Gil did not even take a step.

It would be one thing if Gil were simply limited by his injuries and didn't have the quickness to defend. But I don't think that's the case.

Gil was a powerful sprinter when he was a superstar it was almost like he was taking off from sprinter blocks when he decided to drive the lane he was so powerful that defenders would have to commit violent fouls just to slow him down..that's how powerful his burst was and when lept off one foot.. Thing beauty like a rocket...so much lift that even when bigmen bumped him he was still rising. That was true superstar gifts. Sprinting leap. Vince carter can jump but he cant go trackstar jump--vince can't sprint and leap like gil..no one could. A lot guys can sprint but don't have power..and a lot of guys can jump but can't sprint and jump at the same time. Gil could do both with coordination. No one else in the league had that com ibation except maybe wade. Kobe aint a sprinter..vince nope...baron nope..iverson sprints but doesn't have the body. That was arenas super power. Not his defence..not his passing. But ability sprint and jump and he was sturdy build to absorb contact and so coordinated with long arms that he could finish forcing the refs to bow down and worship..by not beglecting the and one call...on his next drive. Gil would score irregardless of the foul. Because he was moving toward the basket and leaping sprinter...only dwade comes even close. No other player in the league in last ten years outside of wade came close to gils explosvie burst leap with power after take off. His body was coasting in the air at sprinter speed and the collision.. Refs had to call it because a big man really had to collide hard with him to stop him he moved to fast to set up for the blocj.

WizarDynasty wrote:Gil was a powerful sprinter when he was a superstar it was almost like he was taking off from sprinter blocks when he decided to drive the lane he was so powerful that defenders would have to commit violent fouls just to slow him down..that's how powerful his burst was and when lept off one foot.. Thing beauty like a rocket...so much lift that even when bigmen bumped him he was still rising. That was true superstar gifts. Sprinting leap. Vince carter can jump but he can go trackstar jump. That was arenas super power. Not his defence..not his passing. But ability sprint and jump and he was sturdy build to absorb contact and so coordinated with long arms that he could finish forcing the refs to bow down and worship..by not beglecting the and one call...on his next drive. Gil would score irregardless of the foul. Because he was moving toward the basket and leaping sprinter...only dwade comes even close. No other player in the league in last ten years outside of wade came close to gils explosvie burst leap with power after take off. His body was coasting in the air at sprinter speed and the collision.. Refs had to call it because a big man really had to collide hard with him to stop him he moved to fast to set up for the blocj.

Good memories of the past. I wonder what fraction of his former talent will Gilbert have when he has shaken-off the rust?