RealGM

1. Move Jamison to starting SF.

Blatche and Oberto provide much better defense at PF than Jamison. Jamison's hard to defend at SF and is much more inclined to post up there. Jamison's rebounding at SF would help the team. Look at how size helps teams like the Lakers and Celtics. Their 7 footers are effective PFs. Blatche can match up with them. Having Jamison at SF would enable both McGee and Oberto more minutes.

Biggest reason: CHANGE HISTORY! Flip needs to realize that Jamison and Butler cannot stop anybody. They are atrocious defensively, particularly late in games. Make one of them the sixth man. I think Jamison's been more effective than Butler, and is probably better at SF than Caron.

2. Start Nick Young at SG.

Nick Young is the most complete SG on the team. He has demonstrated the ability to score and defend. He's better than Stevenson. The team's been a lot more successful with Young on the floor than with Stevenson.

Young should be the SG at least until Miller comes back.

ALL FLIP SAUNDERS NEEDS TO DO IS start Young and Blatche and move Jamison to SF. Butler needs to be the sixth man.

When the time comes the Wizards need to trade Butler and/or Jamison. I think in the short run, however, the team would win a whole lot more games if Flip didn't jack the lineups to be poor both on offense and defense.

Agree 100%! Someone send this to Flip! I am sick of losing to teams like the Pacers!!!

I maintain that Butler has been a very good defender this season so I don't think that lineup will help us defensively all that much. That said, I think it'll help the offense quite a bit. Blatche and Jamison blend into Flip's system much better than Butler does.

I like it.

I agree with Nate that Butler is playing fairly good D, but he simply doesn't fit in with the starting unit right now.

Going into the season, we thought that we'd have one of the stronger benches in the East. Blatche has been consistent, and Boykins has been a nice little surprise. But the others have struggled.

With Blatche at the 4, Butler gets to lead a potent second unit with Foye and a healthy Miller. With Butler as the offensive focus, he won't have to worry about fitting in with Arenas as much; perhaps he can even handle the ball a bit more as a point forward. I know, I know; Butler's been extremely careless with the ball this year. But perhaps he'll be more comfortable in a creator role, akin to how he was used over the past two years, instead of the quick, efficient scorer/finisher role that he's having to play now.

Of course, this lineup means that we'd have to rely more on Oberto and, yes, McGee, as our backups. Still, I see no reason not to try it.

taken from the wiz-pacers game thread:

Shanghai Kid wrote:On the brightside, if you take away the free throws, Gilbert actually is getting better as the season progresses.

His numbers so far in December-

22ppg, 8.2 apg, 4.7 rpg, 43% FG, 2.8 To's

These numbers are including an eight point stinker against Detroit where he only took 9 shots. If you take that game out he's averaging 25ppg. 2.8 turnovers stands out, as he was highly turnover prone to start the season.

The freethrows have been a disaster. The question is, do we believe that's going to last forever? Did Gilbert suddenly become a 70% freethrow shooter, or is it just a mental thing he has to overcome? I believe the latter.

Put this all in perspective, this is the second month of Gil's comeback after a two year layoff. Who knows where he will be by February-March?

I'm actually confident that Gilbert will not only get better, but by next season will be completely back to his old self. I'm not saying any of that excuses his defense, but at his very best his offense will make up for it if we surround him with the right players.

Although very, very encouraging: (here comes sarcasm)....

Yay, whoop whoop, gil yay whooooottt, TRIPLE DOUBLE..........L vs pacers

nate33 wrote:I maintain that Butler has been a very good defender this season so I don't think that lineup will help us defensively all that much. That said, I think it'll help the offense quite a bit. Blatche and Jamison blend into Flip's system much better than Butler does.

I disagree about the defense not being better without him next to Jamison. A frontcourt of Jamison / Oberto / Haywood is way better defensively than Butler / Jamison / Haywood.

Butler can still play 25-30 minutes every game, with the vast majority of those minutes at SF. I'd just rather not have him in there with Antawn much at all.

keynote wrote:I like it.

I agree with Nate that Butler is playing fairly good D, but he simply doesn't fit in with the starting unit right now.

Going into the season, we thought that we'd have one of the stronger benches in the East. Blatche has been consistent, and Boykins has been a nice little surprise. But the others have struggled.

With Blatche at the 4, Butler gets to lead a potent second unit with Foye and a healthy Miller. With Butler as the offensive focus, he won't have to worry about fitting in with Arenas as much; perhaps he can even handle the ball a bit more as a point forward. I know, I know; Butler's been extremely careless with the ball this year. But perhaps he'll be more comfortable in a creator role, akin to how he was used over the past two years, instead of the quick, efficient scorer/finisher role that he's having to play now.

Of course, this lineup means that we'd have to rely more on Oberto and, yes, McGee, as our backups. Still, I see no reason not to try it.

A few minutes here and there for Oberto is not a bad thing. Oberto doesn't hurt the team at PF when he's got a shotblocker and another rebounder. He's a superior passer.

I believe Arenas - Young - Jamison - Oberto - Haywood could be very effective.

Also, I think McGee with Blatche is something Flip plays far too little. McGee gets a lot of dunks and shows more passion than most of the guys on this team. He needs to be playing through mistakes. Also, as good as Haywood is, he can't begin to finish around the basket or score as well as McGee does. McGee's upside warrants that he play at least 10-15 minutes a game.

Not playing a 7 footer and going small with Jamison at PF, when you also have Blatche are mistakes that Saunders needs to rectify ASAP.

I don't think that works.. Personally, I don't see a combination of Wizards that will be able to defend well for many stretches of a game..

I do believe you take away advantages with moving a player like Jamison from the 4 spot.. He is a unique stretch-4 and has an advantage over there...Puttin him at the 3 spot with the two bigs you suggested will really mess up floor spacing and ultimately take away his strengths as a player.. Though, you would get a few more post up opportunities with him there... However, defending other 3's will also limit his exquisite rebounding ability..

Jamison is in a tough spot.. IMO, he would be an ideal fit for a team like the Cavs or the Heat and if he ever found his way on the Magic, forget about it, they would win it all..

The Wizards have zero interior play (as you guys know)-- you don't really have the ability to work your offense inside-out.. Zero post passers... Furthermore, the PG play is simply not there..And you obviously don't have a feared player anymore in Gil, that could command much attention from the top of the key on dribble penetration..

I just don't think there is a combination that works here anymore..The Wiz are missing key components and they simply don't play as a team on either end of the floor..

Even though he wasn't a strong contributor, I always felt that Antonio Daniels was truly a glue guy for your team.. There's something to be said for having guys like that on the bench..

The talent alone can get the Wiz a victory on some nights, I just don't think there's enough there to really be any type of factor moving forward...

No question that the Wizards have lots of problems and aren't looking like any kind of contenders, but I think most of your individual points are off base, L&H_05.

Blatche is not going to mess up floor spacing seeing as that he's a very solid shooter for a power forward (40% EFG on his jumpers). he's better spotting up than Butler really, at least out to 20' or so. Jamison at the three will create problems on defense, not offense.

The interior defenders are pretty decent so long as we're talking about Blatche and Haywood. I guess you mean that we have "zero post scorers" rather than players? But Blatche is actually our best post scorer and passer and I think when he becomes a starter he'll show that, though he'll need to develop a few more moves. He has good vision while being a bit mistake prone, but most nights he doesn't have the green light to get too fancy with things offensively, so he holds back a bit so as to not get the hook (unlike, for example, Butler).

Gil can still penetrate just fine and demands plenty of attention, even if rusty and unreliable at this point. He's on an upswing as far as movement, attacking and ball handling aside from poor clutch play. I would agree with your overall assessment that actual 'point' play is a problem though.

Your final conclusion of the status of the team sounds about right, but your diagnosis of the particular problems seems pretty far off. Basically we have wildly undisciplined offensive players at the top of our roster with very poor chemistry and they huck up wild shots while giving an erratic effort. That's about 90% of the problem.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:1. Move Jamison to starting SF.

Blatche and Oberto provide much better defense at PF than Jamison. Jamison's hard to defend at SF and is much more inclined to post up there. Jamison's rebounding at SF would help the team. Look at how size helps teams like the Lakers and Celtics. Their 7 footers are effective PFs. Blatche can match up with them. Having Jamison at SF would enable both McGee and Oberto more minutes.

Biggest reason: CHANGE HISTORY! Flip needs to realize that Jamison and Butler cannot stop anybody. They are atrocious defensively, particularly late in games. Make one of them the sixth man. I think Jamison's been more effective than Butler, and is probably better at SF than Caron.

2. Start Nick Young at SG.

Nick Young is the most complete SG on the team. He has demonstrated the ability to score and defend. He's better than Stevenson. The team's been a lot more successful with Young on the floor than with Stevenson.

Young should be the SG at least until Miller comes back.

ALL FLIP SAUNDERS NEEDS TO DO IS start Young and Blatche and move Jamison to SF. Butler needs to be the sixth man.

When the time comes the Wizards need to trade Butler and/or Jamison. I think in the short run, however, the team would win a whole lot more games if Flip didn't jack the lineups to be poor both on offense and defense.

All we can do is keep hoping this kind of move gets done soon. Before the season started we were all posting about how should start. I though for various reason, Nick would end up being the starter at SG. Partly because of his talent and size and partly because it is the best place to put him where he can learn and play under control. I wasnt so sure he would start the season there. Same with moving one of CB or AJ to the bench. I didnt think Flip as a new coach could do this right away. You cant come in and rock the boat against your vet players who have been all stars in the past. Besides, EG has been wanting to see what GA, CB and AJ could do if all were healthy.

But as we recently saw, Nick did work his way into the start SG. Why he got moved back out for DS was confusing to me. Kind of had me down on Flip for doing that last game. I saw that as regression for Flip. But maybe he did it to help Gil get back into a grove. Hard to argue when Gil posted a triple double.

This roster is still a little challenging to optimize. It would be easier if McGee was a full blown legit back up center and we had one more big body down there riding the bench. Berto really isn't the answer. But with what we have, McGee and Blatche should be able to cover the back up minutes at center and Berto is ok. He fouls to much but he can pass and understands the game.

Also, adding Mini me is showing what we can do with a legit sure PG option.

But we have a log jam at SG. I want Gil to get at least 10 minutes at SG a game but you have Nick, Foye, MM and DS. DS shouldnt even be here so I dont want him playing over Nick who is way more talented and seems to finally be maturing. Plus is young, athletic and has long term value to the team. Nick was a big question mark coming into the season but I think he may finally get it. I havent figure out what to do with Foye. I really dont want him at PG because he is to much of a tweener. Id rather Boykins have those minutes. That means he has to play SG which means you have to move MM to SF more. If you do that, then you have AJ, CB and MM at SF and your clogged up there. Once MM gets healthy, there is going to be a lot of log jams. Playing CB anywhere means taking minutes from MM or Blatche, neither of which I want to see.

This is probably the main problem. There is squeeze from the top and the bottom and it shows up at SF wear we have two vet high dollar players in AJ and CB and we just dont need both.

Funny thing is, with the record we have, we have to many players. We really dont even need CB. Even coming off the bench. It would make the line ups easier.

Gil
NY
AJ
AB
BH

This line up is tall and athletic. There has everything you need. Star established talent with Gil as PG, long armed scoring young up and coming talent at SG, vet leadership, scoring with range and rebounding at SF, young tall up and coming 7 day with range, handles and passing at PF, and a vet strong tall center who can rebound. 3 vets and 2 up and coming younger vets.

Gil starts off getting everyone involved. We feed the post. Gil and Nick share shots from the outside and drive as Gil gets warmed up. Nick should focus a lot of D to start. Everyone plays team ball. Nick learns to be a better pro with these players around him.

Then maybe

Mini Me
MM
AJ
AB
McGee

3 vets and 2 younger players.

or

Gil
MM
DMAC
McGee
Haywood

3 vets and 2 younger players

Thats a nine player rotation. Foye is Gil insurance. DMAC is used for D and energy. Your additional reserves are Berto, Foye, and whatever big man you get for CB. Go for a solid bench front court player and draft pick(s) or all draft picks. They give use the best flexibility from trades.

We should always have some combo of Haywood, Blatche and McGee in the post. Then from there, balance out PF, SG, and SF with shooting, height, defense and experience.

I was a big time CB fan over his time here but I think it may be time for him to get moved. To many high priced cooks in the kitchen.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:

keynote wrote:I like it.

I agree with Nate that Butler is playing fairly good D, but he simply doesn't fit in with the starting unit right now.

Going into the season, we thought that we'd have one of the stronger benches in the East. Blatche has been consistent, and Boykins has been a nice little surprise. But the others have struggled.

With Blatche at the 4, Butler gets to lead a potent second unit with Foye and a healthy Miller. With Butler as the offensive focus, he won't have to worry about fitting in with Arenas as much; perhaps he can even handle the ball a bit more as a point forward. I know, I know; Butler's been extremely careless with the ball this year. But perhaps he'll be more comfortable in a creator role, akin to how he was used over the past two years, instead of the quick, efficient scorer/finisher role that he's having to play now.

Of course, this lineup means that we'd have to rely more on Oberto and, yes, McGee, as our backups. Still, I see no reason not to try it.

A few minutes here and there for Oberto is not a bad thing. Oberto doesn't hurt the team at PF when he's got a shotblocker and another rebounder. He's a superior passer.

I believe Arenas - Young - Jamison - Oberto - Haywood could be very effective.

Also, I think McGee with Blatche is something Flip plays far too little. McGee gets a lot of dunks and shows more passion than most of the guys on this team. He needs to be playing through mistakes. Also, as good as Haywood is, he can't begin to finish around the basket or score as well as McGee does. McGee's upside warrants that he play at least 10-15 minutes a game.

Not playing a 7 footer and going small with Jamison at PF, when you also have Blatche are mistakes that Saunders needs to rectify ASAP.

And McGee is a core part of our future so we should be investing in him
And he has one of, if not, the best PER on the team. This is using data a saw in a recent post.
And he will run the other teams big into the ground. The kid has wings. He loves to run.
And because the kind of dunks he makes raise the whole team and the fans energy level.

And lastly, if we are going to make the playoffs, we better have a more comfortable and established McGee to help out. If not, Haywood, Blatche and Berto arent enough to handle the better teams. AJ is ok as long as they dont have an athletic awesome PF. We are going to need the depth that McGee would provide us.

L&H_05 wrote:I don't think that works.. Personally, I don't see a combination of Wizards that will be able to defend well for many stretches of a game..

I do believe you take away advantages with moving a player like Jamison from the 4 spot.. He is a unique stretch-4 and has an advantage over there...Puttin him at the 3 spot with the two bigs you suggested will really mess up floor spacing and ultimately take away his strengths as a player.. Though, you would get a few more post up opportunities with him there... However, defending other 3's will also limit his exquisite rebounding ability..

Jamison is in a tough spot.. IMO, he would be an ideal fit for a team like the Cavs or the Heat and if he ever found his way on the Magic, forget about it, they would win it all..

The Wizards have zero interior play (as you guys know)-- you don't really have the ability to work your offense inside-out.. Zero post passers... Furthermore, the PG play is simply not there..And you obviously don't have a feared player anymore in Gil, that could command much attention from the top of the key on dribble penetration..

I just don't think there is a combination that works here anymore..The Wiz are missing key components and they simply don't play as a team on either end of the floor..

Even though he wasn't a strong contributor, I always felt that Antonio Daniels was truly a glue guy for your team.. There's something to be said for having guys like that on the bench..

The talent alone can get the Wiz a victory on some nights, I just don't think there's enough there to really be any type of factor moving forward...

I disagree on many of your points.

1 - Gil has shown way more then most would have hoped for so soon after two years off. He just posted a triple double. He is warming up nicely. Im not putting any limits on him yet. If he was hitting his FTs, we would have won two more game with him clinching them and we would all be talking about how he is back. Dont paint Gil with such low expectations just yet.


2- AJ has played SF and played it well. He does also play PF well, but it really depends on the match up. There are teams he can burn at PF and there are teams he can burn at SF. But there are teams he is a terrible match up against at PF. His rebounding will still happen as be posts up smaller SF around the hoop. When he is away from the hoop, which he already does as a PF, you will have Haywood, Blatche, Roberto and McGee grabbing those rebounds. I dont think we would be shorting ourselves with rebounding by making this move.

3- Interior Play. Again, McGee is an ally op and dunking machine. He adds the leaps in the post that we are lacking. Haywood while not a great dunker, he does get his and provides power down there. He is also great at offensive rebounds. Blatche give you the blend. He has some nice weakside dunks and misdirection moves around the basket. And he can pull his player out and shoot or drive by them and dish or finish.

4- PG play is there. The combo of Gil and Boykins provides plenty of PG play.


As for the talent not being here, I think the problem is more that we have to much talent and some of it is established vet talent that is getting in the way of us playing the right combo that would produce more as a team. Same thing you just saw the Skins go through. Portis is good but he has to go. Make to much to not play, but was never the right running back for them. We are now seeing their young receivers and Davis and what a healthier more powerful running back can do.

This team has great talent. We just have to turn the page and get it lined up properly. And, we most likely have one to many high priced vet players. Specially if we have any hopes of keeping Haywood and MM.

Swiped from ML's blog.

I also vote for more time for Nick Young. I realize it's counterintuitive, but there is some fairly strong statistical evidence building that Young actual plays good defense.

From 82games.com, here is the Wizards offensive and defensive efficiency (points per 48 minutes) depending on who was on the floor last year:

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809WAS1.HTM

So the Wizards only gave up 99.4 points per 48 minutes while Young was on the floor. Compare that e.g. to 105.1 for Butler and 104.4 for Jamison.

Well, last year was a weird year and it was hard to tell whether winning as many games as possible was that much of a priority as the season wore on, so maybe you'd want to dismiss those numbers. This year's numbers tell the same story, though.

This season, 82 games is showing points per possession, a slightly different number which controls for pace:

http://www.82games.com/0910/0910WAS1.HTM

So the Wizards are only giving up 1.01 points per possession with Young on the floor, vs. 1.08 points per possession for Butler and 1.12 points per possession for Jamison and Arenas.

I realize Young still has a lot to learn and seems to lose focus at times. Those stats are pretty compelling, though. It seems that his mistakes on D are easily outweighed by the other stuff he accomplishes.


Posted by: joe_sill | December 14, 2009 1:49 PM

joe_sill clearly follows this board. I've been saying this for weeks. Indeed, we have a whole thread on the matter.

I'd even take it a step farther, I'd move both Jamison and Butler to the bench in favor of Blatche at the 4 and Miller, when he comes back, at the 3.

Butler and Jamison can split time between positions 2 through 4, and Blatche can be featured in a small lineup at the 5 to spell Haywood.

A lineup of Arenas/Young/Miller/Blatche/Haywood has a height advantage that's hard to ignore, and gives us a great mix between slashers and shooters.

Between Blatche, Arenas and Miller I also see a lineup with much better ball movement which could give Young the ball in spots where he's most effective, and it would also surround him with perimeter players that will create space for Nick Young in iso.

Politically this could be a bad move for team chemistry because of the egos involved, but I think that lineup would be a whole more effective and would spread the talent out more evenly.

hermitkid wrote:Politically this could be a bad move for team chemistry because of the egos involved, but I think that lineup would be a whole more effective and would spread the talent out more evenly.

If nothing else, try the lineup for an extended stretch in the middle of the 2nd quarter or something. If it does indeed work, then you can approach the politically sensitive issue of benching Butler/Jamison.

Personally, I wouldn't be so quick to conclude that benching Jamison is the answer. I still vividly recall how bad our offense was when Jamison was out with the shoulder injury. It's Arenas and Butler who have the terrible on/off differentials. Jamison's on/off numbers are fine (+0.0 to be exact, which isn't bad for a starter going up against starting-caliber opposition).

nate, I recall posting last year that the +/- numbers for Young and Blatche were better last season than those of Butler and Jamison. In the season where veterans complained about young guys, I think the young guys were at least as effective.

This season, Flip Saunders has been persistent in playing DeShawn Stevenson, against all statistical evidence of effectiveness. He's played Stevenson just to get Arenas and Butler on the same page, when the stats show very strongly this season that Arenas' defense has been horrific and that Butler's been highly ineffective as well.

I don't know who reads this forum, but one guy who should is Flip Saunders.

Blatche and Young deserve to start on this team. Arenas makes too much money to rightly bench, and he's coming back from a long injury. (I actually am very encouraged that he played hard enough to get a triple double. If he hangs in there, he'll be a real good offensive player pretty soon IMO). Butler, OTOH, doesn't fit with Flip's system. Additionally, he and Jamison do not defend well and he and Arenas have not played well together until the last game.

I believe the single biggest problem with this team, besides injuries to Miller and Jamison, has been COACHING. The coach has consistently played the wrong group of players.

Go back to the game logs of the games early in the season that the Wizards failed to score 90 points and lost by more than 10. Each game, he had Stevenson and Oberto play heavy minutes, and Young and McGee played virtually no minutes.

Forward to the games they won 4 out of 5. Young played over 30 minutes. Sure, the opponents were pretty weak, but the point is the Wizards scored well and Young played some good basketball. He shut down Dwayne Wade!

Forward to the last loss. Young plays very limited minutes, registers a +12, but goes back to the bench. At the very end, with desperation set in, Flip puts McGee in with 0.1 second. McGee doesn't go to the rim. Flip chews him out at the end of the game! But he's not the one missing FTs and allowing penetration and dunks by Hansbrough. He's not covering Dunleavy at the end. Arenas, Jamison, Stevenson--guys not getting it done had to d with the loss.

I BELIEVE THIS TEAM INJURIES AND ALL should have 3 or 4 more wins. I do not think Flip has done well, except for in about 3 or 4 games where he coached excellent ball.

Flip needs to realize this team lacks athleticism and has some selfish veterans who think they're a little better than they are. I like Jamison because he consistently plays harder than 90% of the other players. Butler complicates things, as does Gil.

All this team needs to do is play guys who will share the ball, not take the quick shot, and who will play both ends. Right now Young and Blatche do that. Flip needs to adjust.

Stats have been bearing out all I post.

Screw egos.

Win some games!

Flip has had 21 games to not hurt feelings. I want to see him figure out how not to look terrible against bad teams.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Screw egos.

Win some games!

Flip has had 21 games to not hurt feelings. I want to see him figure out how not to look terrible against bad teams.

Indeed. If someone has a problem with their benching, tell them they can file a complaint about it when they win more than a third of their games.

hermitkid wrote:I'd even take it a step farther, I'd move both Jamison and Butler to the bench in favor of Blatche at the 4 and Miller, when he comes back, at the 3.

Butler and Jamison can split time between positions 2 through 4, and Blatche can be featured in a small lineup at the 5 to spell Haywood.

A lineup of Arenas/Young/Miller/Blatche/Haywood has a height advantage that's hard to ignore, and gives us a great mix between slashers and shooters.

Between Blatche, Arenas and Miller I also see a lineup with much better ball movement which could give Young the ball in spots where he's most effective, and it would also surround him with perimeter players that will create space for Nick Young in iso.

Politically this could be a bad move for team chemistry because of the egos involved, but I think that lineup would be a whole more effective and would spread the talent out more evenly.

+1

That lineup sure looks good on paper.

If egos got in the way I'd love to see Jamison go to a team like Orlando or San Antonio, where he could win a ring. Butler could fetch a serious talent in trade as well.