Duke's team next season

[jman3134]

What are your thoughts on them? Sulaimon is in and so is Amile Jefferson. Alex Murphy is severely underrated at this point and will probably start for them from day 1. Then you have Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly up front. That is a very good rotation up front- Plumlee, Kelly, Murphy, Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, and Josh Hairston. Does anyone see why Hairston has been so disappointing? He has looked awful in very limited minutes, but he was once a top recruit. He seems to be out of shape and not very serious about basketball, despite his obvious talent.

In the backcourt, Sulaimon will get some minutes, but may come off the bench to begin the season. I expect Thornton to start alongside Seth Curry. That is a good backcourt, but no one can really create their own shot. Hopefully, Quinn Cook has also improved and can split time with TT.

Overall, I think Duke is good, but not great. They have a deep frontcourt rotation, but are not great defensively up front. Mason is athletic, but he is not a great man to man defender. Kelly tries but is not quick laterally. Murphy is a big question mark. Then, with Dawkins sitting out, the backcourt looks pretty thin. This should be Quinn Cook's year to really establish himself. Thornton will need to provide some offensive punch. In general, I just don't see them going that far because I don't see anyone on this squad that can create their own shot. However, the depth up front will likely solidify a top 2-3 spot in the ACC for them imo.

[No-Man]

SF is pretty weak, even if Sulaimon delivers, he's more of a SG, I like Kelly and Plumlee, and they should compete at least for FF, but, who's going to lead from the perimeter? Curry? Cook? sadly they lost both Gbinije and Dawkins the same summer.

[jman3134]

Duke is going to struggle against teams with really good perimeter defense and dominant shot blockers. They also are going to have to shoot lights out. Rivers was widely accepted last year as the only guy who could create his own shot on Duke's squad. With him gone, they are going to rely even more heavily on the perimeter shooting. Seth Curry is going to take most of the heat. Dawkins won't be there to spread the floor.

If teams clamp down on Duke's perimeter players, they won't be able to create their own offense at all, nor will they be able to feed the post. This represents a huge problem, as their strength is on the interior with Kelly and Mason Plumlee. Further, if they face a dominant shot blocker, they will have to rely more heavily on their perimeter shooting, which (I already mentioned) they have less of this year. Teams at the college level can easily clog the paint because of the lack of a defensive 3 second rule. Kelly might struggle inside against much better athletes, at least with regard to his post game. Plumlee can be passive at times.

My conclusion: Duke is going to rely heavily on Seth Curry and his production is absolutely going to be the most essential piece of the puzzle. Hopefully, some of Duke's guards and back up interior players improved over the summer to provide the Blue Devils with more depth. They are going to struggle against strong defensive squads because they may be more one dimensional than in previous years. They are likely a top 25 team, but no where near as good as they have been in recent years. (first round exits included)

[chips93]

If teams clamp down on Duke's perimeter players, they won't be able to create their own offense at all, nor will they be able to feed the post. This represents a huge problem, as their strength is on the interior with Kelly and Mason Plumlee. Further, if they face a dominant shot blocker, they will have to rely more heavily on their perimeter shooting, which (I already mentioned) they have less of this year. Teams at the college level can easily clog the paint because of the lack of a defensive 3 second rule. Kelly might struggle inside against much better athletes, at least with regard to his post game. Plumlee can be passive at times.

what do you mean by bolded? how would a team clamp down on shooters, and also prevent them feeding the post. you cant really do both.

duke have good shooters, so perimeter defenders wont be able to sag back into the post to deny entry passes. clamping down on shooters makes feeding the post even easier.

[jman3134]

what do you mean by bolded? how would a team clamp down on shooters, and also prevent them feeding the post. you cant really do both.

duke have good shooters, so perimeter defenders wont be able to sag back into the post to deny entry passes. clamping down on shooters makes feeding the post even easier.

I will clarify here. You make a notable point. An active defensive team with a good shot blocking presence can step in the passing lane and over play on the post feeds. If Duke is active dribbling around in circles without someone to create his own shot or create for teammates, it makes it that much more difficult to pass the ball inside. This is because he is limited in what he can do with the ball. He can't shoot if he is played close, so he is going to have to pass. Essentially, the post entry pass is more easily anticipated. When an opposing defender is playing a Duke perimeter man close, the pass can be tipped as well.

My point is that if defenders are allowed to overplay Duke's shot creators, they become more predictable and will struggle to assert themselves against a team with quick perimeter defenders and a lengthy post presence. (ala a Louisville or someone like that)

At the collegiate level, most teams can shoot the ball well enough that the perimeter defender would not double down on the post man unless it's a horrific shooting night. That would only happen if Duke's perimeter shooters were terrible at their craft. (or the opposing defense was in a zone trap) I'm not saying they are. But, they are worse than last year.

[harithak47]

Duke is a championship contender. Yes their perimeter defense seems to still be an issue but Sulaimon looks like a very good defender, and Jefferson can defend better than anybody they had at the 3 last year. Ths issue with Duke last year was that Dawkins and Curry couldn't guard anyone and they had to play Thornton to get stops who isn't an offensive threat.

The reason Duke can win a title is because of their bigs Plumlee and Kelly are gonna give teams fits. The key will be if Cook can lock down the point, and if Curry's defense has improved, he looks a lot bigger this year. But a healthy Cook will make the offense even more potent IMO.

[NYCBLUEDEVIL1]

Huge tournament win for Duke last night in the 'Battle4Atlantis' in Nassau, Bahamas. Round 1: Duke 89, Minnesota 71; Round 2: Duke 67, VCU 58; Round 3 Championship: Duke 76, Louisville 71. Duke handled the pressure very well in this tournament, especially in the games against VCU and Louisville. Also, their composure was rock solid in both games. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry had big games, with Curry hitting two critical shots in the Louisville match-up. Sophomore G, Quinn Cook, earned MVP honors for the tournament. Always hard to predict how Duke will handle their 2012-2013 schedule, but I see them going deep into the NCAA Tournament.

[jman3134]

FWIW, they managed to defeat the exact team that I said would give them fits. Cook really stepped up big time. With that said, I think Louisville is going to be a different team by the end of the year if Gorgui Dieng can stay healthy. Dieng not playing at full strength really hurt them. Still, it's a great win for Duke.

I still stand by my initial assessment. If Duke is not hitting shots, it makes it tougher for them to feed the post. However, Quinn Cook has improved immensely and Mason Plumlee is one of the best bigs in the nation. Throw Ryan Kelly into the mix along with steady three point shooting from Seth Curry and you have an outstanding team. I have said in the past week that I do believe that Duke is one of the three top teams that I saw. (this was prior to their Louisville win) The other two were Michigan and Indiana. This could change by year's end, but they have been very impressive early.

[NYCBLUEDEVIL1]

After an awful first half against Ohio State at Cameron...and after a severe tongue lashing by Coach K at halftime...the Blue Devils put it all back together in the second half to win it, 73-68. (OSU was up, 31-23, at the half.) This was Duke's fourth game in seven days and they looked fatigued after beating Minnesota, VCU, and Louisville on November 22, 23, and 24, respectively. It was definitely a gutsy second-half performance, with Mason Plumlee leading the charge. Next up: Delaware, on December 1st, at Cameron.

[jman3134]

Mason Plumlee is playing like an All-American. He is having an eye opening year and is extremely efficient. Love his motor right now. I only wonder why he didn't display this intensity sooner.