NCAA Bracket Predictions

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bill curley II
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NCAA Bracket Predictions 

Post#1 » by bill curley II » Sun Mar 9, 2008 11:54 pm

Predict your top 4 seeds, or more, in each bracket.

Houston Bracket:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Stanford
4. UConn

Phoenix Bracket:
1. Memphis
2. UCLA
3. Georgetown
4. Drake

Charlotte Bracket:
1. North Carolina
2. Texas
3. Xavier
4. Purdue

Detroit Bracket:
1. Kansas
2. Wisconsin
3. Louisville
4. Vandy

Couple points:
1. UCLA should get a 1 seed in theory, but location wise, they're better off as a 2 seed, playing in Anaheim on the opening weekend rather then in Little Rock.
2. I put Drake at 4, which might be higher then most people's projections of them, but they did win their conference tournament, beat Butler in their head to head, and last year Southern Ill was a 4 seed. Plus, Indiana and Mich St laid a couple of rotten eggs today and hurt the Big 10 overall.
3. THe fourth number one seed (in Detroit), can go to either Kansas or Duke. If Duke wins the ACC, I think they get a number 1 seed, along with UNC.
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Re: NCAA Bracket Predictions 

Post#2 » by JN » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:27 pm

bill curley II wrote:Predict your top 4 seeds, or more, in each bracket.

Houston Bracket:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Stanford
4. UConn

Phoenix Bracket:
1. Memphis
2. UCLA
3. Georgetown
4. Drake

Charlotte Bracket:
1. North Carolina
2. Texas
3. Xavier
4. Purdue

Detroit Bracket:
1. Kansas
2. Wisconsin
3. Louisville
4. Vandy

Couple points:
1. UCLA should get a 1 seed in theory, but location wise, they're better off as a 2 seed, playing in Anaheim on the opening weekend rather then in Little Rock.
2. I put Drake at 4, which might be higher then most people's projections of them, but they did win their conference tournament, beat Butler in their head to head, and last year Southern Ill was a 4 seed. Plus, Indiana and Mich St laid a couple of rotten eggs today and hurt the Big 10 overall.
3. THe fourth number one seed (in Detroit), can go to either Kansas or Duke. If Duke wins the ACC, I think they get a number 1 seed, along with UNC.


I don't understand point #1 at all. They will play in Anaheim in the first weekend no matter what region they are assigned to.

Maybe I am missing something? or perhaps your unaware how the pod system works?

The rest of your seeds seem reasonable with a few exceptions:
UCLA and UNC are locks as #1 seeds no matter what happens,

Not sure about Wisconsin over Georgetown. I would have to favour Georgetown as the #2 seed.

As for Drake as a #4, that is possible. I have them as a five, but can defintely see 4 as reasonable.. most have them as 5 or 6. Just remember that Southern Illinois had a better resume last year (8 top 50 wins)
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Re: NCAA Bracket Predictions 

Post#3 » by bill curley II » Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:39 pm

JN wrote:I don't understand point #1 at all. They will play in Anaheim in the first weekend no matter what region they are assigned to.

Maybe I am missing something? or perhaps your unaware how the pod system works?

The rest of your seeds seem reasonable with a few exceptions:
UCLA and UNC are locks as #1 seeds no matter what happens,

Not sure about Wisconsin over Georgetown. I would have to favour Georgetown as the #2 seed.


Ah ok. If that is the case witht he Pod system, then yes, I'd put UCLA at 1 over Kansas.

As for Wisconsin over G'Town. I know G'Town has the higher RPI and plays in a tougher conference, but from an observational standpoint, I haven't been impressed by their play at all the whole year. They've lucked out on a couple victories, most notiably against Marquette and Nova, and their best non-conf win was on the road against Alabama (16-15).

Wisconsin on the other hand at least had that victory at Texas, and has just as many in-conference wins over the top 20 RPI as G'Town (3).
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Post#4 » by JN » Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:03 pm

Here's my seeds right now,

1 UNC UCLA Memphis Tennessee
2 Georgetown Texas Kansas Duke
3 Louisville Stanford Wisconsin Xavier
4 Notre Dame Vanderbilt Uconn Indiana
5 Michigan St Butler Washington St Drake
6 USC Clemson Marquette Purdue
7 Gonzaga Miss St BYU Pitt
8 Miami (FL) St. UNLV Kent St Oklahoma


9 St. Mary's West Virginia Arkansas Illinois St
10 Kansas St Kentucky South Alabama Baylor
11 Texas A&M Arizona Umass Villanova
12 VCU Arizona St Davidson Western Kentucky
13 San Diego, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Oral Roberts
14 Portland St Siena, Utah St, Cornell
15 American Austin Peay Belmont Winthrop
16 Alabama St /Morgan St, Stephen F Austin, Sacred Heart, UMBC


Last 4 In: Texas A&M, Arizona St, Villanova, VCU
Last 4 Out: Oregon, Syracuse, Ohio St, New Mexico
Bext 4 Out: UAB, St. Joes, Dayton, Virginia Tech
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Re: NCAA Bracket Predictions 

Post#5 » by JN » Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:05 pm

bill curley II wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Ah ok. If that is the case witht he Pod system, then yes, I'd put UCLA at 1 over Kansas.

As for Wisconsin over G'Town. I know G'Town has the higher RPI and plays in a tougher conference, but from an observational standpoint, I haven't been impressed by their play at all the whole year. They've lucked out on a couple victories, most notiably against Marquette and Nova, and their best non-conf win was on the road against Alabama (16-15).

Wisconsin on the other hand at least had that victory at Texas, and has just as many in-conference wins over the top 20 RPI as G'Town (3).


I have Georgetown ranked 8 and Wisconsin 9.. so there very close. Good argument I can see the commitee really valuing the win at Texas as a "tie'breaker",

They just do the "s-curve" with seeds, so other then the #1 seeds the region one ends up is fairly random. But in the first two rounds they try to align the top 4 seeds with the tournament site that is closese to them
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Post#6 » by philbe311 » Tue Mar 11, 2008 5:39 pm

As of today...

1.1 - Tennessee
1.2 - North Carolina
1.3 - Memphis
1.4 - UCLA

2.1 - Texas
2.2 - Duke
2.3 - Georgetown
2.4 - Kansas

3.1 - Xavier
3.2 - Wisconsin
3.3 - Vanderbilt
3.4 - Conneticut

4.1 - Louisville
4.2 - Drake
4.3 - Notre Dame
4.4 - Stanford

Thoughts...

While I like Kansas as a team, they haven't beat a top 25 squad all year...

I think the Big East Tournament will play a big role in seeding (Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Uconn)

I couldn't include Michigan St or Indiana given their stretch runs... 5-5 and 7-3 respectively...

Butler's SOS # kept me from considering them...

As a result Stanford and Notre Dame backed into the final two spots...
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Post#7 » by Isocleas2 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:41 pm

philbe311 wrote:As of today...

1.1 - Tennessee
1.2 - North Carolina
1.3 - Memphis
1.4 - UCLA

2.1 - Texas
2.2 - Duke
2.3 - Georgetown
2.4 - Kansas

3.1 - Xavier
3.2 - Wisconsin
3.3 - Vanderbilt
3.4 - Conneticut

4.1 - Louisville
4.2 - Drake
4.3 - Notre Dame
4.4 - Stanford

Thoughts...

While I like Kansas as a team, they haven't beat a top 25 squad all year...

I think the Big East Tournament will play a big role in seeding (Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Uconn)

I couldn't include Michigan St or Indiana given their stretch runs... 5-5 and 7-3 respectively...

Butler's SOS # kept me from considering them...

As a result Stanford and Notre Dame backed into the final two spots...


1.1 - North Carolina
1.2 - UCLA
1.3 - Tennessee
1.4 - Memphis

2.1 - Kansas
2.2 - Duke
2.3 - Texas
2.4 - Georgetown

3.1 - Wisconsin
3.2 - Stanford
3.3 - Louisville
3.4 - Xavier

4 seeds I don't care about.
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Post#8 » by Biggame » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:21 pm

Hey, are you interested in joining another sports forum? If so, check out The Sports Board, the #1 place for sports discussion.

http://thesportsboard.us
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Post#9 » by Wade2k6 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:34 pm

Dionte Christmas might shake some of these brackets up. He is playing incredible right now
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Post#10 » by Wade2k6 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 12:18 am

Another big shakeup, Arkansas takes down Tennessee 92-91
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Post#11 » by Cammo101 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 2:48 am

1. UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina, Texas/Kansas (winner)
2. Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown, Texas/Kansas (loser)
3. Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville, Xavier
4. Vanderbilt, UConn, Butler, Drake
5. Purdue, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Washington State
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Post#12 » by Polynice4Pippen » Sun Mar 16, 2008 3:18 am

Cammo101 wrote:1. UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina, Texas/Kansas (winner)
2. Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown, Texas/Kansas (loser)
3. Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville, Xavier
4. Vanderbilt, UConn, Butler, Drake
5. Purdue, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Washington State


Gotta throw Pittsburgh up there with the #5 seeds now. Very impressive run to the Big East tourny title.
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Post#13 » by JN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 3:57 am

Pitt will get a 4 seed/
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Post#14 » by Cammo101 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:49 am

1. UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina, Texas/Kansas (winner)
2. Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown, Texas/Kansas (loser)
3. Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville, Xavier
4. Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Butler, Drake
5. Purdue, Notre Dame, Michigan State, UConn
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Post#15 » by JN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 3:16 pm

A few things I am still considering:
- I have Wisconsin as #7... shoudl Georgetown and Duke overtake them and Wisconsin move to a 3.

- Am I too hard on Indiana and Purdue... the BIg Ten is not great. Purdue was brutal OOC.

- USC.. I just have a feeling the committee will liek their road wins and give them a 5.

- The top 3 seeds are set in stone, except as I discussed above

- Is Butler too low as a six seed. I'm sticking to what I said back when Drake faced Butler... the game was worth two seeds... they are both "fives"... winner gets the four loser gets the six. Butler has wins against "good teams" that just missed the tournament... Ohio St, Viriginia Tech, Souterhn Ilinois, Florida St, Texas Tech..... how do you value those? I'm still thinking five... but once again the only tounry team they played they lost to at home..

Compare them to Vanderbilt... Vandy went 11-7 in the SEC. I think Butler could have pulled that out... they went undefesated OOC, but Vandy did not get the wins.. Vandy at six seems low however?
Maybe just take USC out of the five.

As for everything between 8-12 seed it's a mess, and usually there are head scratchers in this area, so I'm not thinking much about that.




EAST WEST SOUTH MIDWEST

Raleigh Anaheim Little Rock Omaha
1 UNC UCLA Memphis Kansas
Raleigh Omaha Little Rock Birmingham
2 Georgetown Wisconsin Texas Tennessee
Anaheim Washington Washington Birmingham
3 Stanford Duke Xavier Louisville
Denver Tampa Tampa Denver
4 Drake Notre Dame Pitt Washington St
5 Uconn Michigan St USC Vanderbilt
6 Indiana Arkansas Butler Clemson
7 Gonzaga Oklahoma Purdue Marquette
8 UNLV Miss St Kent St West Virginia
9 Texas A&M BYU Miami FL St. Mary's
10 Kansas St Temple Kentucky South Alabama
11 St. Joseph's Villanova Davidson Baylor
12 Arizona VCU Illinois St George Mason
13 San Diego Western Kentucky Boise St Oral Roberts
14 Cal Fullerton Portland St Cornell Siena
15 Winthrop American Belmont Austin Peay
16 Miss Valley St / Coppin St Texas Arlington UMBC Mount St. Mary's
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Post#16 » by Cammo101 » Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:49 pm

I like Indiana as a #6 JN, but I don't see Purdue lower than a #6 as well. Clemson and USC will both be behind Purdue IMO.
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Post#17 » by panacea » Sun Mar 16, 2008 8:09 pm

JN, could you share your rationalizations for Nova and Zona as 11 and 12 seeds, respectively? Just curious, as many see them on the outside looking in.
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Final Bracket Prediction 

Post#18 » by JN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:04 pm

EAST

Raleigh

1 UNC
16 Mount St. Mary's / Coppin St

8 UNLV
9 Texas A&M

Denver

4 Pitt
13 Georgia

5 Indiana
12 Western Kentucky

Little Rock

2 Texas
15 Winthrop

7 Gonzaga
10 Kentucky

Washington

3 Xavier
14 Siena

6 Michigan St
11 Arizona

WEST

Anaheim

1 UCLA
16 Texas Arlington

8 Miss St
9 BYU

Tampa

4 Notre Dame
13 San Diego

5 Butler
12 VCU

Birmingham

2 Tennessee
15 Austin Peay

7 Marquette
10 Kansas St

Omaha

3 Wisconsin
14 Portland St

6 USC
11 St. Joseph's


SOUTH

Little Rock

1 Memphis
16 Miss Valley St

8 Kent St
9 Miami FL

Tampa

4 Washington St
13 Oral Roberts

5 Uconn
12 Illinois St

Washington

2 Duke
15 UMBC

7 Oklahoma
10 South Alabama

Birmingham

3 Louisville
14 Cornell

6 Arkansas
11 Davidson


MIDWEST

Omaha

1 Kansas
16 Belmont

8 West Virginia
9 St. Mary's

Denver

4 Drake
13 Boise St

5 Vanderbilt
12 George Mason

Raleigh

2 Georgetown
15 American

7 Purdue
10 Temple

Anaheim

3 Stanford
14 Cal St. Fullerton

6 Clemson
11 Baylor



COntingency
Switch Kansas with Texas, if Texas wins
If Georgia loses, remove from tourney, move Western Kentucky to 13, Arionza to 12, and insert Villanova into the tourney as an 11 seed.
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Post#19 » by JN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:15 pm

panacea wrote:JN, could you share your rationalizations for Nova and Zona as 11 and 12 seeds, respectively? Just curious, as many see them on the outside looking in.


Choosing the best of a bad lot, I guess.

Villanova was my last team in.... but they were moved up to an 11 seed, so that no Big East could potentially meet up until the Sweet 16 (a bracket rule, unless a conference gets 9 teams or more),

As you will see they are currently out and have been replaced by Georgia.

I decided that this was the year with so many .500 conference teams in conference that the committee would be more generous to mid-majors who had great regular seasons... so Illinois St, VCU, and South Alabama got in.

That leaves Arizona over teams like Villanova, Ohio St, Dayton, Ole Miss, Oregon, Arizona St, Virginia Tech.

Arizona just had 10 top 100 wins, and 5 top 50 wins..... add that to the RPI and its just enough. I don't think they deserve it, but I think they will be selected.

I also strongly considered Dayton and Ole Miss, just because they had sucj a good top 100 profile... but the confrence record of 9-9 and 7-10 in those conferences just couldn't do it.... but I would not be surpirsed if the commitee chooses either as the "surprise pick"

Arizona St had a nice profile... but the committee is going to nab them for there crappy schedule.... a little unfair. because beating 100-200 level teams at home is easy... but you kill yourself when you schedule so many sub 270 teams. They were also unlucky because how could they think that Illinois and LSU and Coppin St and Princeton would all be so bad. I think they deserve or Arizona but will not get it.

Oregon just had nothing over Arizona or Arizona St.

Ohio St - the Big Ten is bad.... they needed more top 50 victories given there chances... even just one more!!! 10-8 in the Big Ten is meaningless when half the teams you would face are really, really bad.

Virginia Tech - there signature win is over Miami (FL), and a bad OOC, alot of bad losses.... 10-8 in the ACC was just not good enough.

Villanova - too many bad losses compared to Arizona.
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Post#20 » by JN » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:19 pm

Cammo101 wrote:I like Indiana as a #6 JN, but I don't see Purdue lower than a #6 as well. Clemson and USC will both be behind Purdue IMO.


I can see Purdue as high as a 4. It's hard to ignore a 15-3 record in a BCS conference... but at the end of the day there OOC was just so bad, and the BIg Ten had so many easy victories that 15-3 does not mean that much.

I ended up keeping them a 7.

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