First Bracket Projection (as of Dec 25, 2008)

[JN]

It's early. At this time of the year, the issue is always "prediction" vs "projection" based on what a team has done to date... and there is sometimes little data differences to decipher from that perspective.

So I'm not going to bother doing that. Simple mathematical formula I will use:

2/3: Power Rankings, which are a good indicator of how you have played and are starting to get good predictive value (Use Ken Pom + Sagargin)

1/3 : RPI, obviously its somewhat importnat to the committee, and as of right now its a decent tool, sicne most OOC is over.

Basically, this is what it is.. a guide. there are flaws, but it is a pretty good relection of where a team sits AS OF TODAY, and by weighing a bit more on power rankings adds predictive value and takes out the overweighing of a few specific games early on, and the RPI which is still wacky (well it always is, but moreso now!!)

I will probably start full out projection like last year not based on formula, by mid-way through conference season, when there is more concrete data. Up until that point a mathematical formula is probably adequate (in other words not worth my time spliiting hairs yet)

1 Pitt
2 Duke
3 UNC
4 Clemson
5 Uconn
6 Oklahoma
7 Gonzaga
8 Illinois
9 Ohio St
10 Georgetown
11 Butler
12 Xavier
13 Wake Forest
14 Texas
15 West Virginia
16 Maryland
17 Arizona St
18 Tennessee
19 Northwestern
20 UCLA
21 Memphis
22 Missouri
23 California
24 Brigham Young
25 Syracuse
26 Davidson
27 Purdue
28 Michigan
29 Villanova
30 Miami FL
31 St. Mary's
32 Michigan St
33 Louisville
34 Stanford
35 Notre Dame
36 UAB
37 Minnesota
38 Utah St
39 Dayton
40 Baylor
41 Florida
42 Kentucky
43 Boston College
44 Miami Ohio
45 Oklahoma St
46 Washington
47 Arizona
48 Utah

Last 8 Out
Florida St
Marquette
Wisconsin
Cincinnati
Evansville
Cleveland St
Rhode Island
Texas A&M



And a bracket for the hell of it

Region INDY BOSTON MEMPHIS ARIZONA
First Round Philidelphia Greensboro Greensboro Miami
1 Pitt ** Duke ** UNC ** Clemson
16 Alabama St / Morgan St ** Navy ** Mount St. Mary's ** Pacific

8 Michigan St ** St. Mary's ** Villanova ** Michigan
9 UAB ** Minnesota ** Stanford ** Louisville

Boise Boise Kansas City Portland
4 Wake Forest ** West Virginia ** Texas ** Arizona St
13 Creighton ** Siena ** VCU ** Belmont

5 Tennessee ** UCLA ** Northwestern ** Memphis
12 Arizona ** Utah ** Miami Ohio ** Oklahoma St

Dayton Portland Kansas City Philidelphia
2 Illinois ** Gonzaga ** Oklahoma ** Uconn
15 Stephen F Austin ** Vermont ** Cornell ** Liberty

7 Davidson ** Syracuse ** Miami (FL) ** Purdue
10 Baylor ** Dayton ** Notre Dame ** Utah St

Miami Dayton Minneapolis Kansas City
3 Georgetown ** Ohio St ** Butler ** Xavier
14 Eastern kentucky ** Middle Tennessee ** North Dakota St ** Portland St

6 Cal ** Missouri ** BYU ** Maryland
11 Florida ** Boston College ** Kentucky ** Washington



.

[JN]

A few comments:

- 2 Teams are playing very well and its not being reflected in the rankings - Clemson and Illinois. It will be interesting to see how good they really are once the season starts.

- The BIg East is Overhyped but still maybe the best conference. Louisville and Notre Dame certainly have not been as good as expected, and Marquette has been inconsistent. Pitt, UConn, GTwon and Syracuse have all been very solid.

- The Big Ten has been alot stronger then expected in the OOC (in fact they might have been the best conference OOC)... Illinois, Ohio St, Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota (Seven teams is more then expected)

- Kansas and Washington St are legit tourney teams, but they have brutal RPI's so far.

[Polynice4Pippen]

Strange that West Virginia can be ranked 10 spots higher than Syracuse based purely on the math of the RPI and strength of schedule. I type this before the West Virginia/Ohio State game. But Syracuse has a better record and far more quality wins, namely at Memphis, as well as beating Kansas and Florida on neutral sites. Too many Syracuse home games I suppose. West Virginia has also proven a better team in Big East play the last couple seasons. A very interesting barometer nonetheless.

[JN]

Strange that West Virginia can be ranked 10 spots higher than Syracuse based purely on the math of the RPI and strength of schedule. I type this before the West Virginia/Ohio State game. But Syracuse has a better record and far more quality wins, namely at Memphis, as well as beating Kansas and Florida on neutral sites. Too many Syracuse home games I suppose. West Virginia has also proven a better team in Big East play the last couple seasons. A very interesting barometer nonetheless.

I would have ranked Syracuse higher no doubt - probably a 3/4 seed.. And WVU closer to a 10 seed.... but really that would have been based on weighing two games over everything else. That's why I tried to use some performance / predictive hybrid... doing brackets at this point always focus way too much on one or two games, and a metric that looks at all games is better.

Its actually not the SOS or the RPI that drives up West Virginia. The power rankings consider margin of victory and the opponent quality.
West Virginia has won there games against bad teams (250+) by 45,45,34,32. It also beat a pretty good team in Miami (Ohio) by 36 points. Even against awful teams that is impressive...

[GYBE]

Notre Dame has lost to North Carolina (who everyone loses to) and to another top 25 team. Neither were at home. They have a win over Texas on a neutral court, I don't know why you think they've dissapointed. I mean, they're #7 in the AP poll, that's two spots higher than they were in the preseason!

The RPI brings ND down because they're bad schedulers. Even though they've played some good teams, their "bad" teams are REALLY bad. The admin needs to find a better middle ground for weaker teams, it's why they've narrowly missed some tournaments in the past. But they're about to start the Big East schedule, so their SOS will start to really go up. In any case, obviously I disagree with them as a 10 seed.

[JN]

Notre Dame has lost to North Carolina (who everyone loses to) and to another top 25 team. Neither were at home. They have a win over Texas on a neutral court, I don't know why you think they've dissapointed. I mean, they're #7 in the AP poll, that's two spots higher than they were in the preseason!

The RPI brings ND down because they're bad schedulers. Even though they've played some good teams, their "bad" teams are REALLY bad. The admin needs to find a better middle ground for weaker teams, it's why they've narrowly missed some tournaments in the past. But they're about to start the Big East schedule, so their SOS will start to really go up. In any case, obviously I disagree with them as a 10 seed.

Power rankings make up the majority of the score in my formula (2/3), as they have much more predictive value then RPI and also do a better job of showing how a team has done. RPI stayed in because obviously committee looks at it. Power Rankings don't care who you have played but how well you have done against who you played against the norm. Notre Dame is in the 20's in SAG, and 30's in KenPom... while the RPI does drag them down a few more seeds, there power rankings do not indicate a high seed either.

As I said this was just a tool to show who is a) on the right track, and b) who has played best to date in a rating that is more predictive and c) overeluating / comparing / overrelying on a few games. It might also point out a few good teams that are under the radar. (teams that have surpised since Dec 25 as well, it must be noted)

At the same time, it did beat up a few teams that were better then there seed. One of them is certainly Notre Dame, who I certainly perceive as better then a 10 seed. I would put them in the 3-4 seed area. I think the AP poll is overrating them a bit.

[JN]

The other thing of note is that there were three large positive inconsistencies with the AP Poll:

Clemson - #3
Illinois - #8
West Virginia #15

In the last five days, Illinois and West Virginia who were not ranked in the AP Poll, have pulled off huge road wins.... against Purdue, and a crushing 28 point win over Ohio St, respectively.


Teams that are high in power rankings, but not getting near that same respect in AP Polls, are generally underrated.... so that's why I used that instead of the AP.

Anyway, for next week, I will give it a few more tweaks... might add the AP poll as a factor, but I think you can see why I want to keep power rankings for now.

I am a "Bracketologist", and through my work at other boards, I do get posted at Bracket Compilation boards. It's just does not make sense to really delve deeply into that quite yet however. You must remember that predicting seeding requires no opinion as to who is a "better" team, it simply looks at results, past trends... it looks at what has happened, nothing else. Well not enough has happened, to make a real projection at this point.

[JN]

Notre Dame has lost to North Carolina (who everyone loses to) and to another top 25 team. Neither were at home. They have a win over Texas on a neutral court, I don't know why you think they've dissapointed. I mean, they're #7 in the AP poll, that's two spots higher than they were in the preseason!

The RPI brings ND down because they're bad schedulers. Even though they've played some good teams, their "bad" teams are REALLY bad. The admin needs to find a better middle ground for weaker teams, it's why they've narrowly missed some tournaments in the past. But they're about to start the Big East schedule, so their SOS will start to really go up. In any case, obviously I disagree with them as a 10 seed.

In retrospect so do I. Should have had them in my last teams out column.

[Cammo101]

Florida State should be in over a handful of those teams. Wins over Cal and Florida, along with tough losses to UNC, Pitt, and Duke. FSU is clearly an at large team right now. No telling if they will be at the end of the year.

[JN]

Cammo, That was done Dec 25... haven't done one since then. As of now Florida St is in.

[Cammo101]

Cammo, That was done Dec 25... haven't done one since then. As of now Florida St is in.

Ahh. Didn't notice that.