Bracket Projection (as of March 1, 2009)

[JN]

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Before I start, here is the bracket project matrix, which I typically ignore while I compose my lists, but is something that you guys might find useful, as it includes major sites, and other geeks who think they know what they are doing.

Last year I was one of the 53 contributors (through another board), and finished 15 th by their scoring method for my final projection. The odd thing is that the most reknown "bracketologist" Lunardi, typically does poorly...

Unfortunately, I have had little time this year, so I did not get into the deadline, which I just happened to see was yesterday.

Comments:
#1 SEED - I actually think there is a great chance that Michigan St gets the fourth #1 especially if they win the Big Ten tournament. 11 top 50 wins. I give absolutely 0% chance to Memphis getting a #1 seed. Never has a team with such a mediocore top 50 win profile (4-3 or 5-3 if they win out, with no win against a top 5 seed) ever come close to a #1 seed, and it will not happen this year. Guaranteed. They maybe playing like one of the four best teams in America, but the committee hands out #1 seeds to teams with an exceedingly outstanding quality win profile.


LAST TEAMS IN/ OUT :I actually came down to 12 teams for the last 8 spots. So here are the teams I debated:

Next to Last 4 IN: UNLV, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Maryland
Last 4 IN: Georgetown, Florida, Cincinnati, Miami (FL)
Last 4 OUT : Oklahoma St, South Carolina, Michigan, Providence
Next 4 OUT : Kentucky, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame

So why certain teams over the others?
Georgetown over Michigan - Georgetown's quality wins at the end of the day were more quality then Michigan. Michigan beat Duke at home (and it was there second crack at them), and UCLA is just a 6 or 7 seed right now.

South Carolina accomplished nothing OOC, and 10-6 does not carry much weight in the SEC. Only one top 50 win.

I really tried to look for some teams out of the BCS conferences, but there is just a lack of them this year.

Multiple Bid Conferences:
Big East (9)
ACC (8)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (5)
PAC 10 (5)
SEC (3)
Mountain West (3)
A-10 (2)
West Coast (2)


BUBBLE BURSTERS
You want these teams to win there conferences because otherwise they will bring along some uninvited quests:

Will Get In
Butler
Creighton
Gonzaga / St. Mary's ???

Likely Get In
Utah St

Possible At Larges
Siena
Davidson

Crazy Tournaments:
A-10 - Always is. Fairly common place for the tournament winner out of this conference to be out of it before the start of the A-10 tournament..

SEC - I only have LSU / Florida / Tennesse in. I certainly see someone elese, winning this tournament.

Mountain West - San Diego, New Mexico and even Wyoming might cause havoc in this one.

So here are the rankings

1 Uconn (1)
2 UNC (1)
3 Pitt (1)
4 Oklahoma (1)
5 Michigan St (2)
6 Louisville (2)
7 Kansas (2)
8 Memphis (2)
9 Duke (3)
10 Washington (3)
11 Xavier (3)
12 Wake Forest (3)
13 Illinois (4)
14 Villanova (4)
15 Missouri (4)
16 Florida St (4)
17 Clemson (5)
18 Purdue (5)
19 LSU (5)
20 BYU (5)
21 Marquette (6)
22 Arizona St (6)
23 Butler (6)
24 Syracuse (6)
25 UCLA (7)
26 Gonzaga (7)
27 Utah (7)
28 Texas (7)
29 Tennessee (8)
30 West Virginia (8)
31 Minnesota (8)
32 Boston College (8)
33 Dayton (9)
34 Arizona (9)
35 Creighton (9)
36 Ohio St (9)
37 Utah St (10)
38 Wisconsin (10)
39 Cal (10)
40 UNLV (10)
41 Texas A&M (11)
42 St. Mary's (11)
43 Maryland (11)
44 Siena (11)
45 Georgetown (12)
46 Davidson (12)
47 Florida (12)
48 Cincinnati (12)
49 Miami (FL) (13)
50 VCU (13)
51 Western Kentucky (13)
52 Stephen F Austin (13)
53 American (14)
54 Akron (14)
55 Vermont (14)
56 North Dakota (14)
57 Weber St (15)
58 Mirray St (15)
59 Pacific (15)
60 Cornell (15)
61 Robert Morris (16)
62 Morgan St (16)
63 Jacksonville (16)
64 Radford (16)
65 Alabama St (16)


Here is what my bracket would look like

Region : EAST (BOSTON)

Round 1/2 : Philidelphia

1 Uconn
16 Robert Morris

8 Minnesota
9 Dayton

Round 1/2 : Boise

4 Missouri
13 Western Kentucky

5 Clemson
12 Cincinnati

Round 1/2 : Miami

2 Memphis
15 Pacific

7 UCLA
10 UNLV

Round 1/2 : Philidelphia

3 Duke
14 Akron

6 Syracuse
11 Texas A&M


Region : SOUTH (MEMPHIS)

Round 1/2 :Greenboro

1 UNC
16 Morgan St

8 West Virginia
9 Arizona

Round 1/2 : Minneapolis

4 Illinois
13 Stephen F Austin

5 BYU
12 Florida

Round 1/2 :Greenboro

2 Louisville
15 Cornell

7 Texas
10 Utah St

Round 1/2 : Portland

3 Washington
14 Vermont

6 Butler
11 Maryland

Region : INDIANAPOLIS

Round 1/2 ayton

1 Pitt
16 Alabama St / Radford

8 Tennessee
9 Creighton

Round 1/2 : Portland

4 Florida St
13 VCU

5 Purdue
12 St. Mary's

Round 1/2 : Kansas City

2 Kansas
15 Weber St

7 Boston College
10 Wisconsin

Round 1/2 : Minneapolis

3 Xavier
14 North Dakota St

6 Arizona St
11 Georgetown

Region: ARIZONA

Round 1/2 :Kansas City

1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville

8 Utah
9 Ohio St

Round 1/2 : Boise

4 Villanova
13 Miami (FL)

5 LSU
12 Davidson

Round 1/2 : Dayton

2 Michigan St
15 Murray St

7 Gonzaga
10 Cal

Round 1/2 : Miami

3 Wake Forest
14 American

6 Marquette
11 Siena

[jman3134]

How can you make these bracket projections without the auto bid winners? I guess the accuracy depends predominantly on the ability to predict lower level conference winners.

Nice work all around though.

[JN]

How can you make these bracket projections without the auto bid winners? I guess the accuracy depends predominantly on the ability to predict lower level conference winners.

Nice work all around though.

The "bracketology" standard is to typically take the division leader. I have taken the team that I considered the best in the conference right now.... so there are a few deviations from the conference leader.

Teams from conferences in #50 down (Starting with VCU) are only going to get in as autos anyway.

Its a projection. The one that gets scored is the final one you submit on selection Sunday.

[jman3134]

I understand that. But, then how did you miss the deadline?

[JN]

Now I understand.

The deadline was to be included in the bracket project itself - they pull the bracket from wherever you post, you don't submit it. You can update your bracket as much as you like, but it has to be done at least weekly to stay on the board. .

I sent an e-mail to the guy last night and it has got adopted. Perhaps I will get booted out after some of my large deviations. I had not looked at the matrix at all, so as to not be biased by my picks. As well, I try to predict where they will be on Selection Sunday, rather then as of now.

[Cammo101]

I can not imagine a way that UF gets in over South Carolina right now. Solid projections though.

[bill curley II]

I'm biased, but why is ASU a 6 seed while Cal is a 10 seed and also behind Arizona (9)?

Zona was 9-9 in the Pac 10, RPI of 55. Nice wins vs. Kansas, Washington, and at A&M.

ASU was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 32, but other then what was essentially a home game vs. BYU, they did nothing out of conf. They did sweep UCLA which helps.

Cal was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 33, swept Zona and Washington, and a nice win at Utah (#12 RPI) ooc.

I'm ok with ASU ahead of Cal, but not by 4 seeds, and Zona definitely shouldn't be ranked ahead of Cal either.

[Polynice4Pippen]

I'm biased, but why is ASU a 6 seed while Cal is a 10 seed and also behind Arizona (9)?

Zona was 9-9 in the Pac 10, RPI of 55. Nice wins vs. Kansas, Washington, and at A&M.

ASU was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 32, but other then what was essentially a home game vs. BYU, they did nothing out of conf. They did sweep UCLA which helps.

Cal was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 33, swept Zona and Washington, and a nice win at Utah (#12 RPI) ooc.

I'm ok with ASU ahead of Cal, but not by 4 seeds, and Zona definitely shouldn't be ranked ahead of Cal either.

Arizona actually lost to Texas A&M. But they beat Gonzaga and San Diego State in addition to Kansas. Cal beat UNLV and Utah. So overall Arizona has a more impressive non-con resume but Cal sweeping Zona and finishing higher than them in the league should give them a higher seed in my mind.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

Why is Villanova a lowly 4th seed? Having won 6 straight before that heartbreaker to Georgetown, Villanova is another 20+ win team that's a part of the Big East which has 3 20+ win teams. Villanova should be a 2nd seed. It's unfair to attack it for it's Big East losses.


With Scottie Reynolds and Donte Cunningham providing an inside-outside attack, don't be surprised if Villy wins it all in the Big East Tourney.

I think they can take UConn, though stopping Hasheem might be a tough task. If we can keep it to a fast break pace, I think we got them in a nail biter.

[JN]

I'm biased, but why is ASU a 6 seed while Cal is a 10 seed and also behind Arizona (9)?

Zona was 9-9 in the Pac 10, RPI of 55. Nice wins vs. Kansas, Washington, and at A&M.

ASU was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 32, but other then what was essentially a home game vs. BYU, they did nothing out of conf. They did sweep UCLA which helps.

Cal was 11-7 in the Pac 10, RPI of 33, swept Zona and Washington, and a nice win at Utah (#12 RPI) ooc.

I'm ok with ASU ahead of Cal, but not by 4 seeds, and Zona definitely shouldn't be ranked ahead of Cal either.

Alot of things happen over the course of 9 days. I have Cal as a 7 seed as of Wednesday night.

[panacea]

JN, when will you be posting your final bracket projection?
Most of my comments on this one are irrelevant, given that it was posted over 2 weeks ago.