My conference tournament predictions

[jman3134]

I decided that this year, I would like to make my conference tournament predictions ahead of time- and provide a detailed write up. So far, my work can be viewed on my blog. But, I will post it here as well and quote.


Safe to say, I am going to be putting a lot of work in in the coming days.

March 3rd
Horizon League-

Clear Cut Favorite: Butler
After a tremendous year which was supposed to be one of rebuilding, Butler finds itself again as the favorites against its Horizon league foes. This young team simply retooled from a year ago and looks to be as strong as ever. After defeating Davidson on the road in the Bracket Buster game, it appears that this team will have an at large bid lined up regardless of the result of this tournament. Most predict that this team will come out on top as in years past. If they are to win, their youthful squad is going to have to show poise under pressure. And, Matt Howard is going to have to be a factor on both ends of the floor. This can only occur is Hayward and Mack are hitting from the perimeter, however, because their shooting (or the very threat) opens up the game inside.

My selection: Cleveland St.
The preseason conference favorites are streaking at just the right time, winning 8 out of its last 10 contests to close out the regular season. It is clear that the Vikings have the experience to win at this time of year. However, they clearly have a tough road ahead of them: potentially facing league sleeper UIC in their first matchup, and then matching up with the difficult 2 seed in Wisconsin Green Bay- all before facing Butler, who has defeated them by a combined four points in two contests. If Cleveland St. can get consistent play out of Jackson and Cole, they will stand a chance. As last year proved, Bullock cannot work alone. Will it take another heroic Cedric Jackson heave to establish a tournament bid? Maybe not. But, one thing is for sure- the Vikings have a tough road ahead of them before they can punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

Sleeper Picks: UIC and Green Bay (and to a lesser extent Wright St.)
This league has so many sleeper picks, from a Wright St. team that can upset virtually anyone on any given day, to a very talented UIC squad. Jimmy Collins' team has the potential to make a run in the Horizon League tournament. With arguably the most dynamic inside-outside combination in the league (Mayo and Vandermeer), UIC stands a fighting chance against anyone. Several factors must occur if UIC is to go on a tear. First and foremost, Josh Mayo is going to have to play consistent basketball and not score in spurts. If he is not shooting well, Robo Kreps will have to overcompensate as a significant offensive threat. Next, Vandermeer must continue his consistent play inside- blocking shots and corralling rebounds. Tori Boyd is an X factor who could be a scoring spark inside as well. Finally, Spencer Stewart must play under control if this team wants to make a late season run.
The second team that I feel has a solid shot at surprising everyone is Wisconsin Green Bay. While it would not be much of a shock if this team received an automatic berth to the Big Dance, (they have defeated Butler already and finished second in the conference) they have consistently underachieved over the years. This is what makes them a sleeper pick despite their record. The keys to their success rest in the hands of Ryan Tilemma and Troy Cotton. If they can provide a steady perimeter offense, Green Bay will be competitive. Undersized forward Terry Evans is going to have to lock down some of the tougher offensive threats that the Phoenix face. Finally, after a decrease in production and playing time from a season ago, Mike Schachtner will have to be a solid presence inside for Green Bay to win the tournament. Because Green Bay is on average being outrebounded by its opponents, his ability to control the glass will determine how far the Phoenix go.
Worth mentioning is Wright St. because they play at a very methodical pace and can beat you inside. Vital to their success is star Todd Brown- one of the best rebounding guards in the conference.


Big South-

Clear Cut Favorite: Radford
This year's Radford team has the best conference record and has played the best as of late. This high scoring team has many weapons, but is led by 6'11 center Artsiom Parakhouski- a huge presence inside. His ability to dominate the glass is going to be critical against such teams as contender VMI. Their squad likes to play a transition game and is going to attempt to tire this Radford team with their pace. Therein, Artsiom's ability to control the offensive glass will be critical in determining the tempo this game is played at. (that is, assuming both teams make it to the final) He should receive some help from fellow frontcourt mate Joey Lynch-Flohr, who is a consistent weapon inside. Thus, their ability to feed the post is probably the most important factor in their gameplan. Moreover, second leading scorer Kenny Thomas must make some perimeter shots. Finally, Radford must minimize their turnovers all around and play under control.


My Selection: VMI
VMI is one of the most interesting teams in the country. What started out as an experimental system has now become one of the most difficult strategies to play against. After the graduation of leading scorer Reggie Williams, this team has a much more balanced attack. Travis runs the point and is a capable passer as well as a solid rebounding guard. His brother Chavis can fill it up from the outside. While the other cogs in their offensive system can score effectively, they are missing a significant rebounding big man. This is going to hurt them against the likes of Radford and other such teams. They will probably be able to wear them down through a constant transition offense attack. That means that the defense of Willie Bell will determine how far VMI can go in this tournament. Their style is difficult to face for the first time and should disrupt an NCAA tournament team first round, if they can get that far.

Sleeper Picks: Liberty and Winthrop
If Radford faces some difficulty getting to the title game, it is possible that Liberty might secure a bid. After winning several key games in its nonconference schedule, including a four point win on the road at Virginia and a thrilling three point victory over George Mason, Liberty has the potential to make a run at the Big South title. Seth Curry is a dynamic scorer who can fill it up and put his team on his back. If he catches fire, we could see something similar to his brother's breakout performance in the NCAA tournament. Moreover, fellow guard Anthony Smith is a solid weapon who can rebound the ball as well. However, if they face Radford at any point, I do not believe that they will be able to counter their interior presence.
The second team that should never be counted out of a Big South tournament run is the 8th seed Winthrop. After a shaky start at the beginning of their conference season, Winthrop has stepped up their game at the right time of year, winning their last five conference games. They have a tough battle ahead of them at UNC Asheville, but they should be ready after defeating them a season ago. (with game-changer Kenny George) Winthrop has a very balanced attack with forwards Charles Corbin and Cameron Stanley leading the way. Their stifling team defense should give them a chance against anyone in the conference. Look for guard/forward Mantoris Robinson to have a breakout performance.


Ohio Valley-

Clear Cut Favorite: UT- Martin
While it cannot be said that there is one clear cut favorite in this conference, the team with best player and the best record deserves this honor. Lester Hudson, a legitamite NBA prospect, has led his team in virtually every category this year, dishing out assists and grabbing rebounds. Hudson is a born winner and will try to lead his team to the promise land. Complimentary guard Marquis Weddle is going to have to score and make some plays for his team. If Hudson can defer the distribution duties to Marquis, UT-Martin should have a fighting chance defending their regular season title. Senior forward Olajide Hay is going to be the key focal point in their frontcourt defense.

My Selection: Austin Peay
Never count this team out of any Ohio Valley tournament. Year in and year out, they have made it to the title game and most of the time, they receive a berth to the Big Dance. The Governors are led by the underrated duo of Drake Reed and Wes Channels. Their defensive pressure against Hudson and some of the other top guards in the Ohio Valley is going to determine their fate. If they can force turnovers and convert on offensive sets off of empty possessions by the opposition, they should come out on top. Their inside-outside combination should provide instant offense. Caleb Brown's decision making should be the X factor for this high scoring offense. Not only do they have the personnel to win this tournament, but the Governors are also streaking at the right time, winning five of their last seven.

Sleeper Picks: Tennessee St. and Murray St.
Far and away, the hottest team in the conference right now is Tennessee St. They have won their last six games, including a victory on the road against Austin Peay. They play my other sleeper pick in round one and the outcome of this matchup should have fairly large implications for other contending teams. Diminutive guard Gerald Robinson Jr. is going to play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of their season. His scoring numbers, as of late, have been fairly consistent. The only issue of concern for this team has been their turnovers, which need to be minimized if they stand a chance at an NCAA tournament berth. Parker Smith is going to have to produce from the outside and Jerrell Houston must dominate the boards for this team to win. The strategy for the Tigers will be to outscore their opponents and minimize their errors on offense. If Robinson Jr. can get into a rhythm, and his supporting cast can get open, this team could role to the title game.
Murray St. has had a tremendous season thus far with a fairly balanced offensive attack. The Racers are a solid defensive team that can disrupt the offensive sync of their opponents. Moreover, streaking guard Isacc Miles should provide the brunt of the scoring load. If he and Kevin Thomas can distribute the ball and Miles can find his offense, the Racers should find success on both ends of the floor. Inconsistent freshman Ivan Aska could be the X factor for this team in their hopes of another NCAA tournament appearance. (since their heart breaking loss to UNC four years ago) He and the other two members of the Racers' frontcourt trio- Tony Easley and Jeffrey McClain- should be able to control the glass. The real question is whether or not their offense will show up.

[jman3134]

Some more for today.

March 4th
Atlantic Sun-

Clear Cut Favorite: Jacksonville
After appearing dominant in the early going of the conference season, Jacksonville has seemed to find its rhythm, winning five of their last seven going into the conference tournament. After closing out the season with a road win against Belmont, it seems as though they have hit their stride. While they do stand alone at the top of the conference, they are vulnerable to an upset. The likely candidates are the streaking Lipscomb (who recently defeated them at home), Belmont, and East Tennessee St. On the season Jacksonville is 4-2 against these teams, but has not been as solid of late. Their ability to hit the three point shot relative to their opponent will be key in securing a tournament bid. Ben Smith and Lehmon Colbert are going to have to hit some shots, and the Dolphins must play some tough perimeter defense. If their contests escalate to a three point shoot out, this team may very well lose. Thus, their ability to contain and recognize shooters is critical to their success. On the interior, Marcus Allen and Colbert must score inside for this team to stand a fighting chance.

My Selection: East Tennessee St.
After splitting the series with Jacksonville, the Buccaneers will look to exploit their considerable experience against conference foes. More than likely, Courtney Pigram will play a vital role in initiating the offense- attacking the basket and hitting big shots down the stretch. However, it will be the offensive threat of Kevin Tiggs that really separates this team from the rest of the pack. If he can hit shots from the outside, this team may simply outscore their opponents. And finally, guard/forward Mike Smith rounds out this trio. He is a crafty player that is capable of attacking the basket and playing within himself. If he is utilized properly, the Buccaneers should receive little trouble from their conference foes.


Sleeper Pick: Lipscomb
The key for this team is to continue their hot pace by making three point shots. Interior presence Adnan Hodzic is going to have to produce inside in order to open up the game for Lipscomb's perimeter game. As of late, they have been red hot, winning their past eight contests. Brian Wright will have to continue his steady production and try to stay out of foul trouble. If he can do this, Lipscomb should have the frontcourt to dominate inside and secure a bid for the NCAA tournament.



Patriot League-


Clear Cut Favorite: American
American has been the overwhelming favorite the entire season. They have only one loss on the season, despite winning several close contests including a battle on the road against Navy. The Eagles are led by diminutive guard Garrison Carr, who is quite difficult to contain from beyond the arc when he catches fire. Moreover, American has a fairly strong supporting cast led by frontcourt mates Brian Gilmore and Jordan Nichols. If they can successfully control the glass against Patriot League opponents, American should win out. The biggest key to their offensive success rests in the hands of an even smaller guard in 5'9 Derrick Mercer, who will have to control the pace of the game. His ability to distribute the ball is going to determine how well Carr and the rest of the team fairs on offense. If they can maintain their rebounding margin over opponents and avoid foul trouble, the Eagles should make an appearance in the Big Dance.

My Selection: American (again)
In recent memory, the favorite has always made it to- at the very least- the Patriot League final. So, I cannot imagine American getting upset before that time, unless they run into significant foul trouble. Barring an offensive collapse on the part of Carr and Gilmore, American should run the table and claim their rightful spot as the Patriot League champion.

Sleeper Picks- Navy and Holy Cross
The greatest sleeper pick that this tournament has to offer is clearly 3rd place finisher Navy. While they have lost to American, their contests have always been down to the wire. 6'4 guard Kaleo Kina impacts the game in a variety of ways- he is a capable passer, a finisher attacking the basket, and a great rebounding guard. His success on the offensive end will determine how well Navy fairs against the likes of Holy Cross and American. He has seen some success against American in the past, but has struggled against the Crusaders. This team must come to play early in the game with significant defensive pressure in order to simply wear out its opponents. If they can control the glass, the Midshipmen could very well come out on top. That responsibility falls in the hands of senior forward Adam Teague, whose production is the X factor in Navy's Patriot tournament run.
The second sleeper team is usual contender Holy Cross, which is back towards the top of the conference. The Crusaders have won eight out of their last ten to close the regular season. This young team will rely on their defensive pressure to upset the likes of Carr and Kina. They are fairly balanced offensively and possess many different weapons. If they play within themselves and at the tempo they desire, the Crusaders could very well win the Patriot League yet again.



Sun Belt-

Clear Cut Favorite: Western Kentucky
After a highly improbable run to the sweet sixteen last March, the Hilltoppers are the leading candidate to once again win the Sun Belt. This season, they bulster a huge blow out victory against a since improved Louisville squad. However, this team is as deadly as any bracket buster in the country. After the losses of Brazelton and Lee however, WKU possesses a much more balanced offensive attack. Mendez-Valdez and AJ Slaughter will hit shots from the perimeter. Both are deadly weapons from the three point line. However, WKU wins when their interior players are at their best. This means that Jeremy Evans and Magley will have to corrale some offensive rebounds and play physical defense. Evans possesses the length to alter shots and be a solid help defender. Kerusch and Pettigrew will have to provide some help scoring inside if this team is to make an NCAA tournament appearance.

My Selection: Middle Tennessee St.
While this may seem highly unlikely- especially with the way this team has been playing of late- the Raiders are still a force to be reckoned with. If star forward Desmond Yates can stay out of foul trouble, this team could very well surprise experts. Kevin Kanaskie must hit some perimeter shots and Green has to find some success attacking the basket as well. If Yates can defend some of the bigger forwards inside, this team could make a run. The key is the ability to Nigel Johnson and Green to feed him in post up attempts. If their passes are lacksidasical, this team's chances are shot. Also, Kermit Davis must keep his team from playing selfishly on the offensive end, which they are prone to at times. Finally, the emergence of Haddock on put back attempts coupled with the potential production of Calvin O' Neil are going to be X factors in the Raiders attempt to reach the NCAA tournament- after falling just short a year ago.

Sleeper Picks: Troy and Arkansas Little-Rock
Troy has been one of the greatest enigmas in the league this year. They are on a tear as of late, winning twelve out of their last thirteen games. The Trojans are a team that relies exclusively on the three point shot. When they hit some long range bombs, they can stay in a game, but when they go cold, it is often difficult for them to recover. Brandon Hazzard has been unconscious from behind the three point line. If he and slasher Richard Delk can provide a consistent scoring threat to go along with their scrappy defense, several teams may be in for a big surprise.
My other sleeper choice can hardly be considered a sleeper. Holding the best overall record in the entire league, Arkansas Little-Rock is a balanced scoring club. The inside outside combination of Shane Edwards and Steven Moore lead the charge on this end of the floor. Moore is a capable shooter, while Edwards has a knack for scoring inside. The ability of John Fowler to lock down top scoring options is going to be the greatest key to this other Trojan team's success. If Moore can minimize his turnovers, these Trojans should advance far and potentially receive a bid.