The Power's Big Board 2024

[The-Power]

For posteriority and right before the draft. I haven't had enough time to do a deep dive on all prospects, so my level of confidence is limited by that. As always, the order within tiers is not fixed but also not random with somewhat higher confidence in those on top than at the bottom.

Tier 1
–

Tier 2
–

Tier 3

Reed Sheppard
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

– Bounced back on Sarr a bit. I feel like I have been a bit too harsh on him for being underwhelming as the supposed top prospect and I do still have my concerns. I'm not sure if he is skilled enough to be the 4 on offense and not sure enough if he'll be best suited at the 5 on defense, and I've grown cautious of athletic but skinny big men with question marks around the utility of their skills when they have merely come in flashes. But he's still one of the best options available, and you simply must hope that he can gain weight and/or develop a reliable outside shot.
– I love Sheppard as a prospect, as readers of this board know, but that does not make me blind to his shortcomings (lack of size, low volume, limited self-creation and little rim pressure) and the risks that come with them. Still, in the end, I'm not sure who else I'd rather draft than him. Elite shooter, great passer and ball mover, and great hands on defense. It's the Haliburton archetype even as I am not counting on him to develop the same way in the NBA (it's too much to expect for almost any prospect).
– Topic has seen his stock fall considerably but I'd still draft him very early. As with anyone, there are obvious concerns – horrible defense with low motor, lack of an in-between game, and questions about his 3pt shot – but he's one of the few players you can at least envision as a primary on-ball creator with his elite driving ability and advanced playmaking foundation. He may never amount to much but I think he's worth rolling the dice on for some team looking to swing rather than play it safe (provided there are no medical red flags).

Tier 4

Zach Edey
Dalton Knecht
Zaccharie Risacher
Cody Williams
Kyshawn George
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Stephon Castle
Donovan Clingan
Jared McCain
Kyle Filipowski
Carlton Carrington

Very rough order with this tier and a lot depends on which teams is up and what they are looking for.
– I've come around on Edey as can be followed in his dedicated thread, so I won't elaborate here except for saying that I can see him ending up anywhere between useful rotation big (decent albeit not great floor) to high-level starter (solid ceiling but I don't trust his processing ability enough to realistically project stardom).
– I've watched more of Knecht after the end of the season and really like his baseline. In this draft, that matters a lot and he still has a bit of upside as well if his scoring fully translates.
– I've had my concerns about Risacher and that has led me to dropping him a tier. I still like him as a 3/Cut&D prospect but the rest of his game is just so underwhelming that I find it hard to imagine him in any other role.
– I've also lowered my projection of Cody Williams. I think I really wanted to like him more than I should because he has some nice tools and the draft was so unappealing at the top. But with some time and space, it's tough for me to overlook his limitations and mediocre production to the same extent. I can see him as one of the best players in the draft if he develops like his brother but I can also see him being a rather mediocre NBA player. His first step is to develop his all-around skills to become passable – which can turn him into a useful NBA wing – and then see if he can push some traits closer to elite territory.
– I have not followed Kyshawn George closely throughout the year, so I could be off. But looking at his tape and production, I can't justify a big gap between him an Cody Williams. Different strengths (shooting versus interior scoring) but overall similar appeal (drafting an all-around wing with good positional size) with similar limitations (strength, athleticism, self-creation). He's an interesting prospect with a decent enough floor in this range (should be an NBA player due to the combination of solid size, shooting and defensive effort).
– Dropped Holland a bit as well. I still love his effort and athleticism, but the shooting concerns are enough for me to drop him from the first tier.
– With Dillingham, the size obviously concerns me and he has a bit of a gunner mentality that could work out for him but also may limit him to a bench role if he's not good enough at still. Still, in the end I cannot ignore his elite production and his ability to take on a large creation role at good efficiency. He is one of those players who could end up being an All-Star but who may also bounce from team to team because he cannot quite find a home with his aggressive play style and likely limitations in the playoffs.
– Castle was my favorite prospect coming out of HS. He has positively surprised me with his defense but seriously disappointed me with his shooting. If he were a plus shooter, he'd be in my top 3 but as is, it is just too big of a question mark to have him much higher. I still think he can be a useful NBA player for a long time even if his shot only becomes respectable and I also do still see a path where his shooting picks up considerably and he ends up being at least a high-level starter with his strong all-around skill-set. Yet the latter is an ideal outcome and if I had to draft him, I'd be much more comfortable later in the lottery.
– Clingan I have as the best rim protector in this class and I do believe that this translates (perimeter defense is a different question, though). On offense he has enough to be playable but I question his touch around the rim and his ability to establish and hold position down low with his high center of gravity. Thus I do not see him as a notable offensive player. Add to it the injury concerns and poor conditioning and I still think he's a valid lottery prospect (or just outside) but I cannot go as high as some mocks and big boards have him.
– McCain is someone who I view as having limited upside but a decent floor. He's an excellent shooting prospect and he's strong (that really matters to me) and so I find it easy to project NBA minutes for him. But with his lack of size and, importantly, playmaking limitations in addition to not being a notable self-creator, I also don't expect him to be anything more than a rotational player at the next level.
– I was long unsure what to do with Filipowski. There are some things that bother me with him but in the end, he's a highly productive skilled big man who has at least a chance to hang defensively in the NBA (not a given but clearly possible). Thus, I expect him to be a rotational player in the NBA (perhaps best suited as a first big off the bench). That's fine value here.
– Carrington, akin to George, is someone I have not followed closely and thus do not feel very confident in my assessment. The shot making paired with decent size and some playmaking ability intrigues me enough to place him somewhere here but his lack of offense around the rim, the resulting low FTr, lack of elite athleticism and defensive question marks also prevent me from being much higher on him at least for the time being.

Next up

Tyler Smith
Matas Buzelis
Johnny Furphy
Devin Carter
Nikola Djurisic
Isaiah Collier
Pelle Larsson
Tidjan Salaun
Ja’Kobe Walter
Tristan Da Silva
Yves Missi
Kevin McCullar
Tyler Kolek
Justin Edwards

Some of them could have been a tier up as well but I was just less comfortable with them. A couple notes on some of the less usual rankings:
– Buzelis just never fully convinced me. If his 3pt shot develops (as seems possible) I see him as a rotation player, but the flaws make it difficult for me to see him as a lottery pick. I could be wrong on him, though, as I have not followed the G-League closely.
– Carter has seen his stock rise, and I can understand why. I just don’t feel very comfortable placing him even higher than where I have him considering that this is his first truly great season and the question marks around shooting and creation in combination with his age make me wary. I would be very happy if he turns into a defense-first starting Guard, though.
– I have never seen a full game of Djurisic, so I could be very off in either direction and it would not surprise me. But from what I have seen, he intrigues me enough to at least put him in this group for now.
– Larsson is my outlier pick. I dropped him a bit but I do believe that he’s just a good all-around player for whom NBA teams can find minutes if his shooting translates.
– I could be off on Salaun. I haven’t seen much at all of him but what I saw has not fully convinced me. I can see the outlines of an NBA player but he still has ways to go, it seems, and I’m not convinced his upside is all that special. Again, though, I base this off very little and fully admit that I might be off here.
– I’ve been fairly down on Walter for a while now. The realistic hopes of him becoming a solid 3&D player keep him in the first round for me but I struggle to see his case for the lottery.
– Da Silva never popped for me when I watched Colorado, so I’m hesitant to put him higher considering his age. That being said, he is a very solid player, and I would not push back against someone who argues that they see him as an NBA rotation player. He could be.
– With Edwards, it's unclear if he's truly an NBA player but he has the size and shooting foundation to have a solid chance to be one and thus warrants being picked with a late FRP or early SRP in my opinion.

Antonio Reeves, Baylor Scheierman, Harrison Ingram and Keshad Johnson are four other players I would like to shout out as players for whom I see an NBA role. I would be more comfortable drafting them in the second round, though. Same holds true for Kel’el Ware, to be honest, even though I might be the only one thinking out. I also want to like Ryan Dunn and would draft him in the second round, but his offensive limitations would just be too severe for me to invest a FRP.

There are a bunch of players mocked in other places that I cannot comment on because I have not seen enough of them (often because I have not been intrigued enough by their basic profile to dive deeper). Thus, I’m sure I am missing some interesting players and won’t claim that this list is truly comprehensive.

[FarBeyondDriven]

For posteriority and right before the draft. I haven't had enough time to do a deep dive on all prospects, so my level of confidence is limited by that.

Tier 1
–

Tier 2
–

Tier 3

Reed Sheppard
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

– Bounced back on Sarr a bit. I feel like I have been a bit too harsh on him for being underwhelming as the supposed top prospect and I do still have my concerns. I'm not sure if he is skilled enough to be the 4 on offense and not sure enough if he'll be best suited at the 5 on defense, and I've grown cautious of athletic but skinny big men with question marks around the utility of their skills when they have merely come in flashes. But he's still one of the best options available, and you simply must hope that he can gain weight and/or develop a reliable outside shot.
– I love Sheppard as a prospect, as readers of this board know, but that does not make me blind to his shortcomings (lack of size, low volume, limited self-creation and little rim pressure) and the risks that come with them. Still, in the end, I'm not sure who else I'd rather draft than him. Elite shooter, great passer and ball mover, and great hands on defense. It's the Haliburton archetype even as I am not counting on him to develop the same way in the NBA (it's too much to expect for almost any prospect).
– Topic has seen his stock fall considerably but I'd still draft him very early. As with anyone, there are obvious concerns – horrible defense with low motor, lack of an in-between game, and questions about his 3pt shot – but he's one of the few players you can at least envision as a primary on-ball creator with his elite driving ability and advanced playmaking foundation. He may never amount to much but I think he's worth rolling the dice on for some team looking to swing rather than play it safe (provided there are no medical red flags).

Tier 4

Zach Edey
Dalton Knecht
Zaccharie Risacher
Cody Williams
Kyshawn George
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Stephon Castle
Donovan Clingan
Jared McCain
Kyle Filipowski
Carlton Carrington

Very rough order with this tier and a lot depends on which teams is up and what they are looking for.
– I've come around on Edey as can be followed in his dedicated thread, so I won't elaborate here except for saying that I can see him ending up anywhere between useful rotation big (decent albeit not great floor) to high-level starter (solid ceiling but I don't trust his processing ability enough to realistically project stardom).
– I've watched more of Knecht after the end of the season and really like his baseline. In this draft, that matters a lot and he still has a bit of upside as well if his scoring fully translates.
– I've had my concerns about Risacher and that has led me to dropping him a tier. I still like him as a 3/Cut&D prospect but the rest of his game is just so underwhelming that I find it hard to imagine him in any other role.
– I've also lowered my projection of Cody Williams. I think I really wanted to like him more than I should because he has some nice tools and the draft was so unappealing at the top. But with some time and space, it's tough for me to overlook his limitations and mediocre production to the same extent. I can see him as one of the best players in the draft if he develops like his brother but I can also see him being a rather mediocre NBA player. His first step is to develop his all-around skills to become passable – which can turn him into a useful NBA wing – and then see if he can push some traits closer to elite territory.
– I have not followed Kyshawn George closely throughout the year, so I could be off. But looking at his tape and production, I can't justify a big gap between him an Cody Williams. Different strengths (shooting versus interior scoring) but overall similar appeal (drafting an all-around wing with good positional size) with similar limitations (strength, athleticism, self-creation). He's an interesting prospect with a decent enough floor in this range (should be an NBA player due to the combination of solid size, shooting and defensive effort).
– Dropped Holland a bit as well. I still love his effort and athleticism, but the shooting concerns are enough for me to drop him from the first tier.
– With Dillingham, the size obviously concerns me and he has a bit of a gunner mentality that could work out for him but also may limit him to a bench role if he's not good enough at still. Still, in the end I cannot ignore his elite production and his ability to take on a large creation role at good efficiency. He is one of those players who could end up being an All-Star but who may also bounce from team to team because he cannot quite find a home with his aggressive play style and likely limitations in the playoffs.
– Castle was my favorite prospect coming out of HS. He has positively surprised me with his defense but seriously disappointed me with his shooting. If he were a plus shooter, he'd be in my top 3 but as is, it is just too big of a question mark to have him much higher. I still think he can be a useful NBA player for a long time even if his shot only becomes respectable and I also do still see a path where his shooting picks up considerably and he ends up being at least a high-level starter with his strong all-around skill-set. Yet the latter is an ideal outcome and if I had to draft him, I'd be much more comfortable later in the lottery.
– Clingan I have as the best rim protector in this class and I do believe that this translates (perimeter defense is a different question, though). On offense he has enough to be playable but I question his touch around the rim and his ability to establish and hold position down low with his high center of gravity. Thus I do not see him as a notable offensive player. Add to it the injury concerns and poor conditioning and I still think he's a valid lottery prospect (or just outside) but I cannot go as high as some mocks and big boards have him.
– McCain is someone who I view as having limited upside but a decent floor. He's an excellent shooting prospect and he's strong (that really matters to me) and so I find it easy to project NBA minutes for him. But with his lack of size and, importantly, playmaking limitations in addition to not being a notable self-creator, I also don't expect him to be anything more than a rotational player at the next level.
– I was long unsure what to do with Filipowski. There are some things that bother me with him but in the end, he's a highly productive skilled big man who has at least a chance to hang defensively in the NBA (not a given but clearly possible). Thus, I expect him to be a rotational player in the NBA (perhaps best suited as a first big off the bench). That's fine value here.
– Carrington, akin to George, is someone I have not followed closely and thus do not feel very confident in my assessment. The shot making paired with decent size and some playmaking ability intrigues me enough to place him somewhere here but his lack of offense around the rim, the resulting low FTr, lack of elite athleticism and defensive question marks also prevent me from being much higher on him at least for the time being.

Next up

Tyler Smith
Matas Buzelis
Johnny Furphy
Devin Carter
Nikola Djurisic
Isaiah Collier
Pelle Larsson
Tidjan Salaun
Ja’Kobe Walter
Tristan Da Silva
Yves Missi
Kevin McCullar
Tyler Kolek
Justin Edwards

Some of them could have been a tier up as well but I was just less comfortable with them. A couple notes on some of the less usual rankings:
– Buzelis just never fully convinced me. If his 3pt shot develops (as seems possible) I see him as a rotation player, but the flaws make it difficult for me to see him as a lottery pick. I could be wrong on him, though, as I have not followed the G-League closely.
– Carter has seen his stock rise, and I can understand why. I just don’t feel very comfortable placing him even higher than where I have him considering that this is his first truly great season and the question marks around shooting and creation in combination with his age make me wary. I would be very happy if he turns into a defense-first starting Guard, though.
– I have never seen a full game of Djurisic, so I could be very off in either direction and it would not surprise me. But from what I have seen, he intrigues me enough to at least put him in this group for now.
– Larsson is my outlier pick. I dropped him a bit but I do believe that he’s just a good all-around player for whom NBA teams can find minutes if his shooting translates.
– I could be off on Salaun. I haven’t seen much at all of him but what I saw has not fully convinced me. I can see the outlines of an NBA player but he still has ways to go, it seems, and I’m not convinced his upside is all that special. Again, though, I base this off very little and fully admit that I might be off here.
– I’ve been fairly down on Walter for a while now. The realistic hopes of him becoming a solid 3&D player keep him in the first round for me but I struggle to see his case for the lottery.
– Da Silva never popped for me when I watched Colorado, so I’m hesitant to put him higher considering his age. That being said, he is a very solid player, and I would not push back against someone who argues that they see him as an NBA rotation player. He could be.
– With Edwards, it's unclear if he's truly an NBA player but he has the size and shooting foundation to have a solid chance to be one and thus warrants being picked with a late FRP or early SRP in my opinion.

Antonio Reeves, Baylor Scheierman and Harrison Ingram are three other players I would like to shout out as players for whom I see an NBA role. I would be more comfortable drafting them in the second round, though. Same holds true for Kel’el Ware, to be honest, even though I might be the only one thinking out. I also want to like Ryan Dunn and would draft him in the second round, but his offensive limitations would just be too severe for me to invest a FRP.

There are a bunch of players mocked in other places that I cannot comment on because I have not seen enough of them (often because I have not been intrigued enough by their basic profile to dive deeper). Thus, I’m sure I am missing some interesting players and won’t claim that this list is truly comprehensive.

well done

[The-Power]

Added Justin Edwards as my last FRP as I forgot about him (he's somewhere in that late 1st/early 2nd round range). Also Keshad Johnson as someone who should be drafted with a SRP and potentially find some minutes on an NBA team.