The Power's Big Board, Draft Thoughts, etc. 2025

[The-Power]

For now that's mostly a place to keep early draft thoughts in one place that will later help with the creation of a proper big board this year. It's been a very interesting class thus far – driven primarily by a nice crop of Freshmen.

Duke
Not much to say about Flagg but still important to point out that he has lived up to my expectations. Great all-around offensive player with good defense. He's not a defensive juggernaut but that's not something I expected him to be – at least in the NBA – anyway. But he should be a very good defender and he can do a bit of everything on offense. I don't have him in the absolute top tier of prospects of the past decade but he looks like an above average top pick. I am intrigued by Maluach, too. He's a bit more difficult to project because he must be one of the best rim protectors in the NBA to justify a lottery selection but I think that's possible. These long elite rim protectors with skill limitations have had some decent success in the NBA as of late (thinking of Lively and Kessler, for example) but it's not a sufficient condition. I'll be trying to figure out if Maluach falls into that category for the rest of the season. Finally, I like Knueppel for what he is. He's more than a shooter, he's a scorer – but someone who might struggle a bit with the length in the NBA. He might be able to figure it out, though, if he can leverage the threat of his shot and properly channel his willingness to take contact. Still, there are some question marks in other areas of the game as well and therefore I see him as more of a late lottery pick right now.

BYU
Demin has been the most pleasant surprise for me. Just an elite playmaker with great size and instincts plus a solid looking shot that was a bit of a question mark before the season. He projects to be one of the few players in this draft (and most drafts only have a select few) who could be the clear offensive engine of an NBA team. His ball handling is good for his size but needs some more refinement going forward to limit turnovers. He can score in a variety of ways but I'm still curious to see if he can be a high-level scorer in the NBA – it's fathomable but he has his work cut out for him. On defense I think he'll be playable due to his size that offers match-up flexibility but with clear limitations. Still, he looks like a top 3 pick at this point. The other player to mention is Catchings. He has a chance to be a coveted 3&D Forward. But right now he's not a good enough shooter for the shots he takes and he is very much the definition of a chucker who thinks ‘shoot’ first, second and third. He'll need to adjust in that regard. It's very doable but I also don't expect him to be any kind of creator or connector in the NBA. He also needs to get stronger. Perhaps another year in college would serve him well; I suppose it depends on how he looks throughout the season.

Rutgers
I have expressed my skepticism concerning Harper and Bailey. It's not that I don't see them as lottery picks – but that I am not as high as most others seem to be. At least not yet. Concerning Bailey, he has the ability to hit tough shots and that looks good and makes scouts and fans giddy. But what I want to see from him is the ability to create easier shots so he doesn't always have to hit long jumpers and shots on which he fades away, and I want to see him create easy shots for others, too. And that's difficult to see with his limitations as a ball handler and passer. I loved, however, that he contests well when he's in the vicinity and that he has been willing to move the ball (though his passing skills are really lacking). With Harper, I love his physical profile – the size and strength. Players with his body type and physicality tend to have an easier path to at least some success in today's NBA. But the rest of his game raises a lot of questions for me. Can he finish effectively when pure force is not enough? Can he shoot efficiently from deep? Can he even reliably get contested shots off with his release? Can he be a primary creator for his team? I'm not so sure, and I wouldn't want to be the team betting on it with a top 5 pick right now. This reads very negative – more than it should – but that's primarily because I try to justify my position. So when I'm lower on a player than most others, it'll focus more on the concerns while it will be the opposite when the context is reversed. Those two are still good prospects and there's also still time for me to come around more to where others are.

Arizona
I seem to be one of Bryant's biggest fans. He clearly looks like an NBA player on the floor. Not a high-level shot creator by any means but he has a solid all-around foundation to build on and obviously the length and athleticism to play in the NBA. I like that he is comfortable taking 3s, and not just the wide open ones. It bodes well because his shot certainly needs to be at a good level for him to be a starter in the NBA. I'm not oblivious to his limitations, of course. I don't expect stardom and I don't expect him to be an elite defender either (but a very capable one). But I do believe he has the profile of a player NBA teams will always want to have on their rosters – whether as a starter or a rotation player. I am also one of the biggest fans of Lewis. Once again, I am fully aware of his limitations, primarily on the ball and as a shooter. In fact, for him it is even more important that his shot comes around or else he may never be a high-minutes player at the next level. But the foundation is really good. The strength and athleticism paired with an elite motor and defensive tenacity sets him up well on the path to becoming an impactful role player in the NBA. He's a solid connective passer, too. His ball handling and shooting is obviously subpar for an NBA wing and it's going to be interesting to see if he can draw fouls on his drives at the next level because currently he relies a lot on his strength and willingness to take contact rather than skill on his drives. If I were a GM on a playoff team, though, I would want him on my team and see what he can bring. Bryant to me – if he declares – looks like a clear lottery pick. Lewis is someone I'd consider in the late lottery as well but with awareness that this might be a reach (and he would have to give me some more confidence in his shot). Still a clear-cut FRP for me, though.

Illinois
I have already mentioned in a couple threads that Riley is a top 5 prospect for me at the moment. His great positional size and an advanced scoring skill-set is in and of itself enough to put him on the map. But what I'm also impressed by is his motor on both ends and his ability to navigate screens at his size on defense which really does propel him to the next level as a prospect. Still a lot of areas in which he has to grow but the foundation is just so good. On the ball and off the ball, he simply looks like an NBA player in terms of the actions you can run with and through him. He could end up being one of the best scorers in this draft at a position of need for many NBA teams, and with enough ancillary skills and defense to fully leverage that scoring ability. Jakucionis is also an interesting player. Big Guards who are good passers rightfully have NBA scouts paying close attention. If he can show scoring aggression when needed while maintaining efficiency with the ball in his hands, he will certainly be in the lottery conversation. Looking forward to seeing his development throughout the season.

Texas
Johnson has had an impressive start to his college career. The scoring upside is obvious and may be the best in the draft. I am curious to see where he ended up as a shooter by season's end. Is he one of the best pure shooters or just a very capable one? If it's the former, he'll likely be a top 5 pick considering he has the ability to create for himself in a variety of ways (though his rim pressure is something to look at throughout the year) and sufficient size to alleviate some of the potential concerns on defense. If his shooting is good but not great, he'll probably need to show me some more in regards to playmaking and prove to be an above average college defender (especially on the ball) to be up that high.

Maryland
I'm starting to buy Queen's stock as noted elsewhere (something I was not sure of to start the season). A big that can dribble, pass, shoot and rebound just feels like he'll translate. At worst I think you'll get a useful back-up big, at best something closer to an offensive hub. His broader archetype has found some offensive success in the NBA of late (Sabonis, Şengün, Adebayo – slightly undersized, sturdy bigs who can dribble, pass, post up and shoot a bit). I'm not particularly worried about his defense. Sure, don't expect him to be a great defender but I do think he's capable of defending in the NBA. I think part of the skepticism is based on how he looks, and how he moves when covering longer distances or when quick twitch athleticism is required. But he's actually quite decent at moving his feet to cover smaller distances which should allow him to not be a liability on switches. I would compare him to Looney in that regard. Doesn't look like he should be able to defend effectively in the NBA when you see him run but he most definitely can.

Arkansas
I am very high on Thiero. Perhaps unreasonably so. But he is firmly in lottery contention for me at this point. He can offer some of the same things Kuminga brings to the table. Not the same level of scorer, I'd reckon, but he offers the benefit of a better motor (which, however, clearly needs fine-tuning to lead to a consistent positive impact – it's not always used in smart ways). The combination of athleticism, size and motor is (among) the very best in this draft. I am wait-and-see on Fland. I think he'll make it to the NBA but then he needs to be either an elite scorer (on the basis of an elite jumper) or an elite playmaker to stick out as more than a bench Guard. It's possible but players of his size just have a harder path to set themselves apart at the next level considering the plethora of capable scorers and shot creators with size limitations. Those players often make an NBA team but it takes a lot more to become key players on good teams. I am not convinced enough of rest of the prospects on that team to elaborate beyond those two.

Baylor
Edgecombe is fun to watch. I still don't see his skill level for his size as where it would need to be for a top 5 pick in a good draft, so in that sense I am lower on him than others. But he's going to be a useful NBA player. He reminds me of GPII in a lot of ways and especially in how they use their athletic gifts to consistently make eye-popping plays on both ends with a motor that does not stop. I will be monitoring him closely to gauge where he is at as a playmaker, creator and shooter.

Alabama
Philon is the guy who piques my interest the most. His activity level is insanely high and despite not being a shooter, he moves non-stop off the ball where he finds and creates cracks in defenses leading to a bunch of scoring and creation opportunities. Good to see also that he is willing to take 3s when available in the last game(s) and I really hope that continues. That alone would make him a lot more intriguing as a prospect. He has the ability to make an impact as a scorer, playmaker and rebounder at the college level and he should continue to draw eye balls from scouts. I am lukewarm on Reid. His profile has appeal but he needs to show that he is good enough first for it to really matter.

North Carolina
I am interested in seeing the progression of Jackson. Can he leverage his elite athleticism for shot creation? Can he be a capable shooter to play off the ball and punish defenses in the pick-and-roll or isolation when defenders gap him? Can he be a consistent playmaker? All question marks but I see a path and if he can show out enough in two of the three areas then he immediately becomes a contender for a lottery pick (perhaps even mid-lottery). I am not particularly high on Powell. His skill limitations seem too great right now to pique my interest. I hope for a KJ Lewis-like trajectory with him but that might also require a second year in college.

Other College Players
Mgbacko reminds me of Moody. I like him as a prospect and he has a decent chance to end up in the (late) lottery in my big board. Freeman has not convinced me yet at all. I am also not bullish on Newell yet but more than on Freeman. JT Toppin is a curious case. I am not yet sure what to make of him but if his production continues he'll force me to spend a lot more time on him to figure out what is likely or not likely to translate. I'm also keeping an eye on his teammate Darrion Williams. There might be an NBA player in him though I am not sure yet, but I love the strength and see the potential all-around skill set. I also don't yet know where I stand on McKneeley except that I am fairly certain he's a FRP. Bethea is on my to-watch list but I have nothing to say about him yet. Broome and Murray-Boyles are two other players I plan on monitoring but have no firm thoughts on them yet as far as their draft ranking is concerned. Kam Jones has a good chance to play himself into the first round of the draft (I had him as an early SRP last season). Cedric Coward has an insane scoring profile (in a good way) and therefore warrants in-depth scouting, too.

International Players
At this point of the season I have not scouted them much at all. What I have seen from Traore in the past, which is more than of any of the other players, I liked him as a top 3 pick. His start to the season has not been great and that is to be monitored. I still have him in my preliminary top 5, though, based on the talent he has shown at international events in the past. His ability to drive and get where he wants was elite and he could create well off it. Hugo González has played well in the youth tournaments and I liked what I saw of him (though not as much as Traore). He might be a very difficult evaluation, though, if he continues to not play much at all. Essengue and Saraf have me interested but I need to watch more games from them to form a clearer opinion, especially since I have struggled in the past when it comes to evaluating international talents beyond the obvious generational ones like Luka and Victor. I know some people really appreciate Zikarsky's talent, so I'll keep an eye on him. Suggestions for other international players to follow more closely are always appreciated as I am not up-to-date on the latest risers or under-the-radar prospects.

[The-Power]

Preliminary thoughts on the rankings. Pretty rough at this point. What I will say is that I expect some movement up or down one tier but not more than that. Exception are the three international guys at the bottom that I put down as lottery watch for the time being mostly on the basis of reputation. I will put them into one of the tiers proper only after I had a chance to take a closer look at them.

Top Prospects
Cooper Flagg
Egor Demin
Nolan Traoré
Will Riley

Lottery Picks
Tre Johnson
Ron Harper Jr.
Ace Bailey
Kon Knueppel
Derik Queen
Carter Bryant

Lottery Watch
Adou Thiero
Kasparas Jakučionis
Khaman Maluach
V. J. Edgecombe
Ian Jackson
Mackenzie Mgbako
KJ Lewis
Liam McKneeley
Asa Newell
Labaron Philon

Hugo González
Noa Essengue
Ben Saraf

[The Moose]

A lot of similar thoughts for me.
I like the Riley > Bailey take

Traore not scaring you off atm?

[The-Power]

Traore not scaring you off atm?

It does concern me but I have seen him play exceptionally well against some of his peer prospects. So for the time being I'm hesitant to throw those information out because that feels like succumbing to recency bias. But if the struggles continue, it will certainly make me think long and hard about his ranking.

[The-Power]

I anticipate some more changes over the coming weeks before the ranking stabilizes with larger samples and more opportunities for me to watch the players more closely.

Since the last tiered list I would move up Harper Jr. and Jakučionis, and I am close to doing so with Queen as well. I would also add Sorber to the list but remain wait-and-see as I would want to see him to consistently perform well against tougher opponents. Fland is also someone who I might add to the ‘lottery watch’ tier soon. Kam Jones would need to show his current level of play for the whole season to be considered as a potential lottery prospect but he certainly has been cementing himself as a player in the tier right after that – and a clear FRP – and should ultimately move ahead of some of the players in the current lottery watch tier if nothing else (considering that quite a few players are not in there based on merit for this season but HS reputation and flashes, which won't keep them in there if their performances do not improve over the course of the season).

Moving down Riley (still very high on him obviously) and Bryant (though I still like him a lot as well) where I probably got a bit ahead of myself due to what I believe they could be rather than what they currently are (and the related risk of not bridging the gap must be reflected in the draft stock). KJ Lewis might ultimately be a similar case of that but I am not quite there yet. Knueppel has been moving down, too. Demin and Traoré are on the verge but I still want to wait and see a little longer where they go from here. They will need to pick it up (again), though, to remain in the top tier.

Still don't have a good enough read on the other international players to place them properly, and also still have a couple interesting college players on my to-watch list that may prove to be worthy of inclusion in this list (for example Fears and Richardson who I have not seen play in full games yet, but who clearly stand out in terms of production early in the season).

[The-Power]

Probably my final thoughts before the draft.

BIG BOARD – LOTTERY

1. Cooper Flagg

2. Dylan Harper

3. Noa Essengue
4. Carter Bryant
5. Cedric Coward
6. Ace Bailey
7. V.J. Edgecombe
8. Collin Murray-Boyles
9. Derik Queen
10. Kasparas Jakucionis
11. Rasheer Fleming
12. Tre Johnson
13. Jase Richardson
14. Adou Thiero
15. Egor Demin

TIER 1

Cooper Flagg
Not much need to be said. Elite prospect. Good defender, good motor, super versatile on both ends and I have been very impressed by his offensive ability and growth. I think he's already showing a lot of what current Tatum brings to the table, at a much younger age than Tatum himself, and so his realistic upside could very well be even higher.

TIER 2

Dylan Harper
Not in the same tier as Flagg for me but still ahead of the rest. One of the only players that I believe has a solid chance at becoming a franchise corner stone by virtue of being an offensive anchor that does not bleed points on defense in the playoffs. I don’t fully buy his shot but he has shown enough to believe that he can keep defenses honest, and he has a chance to be one of the NBA’s best drivers who puts constant pressure on the rim. Add to that his solid, though not elite, playmaking and his offensive potential is at best Harden-esque (though that is obviously the very high-end outcome). I’m not super intrigued by his defense but he has the combination of size and strength that goes a long way in the NBA to not be targeted.

TIER 3 / 3.5
Disclaimer: I found it very hard to differentiate within this tier. Lots of talent and intrigue, but also a ton of uncertainty. I tried to rank them by projecting them as a playoff players down the road. The greater their flaws or my concerns about them, the lower I tended to rank them. That said, you can certainly argue that some of the lower-ranked players in this tier have greater upside than some of the higher-ranked ones. It’s a balancing act and ultimately, for this big board, I may have valued floor and expected value-for-money a bit more than ceiling. If I had to make decisions in the draft board, though, that may be different especially for teams that are still looking for primary building blocks.

Noa Essengue
Very intrigued by his skill set. Moves very well, has great length and the potential to be disruptive. They already switch him onto Guards without thinking twice. Offensively he is somewhat limited but has a solid variety to his game already. He cuts very well into space, has tons of upside in transition, can play in the post against mismatches, attack close-outs and does not shy away from contact (love the FTr). I buy into his shooting upside, too, even though he may never be great in that regard. Self-creation is limited (though showing some flashes) and his frame is not ideal but there is a lot to like overall. I can definitely see him as a Jaden McDaniels level of player, and I honestly don’t think Risacher is a better prospect (though admittedly I never thought of him as a potential #1 pick).

Carter Bryant
Resident fan here. I love his floor. Great (though not perfect) and versatile defender with a very projectable shot, and the ability and willingness to impact the game in a more limited role. His superb athleticism in space adds to the appeal (though it is not as impressive in smaller spaces), and he has shown flashes of being a good extra passer. Creation upside is a bit more limited as he is not the most naturally gifted ball handler, creative shot maker or finisher, though I do feel like he has more to offer than what he was allowed to show in Arizona (especially in terms of showing the ability to play in the midrange area). Even still, it’s not difficult to see him as an OG Anunoby type of player with a positive but natural improvement arc. A player who offers good to great defense (of course OG's level of defense is a high-end outcome), line-up versatility on defense, floor spacing and possibly tertiary scoring on offense all while not impeding on anything the team and star players want to do. Though I do acknowledge that the uncertainty and risk is greater when drafting players with smaller roles in college.

Cedric Coward
I am very intrigued by Coward. I do realize that there is an obvious risk with taking him so high, primarily because he has not played against the highest level of competition, he tended to struggle more against better teams, and for us hobby-scouts there is more limited footage than for others. So the natural question is whether what he did translates to higher levels, perhaps more so than for most other players, and I would not blame anyone for being lower on him. That being said, he is just so intriguing to me. His efficiency across the board, on good volume across the board, is practically unheard of and super impressive no matter the competition. His scoring arsenal is so diverse, too, and he just looks like a pro in that regard. Add to that his length, the good defensive markers and solid production across the boxscore, and it’s not hard to be excited about him and hope for a Jalen Williams-esque trajectory from here on out. One thing I'm looking out for is his development as a playmaker off the dribble as there's not much there yet; his shot creation for others is very basic and comes mostly from a standstill or in transition. That development matters a lot when it comes to his offensive ceiling.

Ace Bailey
I have long wrestled with his ranking. I was not the biggest fan of his when he entered college, and I still have concerns about his basketball iq and some of his skills. So there certainly is a world in which Bailey never lives up to even this ranking. At the same time, he has impressed me on defense for the most part. I wish he was a bit less stiff but there is no doubt that he can be an impactful help defender and secondary rim protector who offers some line-up flexibility. He also impressed me with his motor (as I thought it was going to be low when it turned out to be completely solid). On offense, I don’t expect stardom from him with his ball handling and playmaking limitations, in addition to shot selection concerns; but I do buy into him as a plus shooter (who can score on contested shots, too, which has value) and I do see him as an effective cutter. So I envision him as a plus player on both ends as long as you don’t have him making complex decisions and he accepts a non-primary role (third option on offense, or second scoring option next to a lower-usage primary playmaker, on a good team as a solid outcome (akin to Michael Porter Jr.).

V.J. Edgecombe
Once again, I have moved him up and down throughout the season and even now. I do buy Edgecombe as a playoff rotation player, so that is already a big hurdle to clear. I think he can be an effective defender, he obviously has tons of upside as a transition scorer, I do think he should be able to knock down enough shots from deep to not be left completely unguarded, and I do like his extra passing and upside as a tertiary or maybe even secondary playmaker if he develops nicely. That is a great foundation. Still, I definitely do not project him as a primary (or even secondary) offensive option with his ball handling limitations and limitations as a finisher in tight spaces, especially when you also consider that he is not likely to ever be a big shooting threat. Plus then you add his lack of elite size which makes it hard to project his defense to end up in the highest echelon of NBA perimeter defenders. But if he can be an improved version of GPII, or what Caruso is on that Thunder team, then that’s a really awesome player to have on your playoff team.

Collin Murray-Boyles
Perhaps one of the toughest evaluations in this draft (though I feel that about several players here). At first, I was not very high on him. Poor shooter without great size is the type of player I usually knock down hard when it comes to rankings. But he has won me over a great deal for several reasons. First, I really like his defense which I did not expect. He is strong, he is smart, he is switchable, and he creates events. He’s the type of defender NBA teams really benefit from having in the playoffs. And on offense, he strikes me as a player with a good feel for the game. He is a genuinely good passer, he can attack the rim in the post and on drives, and I buy him as a good finisher despite the non-elite size for a player with his playstyle. Now, I will admit that if he never develops a somewhat reliable jump shot, his fit on many NBA teams becomes problematic. But while I don’t project him to be a good shooter, I see him developing a basic 3pt shot as realistically attainable and in that case I do expect him to be a valuable NBA playoff rotation player.

Derik Queen
I am writing this as one of Queen’s biggest proponents throughout the season. There is something about him that makes me want to buy stock. What most intrigues me, and what separates him from most players that may resemble him at first glance, is that I think of him as someone who is potentially great at attacking the rim off the dribble. His ball handling for a big is very good, he is strong and creative, and he really understands how to draw and leverage contact. Add to this his upside as a playmaker, and he is a genuinely awesome offensive prospect as a big. He doesn’t have much of a 3pt shot yet and the form on his jump shot is a bit wonky, but he is not a non-shooter as evidenced by his FT% and his flashes in the midrange. He is a bit turnover prone at times but I think that can be worked out. On defense, I have defended him because I do see potential – especially out on the perimeter, since he is quite light on his feet when he tries. That in combination with his ability to attack from the perimeter also makes me believe he can play the 4 in addition to playing the 5 in the NBA. What holds him back is his conditioning and motor. Those need to be dramatically ramped up if he wants to ever be a core franchise player. Because as it stands, he’ll be a very clear negative on defense and that is rough for a starting big in the NBA, even when your offense is really good (though without great work ethic, I also think he’ll only be a good rather than great offensive big – which means he’d likely end up as a bench big). So the concerns are real but so is his upside if he ever starts taking the game seriously and work his butt off. I’m not sure how likely that is, which is why interviews and workouts will be very important for him, but the talent is too good to drop him too low.

Kasparas Jakucionis
Another player that grew on me a ton earlier in the season before falling again. What I loved about him was his scoring repertoire. Not only can he shoot, but he can use his size and physicality to get into the lane, draw contact and finish around the basket. He is also generally one of the more versatile scores in the lane. I like his upside as a playmaker but it’s clear that he’s not elite in that regard and the proneness to turn the ball over a ton is a concern. The question is: can he be the second best offensive player on a good team? And I think that is a possibility (though he will have to be a good shooter). If he’s not, however, then he’s not a lottery prospect. Because his defense (aside from rebounding) is just bad. Particularly his ability to get over and around screens was putrid, and he will definitely be targeted in the NBA by ball handlers in the PnR. He also really struggles to stay attached to off-ball players and contest their shots effectively, and that combination makes it tough to hide him. His size and strength offer some hope, but working his way up to just being below average on that end would already very much be a positive outcome.

Rasheer Fleming
How could I forget about Fleming. I have been pretty high on him for a while now. He just has good role player written all over him. And while that might not be tantalizing upside, if you ends up being an important playoff rotation player for a team then he'd have lived up to this draft position. Fleming has incredible size for a Forward with a wing span that puts most Centers to shame. He should be able to not only play the 4 but also some 5 at the next level, and with his length, plus athleticism and motor he has a very good chance to be a clear plus to potentially really good and disruptive modern NBA defender. I'd like to see him improve a bit more on the perimeter to be a truly switchable player, though. On offense, he should have a clearly defined role as an off-ball player who finishes plays at the rim and shoots from deep. Don't expect anything off the dribble or much as a decision-maker but he feels like an easy fit on offense. In the playoffs he'll have to prove to make quick and correct decisions but while never guaranteed, I do feel like that's doable. The biggest question mark probably is about his shooting improvement. Is it real and can he be a reliable or even good catch-and-shoot player in the NBA? That's to be determined but he has a decent chance and a good track record of improvement in college.

Tre Johnson
I have long debated whether I am too low on him here. And I might be. Because Tre is probably the best shot-maker from 6ft out in this draft. He can score on and off the ball, which is a great asset in the NBA, and he has shown flashes of basic playmaking that would make his actions a lot more effective if it translates. So why am I comparatively low on him? Well, I’d say that in recent years, his archetype has been overdrafted and not lived up to the hype in the NBA. I have no doubts that Tre can put up 20 PPG. But can he do it at consistently high efficiency as a player who does not get to the line all that much or finish at the rim all that well? Can NBA teams justify putting the ball in his hands when he is not an advanced playmaker? How much of the offensive value he provides is given back on defense where he projects to be negative? I’m thinking of Jalen Green, for example, who puts up big numbers but just isn’t all that impactful – and yet will be paid a ton of money. That’s the concern and why I have dropped him this far, fully aware that there is a world in which his shot making and overall offense becomes so good that he turns into an All-Star level player and make this take look off in hindsight. But I’d rather bet on the median outcome of some other players at this point in time.

Jase Richardson
For a long time, I struggled with placing him and truth be told, I still am a bit. At first, I did not think too much of him. Solid player in college, but at the next level? I just wasn’t all that intrigued. After looking into him more, I can safely say that he has moved up my board, though some others still seem to be higher on him. A key reason for that is that looking at the draft, he strikes me as the player most likely to have a Brunson-like development (of course I still would not bet on that). Meaning that I can see him being the kind of player who overcomes his size limitations (in part by using his strength, but also of course his skills and craftiness) to find a way to be a an efficient and very resilient scorer with just enough playmaking, which in turn allows him to serve as an offensive hub on an NBA team. That prospect is worth a pick in this range, in my opinion. Because his scoring efficiency and volume across the board is very impressive for his age and size. That said, it’s always a risk drafting a player of his size, especially when they are neither elite playmakers nor exceptional athletes. It’s banking on everything translating and then some, which is a risk but worth it at some point in the draft.

Adou Thiero
Thiero is another one of my favorites. I absolutely love his motor and physical tools. Strong, physical, ultra athletic, and solid measurements. Very few players can put exert as much pressure on their drives and cuts as he can, and he combines it with a non-stop motor. Give him a lane and he will either dunk it on you, finish through you, or draw a foul. Over and over again. That kind of superpower is a great baseline to work with because it gives him leverage even in the NBA. Plus he can absolutely weak havoc on defense as one of the elite stocks prospects over the past few drafts. Still, I would not call him an elite defender because he relies on athleticism more than instincts and smarts, which is to be expected from someone who could always dominate with athleticism; but the tools can certainly be harnessed. I think his playmaking is fine for his position and role, too, though you’d hope for some improvement before you trust him more with the ball in his hands. The obvious swing skill is his shot. Can he reliably knock down shots in the NBA and playoffs? I don’t know. But that will likely be the key distinguishing factor between energy guy off the bench and long-term starter. Because everything else, while not necessarily polished, can be worked with. He’s not a copy of Tari Eason, to be sure, but that is probably the blueprint for his role and minutes at the next level. One other thing he has going for him: he has shown improvement every year. I like to bet on such players.

Egor Demin
Demin might epitomize the roller coaster that is this year’s draft more than anyone else (though there are several candidates). I did not think of him too highly when I watched Real Madrid play at a youth tournament but that may also have been because he was not my primary focus back then. He then popped off the screen earlier in the season with his tantalizing passing ability paired with his great size. He seemed to always make the right play, too, and the scoring game against weaker opponents while not particularly good was still decent enough. That’s when I was really high on him. Unfortunately, his struggles against better opponents really made me reconsider. His inability to handle the ball under any kind of pressure does not bode well at all for his creation upside at the next level, and the shooting indicators are just not good enough to confidently project him as at least a capable shooter. So that’s two major concerns about a player who needs to ball in his hands to be maximized. His defense should be solid which is a plus for a primary or secondary offensive player, but it’s not good enough to lift him much up if he’s less than that. I think a decent outcome for him is a Josh Giddey arc but even that’s not overly exciting. There’s a chance he ends up better but also that he ends up worse. Ultimately though, with his next level passing chops while being Forward-sized, he still belongs in this draft range for what he could be if he truly hits and the fact that those two aspects help raise his floor (as long as he can at least knock down open shots which seems doable).

THE REST

Players that I have coming up next and firmly in the first round include Thomas Sorber, Kon Knueppel, Jeremiah Fears, Asa Newell, Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton and Will Riley (I might be missing one or two others). Those are all players that I either see as solid NBA players without a ton of upside, or potentially good (though not likely great) NBA players who, however, have a relatively low floor. Khaman Maluach, Nique Clifford and Ryan Kalkbrenner are players I am somewhat less confident about but who still belong in the conversation for what they could bring to playoff teams as potential rotation players.

I haven’t watched much of the international guys and only included one in the above group in Essengue. There is a chance that someone else would make it into that top 15 if I followed them more closely. Among the players I have seen a bit of, I’d say that Traore and Saraf for me are in the group right after the top 15. For Traore that’s a steep fall considering how high I was on him last summer, but the risk of him busting is very real as far as I’m concerned; and I’m not sure the upside is indeed worth taking him in the lottery regardless. Intuitively, I’d say that Hugo González also belongs in this group but that is all based on his performances with the youth teams and therefore not anything I state with confidence.

edit: Oh my, I completely forgot about Fleming. I added him now.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Probably my final thoughts before the draft.

BIG BOARD – LOTTERY

1. Cooper Flagg

2. Dylan Harper

3. Noa Essengue
4. Carter Bryant
5. Cedric Coward
6. Ace Bailey
7. V.J. Edgecombe
8. Collin Murray-Boyles
9. Derik Queen
10. Kasparas Jakucionis
11. Tre Johnson
12. Jase Richardson
13. Adou Thiero
14. Egor Demin

TIER 1

Cooper Flagg
Not much need to be said. Elite prospect. Good defender, good motor, super versatile on both ends and I have been very impressed by his offensive ability and growth. I think he's already showing a lot of what current Tatum brings to the table, at a much younger age than Tatum himself, and so his realistic upside could very well be even higher.

TIER 2

Dylan Harper
Not in the same tier as Flagg for me but still ahead of the rest. One of the only players that I believe has a solid chance at becoming a franchise corner stone by virtue of being an offensive anchor that does not bleed points on defense in the playoffs. I don’t fully buy his shot but he has shown enough to believe that he can keep defenses honest, and he has a chance to be one of the NBA’s best drivers who puts constant pressure on the rim. Add to that his solid, though not elite, playmaking and his offensive potential is at best Harden-esque (though that is obviously the very high-end outcome). I’m not super intrigued by his defense but he has the combination of size and strength that goes a long way in the NBA to not be targeted.

TIER 3 / 3.5
Disclaimer: I found it very hard to differentiate within this tier. Lots of talent and intrigue, but also a ton of uncertainty. I tried to rank them by projecting them as a playoff players down the road. The greater their flaws or my concerns about them, the lower I tended to rank them. That said, you can certainly argue that some of the lower-ranked players in this tier have greater upside than some of the higher-ranked ones. It’s a balancing act and ultimately, for this big board, I may have valued floor and expected value-for-money a bit more than ceiling. If I had to make decisions in the draft board, though, that may be different especially for teams that are still looking for primary building blocks.

Noa Essengue
Very intrigued by his skill set. Moves very well, has great length and the potential to be disruptive. They already switch him onto Guards without thinking twice. Offensively he is somewhat limited but has a solid variety to his game already. He cuts very well into space, has tons of upside in transition, can play in the post against mismatches, attack close-outs and does not shy away from contact (love the FTr). I buy into his shooting upside, too, even though he may never be great in that regard. Self-creation is limited (though showing some flashes) and his frame is not ideal but there is a lot to like overall. I can definitely see him as a Jaden McDaniels level of player, and I honestly don’t think Risacher is a better prospect (though admittedly I never thought of him as a potential #1 pick).

Carter Bryant
Resident fan here. I love his floor. Great (though not perfect) and versatile defender with a very projectable shot, and the ability and willingness to impact the game in a more limited role. His superb athleticism in space adds to the appeal (though it is not as impressive in smaller spaces), and he has shown flashes of being a good extra passer. Creation upside is a bit more limited as he is not the most naturally gifted ball handler, creative shot maker or finisher, though I do feel like he has more to offer than what he was allowed to show in Arizona (especially in terms of showing the ability to play in the midrange area). Even still, it’s not difficult to see him as an OG Anunoby type of player with a positive but natural improvement arc. A player who offers good to great defense (of course OG's level of defense is a high-end outcome), line-up versatility on defense, floor spacing and possibly tertiary scoring on offense all while not impeding on anything the team and star players want to do. Though I do acknowledge that the uncertainty and risk is greater when drafting players with smaller roles in college.

Cedric Coward
I am very intrigued by Coward. I do realize that there is an obvious risk with taking him so high, primarily because he has not played against the highest level of competition, he tended to struggle more against better teams, and for us hobby-scouts there is more limited footage than for others. So the natural question is whether what he did translates to higher levels, perhaps more so than for most other players, and I would not blame anyone for being lower on him. That being said, he is just so intriguing to me. His efficiency across the board, on good volume across the board, is practically unheard of and super impressive no matter the competition. His scoring arsenal is so diverse, too, and he just looks like a pro in that regard. Add to that his length, the good defensive markers and solid production across the boxscore, and it’s not hard to be excited about him and hope for a Jalen Williams-esque trajectory from here on out. One thing I'm looking out for is his development as a playmaker off the dribble as there's not much there yet; his shot creation for others is very basic and comes mostly from a standstill or in transition. That development matters a lot when it comes to his offensive ceiling.

Ace Bailey
I have long wrestled with his ranking. I was not the biggest fan of his when he entered college, and I still have concerns about his basketball iq and some of his skills. So there certainly is a world in which Bailey never lives up to even this ranking. At the same time, he has impressed me on defense for the most part. I wish he was a bit less stiff but there is no doubt that he can be an impactful help defender and secondary rim protector who offers some line-up flexibility. He also impressed me with his motor (as I thought it was going to be low when it turned out to be completely solid). On offense, I don’t expect stardom from him with his ball handling and playmaking limitations, in addition to shot selection concerns; but I do buy into him as a plus shooter (who can score on contested shots, too, which has value) and I do see him as an effective cutter. So I envision him as a plus player on both ends as long as you don’t have him making complex decisions and he accepts a non-primary role (third option on offense, or second scoring option next to a lower-usage primary playmaker, on a good team as a solid outcome (akin to Michael Porter Jr.).

V.J. Edgecombe
Once again, I have moved him up and down throughout the season and even now. I do buy Edgecombe as a playoff rotation player, so that is already a big hurdle to clear. I think he can be an effective defender, he obviously has tons of upside as a transition scorer, I do think he should be able to knock down enough shots from deep to not be left completely unguarded, and I do like his extra passing and upside as a tertiary or maybe even secondary playmaker if he develops nicely. That is a great foundation. Still, I definitely do not project him as a primary (or even secondary) offensive option with his ball handling limitations and limitations as a finisher in tight spaces, especially when you also consider that he is not likely to ever be a big shooting threat. Plus then you add his lack of elite size which makes it hard to project his defense to end up in the highest echelon of NBA perimeter defenders. But if he can be an improved version of GPII, or what Caruso is on that Thunder team, then that’s a really awesome player to have on your playoff team.

Collin Murray-Boyles
Perhaps one of the toughest evaluations in this draft (though I feel that about several players here). At first, I was not very high on him. Poor shooter without great size is the type of player I usually knock down hard when it comes to rankings. But he has won me over a great deal for several reasons. First, I really like his defense which I did not expect. He is strong, he is smart, he is switchable, and he creates events. He’s the type of defender NBA teams really benefit from having in the playoffs. And on offense, he strikes me as a player with a good feel for the game. He is a genuinely good passer, he can attack the rim in the post and on drives, and I buy him as a good finisher despite the non-elite size for a player with his playstyle. Now, I will admit that if he never develops a somewhat reliable jump shot, his fit on many NBA teams becomes problematic. But while I don’t project him to be a good shooter, I see him developing a basic 3pt shot as realistically attainable and in that case I do expect him to be a valuable NBA playoff rotation player.

Derik Queen
I am writing this as one of Queen’s biggest proponents throughout the season. There is something about him that makes me want to buy stock. What most intrigues me, and what separates him from most players that may resemble him at first glance, is that I think of him as someone who is potentially great at attacking the rim off the dribble. His ball handling for a big is very good, he is strong and creative, and he really understands how to draw and leverage contact. Add to this his upside as a playmaker, and he is a genuinely awesome offensive prospect as a big. He doesn’t have much of a 3pt shot yet and the form on his jump shot is a bit wonky, but he is not a non-shooter as evidenced by his FT% and his flashes in the midrange. He is a bit turnover prone at times but I think that can be worked out. On defense, I have defended him because I do see potential – especially out on the perimeter, since he is quite light on his feet when he tries. That in combination with his ability to attack from the perimeter also makes me believe he can play the 4 in addition to playing the 5 in the NBA. What holds him back is his conditioning and motor. Those need to be dramatically ramped up if he wants to ever be a core franchise player. Because as it stands, he’ll be a very clear negative on defense and that is rough for a starting big in the NBA, even when your offense is really good (though without great work ethic, I also think he’ll only be a good rather than great offensive big – which means he’d likely end up as a bench big). So the concerns are real but so is his upside if he ever starts taking the game seriously and work his butt off. I’m not sure how likely that is, which is why interviews and workouts will be very important for him, but the talent is too good to drop him too low.

Kasparas Jakucionis
Another player that grew on me a ton earlier in the season before falling again. What I loved about him was his scoring repertoire. Not only can he shoot, but he can use his size and physicality to get into the lane, draw contact and finish around the basket. He is also generally one of the more versatile scores in the lane. I like his upside as a playmaker but it’s clear that he’s not elite in that regard and the proneness to turn the ball over a ton is a concern. The question is: can he be the second best offensive player on a good team? And I think that is a possibility (though he will have to be a good shooter). If he’s not, however, then he’s not a lottery prospect. Because his defense (aside from rebounding) is just bad. Particularly his ability to get over and around screens was putrid, and he will definitely be targeted in the NBA by ball handlers in the PnR. He also really struggles to stay attached to off-ball players and contest their shots effectively, and that combination makes it tough to hide him. His size and strength offer some hope, but working his way up to just being below average on that end would already very much be a positive outcome.

Tre Johnson
I have long debated whether I am too low on him here. And I might be. Because Tre is probably the best shot-maker from 6ft out in this draft. He can score on and off the ball, which is a great asset in the NBA, and he has shown flashes of basic playmaking that would make his actions a lot more effective if it translates. So why am I comparatively low on him? Well, I’d say that in recent years, his archetype has been overdrafted and not lived up to the hype in the NBA. I have no doubts that Tre can put up 20 PPG. But can he do it at consistently high efficiency as a player who does not get to the line all that much or finish at the rim all that well? Can NBA teams justify putting the ball in his hands when he is not an advanced playmaker? How much of the offensive value he provides is given back on defense where he projects to be negative? I’m thinking of Jalen Green, for example, who puts up big numbers but just isn’t all that impactful – and yet will be paid a ton of money. That’s the concern and why I have dropped him this far, fully aware that there is a world in which his shot making and overall offense becomes so good that he turns into an All-Star level player and make this take look off in hindsight. But I’d rather bet on the median outcome of some other players at this point in time.

Jase Richardson
For a long time, I struggled with placing him and truth be told, I still am a bit. At first, I did not think too much of him. Solid player in college, but at the next level? I just wasn’t all that intrigued. After looking into him more, I can safely say that he has moved up my board, though some others still seem to be higher on him. A key reason for that is that looking at the draft, he strikes me as the player most likely to have a Brunson-like development (of course I still would not bet on that). Meaning that I can see him being the kind of player who overcomes his size limitations (in part by using his strength, but also of course his skills and craftiness) to find a way to be a an efficient and very resilient scorer with just enough playmaking, which in turn allows him to serve as an offensive hub on an NBA team. That prospect is worth a pick in this range, in my opinion. Because his scoring efficiency and volume across the board is very impressive for his age and size. That said, it’s always a risk drafting a player of his size, especially when they are neither elite playmakers nor exceptional athletes. It’s banking on everything translating and then some, which is a risk but worth it at some point in the draft.

Adou Thiero
Thiero is another one of my favorites. I absolutely love his motor and physical tools. Strong, physical, ultra athletic, and solid measurements. Very few players can put exert as much pressure on their drives and cuts as he can, and he combines it with a non-stop motor. Give him a lane and he will either dunk it on you, finish through you, or draw a foul. Over and over again. That kind of superpower is a great baseline to work with because it gives him leverage even in the NBA. Plus he can absolutely weak havoc on defense as one of the elite stocks prospects over the past few drafts. Still, I would not call him an elite defender because he relies on athleticism more than instincts and smarts, which is to be expected from someone who could always dominate with athleticism; but the tools can certainly be harnessed. I think his playmaking is fine for his position and role, too, though you’d hope for some improvement before you trust him more with the ball in his hands. The obvious swing skill is his shot. Can he reliably knock down shots in the NBA and playoffs? I don’t know. But that will likely be the key distinguishing factor between energy guy off the bench and long-term starter. Because everything else, while not necessarily polished, can be worked with. He’s not a copy of Tari Eason, to be sure, but that is probably the blueprint for his role and minutes at the next level. One other thing he has going for him: he has shown improvement every year. I like to bet on such players.

Egor Demin
Demin might epitomize the roller coaster that is this year’s draft more than anyone else (though there are several candidates). I did not think of him too highly when I watched Real Madrid play at a youth tournament but that may also have been because he was not my primary focus back then. He then popped off the screen earlier in the season with his tantalizing passing ability paired with his great size. He seemed to always make the right play, too, and the scoring game against weaker opponents while not particularly good was still decent enough. That’s when I was really high on him. Unfortunately, his struggles against better opponents really made me reconsider. His inability to handle the ball under any kind of pressure does not bode well at all for his creation upside at the next level, and the shooting indicators are just not good enough to confidently project him as at least a capable shooter. So that’s two major concerns about a player who needs to ball in his hands to be maximized. His defense should be solid which is a plus for a primary or secondary offensive player, but it’s not good enough to lift him much up if he’s less than that. I think a decent outcome for him is a Josh Giddey arc but even that’s not overly exciting. There’s a chance he ends up better but also that he ends up worse. Ultimately though, with his next level passing chops while being Forward-sized, he still belongs in this draft range for what he could be if he truly hits and the fact that those two aspects help raise his floor (as long as he can at least knock down open shots which seems doable).

THE REST

Players that I have coming up next and firmly in the first round include Thomas Sorber, Kon Knueppel, Jeremiah Fears, Asa Newell, Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton and Will Riley (I might be missing one or two others). Those are all players that I either see as solid NBA players without a ton of upside, or potentially good (though not likely great) NBA players who, however, have a relatively low floor. Khaman Maluach, Nique Clifford and Ryan Kalkbrenner are players I am somewhat less confident about but who still belong in the conversation for what they could bring to playoff teams as potential rotation players.

I haven’t watched much of the international guys and only included one in the above group in Essengue. There is a chance that someone else would make it into that top 15 if I followed them more closely. Among the players I have seen a bit of, I’d say that Traore and Saraf for me are in the group right after the top 15. For Traore that’s a steep fall considering how high I was on him last summer, but the risk of him busting is very real as far as I’m concerned; and I’m not sure the upside is indeed worth taking him in the lottery regardless. Intuitively, I’d say that Hugo González also belongs in this group but that is all based on his performances with the youth teams and therefore not anything I state with confidence.

I respect the hustle. I agree, lots of question marks. As is always the case, landing spot is going to be so important

[The-Power]

Looking at the lottery selection again, I am once again a bit more positive (not as high on this draft as very early on but definitely higher than a couple months ago). Lots of question marks, but also lots of talent. And I really do like the archetypes coming into the NBA. A lot of players with good positional size, defensive chops and projectable skills which elevates the draft even as the number of expected franchise players has gone down for me.

[The-Power]

I just noticed that I completely forgot about Fleming who I have been quite high on. As with others I could have put him a bit higher or lower depending on priorities. I thought about putting him right after CMB or right next to Thiero, but either way I'd have him in the (now) top 15.

[76ciology]

May I ask why Kneuppel is outside your top 15?

[The-Power]

May I ask why Kneuppel is outside your top 15?

Mostly due to concerns about the archetype. I still think of him as a solid NBA rotation player and thus he'd still be in my top 20. But I'm not sure if he can truly hold up in the playoffs in extended minutes. I consider him to be pretty much a single position defender or someone who needs to have the right, not too challenging, match-up. And when it comes to starters, those kind of defensive limitations are usually reserved for the main offensive hub. That is something I don't see Knueppel being – despite liking his overall offensive skill-set – and that puts a cap on his ceiling IMO.

If you are notably higher on his defense or you consider him a potentially primary or at least high level secondary offensive player, I can see why you'd rank him higher, though. Because I do like his offensive tools and I do think he competes on defense. I just have a hard time picking someone who I think is best suited to be a tertiary offensive player on a good team while not providing positive impact on defense much higher. It's for pretty much the same reason that I also have Tre Johnson lower than most or why I'd still be a bit uncomfortable with Jase Richardson in the top 10. The moment that assessment changes for either offense or defense, though, he shoots up the rankings.

[The-Power]

Part of me wonders if I still have Edgecombe a bit too high. I'm under no illusions about his offense but the ranking only makes sense if Edgecombe can be expected to be a very high-level on-ball defender with a little bit of switchability. I'm not sure whether that's indeed to be expected or I'm projecting him a bit too optimistically due to his athletic traits. Does anyone have strong feelings about his defense either way?

[EMG518]

Part of me wonders if I still have Edgecombe a bit too high. I'm under no illusions about his offense but the ranking only makes sense if Edgecombe can be expected to be a very high-level on-ball defender with a little bit of switchability. I'm not sure whether that's indeed to be expected or I'm projecting him a bit too optimistically due to his athletic traits. Does anyone have strong feelings about his defense either way?

Who is he really going to switch onto and guard at a high level at 6'5" and 190lbs.

That would be my concern about banking on elite defense at his size with a very raw offensive game.

[The-Power]

Part of me wonders if I still have Edgecombe a bit too high. I'm under no illusions about his offense but the ranking only makes sense if Edgecombe can be expected to be a very high-level on-ball defender with a little bit of switchability. I'm not sure whether that's indeed to be expected or I'm projecting him a bit too optimistically due to his athletic traits. Does anyone have strong feelings about his defense either way?

Who is he really going to switch onto and guard at a high level at 6'5" and 190lbs.

That would be my concern about banking on elite defense at his size with a very raw offensive game.

That's the question. There are players of his size that are elite on-ball defenders and somewhat switchable. Caruso is an obvious one and pretty much the gold standard. GPII is even shorter and fits that bill. But I agree that most players of that height are limited. I thought Edgecombe may be one of those few who can be an obvious plus on defense but I also view it as a concern that he might not be after all and that I overestimate his defensive prowess a bit.

[The-Power]

I'm also wondering if I've become too harsh on Knueppel. I'm not sure there's enough separation between him and Tre to have them several spots apart and I do think of him as more of a shooter. If he can be the second best offensive player on a good team, which is at least in the realm of possible, then that lifts him up a ton as his defensive limitations become less of an issue at the team level. I could rank him anywhere in the 7-16 range.