Malinhion's Final Mock Draft (updated w/ more comments)

[Malinhion]

1. CHICAGO BULLS - DERRICK ROSE
The smart money has Rose going to Chicago, since whispers indicate that the Chicago native is the Bulls' first target. But the smart money isn't so smart, is it? Think about this another way. Chicago has spend the past two drafts trying to take a big man who will score in the paint. It's the reason they dumped Tyson Chandler in the first place. They ultimately screwed this plan up by drafting and then trading Aldridge, who could have filled that role. They thought Ty Thomas was going to contribute more in line with their style. While, yes, he does get up and down the court, he's more of an Al Harrington PF than a Pau Gasol PF (the other chance the Bulls balked at). Then, last year, they took Joakim Noah. The problem is, he's a defensive player, not an offensive one. He can work well from the high post, but that role is as a facilitator. And you're taking the guy out of the high-percentage painted area when you use him in the high post a la a Brad Miller or Boris Diaw. Now Beasley falls in their lap. He's a perfect compliment to Noah, who is big, long, athletic, defensive, and a good passer. Beasley is a strong but undersized rebounder who can score at will. He is the perfect piece for their team.

Why draft Rose? He's not a "big guard" as we expected, so there are foreseeable defensive issues putting him alongside sharpshooter Ben Gordon. You have Hinrich locked up to a long-term deal. He's getting paid about what he's worth, and since its on a declining scale they Bulls have already fronted the bigger years of the contract. Drafting Rose means that Hinrich gets packaged with some other players in an attempt to get the post scoring they neglected to draft.You're going to have to package him with some of that frontcourt youth to get an impact player, and that's going to leave you with a gap in the frontcourt. The Bulls are already so heavy on guards that they won't be signing some key rotation players from the past few seasons (Duhon). Why pass on Beasley when your best frontcourt scoring options are Aaron Gray, Tyrus Thomas, Jo Noah, or Drew Gooden?

All indications seem that Rose, however, is headed to his hometown.

2. MIAMI HEAT - MICHAEL BEASLEY
Honestly, who knows what Miami wants? It doesn't even matter. Everything coming out of south Florida is a smokescreen, as usual with a Riley franchise. They will take whichever of the top two that Chicago passes on. This isn't a situation like last year where we have a clear #1, and then a few rebels saying Durant would go first for posterity's sake. We have two top players that can go in either order. I think the Heat will be content with leaving all the pressure on the Bulls and taking none of the guilt for how each player pans out.

OJ Mayo has been working out with Dwyane Wade and some other players in Chicago. While both being creators, they do seem like a good match (a jumpshooter and a slasher), but Spoelstra would have to put in some Princeton sets to get both of these guys the ball. Still, having two turnover-prone ball-dominant guards worries me. If the Heat are low on Beasley, they will have to draft him and then trade his rights after the pick. I don't see them moving lower than Minnesota, since the Wolves are probably happy with either Mayo or Beasley. If the Wolves like Love, as McHale reports today, then Miami might swap with Seattle. And the benefit of moving down might not be worth all that much if the Heat really are chasing Juice so hard. Then again, McHale gladly took on Antoine Walker from the Heat less than a year ago, so there's no telling what kind of deal Riles might pull off.

3. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - OJ MAYO
Minny most likely has these three at the top of their draft board, and will gladly take whichever falls to them. I don't think Mayo's talents were really showcased at USC. I view him as a low-risk, high-reward type of prospect. He could move into Minnesota at the 2, and shift Foye to the 1. I think Beasley and Jefferson have redundant skillsets, so even if he's on the block the Wolves may be better off with OJ. While Mayo might not be as athletic and quick as hoped, he is a very fluid player with a polished jumpshooter's skillset. Brook Lopez is rightfully falling down mocks, and while I do think his defensive prowess and size would be a good fit next to Jefferson, I think Mayo's upside (BPA) clearly outweighs Lopez' good fit (draft for position).

4. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS - JERRYD BAYLESS
The consensus used to be that the Sonics are going to go with Jerryd Bayless here. But the consensus has shifted. My opinion has not, since all indications are that Bayless' workouts have been getting better and more impressive. While I can't argue with taking such a complete point guard with an Arizona pedigree, I don't think picking up a score-first point to pair with Durant is such a good idea. However, anything to take the attention off of Kevin is probably good for the Sonics at this point. Bayless is a slasher and drew a lot of fouls last year, but he's also got NBA range on his jumper, with good lift to shoot over people at 6'3". However, I am a little worried about him being stuck between positions while going into an already-embattled point guard rotation of Watson and Ridnour. I think the Sonics have reached too much for project big men at the top of the draft in the past. They will go with a more sure thing in Bayless. I think they package one or two of their 2nd round picks with #24 to move up further in the 1st round and grab a big man like Koufos or Hibbert. There is a lot of big man talent around the end of the first round, including DeVon Hardin (Cal), Jason Thompson (Rider), Alexis Ajinca (France), Robin Lopez (Stanford), Marresse Speights (Florida), JaVale McGee (Nevada). Good scouting will get you a serviceable big man in the middle of the 2008 draft.

5. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - KEVIN LOVE
The Grizzlies will be looking to fill the void left by Pau Gasol. Some might consider this a reach, but Love's workouts have been going very well. He's a great piece for a winning franchise, but doubts as to whether he's a franchise player push him down the boards. He's a hard worker and his game is polished. He's already got range on his J and his outlet passes make me weak in the knees. Love is the complete package, and if the Grizzlies want to plug a lot of frontcourt holes at once, he's their guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see them package this pick with an arsenal of point guards in order to try and grab more picks, expiring contracts, or future 1sts.

6. NEW YORK KNICKS - ERIC GORDON
The Knicks are trying hard to move around in the draft with one hitch--nobody wants their pick, their players, or their contracts. David Lee's name eventually surfaced, but do they really want to get rid of one of their few productive pieces? Rumor has is that the Knicks like Russell Westbrook. He is climbing far too high up the draft board for me, and I'm not buying it. They just hired Mike D'Antoni. Why is Walsh going to take a defensive specialist at the 1 with questionable point guard skills? He's not.

He's going to take a guy who can be the face of the franchise pretty soon, because the Knicks need an icon to right the ship. Since I think too many teams above them like Mayo for the Knicks to make a move to nab him, they will settle for the consolation prize. And Gordon might just wind up being better than Mayo, so we'll see how this works out. I was more impressed with Gordon's ability to use his body in the post to get an open look or draw contact for an and-1. It is more NBA-tailored than Mayo's jumpshooting.

7. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - RUSSELL WESTBROOK
I originally had Gordon going here, but I think he will be picked up by the Knicks with Gallinari falling. I see the UCLA-Los Angeles connection. And the Clippers have declined to resign Livingston. They are probably giving up on him unless they can resign for $2.5-3.0 million. Their backcourt is in shambles. They could just take Westbrook, and resign Maggette. That seems like the type of think Sterling would do, if he's not gonna hit the big red button labeled "Trade Elton Brand."

8. MILWAUKEE BUCKS - JOE ALEXANDER
They have talent at every position. Murmurs are that they love Alexander. For my money he didn't show enough basketball skill during the season to go this high. He benefitted greatly from having a tremendous amount of athletecism and a tournament run. Someone made a good point about easing the communication barrier within the Bucks organization by bringing in Alexander, who lived in Taiwan (ROC), and speaks Chinese.

9. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS - ANTHONY RANDOLPH
It's worth it for the 'Cats to chase a high-risk, high-reward prospect here. J-Rich had decent production but he wasn't really the first option that they had hoped for. If Randolph can fill out and polish his game, he has the potential to lead this franchise. As they are currently constructed, this team is a defensive squad that should have the talent to make the playoffs. Pairing Randolph's blocking prowess with Okafor's defense should keep a lot of guards out of the lane. And taking some of the pressure off of Okafor should hopefully alleviate his injury issues. The problem is, like many of this year's top picks, Randolph is too young to be producing until he's off his rookie scale contract. If he pans out, Charlotte will have two bigs clogging the middle and decent scoring options on most parts of the floor. Charlotte might be able to trade down and take Randolph, as he's been all over the board.

10. NEW JERSEY NETS - DANILO GALLINARI
The problem is, most of the top-flight guys are gone by this point. I think the Nets will trade this pick. They will either move up to grab Love (a more sure thing) or Gordon (similar to Carter) if either takes a little slide. Alternatively, I could see them moving down for a more sure thing at power forward, like Darrell Arthur. There aren't many shooting guards behind Mayo and Gordon worth taking a look at for the Nets, since too many of them fit the swingman mold of Richard Jefferson. I think the Nets trade this pick to whichever team is interested on taking a flyer on a project big man. The Sixers and Kings look like the best teams to target.

However, there are strong rumors that the Nets like Gallinari. RJ trade rumors will start to swirl soon, as they do every summer. Maybe this is the summer that the Nets move him, install Gallinari, and pick up a better frontcourt contributor. They didn't have a single player log more than 20% of the team's minutes at the 5 this past season. But it looks like JO is off the board.

11. INDIANA PACERS - BROOK LOPEZ
Well, it looks like Augustin is no longer the answer for the Pacers after shipping out JO for TJ Ford. Now you know why Larry Bird looked aloof when asked why Russell Westbrook had cancelled his workout with them--bigger fish to fry. The Pacers seem to have a squad capable of getting up and down the floor pretty quickly. So maybe they'll draft a big guy who can run as well. I think Anthony Randolph is too skinny and redundant for the Pacers to take right now, but I could see that pick happening if he falls and Lopez goes to a team like Seattle. Lopez is more of the defensive anchor that they had in O'Neal but he might have similiar problems with his offensive efficiency. I think someone with a need for a big man might move up into the top-10 to take him first, though. In that event I could see them reaching for a guy like Koufos, who resembles what Krstic should be, but at least has that legit 7' height.

12. SACRAMENTO KINGS - DJ AUGUSTIN
While the Kings must have been frantic in the past trying to trade up to get the point guard they so desperately need, I see him falling now. They were probably taking a look at Darrell Arthur, who they probably could have taken at their spot or moved down for without much criticism. I still think they might take Arthur if the PG they like is off the board.

13. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - DONTE GREENE
The Blazers will be trading virtually every pick they have in order to move higher up in the lottery. I think the perfect player for them would be Westbrook, who wouldn't take the offense from Oden/Aldridge/Roy and would help anchor the perimeter D while Oden gets the interior. Westbrook should go in this range for his value, but he won't. Whoever picks in this spot, and I don't think it will be the Blazers, who seemingly own all 60 picks to go with their 25 roster players. They need to make some moves or half their team will be in the D-League next year. Maybe they take Ajinca and let him stay in europe for a few years? They might look to Brandon Rush here to get an impact player with NCAA experience. I am confused what the Blazers might take, so I'll take BPA here, which is probably what will go to whomever trades for this pick. It might be Donte Greene, Kosta Koufos, or even DeAndre Jordan.

14. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - KOSTA KOUFOS
I think the Warriors will look into a big man, since they're not impressed with the progress of project Brandon Wright. They were reportedly impressed by Koufos' measurements. He's a legit 7-footer, he can shoot, and play defense. His production was solid for a Freshman, and he might still be growing. I could also see the Warriors looking to Donte Greene from Syracuse or Anthony Randolph from LSU at this spot, if they are serious about trading Al Harrington.

15. PHOENIX SUNS - BRANDON RUSH
The Suns are on record saying they want someone who can contribute right away. There have been murmurs about Koufos, who is a great fit for their system. However, I question their ability to draft a big man when they're already paying Amare ($15m), Shaq ($20m), and Diaw ($9m) next season. That's three of their four biggest contracts. The only other guy they're paying is Nash. There are too many solid SG/SF prospects available at this point to start seeking out redundancy. Hill is on his last legs (and might not renew his PO), and Barbosa and Bell are better suited for manning the guard spots. What the Suns need is a defensive small forward who can fill part of the gap left by Shawn Marion. Rush has everything they want. Size, athletecism, an outside shot, and defense. He plays off the ball, which is good because Amare will be the new #1 option, Shaq will always demand his touches, and Nash will be the dominant playmaker. The holes in Rush's game will be covered by the Phoenix offense, because of the personnel, not the system. He has the experience to be the impact player they desire from a rookie. I really can't see the Suns going elsewhere. Budinger also plays well off the ball but he's an atrocious defender. I see Kerr being skeptical of a euro's defense like Batum, though I hear it is pretty solid.

16. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - ROY HIBBERT
This team is pretty well constructed. They have a good facilitating PG in Miller (expiring soon). Iguodala is their franchise wing guy. Dalembert shockingly actually showed some life this season, averaging 10-10-2.5, and I must say, I never saw that coming. Reggie Evans was also a decent rebounding option for them, though clearly not a franchise big man. They have decent talent at the 2-3-4, including Carney, Young, and Smith. I think the best idea for the 76ers would be to just take BPA, or a flier on one of these big guys until they can see what they have panning out.

My ideal fit for them is Roy Hibbert. He can come in without being the focus of all the attention. With Dalembert he will be a rebounding beast. They will have a nice defensive twin towers in the center, and Hibbert can get lots of hookshots in the paint. Then when Reggie expires they can just let him walk or resign him for bench player money. Hibbert is the biggest sleeper in this draft, even though everyone knows it. I have him going at the end of the lottery, but any team who gets him later should be pleasantly surprised by his instant impact and ceiling. A Georgetown center pedigree has only led to good things: Mutumbo, Mourning, Ewing. Dissing the guy because his production dropped in a system not focused on the individual is a bit shortsighted.

17. INDIANA PACERS - MARIO CHALMERS
If Brook is swiped up before their pick I think they might take his brother at this spot. Otherwise there are a hanful of available big men to pick from at this point in the draft, and the Pacers are in a good spot to get the one they like best. If they do get their man, and don't package this pick, I think they could take Kansas' Mario Chalmers to back up the injury-prone Ford.

18. WASHINGTON WIZARDS - JAVALE MCGEE
They were rumored to have liked Hibbert. He might not but should be gone by their pick. I think McGee will be much better for their style of play. He can shoot all over the court and he's big enough that he should be productive on the interior. Especially if Antawn Jamison can get 20/10 in that frontcourt.

19. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - DARRELL ARTHUR
The Cavs have a gaping hole at PF, in my opinion. They dropped Gooden for Ben Wallace, who plays a redundant positon with Z but provides no post scoring and has lost all the athletecism that made him a good defender. The Cavs were set if they could have kept Boozer alongside LeBron, so I see them trying to get a PF and recapture some of that Magic.

20. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS - ROBIN LOPEZ
The 'Cats should be thinking BPA here. Robin Lopez will go in this range. He has been climbing up the boards and I think if he is there at 20 then Charlotte takes him without hesitation. Some of his skills might clash with Okafor, but he is oft-injured.

21. NEW JERSEY NETS - MARREESE SPEIGHTS
This is a better spot for the Nets to take a big guy. They might have a promise to Gallinari, and there's not much difference between the big guys at the top and late-1st of this draft. Speights will probably go in this range. I think he is a good fit for New Jersey because he's an actual post scorer, as opposed to a jumpshooter on the interior like Krstic. He worries me because his numbers were inflated against a weak nonconference schedule and I think he is a bigger project than teams anticipate.

22. ORLANDO MAGIC - DEANDRE JORDAN
In my humble opinion, Battie isn't cutting it. I'm not sure how this will pan out in the draft, since Otis obviously disagrees even though Tony missed the entirety of last season. They might be better filling out the backcourt (with the departure of Dooling possibly imminent), but Courtney Lee is the best option right here and I don't see them taking him. Honestly, another 6'5" four-year player who can shoot the lights out? They already benched JJ Redick for the rest of his career, it seems, and they have enough shooters now. I say spend the pick on a giant question mark in DeAndre Jordan. If all he has is athletecism, he can just do the dirty work next to Dwight. If he pans out, you have the best frontcourt in the league. Since they like Battie they can bring him off the bench in spot minutes until his confidence is up. This increases the physicality of a team who has a lot of tall jumpshooters at the forward spots. Orlando is already committed to good big man coaching with Ewing...I think he could teach Jordan some fundamentals.

23. UTAH JAZZ - JASON THOMPSON
But if they keep it I see them trying to fill out the interior. Jason Thompson would be a good choice. He is pretty much a sure thing but his ceiling isn't that great. They just need someone to bang inside with Boozer when Okur is out there but struggling with his shot. I think a move like this could bring a lot of consistency to a team who should be in title contention in the West next season.

24. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS - ALEXIS AJINCA
Seattle has a lot of picks and very well may move this. I think they should sneak up a couple spots to nab the center they really like, since I think most will be drafted right before them. If they don't and decide to pick here, they could go with Courtney Lee, and fill out the backcourt with Bayless/Lee in one draft. However, this pushes Durant's transition to the PF spot up a bit too quickly. He won't have the size or physicality yet, and Jeff Green plays the 3. So they probably try to take a guy big enough to pair next to a frontcourt featuring Durant/Green. I think this is a little high to reach for Asik, Pekovic, Ibaka, or Jawai. With a lot of picks in the early 2nd maybe the Sonics look to take one of those guys there and picks a wing at this spot.

I don't know if I buy Ajinca climbing into the teens. There are too many solid prospects with more exposure to NBA franchises. And I think Bargnani and Yi are a bit too fresh in the minds of GMs.

25. HOUSTON ROCKETS - CHRIS DOUGLAS-ROBERTS
They need a contributor in the backcourt. CDR has experience on a two-time final four squad, and should be an impact guy while still on his rookie contract.

26. SAN ANTONIO SPURS - NICOLAS BATUM
San Antonio continues their long standing tradition of taking impact euro players later than they should be drafted. Though, to be honest, I'm not quite sure where Batum fits in this picture.

27. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - JJ HICKSON
None of their needs are covered at this point in the draft. Honestly, probably another pick to be packaged so that Portland can find their point guard and a decent defensive swingman to pair with Roy. So BPAish at this point, depending on who they trade it to. I like JJ Hickson from NC State, or Courtney Lee from W. Kentucky.

28. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - RYAN ANDERSON
They still need more help upfront, and there is still one domestic talent work taking a look at. I think the Grizzlies opt for another big guy from California.

29. DETROIT PISTONS - BILL WALKER
Joe Dumars knows how to get impact players. At this point in the draft, Walker will be a steal. And they'll need him if they're serious about dealing Prince.

30. BOSTON CELTICS - NATHAN JAWAI
The Celtics have a contender, so its time to take a flier on an international big man and hope you win the lottery. There are a handful available here, and I'd rather take a project on a non-guaranteed contract, but Nathan Jawai is a fringe 1st rounder and I think he sneaks in at 30.

[JimmyTD3]

14. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - KOSTA KOUFOS
I think the Warriors will look into a big man, since they're not impressed with the progress of project Brandon Wright. They were reportedly impressed by Koufos' measurements. He's a legit 7-footer, he can shoot, and play defense. His production was solid for a Freshman, and he might still be growing. I could also see the Warriors looking to Donte Greene from Syracuse or Anthony Randolph from LSU at this spot, if they are serious about trading Al Harrington.

LMAO. I stopped reading after this. After Biedrins and Monta, Wright is the Warriors most prized player. Anyone who has seen Wright play knows he oozes amazing potential.