Post#276 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:42 pm
My final big board post
This is my final big board for prospects in the 2012 NBA Draft.
The reason my lists may look surprisingly different from the ESPN, etc. lists is the following reason: I believe there is an inefficiency in the draft process related to physical tools being vastly over-weighted compared to skill and what is commonly called “feel for the game”, which is what players have when they have a natural feel for the position and the spatial awareness to be in control of where they are in relation to the other 9 players on the court. In other sports like hockey, the word “vision” also refers to this. It seems to me like the draft process orders players’ talent and upside by roughly 65-70% physical tools, 20-25% skill, and 5-10% feel for the game. My hypothesis based on observing draft results of prospects is that that giving a one third or 33% weighting to each category is a more accurate weighting. I looked closely at each player’s talent in the categories (even numerically writing them down at one point) to best as I can rank the best combinations. Thus the order I came up with may seem extremely divergent to the other big boards you will see, but I am going to trust my method here.
Another thing to remember about my order, is that this is a list with tremendous depth and not a lot of top-heavy talent in terms of star talents from 2 and down. It may seem shocking to see Thomas Robinson ranked as low as 21st, but if I had to predict a PER for him, it’d be about 15 – which is still enough for a long time contributing career. In last year’s draft he may very well have ranked top 7-10. There is value in drafting what I expect him to be, an ideal 3rd big man who rebounds and provides some athletic energy to a game. It’s just I see many relevant NBA players out of this draft.
With each player I have included stylistic similarity (simply measuring who the prospect will resemble aesthetically), statistical similarity (strictly showing what numbers I expect him to put up),and projection of whether the player will be a superstar, all-star, borderline all-star, starter, borderline starter, or bench player.
My rankings:
1. PF Anthony Davis – The value of getting a potential defensive player of the year candidate is immense. He not only has elite shotblocking length and mobility, but a supreme sense of the court and closing off angles against the opposition defensively. He may even have top 3 offensive upside in the draft – He has great hands, timing, an elite first steps and an early base of a shooting and post game. I see him landing somewhere between perennial all-star and superstar.
Stylistic similarity: Chris Bosh meets Tim Duncan
Statistical similarity: Dwight Howard
Projection: Superstar
2. SG Jeremy Lamb – Lamb is arguably the most gifted scorer in the draft, effortlessly draining points through ballhandling and shooting. His feel for the game is one of the best in the draft, making everything look easy and natural. His explosiveness and length combined with this skill should make him an impossible cover.
Stylistic similarity: Kevin Martin meets SG Kevin Durant
Statistical similarity: Reggie Miller
Projection: Borderline All-star
3. C Meyers Leonard – Leonard has a chance to be one of the most rare types of assets, a 7 foot center who can skillfully score in the post on one end and block shots on the other. He is also a very nice passer for a big man. He may be a little too soft to carry a huge volume of offensive responsible, but doesn’t have to be to be a tremendous asset in building a team.
Stylistic similarity: Lamarcus Aldridge meets Marc Gasol
Statistical similarity: Marc Gasol
Projection: Borderline All-Star
4. PG Scott Machado – Machado perhaps is the prospect in this draft who represents the weighting I talked about by draft teams. By an evaluation greatly favoring physical tools and raw scoring numbers in college he doesn’t pass the test of a lotto talent. However his spatial awareness and feel for the game is perhaps the best in the class. He simply sees angles that very few PGs in the league can, like a smaller version of Ricky Rubio’s feel of the court. He’s an A+ in the most important category for a PG, passing, ability to run a team and vision of the court. Machado can hit open shots and has a fairly quick first step, which will allow him to get into the paint off a screen. It would not surprise me if Machado puts up near league leading assist per game numbers in the NBA.
Stylistic similarity: Rajon Rondo meets Ricky Rubio
Statistical similarity: Rajon Rondo
Projection: Borderline All-star
5. PF Andrew Nicholson – Nicholson is almost inarguably the most skilled big man in his class, leading the way in the post and a shooter. His feel for the court and smoothness to his game is tremendous and plays great positional defense. His physical tools are certainly average for a PF. This guy has one of my favorite “player comparisons” in the draft and that’s David West, Nicholson seems like a match in underwhelming physical tools but tremendous skill, feel and character that makes him look like a long term starting PF to me.
Stylistic similiarity: David West meets Kevin Love
Statistical similarity: David West
Projection: Borderline All-star
6. SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Kidd-Gilchrist has terrific physical tools for a SF, between his size and explosiveness, both in the open court and from a first step perspective in the halfcourt. He plays a very cerebral game, which helps him finish so well in transition and with his physical tools make him a great defensive talent. It’s just his skill that’s lacking, he lacks shot creating ability and needs to improve his jumpshot. The best bet for “MKG” to make a long term impact is as a scorer in the low teens who dominates defensively, on the glass and in transition.
Stylistic similarity: Gerald Wallace meets Richard Jefferson
Statistical similarity: Luol Deng
Projection: Starter
7. SG Bradley Beal – Beal is the definition of a prospect who looks good in most categories, but falls something short of spectacular in any particular place. He is a well sized SG who can hit the outside shot and finish at the rim, while rebounding very well and playing solid defense. This should help him score something north of 16 points a game, but I have my doubts about the star upside of scoring guards who fit best hitting open shots off the ball.
Stylistic similarity: Jason Richardson meets Eric Gordon
Statistical similarity: Jason Richardson
Projection: Starter
8. PG Kendall Marshall – I’ve gone back and forth on Machado and Marshall for top PG in the class, both saw the floor as well as any prospect in the draft and the effectiveness of their speed in a league where it’s impossible to stay in front of any quick PG man to man, is likely be underrated. Marshall is a bigger, younger player but also a step slower than Machado and lacks his shooting. Machado also seemed to have more flair and difficulty to his passes. I expect both to be starters who make their teams better, not only with their passing, but also by helping their teammates follow their lead by making the extra pass and playing for each other.
Stylistic similarity: Andre Miller meets Ricky Rubio
Statistical similarity: Jose Calderon
Projection: Starter
9. PF Arnett Moultrie – Moultrie has a very nice blend of athletic tools and skill for a big man, with a bouncy 6’11 frame being mixed with solid skills and feel for scoring around the rim, ballhandling and shooting, which should make him an option as a pick and roll and pick and pop player. He rebounded well in college, but needs to work on his positional game defensively. Moultrie doesn’t have spectacular upside, but has the tools to be a long term upside.
Stylistic similarity: David Lee meets Mareese Speights
Statistical similarity: David Lee
Projection: Starter
10. PF Jared Sullinger – Sullinger is a player falling on draft boards because his back has been medically red flagged. Without the concern I’d have him top 6 on this list, this is as far as I’d feel comfortable letting him fall. Sullinger has a tremendous skill level and feel for the court for a big man, helping him finish shots from almost any angle around the rim and play very smart positional defense. He needs to improve his shooting game to likely transition to a more face-up game in the NBA. Physically he lacks explosiveness, but has strength, which especially helps him on the board. Sullinger won’t a star, but I expect a starter and averages north of 17 points and 9 rebounds a game due to his skill, feel and strength.
Stylistic similarity: Zach Randolph meets Carl Landry
Statistical similarity: David West
Projection: Starter
11. PF Perry Jones III – Jones III has been one of the biggest fallers in this draft due to his passivity and lack of a true position (He apparently thinks he’s a SF). At PF where I think he eventually lands, he’ll still have one of the best first steps in the league and solid guard like skills and feel for the court. He won’t have much power or defense to his game, but his combination of athleticism, skill and fluidity makes it very likely he finds his place in the league on talent alone.
Stylistic similarity: Chris Bosh meets Charlie Villaneuva
Statistical similarity: Andrea Bargnani
Projection: Starter
12. C Andre Drummond – If I’m taking Drummond I’m expecting him to do just a few things – block shots, rebound and finish lob passes, which would give him a role for a big man. I don’t see him turning around his offensive game when he is at this point so far behind every other standout offensive player in skill and feel. Drummond is likely going to prove just how far physical tools alone take a player, as he is arguably one of the 10 or 15 most physically gifted NBA prospects ever.
Stylistic similarity: Deandre Jordan meets Daryll Dawkins
Statistical similarity: Deandre Jordan
Projection: Starter/Borderline Starter
13. PF John Henson – Henson can provide a rare asset to have for a team, high end shotblocking. There is some concerns whether his energetic style leaving position to block shots lessens the impact of them and his skill level and feel for the game is lacking. He’s a player that it’s hard to justify ranking this high ranking so low in those skill and feel for the game categories, but I would be willing to take a risk at this point because of how much more valuable and rare a shotblocker at PFis than many of the types of players available here.
Stylistic similarity: Chris “The Birdman” Anderson meets Marcus Camby
Statistical similarity: Deandre Jordan
Projection: Starter/Borderline starter
14. SF Harrison Barnes – Barnes has ideal size and athleticism for a SF, though most of his game is based in finesse skill that doesn’t use his power. He’s a skilled jumpshot creator who lacks penetration ability. His smoothness and feel to his game when playing is solid, though he seems to play on an island from teammates at times. He’s a bit too in love with fadeaway or other off balance long 2 pointers. Because he is a player who will likely create a lot of shots, even if low percentage jumpshots, he’ll likely put up the raw scoring volume to start in the NBA.
Stylistic similarity: Nick Young meets John Salmons
Statistical similarity: John Salmons
Projection: Starter/Borderline starter
15. PF Royce White – White has terrific feel for the game and court vision for a PF making him a point forward on his college team – and can score around the rim. His biggest problem is he is very undersized for a PF and not skilled or quick enough to play SF. His shooting also seriously needs work. He is at risk at falling to the pitfalls of most PFs, but I am intrigued enough by his court vision for a big man being enough to find his role in the NBA.
Stylistic comparison: Boris Diaw meets Lamar Odom
Statistical comparison: Boris Diaw
Projection: Borderline starter
16. SG/SF Evan Fournier – Fournier to me seems like a player with more upside than anyone else left here. His feel for the game is terrific and has some Manu Ginobili/Brandon Roy in his shiftiness driving the ball, plus he has nice size for his position. He needs to polish his shooting game but I could see him having an impact career.
Stylistic similarity: Manu Ginobili meets Brandon roy
Statistical similarity: Rodney Stuckey
Projection: Borderline starter
17. SG Dion Waiters – Waiters has a great sense of the court which helped him rack up assists and steals, the problem is the rest of his game is a concern. He will likely struggle finishing at the rim with his size and has a middling shot. Nonetheless his ability to dribble drive and pass should make him a unique option at SG.
Stylistic similarity: James Harden meets Jason Terry
Statistical similarity: Rodney Stuckey
Projection: Borderline starter
18. PG/SG Damian Lillard – Lillard has great speed and shooting ability for a guard, but has shown little indication he has the court vision and passing to play PG instead of a SG. Most likely he will be an undersized energy SG who hits 3s in a combo guard role off the bench.
Stylistic similarity: Leandro Barbosa meets Lou Williams
Statistical similarity: Leandro Barbosa
Projection: Borderline starter
19. SG/SF Terrence Ross – Ross has terrific size and athleticism for a SG and can shoot the ball reasonably, but has a middling feel for the court and can often rush plays. With his physical tools, if he can hit 3s consistently, it is likely he has a relevant NBA career.
Stylistic similarity: Marcus Thornton meets Jason Richardson
Statistical similarity: Marcus Thornton
Projection: Borderline starter
20. SG Doron Lamb – Lamb is something of a guarantee in the NBA, between his elite 3pt shooting, ability to come off screens at midrange and overall smooth feel for the game and strong basketball IQ, he’s a great bet to spend a career hitting open shots off the ball.
Stylistic similiarity: JJ Redick meets Klay Thompson
Statistical similiarity: JJ Redick
Projection: Borderline starter
21. PF Thomas Robinson – Robinson may be the biggest beneficiary of what I believe is the over-weighting of physical tools and underweighting of skill/feel for the game in the draft. Robinson’s case is all based on his physical impact, between his strength, explosiveness and rebounding. This should help him produce in the NBA and find a long term role. His skill level is average for a PF, with a middling touch and inconsistent jumper after a few years in college. His feel for the game is very concerning as he plays like the game is moving extremely fast for, while players with great feel make it feel like it’s moving slow. I see his best role in the NBA as being a 3rd big man who’s a rebounding specialist – where he can still help teams eventually win a championship mind you.
Stylistic similarity: Kris Humphries meets Kenyon Martin
Statistical similarity: Charles Oakley
Projection: Borderline starter
22. PF/C Tyler Zeller – Zeller is a legit 7 footer with skill, the problem is he measured with a small standing reach and does not have much power in his frame. He will likely have to adjust to a more perimeter friendly game in the NBA. Nonetheless with his basketball IQ and polish he should find rotation minutes somewhere.
Stylistic comparison: Tyler Hansbrough meets Udonis Haslem
Statistical comparison: Tyler Hansbrough
Projection: Borderline Starter
23. SF Jae Crowder – Crowder is a few inches away from matching Kawhi Leonard’s skillset his rookie year in San Antonio. As a slightly undersized SF he could be at a defensive disadvantage at times, but overall is a swingman who will likely hit open shots, cut to the rim well, and use his strength to play bigger than his size on the glass and defensively as he did in college.
Stylistic similarity: Shane Battier meets Kawhi Leonard
Statistical similarity: Shane Battier
Projection: Borderline starter
24. SF Moe Harkless – Harkless has legitimate length and a solid feel for the game for a SF, but is not powerful or explosive and has a raw skill level. It will be difficult for him to start in the NBA without either a more polished skill level or a high end defensive game, both which seem unlikely with his present skills. But teams can always use long, hard working role players.
Stylistic comparison: Wilson Chandler meets Thaddeus Young
Statistical comparison: Wilson Chandler
Projection: Borderline starter
25. PF Draymond Green – Green will be one of the least physically talented players at PF in the NBA, but his good shooting and terrific basketball IQ/feel for the game should make him a niche stretch big man offensive option
Stylistic comparison: Jeff Green meets Tobias Harris
Statistical comparison: Jeff Green
Projection: Borderline starter
26. PF Terrence Jones – Jones is at risk to be yet another tweener who was not skilled enough for a SF or big enough for a PF. I believe he has the strength to play at PF in the NBA and can provide some mismatch offensive minutes, but lacks the finesse skill or feel for the game to stand out as a starter.
Stylistic comparison: Marvin Williams meets Michael Beasley
Statistical comparison Michael Beasley
Projection: Borderline starter
27. SF/PF Quincy Miller – Miller was projected as a SF coming out of high school, but I don’t see him having the speed or skill for the position. I expect his best role will be as a 4 who hits open 3s.
Stylistic comparison: Charlie Villaneuva meets Channing Frye
Statistical comparison: Michael Beasley
Projection: Bench player/Borderline starter
28. SG/SF Will Barton – Barton is a classic example of an athletic wing with not a ton of offense (He does have a solid midrange shot) – Thus it’s likely he finds a place in the NBA, but off the bench providing spot minutes somewhere.
Stylistic comparison: Thabo Sefolosha meets Rip Hamilton
Statistical comparison: Thabo Sefolosha
Projection: Bench player/Borderline starter
29. Jeff Taylor
Physical impact: 3 – Taylor is neither big nor explosive enough to get a step on NBA defenders at SF, but is a smart player who can hit an open shot.
Stylistic comparison: Mikael Pietrus meets Sonny Weems
Statistical comparison: Mikael Pietrus
Projection: Bench player/Borderline starter
30. PG/SG Marcus Denmon – Denmon is one of the best shooters in the class and plays with a high IQ. These two things should help him find a long term role in the NBA hitting open 3s.
Stylistic comparison: Daniel Gibson meets Eddie House
Statistical comparison: Daniel Gibson
Projection: Bench player/Borderline starter
Just missing the cut: PG Marquis Teague, SG John Jenkins, PG/SG Tony Wroten, Jr., SG Austin Rivers, PG/SG Tyshawn Taylor, C Fab Melo, C Festuz Ezeli
Liberate The Zoomers
