Early Season Top 70 College NBA Prospects

[jman3134]

The following is an early list of my top 70 NBA prospects. Obviously, conference play will shake up these rankings (it does every year), as some players' weaknesses will be exposed, while others will step up their games late in the season.


1. Cody Zeller, Indiana


2. Archie Goodwin, Kentucky


3. Otto Porter, Georgetown


4. Alex Len, Maryland


5. Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA

For Full List:
http://jtmbasketball.blogspot.com/2012/ ... pects.html



Questions? Comments? Criticism?

[ManualRam]

why is mclemore so low and goodwin so high? age?

otto porter is a really nice player. love his game, but i think he projects to be a high level role player. not top 3 worthy imo.

do you think i.austin will be anything more than a stretch big?

i'm still trying to figure out what mccollum is at the next level. lesser shooting steph curry with worse passing ability? jet terry? his numbers are impressive, i just don't agree that he's a top 10 talent.

i haven't yet made the swap either, but what makes mcadoo better than anthony bennett?

i think purvis will shoot back up big boards if he comes back next yr and lorenzo brown is gone.

i think if you were just ranking off of potential and not for the 2013 draft tj warren would be higher.

sean kilpatrick in the 50's?

nice talib zanna mention. he's looked great this yr. maybe he declares. reminds me of a darrell arthur/dante cunningham type.

[jman3134]

Thank you for your input, Manual.

why is mclemore so low and goodwin so high? age?

McLemore is an elite athlete and age is only one factor. I'm not sure I have formed a solid opinion on McLemore just yet, but I feel that I placed him fairly high to be conservative. In terms of his comparison with Goodwin, I think Goodwin is better at drawing fouls and getting to the line even though McLemore is also good in this area. I believe that Goodwin will only get more explosive off the dribble as his handle improves. I think this separates him as a prospect and will make him a top 5 player in this year's draft. I also think that Goodwin will be a better shooter in the NBA than McLemore.

otto porter is a really nice player. love his game, but i think he projects to be a high level role player. not top 3 worthy imo.

In this current draft, most players only project as high level role players with only a few exceptions. Otto Porter can shoot it from anywhere and is pretty dynamic scoring the basketball. He can rebound, distribute the ball, and he is good defensively. Name a better small forward in college basketball whose skillset translates to the NBA.

do you think i.austin will be anything more than a stretch big?

Yes, he is an underrated passer and may be able to provide some athleticism on tip ins etc. His frame is never going to be good enough for him to become a back to the basket big man, but he may be able to develop some semblance of a face up game. I like his overall skillset and I see the potential. (which is why I rank him high as a prospect) Personally, if I was a GM, I would shy away from him.

i'm still trying to figure out what mccollum is at the next level. lesser shooting steph curry with worse passing ability? jet terry? his numbers are impressive, i just don't agree that he's a top 10 talent.

He's a gamer and I am very high on him in this draft. I'm pretty sure that most GMs are going to agree with me and will likely ride the trend that Steph Curry and Damian Lillard have set into place. (not that that has any bearing on where he should be ranked) Right now he is having a Steph Curry-esque season and will likely make his mark in March.

As for his impact, McCollum is great shooting the ball off the dribble and makes great decisions with the ball in his hands, much like Curry.(as you said) However, I remember Steph using his spacing to create his shot and he projected more as a savvy, long range bomber. I think that McCollum has better lift on his jumper and will be able to impliment the pullup jump shot better than Curry does in the NBA. Curry's the better pure shooter without a doubt though.

I think that McCollum projects better attacking the basket (and finishing) because of his great body control and athleticism. With that said, you are right that McCollum is clearly the worse passer. Additionally, I think that McCollum is fairly underrated defensively and can cover multiple positions at this stage.

i haven't yet made the swap either, but what makes mcadoo better than anthony bennett?

That is actually a fairly good point and certainly something to consider. Bennett is far and away having the better season. McAdoo has a better physical profile, but that's about it. He might be insignificantly better on the defensive end as well. (both are not good though) I am having a hard time justifying my pick here, and I may swap them in the future depending on how McAdoo does in the ACC.

i think purvis will shoot back up big boards if he comes back next yr and lorenzo brown is gone.

There are a few players that I feel will have breakout years once other guys leave. LaQuinton Ross is on my radar and I agree with what you have said in the past about his talent. Purvis is another. These projections are only taking into consideration players' roles this year though. (and projecting their potential based on that-anything else would be too speculative for me)

i think if you were just ranking off of potential and not for the 2013 draft tj warren would be higher.

Potential is certainly a consideration though. Still I am ranking the prospects based on their performances this year and projecting their potential based on that. I believe that his offensive skillset will translate at the next level. Defensively, he has a ways to go.

sean kilpatrick in the 50's?

Higher or lower?

nice talib zanna mention. he's looked great this yr. maybe he declares. reminds me of a darrell arthur/dante cunningham type.

I really like the work he has put in. He is very strong and athletic, and has done a tremendous job on the glass this season.




On another note, do you have any thoughts on some of these other players I have on here? Fuquan Edwin? Chane Behanan? Geron Johnson? Karron Johnson? (from high school at least)

[ManualRam]

-i'm not sure how you can come to the conclusion that goodwin will be a better shooter in the NBA. mclemore already shows better form, shot selection and has shown glimpses of being able to get his picturesque shot in a number of different situations including off the bounce and catching the ball on the move. i could understand if you think goodwin is the better prospect because he's better off the bounce, but i think mclemore clearly projects to be the better shooter. i'm not crazy about goodwin's form. he's got a little slingshot effect in his shot that leads to some really bad misses. i guess i've just been more impressed with mclemore's game because it is pretty mature for a kid who was considered raw just a yr ago. i think when goodwin gets to the league he'll have much more to learn and will take longer to develop (which should be the case given the age difference). but he has a few bad habits he needs to weed out of his game, like his bad shot selection and out of control play.

-like i said, i really like porter's game and think he can be a really good role player, but i disagree about him being a dynamic scorer. i see him being able to make standstill jumpers from different spots on the floor, with the occasional face up, but i see the majority of his offense being created for him. unless he develops a dependable post game that he can utilize vs SFs i don't think he has the handle or burst to be that dynamic offensively. i see him being a station to station jump shooter, passer and cutter who looks to be active on the boards.

also, on the other end of the floor he does have really good length but i do have some concerns about his lateral quickness. he reminds me of ak47, but less athletic. the lesser athleticism makes a pretty big difference for me.

he looks like the ultimate team player, i'm just apprehensive about his lack of ball-handling ability, explosion and his average lateral quickness for the SF position. poythress doesn't have the intangibles or feel for the game, but i still think his potential is higher at the 3 because of his better straight line explosiveness and natural body strength.

-i just can't get away from the i.austin/channing frye comparison. not only does he have a bad frame, but even his style is soft. maybe that's something he can't avoid because of his build, but i just see him getting man-handled in the paint without the agility to make up for his lack of mass and strength

[ManualRam]

-mccollum's really good at shooting off the dribble, but i can't say that im impressed by his athleticism. curry's not a great athlete either, but i thought he showed tremendous passing ability, instincts and very good creativity for a kid moving to the point and that's why the transition to the point for him was very smooth. i've seen the lillard comparison, but i think damian's easily the better athlete of the 2. i don't see the explosiveness in mccollum that i saw in lillard.

-i'd put kilpatrick somewhere in the early 30's. he can shoot, is tough as nails, really digs in defensively and knows how to use his body strength to carry defenders to the rim. i just like his combination of shooting ability, ability to shoot off the bounce and defensive toughness. i think he can be a nice 3rd guard in the future.

- i can't say i've followed seton hall players closely at all. last time i saw them play was last yr and i had my eyes more so on the opposition.
-behanan's a good college player but i don't think he projects well to the next level unless he can develop some range or something, which, given his touch could be difficult. to me he's a PF all the way, but he's short for the position and lacks great length to make up for it. maybe he can be a gary trent type player, but even gary had better dimensions than chane.
-geron johnson's an interesting guy. i've tuned into a few memphis games only to be disappointed by adonis thomas, but geron has stepped up his play after a slow start. he's got good size for the point, with good, not great athleticism (has some bounce but i wouldnt consider him quick) with good body strength, but he's more of a combo guard, leaning more towards a ball-handling sg. he does a lot of things, but i can't say that he does any one thing particularly well. given his strength and athleticism, he does have some potential defensively. offensively, i'd have to see more. he reminds me a bit of jarrett jack with more shot-creating ability. hopefully he keeps his nose clean. he could be the 2nd ball-handler that that team sorely needs.
-haven't heard the name karron johnson in a couple of yrs. i can't say i've followed up on him since i don't track juco or division II ball.

[jman3134]

-i'm not sure how you can come to the conclusion that goodwin will be a better shooter in the NBA. mclemore already shows better form, shot selection and has shown glimpses of being able to get his picturesque shot in a number of different situations including off the bounce and catching the ball on the move. i could understand if you think goodwin is the better prospect because he's better off the bounce, but i think mclemore clearly projects to be the better shooter. i'm not crazy about goodwin's form. he's got a little slingshot effect in his shot that leads to some really bad misses. i guess i've just been more impressed with mclemore's game because it is pretty mature for a kid who was considered raw just a yr ago. i think when goodwin gets to the league he'll have much more to learn and will take longer to develop (which should be the case given the age difference). but he has a few bad habits he needs to weed out of his game, like his bad shot selection and out of control play.

Well, it really does not have much of a basis aside from the age difference. As I had mentioned earlier, McLemore is someone I had only seen in limited action. His shooting form does appear to be much better than Goodwin's. Goodwin is better off the bounce with a better handle and is also younger.

Addressing your comment in bold, Goodwin is less advanced in his development and already is showing more potential imo. McLemore might have a better vertical, but I think Goodwin is more explosive and has the better handle. He'll be able to penetrate at the next level better. McLemore has the better stroke as you suggested.

-like i said, i really like porter's game and think he can be a really good role player, but i disagree about him being a dynamic scorer. i see him being able to make standstill jumpers from different spots on the floor, with the occasional face up, but i see the majority of his offense being created for him. unless he develops a dependable post game that he can utilize vs SFs i don't think he has the handle or burst to be that dynamic offensively. i see him being a station to station jump shooter, passer and cutter who looks to be active on the boards.

also, on the other end of the floor he does have really good length but i do have some concerns about his lateral quickness. he reminds me of ak47, but less athletic. the lesser athleticism makes a pretty big difference for me.

he looks like the ultimate team player, i'm just apprehensive about his lack of ball-handling ability, explosion and his average lateral quickness for the SF position. poythress doesn't have the intangibles or feel for the game, but i still think his potential is higher at the 3 because of his better straight line explosiveness and natural body strength.

-i just can't get away from the i.austin/channing frye comparison. not only does he have a bad frame, but even his style is soft. maybe that's something he can't avoid because of his build, but i just see him getting man-handled in the paint without the agility to make up for his lack of mass and strength

You are describing how he currently functions in the Georgetown offense. I think that he will be able to replicate his production at the next level. He's tall, long and has a decent presence defensively. He'll continue to get stronger to defend post ups. His handle is a little better than you are giving him credit for imo. I think we see less of it simply because of Georgetown's system. His first step is not incredibly explosive, but he is serviceable enough off the dribble to get his own shot off of a pullup etc.

What makes you think that Poythress has a better shot at playing the three? He has a worse stroke and scores most of his baskets close to the rim overpowering his man. His straight line explosiveness is irrelevant because he does not have the handle to utilize it. I was impressed with his good lateral speed though from watching tape. (Poythress that is)

Yeah, I am not crazy about Austin even though he does have a decent feel for the game. I see where the potential comes in, but I am not sure he will be able to actualize it. He's high on my board because of his upside. If I were to amend this list, I would put him 9th and move Noel up in particular.

-mccollum's really good at shooting off the dribble, but i can't say that im impressed by his athleticism. curry's not a great athlete either, but i thought he showed tremendous passing ability, instincts and very good creativity for a kid moving to the point and that's why the transition to the point for him was very smooth. i've seen the lillard comparison, but i think damian's easily the better athlete of the 2. i don't see the explosiveness in mccollum that i saw in lillard.

I don't see why. He has decent hangtime and is good finishing around the rim. Curry is the better passer without a doubt. Lillard is a better athlete, but that does not really take away from McCollum's game imo. He's an elite pullup shooter and he'll be able to translate this part of his game to the NBA.

-i'd put kilpatrick somewhere in the early 30's. he can shoot, is tough as nails, really digs in defensively and knows how to use his body strength to carry defenders to the rim. i just like his combination of shooting ability, ability to shoot off the bounce and defensive toughness. i think he can be a nice 3rd guard in the future.

I actually really like Kilpatrick and I probably underrated him on my list. I'm not sure about his athleticism translating at the next level, but he does have a clearly defined role which he is very good at. I have seen him struggle against athletic defenders at times, and I guess this list was an immediate reaction to that.

-behanan's a good college player but i don't think he projects well to the next level unless he can develop some range or something, which, given his touch could be difficult. to me he's a PF all the way, but he's short for the position and lacks great length to make up for it. maybe he can be a gary trent type player, but even gary had better dimensions than chane.

I agree that the development of his outside shooting will be key. Still, I would not want to overlook him given his gritty play.

-geron johnson's an interesting guy. i've tuned into a few memphis games only to be disappointed by adonis thomas, but geron has stepped up his play after a slow start. he's got good size for the point, with good, not great athleticism (has some bounce but i wouldnt consider him quick) with good body strength, but he's more of a combo guard, leaning more towards a ball-handling sg. he does a lot of things, but i can't say that he does any one thing particularly well. given his strength and athleticism, he does have some potential defensively. offensively, i'd have to see more. he reminds me a bit of jarrett jack with more shot-creating ability. hopefully he keeps his nose clean. he could be the 2nd ball-handler that that team sorely needs.

I really like his potential to lock down opposing point guards. Then he can play off the ball on offense.

-haven't heard the name karron johnson in a couple of yrs. i can't say i've followed up on him since i don't track juco or division II ball.

Fair enough. I'm hoping to get a few scouting reports done for some of these non-D1 guys. If you care, I'll keep you in the loop. As of last season, Johnson was just as raw as he was in high school. He had no semblance of a back to the basket game and relied predominantly on his athleticism and quickness to score over his man. He has made some considerable improvements this year, so I am anxious to see him in action.

So far, the top players outside of D1 from what I have scouted appear to be AJ Matthews of Farmingdale St., Karron Johnson of Shaw University, Marcus Goode of Benedict College, and Nick Novak of Pitt-Johnstown.

[Dr Positivity]

Austin and Donatas Motiejunas really seem like the exact same guy to me (though I think Donatas will have a solid career so that's not an insult)

[ManualRam]

like i said in another goodwin/mclemore comparison post, mclemore has a very high ceiling too, but i like his chances of getting closer to his more than i like goodwin's, mainly because mclemore currently has very few if any bad tendencies in his game and looks like he gets the team concept right now. he can be as effective in the halfcourt as he is in the open court. he has the type of game to fit with any personnel since he's not ball-dominant. he just looks like he has the better overall floor game. i get that people think that better ball-handling = higher potential, but you can't ignore the other aspects of the game. for instance, goodwin might be better slashing off the dribble, but i think mclemore is the better decision maker off of PnR (he gets his picks off of curls).

porter is long with good instincts, so he'll be able to play off of quicker SFs and still recover, but i'm just not impressed by his quickness both laterally and in straight lines. i'd be less concerned if he had a stronger build that would enable him to steer ball-handlers or push them off their line should they get a step on him, but he doesn't have that either. i still do think that he can be a sound defender who'll contribute in the B/S categories, but I also see him getting beat off the dribble.

if you haven't, cue up the DX scouting report vid and fast forward to the ball-handling portion. dribbling laterally for pull ups or maybe attacking from the midpost i can see, but anything beyond that looks iffy given his handle and explosiveness.

from a technical standpoint, poythress' shot looks better. it's more balanced, less moving parts and shorter stroke. it looks like a more repeatable shot with no changes in release point. he hasn't shot many 3's, but he does show promise in that area, hitting them at a 46% clip. it's an area of his game that he'll have to get more comfortable with, but he has shown progress.

poythress doesn't need a great handle to take advantage of his straight line explosiveness since he only needs 1 or 2 dribbles from the perimeter. what he needs is a good enough shot to be played honestly, because he already has the explosiveness and strength to get his shoulder past his man and keep his defender on his hip.

i don't know what else to say about mccollum. he looks like a ball-dominant jump shooter to me without the playmaking ability to be ball-dominant at the next level. can he explode past NBA defenders who are playing him for the jump shot? lillard has that ability, plus the body strength to play to contact. cj doesn't look like he has that ability. IMO, he projects to be a jumpshooting 6th man/ 3rd guard, capable of getting shots off of ball screens.

[ManualRam]

Austin and Donatas Motiejunas really seem like the exact same guy to me (though I think Donatas will have a solid career so that's not an insult)

motie has the agility and quickness that austin lacks