puppa_bear's 2017 Mock

[puppa bear]

So I'm just going to put out my current lotto mock. I have taken the standings using the CARMELO-based projections from 538.com, ignoring any possible lotto-based changes and given Heat the last place in their tie (with Mavs, Magic, 76ers). All other ties I've gone with the order given by 538.com.

1. Celtics - Fultz
They take the BPA, and while there is some redundancy with IT there isn't anyone else on the board at a position of need for the Celtics - that will come next year with Bamba/Ayton.

2. Lakers - Ball
Their could be a case for DSJ or JJ here, but Ball is a hometown boy that could end up being a huge star for LA, and his style of play will help bring comparisons to he Showtime Lakers. I think he can coexists best with D'Lo and Ingram, making a potentially great backcourt/wing trio.

3. Pelicans - DSJ
JJ will also be a temptation here, but unless they are certain of resigning Holiday is the best move for them, it would be better for them to pair Hield with DSJ and see what might come from a heavy dose of Smith-Davis PnR.

4. Suns - JJ
This is a hard position for the Suns to be in, as JJ is clearly the best talent left on the board (he could have gone 2 or 3), but Isaac is a much better fit for he group they have currently assembled. I'm a big believer in only bringing fit into the conversation when comparing prospects from the same tier, and I have Isaac on the tier below JJ.

5. Mavericks - Ntilikana
Mavs have to be hoping that either they climb or one of those top-3 PGs falls, as that is their best fit. Having said that I have all 3 gone, and JJ off the board as well, so now it becomes a discussion between Isaac, Ntilikana, Tatum, Markkanen, Monk and Fox. I have given the nod to Ntilikana as I think he has the best chance of being a top-level talent that can work with the long-term pieces they have already put in place.

6. Magic - Tatum
Magic have a clear need at SF and that puts the discussion squarely as a Tatum versus Isaac. To me Isaac has a much higher ceiling, and the potential to be one of the top-3 in a loaded draft class. However, Magic will look also at who will have the more immediate impact - which is Tatum. Tatum is ready to play now on a potential PO team, and that will be the goal for the Magic next year.

7. 76ers - Monk
If Hinkie was still in charge then I would have Isaac here as he has the biggest upside of anyone left on the board. However he's not, and Colangelo will be looking to fit the last few pieces together. Monk adds a dynamic backcourt piece that they are missing, but one that will still enable the ball to be in Simmons hands.

8. Heat - Isaac
As I've said a number of times he's the best left on the board, and I can actually see him slipping another spot and the Heat drafting Markkanen instead. Both players will add something at the PF spot next to Whiteside, and both elevate some of the shooting issues that comes with starting Winslow. However I gave Isaac the nod for the Heat as he is much more in the Battier/Johnson mould as a SF who can play PF - which is the ideal for Spo's position-less basketball.

9. Timberwolves - Markkanen
Fox is a temptation here to replace Rubio, but with Dunn and Jones already in the wings it makes more sense to add a long-term backcourt partner for KAT. Markkanen will space the floor much better for KAT than Dieng does, and make those driving lanes more accessible, for him, Wiggins, LaVine and Rubio.

10. Kings - Fox
Fox is he best left on the bird, and the Kings have wasted too many picks trying to be cute & going for fit. Fox does actually provide a longterm answer at the PG position, and will bring a lot of what they were hoping for from the PG spot when they signed Rondo last season.

11. Knicks - Bridges
Honestly this is possibly the worst place for the Knicks to finish - they need to tank harder if they are going to miss the PO (which they will), and get into the top 10 at least, if not top-8. Unfortunately most of the best options left all play PF (Leaf, Rabb, Giles), so unless they fit perfectly with Porzingis it's a redundant pick. So Bridges becomes what I see as an obvious fit.

12. Trail Blazers - Giles
Drafting Giles this late has nothing but upside, even if he doesn't get all of his explosiveness back he is still the best left on the board. Leaf and Rabb should both get a long look-in here, and I wouldn't be surprised if either is taken in Giles' place.

13. Bucks - Leaf
The Bucks get one last chance to add to their young core with a lotto pick here, and they do so in a great way. Leaf will help add shooting from the post and will work well with their existing longterm post players.

14. Pacers - Rabb
He's the best player left on the board, and while Bam & OG will get some look-in here, it should be Rabb. Rabb and Turner will form an explosive and athletic front court that will help build their future.

Note: I actually see Bulls missing the PO and Bucks squeaking in. If that's the case I still have Leaf and Rabb as the last two picks - irrespective of order I see Rabb going to the Pacers and Leaf going to the Bulls. I know there is some duplication with Mirotic, but they need to take the best player available and move forward in the thought that their wing rotation is locked up with Wade/Butler. No PG left is worth taking over Leaf and the possible Cs are not going to be a better fit than RoLo.

[Bar Fight]

Except the Nets don't have their pick.

[Damkac]

You should separate prospects names and your comments. It would be easier to read.

[MrClass]

1. Nets - Fultz They take the BPA, and even though Lin is one of their few possible positives going forward you don't go for fit with the 1st pick.

i dont think so

[puppa bear]

Except the Nets don't have their pick.

1. Nets - Fultz They take the BPA, and even though Lin is one of their few possible positives going forward you don't go for fit with the 1st pick.

i dont think so

Edited to account for my brain fart - some serious deep level ingrained Celtics hate coming out there

I don't think I've missed any other trades there (the Kings pick is top-10 protected if I remember correctly). If I have please let me know.

You should separate prospects names and your comments. It would be easier to read.

Done, hope it's more aesthetically pleasing now

[DayofMourning]

Except the Nets don't have their pick.

1. Nets - Fultz They take the BPA, and even though Lin is one of their few possible positives going forward you don't go for fit with the 1st pick.

i dont think so

Edited to account for my brain fart - some serious deep level ingrained Celtics hate coming out there

I don't think I've missed any other trades there (the Kings pick is top-10 protected if I remember correctly). If I have please let me know.

You should separate prospects names and your comments. It would be easier to read.

Done, hope it's more aesthetically pleasing now

Its been a month. Time for an update, pb.

[puppa bear]

Except the Nets don't have their pick.

1. Nets - Fultz They take the BPA, and even though Lin is one of their few possible positives going forward you don't go for fit with the 1st pick.

i dont think so

Edited to account for my brain fart - some serious deep level ingrained Celtics hate coming out there

I don't think I've missed any other trades there (the Kings pick is top-10 protected if I remember correctly). If I have please let me know.

You should separate prospects names and your comments. It would be easier to read.

Done, hope it's more aesthetically pleasing now

Its been a month. Time for an update, pb.

Haha, was working on an ASB version, then the Boogie trade happened & I thought it might be better to wait until after the deadline. There will be one coming out very soon

[puppa bear]

Updated mock, based on fivethirtyeight projected records, as of Feb 26th

1. Celtics - Fultz
They take the BPA, and while there is some redundancy with IT there isn't anyone else on the board at a position of need for the Celtics - that will come next year with Bamba/Ayton.

2. Suns - Ball
Their could be a case for DSJ or JJ here, but Ball brings shades of Kidd and Nash to the table & will help convince them that Bledsoe is not the way forward, unless he's a complementary piece. There is a safer, for based option of Isaac, but I me that's a short-term decision & they are better served to See if they can get something for one of their guards from one of the teams that miss out on the PGs from this crop. They can also ride another rough year next season and be in the Ayton/Bamba sweepstakes.

3. Lakers - DSJ
JJ just doesn't fit the crew they are assembling, and I think Isaac is still a reach here. DSJ & D'Lo may not be ideal backcourt mates, but there is too much talent and potential in a DSJ/D'Lo/Ingram wing rotation to not explore it. This group is then a premier defensive C prospect away from completing their rebuild ...

4. Magic - JJ
JJ is clearly the best talent left on the board (he could have gone 2 or 3), and his fit with Fournier would be interesting, but on a plus side it forces the Magic to move Gordon to the PF position, which might provide the best longterm fit.

5. Kings - Isaac
If the Pelicans pick actually stays here then the Kings side of the trade looks a lot better, especially if they end up getting their own pick back. For me this is a toss-up between Tatum & Isaac, but I think the ceiling of the latter is slightly higher. Either way, I don't think the Kings can go wrong.

6. Wolves - Tatum
Wolves would have probably preferred the Kings take Tatum, as Isaac is a better fit with their core of LaVine/Wiggins/KAT. However, they can't not take Tatum if he's the left-over of the top-6.

7. Sixers - Monk
Honestly I can see a case for either Monk, Fox or Ntilikana here. I think scoring from the backcourt is a more important element here, and Monk provides that in spades and playing now next to Simmons his lack of playmaking as a PG won't be an issue.

8. Knicks - Ntilikana
Knicks have a simple need to put the best pieces in place with Porzingas. At this point in the draft Ntilikana is possibly the safest bet, and none of the prospects really have a higher ceiling. This is the no-lose pick for them here.

9. Mavs - Fox
Fox is possibly the best left on the board, and being a PG he fits the needs of the Mavs. This is a pick that could be a trade target, or possibly a place for Markkanen (as a Dirk replacement), but I think the PG fit is more important here.

10. Kings - Bridges
Their pick should rise to at least this point, and they should end up keeping it as well. Having them take a high upside PF I then have them taking a SF here. Adding Hield/Bridges/Isaac to their future stock, and WCS & Skal getting the minutes they need to develop without Boogie, gives them a great platform for the future.

11. Bucks - Patton
This is a hard one for me, as I think Markkanen is the better player here, and Giles has crazy upside, but the fit with Markkanen isn't really the best unless they think he can play the 5 full time, and they already have Parker with risky knees. Patton fits a need for a back-up C with Monroe likely being gone in FA.

12. Hornets - Markkanen
Lauri could go as high as 6, and I think this is about his floor, but I can see the Hornets gambling on Giles - he would a huge risk-reward pick here, and could end up being one of the top-5 players from the draft if his knees stay healthy. But, Markkanen is the surer thing, and if they are picking here they'll take the guy who will get them back in the PO quickest.

13. Blazers - Leaf
I can't see the Blazers taking the risk with Giles, given their experience with knees. Leaf's shooting will be the thing that brings him to the top of their list, and will be a great complement to their dynamic backcourt.

14. Pacers - Williams
This is a tough pick for me, as Hartenstein, Rabb, Williams, Collins, Bam & OG will get some look-in here, unless Pacers look at SGs and check out Bacon and Ferguson. I ultimately see this pick as part of a trade for a vet that convinces PG that they are serious about winning on his timeline. Assuming this is the driving idea then fit is important and the biggest holes I see are SG & PF, but the quality at PF is much deeper. I've gone with Williams as he may be the most ready to play behind Young/Turner, but the tourney will have a huge say in who goes when in this group.