Billy King's Tiered Rankings (Ceiling & Floor)

[BillyKingGM]

Ceiling based

Tier 1
Markelle Fultz
Josh Jackson
Dennis Smith Jr
Isaiah Hartenstein

Tier 1.5
Lonzo Ball

Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac
Jason Tatum
Justin Patton
Frank Ntilikina
Pasecnicks
Donovan Mitchell
Alpha Kaba
OG

Tier 3
Malik Monk
Miles Bridges
Harry Giles
Kurucs
Blossomgame
Josh Hart
Jonathon Motley
TJ leaf
Jason Collins
Ivan Rabb

Everyone else has role player upside at best.

[hr]

Floor based

Tier 1
Markelle Fultz
Josh Jackson


Tier 2
Lonzo Ball
Jonathon Isaac
Jason Tatum
Frank Ntilikina

Tier 3
Malik Monk
Josh Hart
Jonathon Motley
Everyone else I listed above, except giles, pasecnicks, Kaba who don't even have role player floors.

[CalL]

Ceiling based

Tier 1
Markelle Fultz
Josh Jackson
Dennis Smith Jr
Isaiah Hartenstein

Tier 1.5
Lonzo Ball

Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac
Jason Tatum
Justin Patton
Frank Ntilikina
Pasecnicks
Donovan Mitchell
Alpha Kaba
OG

Tier 3
Malik Monk
Miles Bridges
Harry Giles
Kurucs
Blossomgame
Josh Hart
Jonathon Motley
TJ leaf
Jason Collins
Ivan Rabb

Everyone else has role player upside at best.

[hr]

Floor based

Tier 1
Markelle Fultz
Josh Jackson


Tier 2
Lonzo Ball
Jonathon Isaac
Jason Tatum
Frank Ntilikina

Tier 3
Malik Monk
Josh Hart
Jonathon Motley
Everyone else I listed above, except giles, pasecnicks, Kaba who don't even have role player floors.

I think i have asked you that before, so i apologize beforehand, but could you maybe explain why you are so high on Hartenstein?
I think we agree that he wouldnt be able to play in the league right away? Should he wait one more year before declaring?

[BillyKingGM]

I think i have asked you that before, so i apologize beforehand, but could you maybe explain why you are so high on Hartenstein?
I think we agree that he wouldnt be able to play in the league right away? Should he wait one more year before declaring?

Hartenstein has the rare combination of skills size and athleticism that gives him a Karl Anthony-Towns like ceiling. There's no one else in this draft class that checks every single potential box like he does. I'm not sold on his ability to reach that point though, but there's no way someone like Patton or Williams or Giles or Markkanen is ever going to reach those levels. I don't know if he should wait a year before declaring but I do agree that he is a bit away from playing in the NBA. I think if he had gone to a top tier school in the NCAA he would go a lot higher.

[CptCrunch]

How much of Kaba, Blossomgame. and other lesser known prospects do you actually watch?

What makes a soon to be 24 year old rookie Josh Hart as good as Malik Monk or Ivan Rabb or a gimped Harry Giles?

[The-Power]

Ceiling based
[...]
Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac

[...]

Floor based

Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac

This one surprised me as I'm on the opposite side (note: even though he's in tier 2 for both, Isaac ranks 4th in floor and 6th in ceiling on your list). Isaac, in my eyes, has one of the highest ceilings in the entire draft (top 3-ish but 6th isn't unreasonable although I wouldn't put him in a different tier than anyone unless you're really high on Fultz and have him on a tier on his own) but his floor is nothing special (although I expect him to be good defensively) unless you already imply that he's undoubtedly going to improve in some important areas - but then I wouldn't call it his floor. Isaac's floor is a defensive role player who can hit open jumpers.

Not agreeing with some other players either, e.g.: Markkanen not somewhere on the ceiling list, Motley on it, Giles in tier 3 (his ceiling is still way higher if you decide to include him, his floor is just extremely low at this point), TJ Leaf on the ceiling but not the floor list (I'd say his floor is higher than his ceiling but I'm not as high on his upside as some others might be and like his floor more relatively speaking), Dennis Smith Jr. in the first tier in terms of ceiling, Jarrett Allen not somewhere on the ceiling list, Blossomgame on the other hand on it and Luke Kennard looks like he'll be a definite role player in the league. I probably missed and/or disagree at least somewhat on some others as well.

I don't really feel comfortable ranking the European prospects aside from Ntilikina whom I watched a lot, so I'll refrain from commenting on them. Anyway, anything that potentially starts a discussion is good so I'll appreciate the effort and it's only natural to disagree on prospects and ceilings/floors at this point in the players' careers.

[CalL]

I think i have asked you that before, so i apologize beforehand, but could you maybe explain why you are so high on Hartenstein?
I think we agree that he wouldnt be able to play in the league right away? Should he wait one more year before declaring?

Hartenstein has the rare combination of skills size and athleticism that gives him a Karl Anthony-Towns like ceiling. There's no one else in this draft class that checks every single potential box like he does. I'm not sold on his ability to reach that point though, but there's no way someone like Patton or Williams or Giles or Markkanen is ever going to reach those levels. I don't know if he should wait a year before declaring but I do agree that he is a bit away from playing in the NBA. I think if he had gone to a top tier school in the NCAA he would go a lot higher.

I agree that Hartenstein migh have the heighest ceiling of all the big guys in this draft (although i probably havent seen enough of most of those guys, except for Markkanen, to make that call), i also agree that he has (probably) a heigher ceiling than Markkanen. I also agree that his movements remind me very much of KAT and i think most people on here dont realize how athletic he is (part of the reason might be that he often shies away from contact, in my opinion mostly because he was out with injury for most of 2016 and doesnt want to risk another serious injury so close to the draft) and i cant understand why some people compare him to someone like Marc Gasol.

Here is what i dont agree on:
By claiming that he is among the 4 guys with the heighest ceiling in this draft, you are basically saying that he has all-star potential, considering the depth of this draft and the talent-level of the top 6/7 guys (Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Smith, Ntilikina, Isaac, Tatum). I dont see that, considering his offensive limitations. If you have such a "poor" offensive game, then you need to play like Gobert defensively to even have a chance to be in the mix for a spot in the all-star game. Thats a very long way for him to say the least ... (i honestly cant see him getting there, considering that he will never have the freakish physical tools that Gobert has).

[BillyKingGM]

How much of Kaba, Blossomgame. and other lesser known prospects do you actually watch?

What makes a soon to be 24 year old rookie Josh Hart as good as Malik Monk or Ivan Rabb or a gimped Harry Giles?

I think Rabb and Giles are both going to be pretty **** in the NBA. Josh Hart on the other hand I think is going to be an effective 6th man type in the NBA now that his skillset has really rounded out well, bringing it on both ends of the court. I HIGHLY value two way players and highly developed skillsets, I also place a lot of emphasis on the fact that he has produced every year in the NCAA. He's not like Buddy Hield who just exploded when he was older than everyone else, he put up numbers when he was Monks age too. Not the same amount, but he developed well into a good player. I think Monk might have a bit better of a ceiling than Hart, being a bit better at this point in his development, but it's still a gamble that he ever becomes the player that Hart currently is, so that makes me like him less.

I've watched enough Kaba youtube to find him to be one of the more appealing prospects at the 5 in this draft. I've watched quite a bit of Blossomgame and he reminds me of Rudy Gay.

[BillyKingGM]

I think i have asked you that before, so i apologize beforehand, but could you maybe explain why you are so high on Hartenstein?
I think we agree that he wouldnt be able to play in the league right away? Should he wait one more year before declaring?

Hartenstein has the rare combination of skills size and athleticism that gives him a Karl Anthony-Towns like ceiling. There's no one else in this draft class that checks every single potential box like he does. I'm not sold on his ability to reach that point though, but there's no way someone like Patton or Williams or Giles or Markkanen is ever going to reach those levels. I don't know if he should wait a year before declaring but I do agree that he is a bit away from playing in the NBA. I think if he had gone to a top tier school in the NCAA he would go a lot higher.

I agree that Hartenstein migh have the heighest ceiling of all the big guys in this draft (although i probably havent seen enough of most of those guys, except for Markkanen, to make that call), i also agree that he has (probably) a heigher ceiling than Markkanen. I also agree that his movements remind me very much of KAT and i think most people on here dont realize how athletic he is (part of the reason might be that he often shies away from contact, in my opinion mostly because he was out with injury for most of 2016 and doesnt want to risk another serious injury so close to the draft) and i cant understand why some people compare him to someone like Marc Gasol.

Here is what i dont agree on:
By claiming that he is among the 4 guys with the heighest ceiling in this draft, you are basically saying that he has all-star potential, considering the depth of this draft and the talent-level of the top 6/7 guys (Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Smith, Ntilikina, Isaac, Tatum). I dont see that, considering his offensive limitations. If you have such a "poor" offensive game, then you need to play like Gobert defensively to even have a chance to be in the mix for a spot in the all-star game. Thats a very long way for him to say the least ... (i honestly cant see him getting there, considering that he will never have the freakish physical tools that Gobert has).

I guess we disagree about Hartenstein's offensive ceiling then. I don't think he's gonna play defense anywhere close to Gobert in the NBA, but he looks light years ahead of him on offense to me. Gobert shoots air balls at 13 feet, Hartenstein and make 3s, and moves really well without the ball. He even has the ability to attack closeouts from some of the slower footed players that he will be matched up against at the 4 and 5 in the NBA. He can set screens really well... He's a way more athletic Zubac to me, and I really like Zubac.

[BillyKingGM]

Ceiling based
[...]
Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac

[...]

Floor based

Tier 2
Jonathon Isaac

This one surprised me as I'm on the opposite side (note: even though he's in tier 2 for both, Isaac ranks 4th in floor and 6th in ceiling on your list). Isaac, in my eyes, has one of the highest ceilings in the entire draft (top 3-ish but 6th isn't unreasonable although I wouldn't put him in a different tier than anyone unless you're really high on Fultz and have him on a tier on his own) but his floor is nothing special (although I expect him to be good defensively) unless you already imply that he's undoubtedly going to improve in some important areas - but then I wouldn't call it his floor. Isaac's floor is a defensive role player who can hit open jumpers.

Not agreeing with some other players either, e.g.: Markkanen not somewhere on the ceiling list, Motley on it, Giles in tier 3 (his ceiling is still way higher if you decide to include him, his floor is just extremely low at this point), TJ Leaf on the ceiling but not the floor list (I'd say his floor is higher than his ceiling but I'm not as high on his upside as some others might be and like his floor more relatively speaking), Dennis Smith Jr. in the first tier in terms of ceiling, Jarrett Allen not somewhere on the ceiling list, Blossomgame on the other hand on it and Luke Kennard looks like he'll be a definite role player in the league. I probably missed and/or disagree at least somewhat on some others as well.

I don't really feel comfortable ranking the European prospects aside from Ntilikina whom I watched a lot, so I'll refrain from commenting on them. Anyway, anything that potentially starts a discussion is good so I'll appreciate the effort and it's only natural to disagree on prospects and ceilings/floors at this point in the players' careers.

On Isaac:
I think Isaac is going to be a good starter that plays a very defined role at the next level. If his shooting is real, he's going to end up being a Serge Ibaka type player and level of impact, which is great to get at where you'll get him in the draft. I think if his shooting doesn't translate, he doesn't bring any other skills on offense that he could actually bust pretty bad in the NBA and end up a roleplayer. Maybe I should drop him to tier 3 floor... thanks

On Markannen:
I don't like him at all on the ceiling list. If I had a 4th tier for "be in the nba for a long time" he would be at the top of the list. His size and shooting means he will be in the NBA until he is 35. However he looks **** lost doing anything else on either side of the floor. The dirk comparisons are nuts in my opinion. I guess... if he turns out 100% and maxes out every positive skill he has shown in NCAA so far... he could turn into Ryan Anderson.

On Motley, Giles, Leaf:
Giles is done, maybe he heals up and becomes a solid role player, but he looks full Oden at this point to me. Motley is really, really underrated in my opinion. I don't like Leaf at all, but I acknowledge the potential he has to fill an important role in the league.

On Kennard, Allen:
Yes, these are two players I both missed when making these rankings while on my phone off the top of my head for fun. I've expressed before on this site that I really like Kennard, I don't know how effective he will be on a good team he is too ball dominant, but he could put up really good numbers on a team like Sacramento. Allen, should definitely be in the ceiling list as well, I'd put him in Tier 2. He could become better than Isaac, and has a real possibility to be the best center prospect in this class.

On DSJ:
Dennis Smith Jr. is my guy. I really think he is the perfect point guard you want in today's NBA. People taking Lonzo Ball over him is nuts to me. The only concerns I have about him is his attitude and those are nil. If I'm sitting at 4-5 and DSJ drops to me I take him over Tatum et al every single time. The only player I'd consider over DSJ would be Isaac, and thats only if my team already has a point guard and needs an Ibaka type player.

Thank you everyone for all your comments and discussion!